/Invitational 11: Pick your Poison 5 (Game Over)

[DrippingGoofball]

That's a plan.

Vote: Roleblocker

[Zorblag]

@DrippingGoofball, the timing of this do be most inconvenient and, frankly, irritating. The town be having enough trouble coming to a consensus without people throwing deliberate monkey wrenches in the system like that and we be most close to a deadline. Further, for your reaction hunting you seem to be assuming that there no be any hiders (which Troll no thinks you should have any reason to assume if you be town) and ignores the fact that scum day talk and coordinate reactions to a large degree.

@Rhinox, it still behooves us to make the best choice we can with our information when picking the second role to give scum. If we no have any hiders then janitor no would have been Troll's first choice (Troll's first choice in that case would have been a role blocker and a role cop) but we should still figure out how we want to play this from here on out.

@everyone, The best Troll thinks we can hope for in terms of information for that right now be if we get claims from everyone left on the list other than Ellibereth. If them all show up and none of them claim hider then Troll be fine picking role blocker for our second choice. If any do claim hider or we have multiple people not claim Troll supposes Troll prefers role cop (though perhaps there be some number of non-claims where Troll would still be happy enough with a roleblocker; Troll will think about that.)

Who will be about as we be getting closer to the deadline? Troll should be able to make a final decision up till about 10:00 PM PDT/1:00 AM EDT. That be a while before the deadline but Troll expects to be asleep after that. Who can we count on being about to make sure that votes get moved if we need to have them moved?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Elmo]

Seeing as you just got a role locked in that a number of players (myself included) only voted for based on the pretense that a hider exists, I a bit muffed about it. In fact, I'm just going to tunnel on you until one of us is dead based on the idea that this was a scum gambit designed to influence which roles the town gave to scum.

I didn't expeect such a fast hammer, but in any event, Janitor is harmless (IMO). Breathe.

Due respect, but there are 19 other people in the game, also with opinions. I am deeply unhappy about this; but it can, and needs to, wait.

I think we've been fairly unlucky if any of the unclaimed are a hider, so I'm simply assuming we have none at present.
We now only have three options. I like rolecop significantly less; I haven't done the math, but I think it has good odds to make a negative impact. Assassin and RB are much more up-in-the-air, but RB seems generally tamer.

vote Roleblocker

Probably last post before deadline. See you from the USA!

[Zorblag]

@mith, Troll assumes that you mean that hiders no should claim if we give scum a roleblocker. If we make any other choice then hiders should still claim after the decision be made and we carry on as we would have had DrippingGoofball's claim been true. There be some other things that could be said on that topic but Troll will leave them for now.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Papa Zito]

I'm not a hider?

What is this mess.

Troll, you still want answers to stuff or is it moot at this point?

[Zorblag]

@Papa Zito, anything that we need to talk about based on what Troll said earlier can wait till day one starts at this point.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[SpyreX]

Woodoggy for lol, reactions but I digress.

I can change to almost anything but:

I still don't like the janitor. Suppose DGB is telling the truth, but later one of the scum claims tracker and contradicts her. We lynch one of them, and the result is covered. Then we are uncertain about the other, and uncertain about DGB's results, as long as the other is alive and unconfirmed.

Assuming DGB is telling the truth, the scum now have a field of 15 townies of whom 3 could be assassin targets. A role cop would allow them one shot each day to look for PR's. The field will likely narrow, but whenever the scum hit a PR with their regular NK, the number of targets decreases. There's a good chance that either the assassin or rolecop is lynched, or we are at LYLO, before they uncover any PR's via the rolecop.
So I'm okay with the Rolecop + Assassin combination, unless there's a stronger argument against it.

vote: assassin
vote: rolecop

Never this. Even with one hider going "give them the tool to find roles AND give them the tool to eliminate them at no extra charge" is a bad dealio. Under any guise.

I'll be surprised to see a hider out of the rest. There wont be two. Assumptions can be made fairly safely with that in mind.

[mith]

Troll: That's what I was going for, yes, but after further consideration, I would rephrase...

I think it is correct play to give a Roleblocker if we have no Hider claims, regardless of how many unclaimed players we have.

If there are "several" unclaimed players (all three of those currently unclaimed, maybe two?), I think it's probably worthwhile for a Hider in that group to stay hidden for a night (but such a Hider should make their own decision on that). However, if we get down to one unclaimed (maybe two?), and there is an unclaimed Hider, they should definitely claim day 1 - scum know if there is a Hider, so staying hidden would allow for the scum to block/kill without giving us the chance to bring any protective roles we might have into play.

[Zorblag]

@mith, actually, thinking about it a bit more, even if we do choose a roleblocker any hiders who no were about to claim today should do so when them first arrive after day one has started. Scum know whether or not there's a hider and them have a very limited pool of players it could be at this point. If any of the other who no have claimed by the time the day ends be scum as well it be that much smaller. If we have a roleblocker then an unclaimed hider on their own would get killed within the first couple nights. On the other hand, if them claim then there be some chance that them will be protected by a weak doctor or a jailkeeper if we have one. Claiming no makes it any easier for the scum at this point but it does make it easier for other town power roles to decide what to do.

You posted while Troll was posting this but Troll still disagrees that a hider should stay hidden under any circumstances at this point.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Amished]

I don't like the decision to give the scum multiple choices to deal with any town-power roles. A roleblocker + a janitor does exactly that since they can fake-claim without town knowledge if we do hit a PR (which is optimal scum strategy whenever they get to a L-1 situation anyways). They can leave a PR alive and roleblocked (if true) or fake-claim and then have a believable excuse for not having any results.

Rolecop does nothing for them at this point since they can't have rolecop+assassin. Do not give them a roleblocker on top of the fucking janitor.

[DrippingGoofball]

...you seem to be assuming that there no be any hiders

This may be bad probability theory, but it seems increasingly unlikely with each player claiming "not hider."

[ekiM]

I have a meeting at 0900 GMT that should be done within an hour. So I can be online right up until deadline, I think.

[DrippingGoofball]

Do not give them a roleblocker on top of the fucking janitor.

You'd rather have assassin? It is counter-intuitive.

[mith]

Troll: With three unclaimed, I just don't see it as all that likely that scum will use a block and a kill on a player that only as a 1/3 chance of being a Hider. But you may be right.

Amished: What happened to "Yeah, no rolecop; that's the most dangerous one for scum in my eyes."? I'll be the first to defend someone's right to change their mind after further thought, but I'm not seeing a progression from that statement to this stance in your posts.

I'm not really seeing the synergy between Roleblocker and Janitor; explain? The possibility of leaving a power role alive and blocking (or scum fake-claiming and then having an excuse for no results) has been discussed before (and in fact, you dismissed it earlier with "and if they think that they have one they'll just try to kill it anyways.") and it's not apparent why you think that has anything to do with the Janitor.

[Mr. Flay]

Janitor has been given to the Mafia; one role is still left to be chosen. 11:00AM GMT is just under 15 1/2 hours from this post.

Rolecop (3) -- Zorblag, Amished, ooba
Roleblocker (6) -- Kmd4390, Papa Zito, SpyreX, mith, DrippingGoofball, Elmo
Assassin (2) -- Slicey, zoraster

20 alive, 11 votes to choose.

[Papa Zito]

@Papa Zito, anything that we need to talk about based on what Troll said earlier can wait till day one starts at this point.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

Ok.

So Janitor went down. Now we just need to hammer roleblocker and the game can finally start. Huzzah.

[Rhinox]

Regarding Daycop: its more dangerous to town PR's than assassin. Its unlimited shot. Its not blockable or trackable. It can lead to PR deaths that are not likely to be protected by a JK or WD - we won't know if the scum find a PR, which is less town info/more scum-proprietary info.

Janitor is thus my 3rd choice I would give to scum. If I had to accept it, I'd choose to pair it with RB rather than assassin. Choosing between just 1 of RB or assassin, I think RB is a less harmful role than assassin.

So I guess if I rated my preferences from best to worst choices for the town to give to mafia, it would be...

RB
Assassin
Janitor
Day Rolecop

Or, paired role rankings:

RB+Assassin
RB+Janitor
Assassin+Janitor
*RB+Daycop
*Janitor+Daycop
Assassin+Daycop

*interchangeable

Vote: RB

[Amished]

Do not give them a roleblocker on top of the fucking janitor.

You'd rather have assassin? It is counter-intuitive.

Check where I'm voting.

@mith: The rolecop was dangerous without any claiming at all (which I was opposed to the whole time). With them having a janitor now; I would rank a rolecop as the weakest possible combination with that (roleblocker being the strongest). Giving them a roleblocker only allows them to successfully hide behind a fake-claim indefinitely, especially if the fake-claimer is the roleblocker himself. No matter what we do with the first PR-claim we're screwed. If we let them live; they can roleblock if town (and therefore deprive us of a PR without giving the confirmed town status) or then we're letting scum survive a lynch. If we lynch them; then they can janitor and we're in the dark for the rest of the game if there's 3 PR's left or 4; allowing scum to fake-claim at that point.

A tracker, if we have one, typically does not see if a roleblocked person goes anywhere so the evidence there will be equivocal and pointless.

However, if we give them a rolecop with their janitor; then what happens? They get to whittle down who's a PR or not, only hurting themselves if they want to fake-claim eventually. They still only have the one NK; and they can't roleblock the PR from doing anything in that case. They have to deal with it; allowing townies to play their most pro-town game which is clearly beneficial for the sheer number of talented people in this game. It'll be incredibly difficult for scum to organize mislynches if townies are allowed to play with reckless abandon for the sake of the town.

[DrippingGoofball]

You know, Amished makes good points.

[VasudeVa]

Vote: Rolecop

since we have a hider/fakeclaiming hider and all.

Also, wtf was with that Janitor-hammer.

[mith]

Amished: The Rolecop is powerful on its own - it allows scum to find power roles more quickly and kill them. The fake-claim argument is pretty much a red herring here - odds are we will have a power role claim (real or fake) long before scum eliminate all the power roles, with or without the Rolecop, and so eliminating power roles isn't really hurting them (because the Janitor potentially provides uncertainty on the power role count regardless).

Ways to deal with a first power-role claim might include:

1. Lynch them anyway, and live with the Janitor annoyance.
2. Wait for the Janitor ability to be used and/or the Roleblocker to use up blocks.
3. Vigilante kill, if we strongly suspect them but don't want to mess with 1.
4. Weak Doctor protection, if we believe them (extra Weak Doctor death = caught power role).
5. Trackers have an increased chance of success if the Roleblocker is active (though 3. and 4. interfere somewhat).
6. Jailkeeper may hit the Roleblocker, and in that case a legit claimed power role may know they weren't blocked while a fake claim may not know what happened and get caught.

VasudeVa: Unless I missed a claim somewhere, we don't have any Hider claims at the moment.

[VasudeVa]

Didn't DGB claim Hider?

[mith]

See 286.

[Slicey]

Vote: Roleblocker

Let's get this shit done with please.

[Elmo]

mith doing all the work for me. Ta.

Still think RB is weaker than RC for reasons stated. I pretty much don't see an interaction between janitor and any of the three roles. Broken record mode engaged!

amished: Out of the power roles, only a vig would really be confirmable (tracker is dicey in most cases unless they catch a scumbag, although it's possible), so giving out the roleblocker doesn't actually change a lot on that front. Say someone claims weak doc, they claim to have targeted someone last night, now what? All it means is that scum can kill their #1 target instead of the #2 target, and in general I don't think that's a big bonus. If they don't get a roleblocker, then they can still fakeclaim doc or whatever, we would still have to think hard about when/if to lynch them, and so on - it doesn't seem that different to me.

Lynching a claimed power role with the janitor around is unpleasant, but I'm not sure there's much to be done about that beyond tackling it head-on, or (really) how the other scum role affects it in 99% of situations.

However, if we give them a rolecop with their janitor; then what happens? They get to whittle down who's a PR or not, only hurting themselves if they want to fake-claim eventually. They still only have the one NK; and they can't roleblock the PR from doing anything in that case. They have to deal with it;

For my money, killing power roles is far stronger for them than fakeclaiming. I mean, I was in PYP3 where I screwed up badly later, but we lost a huge amount of power very early, and that was pretty much like being kicked in the face as far as winning chances went. The rolecop is not nearly as bad, but the fact is (for example) they might well not need to fakeclaim before massclaim; it's not just a huge advantage to me. Saying "they have to deal with it" seems really odd, inthat I would be very happy with it as scum.

allowing townies to play their most pro-town game which is clearly beneficial for the sheer number of talented people in this game. It'll be incredibly difficult for scum to organize mislynches if townies are allowed to play with reckless abandon for the sake of the town.

I'm not really sure what logical argument this section is supposed to be making, although the appeal to people's ego is fun