Open 227 - Friends and Enemies

[Sanxion]

Chau: You're case is very strong, I'd say. Your analysis seems good and I *would* vote, but I don't like the idea of votes piling on too quickly before AKR (or replacement) can join us.

The problem I have is that while AKR appears the victim of a setup (as you illustrate), ignoring the wifom implication, his role hasn't posted much today. (if any?) I think we should wait before going too far even if we do decide to lynch Zero.

That being said, I look forward to Zero's rebuttal/defense.

[Ythan]

Do you actually want to hear something from AKR or his replacement or do you just want the day to continue?

[ZeroFang]

Furthermore, the claimed 'buddying' to AKR is far too obvious for me to believe that it's legit scum buddying. Seems like Lowell was trying to fabricate connections in case he died.

Perhaps you need to ISO Lowell again. See exhibit A:

326 and 328 (followed by the other posts slightly leading towards other players) looks like derailment of the CSL wagon by chaud. If CSL is scum chaud almost certianly is, but the alternative is chaud is looking for a friend and maybe knows something about the wagon that others don't.

Here he tried to connect you to scum. He didn't do this by buddying, but he did this by saying if CSL was scum, that you were as well. The irony of it all was he actually connected himself quite closely with CSL, and that turned out to be the valid connection of the two. He did try and fabricate connections, but you can tell the real connections from the fabricated ones by looking at the way he connected the person to scum.

I would encourage you to read Lowell's ISO #3. Notice who his two top picks for town are. We know Lowell was scum. We know CSL was scum. He seemed to buddy with AKR in that very same manner. Nobody else really fits the bill.

Zero Analysis:

Fuck the hell yes! \m/

2 RVS votes, claiming "I felt bad cause I voted Ythan as my RV but then someone else voted him too. I'd feel weird if I just unvoted, so I voted someone based on something arbitrary, like the dead line." and "I noticed two other people voted him." (worrying about an rv wagon)

That's cute. As I recall, that was the main case agaisnt me when you, AKR, and Don all

Voted don for misread reasons, later on when he realized he misread he was still set on keeping his vote on don

I could try and backtrack and defend myself, but I really see no point. Yup. I put on a dunce cap and lead the town to jump off the "LYNCH THE MONKEY" cliff.

In reality, this was one of those awkward times when I had made a stupid case, backtracked, saw that there was a completly different case that was legitamate (this time), and kept my vote. Had I not origionally made a crap case on Don, I probably wouldn't have voted him at all.

Post 17 mason rolefishing

Not that it helps my case any, but that was a relatively idiotic post by me. I do think masons claiming a bit earier might have helped (it would have cleared Octipus, who was considered suspicious throughout the game), though at the time I was just being an arrogant noob.

Post 21 people commentary - Ythan scummy (kinda), CSL scummy, Oct town, Chau town, Xite town, AKR no comment

I couldn't get a read on AKR. He seemed scummy, but at the same time I couldn't quite put my finger on anything. I can now, as explained by my case on him.

Post 22 "As for who's scum, I honestly have no idea." ..fence sitting, then claims top scum are CSL, Chau and San based off 'gut'...contradicts post 21

It was based off of gut feeling, i.e. not on the evidence I had presented. Also, I was running around clueless as to who was scum and you all expected me to tell you who's scum (understandably, I might add). I ended up just posting my gut reads. The post before that, 21, was rushed. That's actually another reason I didn't comment on AKR the first time. I didn't have a case for or against, and I didn't really have time to ISO and make one.

Votes Lowell

Er... ok.

"Going with gut, I'd say Sanxion is the townie in that group (though I still suspect him, so he stays)." This comment bothered me...a lot

It bothers me too, actually. I don't even drink...

"I still have yet to explain the Sanxion-AKR-Lowell alliance I was talking about. Damn, I'm lazy. Lowells at L-2 btw, so your vote would take him to L-1." seems to be purposefully putting it off.

In my mini ISO of all three of them, it seemed like they generally didn't make cases against each other and instead tended to support each other. I don't know if the part I read was unique or I was just sleep deprived, but now I don't know what the hell I was thinking including Sanxion. It seems a bit out of place.

Oh, right. The putting it off part. That's mainly the way I post. I'm going to have to figure this out for myself, but I spend upwards of three hours on these wall posts. It's truly a daunting task, and I'm a bit of a procrastinator. Those two things don't mesh well. It's also why I get prods a lot. I'm paying attention, I'm reading the thread, and I'm keeping up to date, but my post is only halfway done or I haven't scheduled out a block of time for that post to be made yet.

Speaking of which, it's 4:45 in the morning and I have to get up early.

[TheButtonmen]

The Latest In Vote Count Technology:

ZeroFang (1): chauchaudotcom
AKnottedRope (1): ZeroFang
Sanxion:
chauchaudotcom:
Ythan:
Octupis:

With 6 Alive it's 4 to lynch.

[ZeroFang]

Yo Dawg, I Heard You Like Error Ridden Vote Counts:

The Vote Count Your Vote Count Could Smell Like:

The Top O' The Mornin' Vote Count:

The One Of The Few Things You Can't Fix With Duck Tape Is A Vote Count:

The Best Thing Since Sliced Vote Count:

The Latest In Vote Count Technology:

This. This is why our mod is awesome. Thought I'd take a moment to point that out before I continue scum hunting.

[Sanxion]

Do you actually want to hear something from AKR or his replacement or do you just want the day to continue?

wall post

Interesting, but this really fails to shed much light. I feel you defend yourself and cast doubt on Chau's argument that Lowell is framing AKR. However, I don't recall (and will check in a minute) a case on AKR by you or that you reference and agree. So, your post is big but really just looks like imitation contribution outside of something substantial. So I really can't see that post as scum hunting, just doubt, distractors, etc.

[ZeroFang]

That post wasn't intended to contribute or scum hunt. I posted last page for that reason, and yes, I did make a case on AKR that nobody's bothered to refute.

I really don't see you doing too much yourself...

[chauchaudotcom]

That's cute. As I recall, that was the main case agaisnt me when you, AKR, and Don all

Huh? I think your sentence cut off.

It was based off of gut feeling, i.e. not on the evidence I had presented. Also, I was running around clueless as to who was scum and you all expected me to tell you who's scum (understandably, I might add). I ended up just posting my gut reads. The post before that, 21, was rushed. That's actually another reason I didn't comment on AKR the first time. I didn't have a case for or against, and I didn't really have time to ISO and make one.

Which is exactly why it doesn't make sense from a town perspective. Why would you go off gut feeling over the evidence you presented? That makes no sense. The reason I posted those two as a case against you wasn't because of your read on AKR. It was because of your inconsistency between 21 and your scum declarations. Your posts do not ring genuine in scum hunting

because

of the fact that you chose to use gut reads versus pursuing actual evidence.

Your defense actually makes me think you're even more scum.

---

In any case, I'd like some input from other people. Particularly Oct since he's our confirmed town.

[ZeroFang]

That's cute. As I recall, that was the main case agaisnt me when you, AKR, and Don all

Huh? I think your sentence cut off.

Sorry. That's what happens when you nearly fall asleep posting and in your haste to post and get to sleep, you forget to proof read/fact check. I don't know exactly what I was trying to say here, but I'm pretty sure it was wrong.

Edit after preview: I remember now. I intended to say something along the lines of "It was RVS so it doesn't matter. It's ridiculous to say I'm scummy for that". I was going to start that off by saying that was the crap case against me at the beginning of the game. I'm not sure if the three of you actually were on it or not, and I was going to check to make sure I remembered correctly.

Which is exactly why it doesn't make sense from a town perspective. Why would you go off gut feeling over the evidence you presented? That makes no sense. The reason I posted those two as a case against you wasn't because of your read on AKR. It was because of your inconsistency between 21 and your scum declarations. Your posts do not ring genuine in scum hunting

because

of the fact that you chose to use gut reads versus pursuing actual evidence.

It's not that I didn't pursue actual evidence. It's that I found none, and I had to post something.

Your defense actually makes me think you're even more scum.

*sigh* Alright, whatever.

[Octupis]

Okay, I was suspicious of AKR yesterday for various reasons. First, that he was so aggressive in his pursuit of myself anf Ythan as the scum, and then, it was me and Zero. It seemed to me like he was desperate for a lynch, whoever it was. However, when Lowell started coming under scrutiny, AKR suddenly didn't understand the case on him and still wanted me lynched. Couple this with the fact that both Lowell and AKR were the only people voting for me (apart from a small stint by chau), I was suspicious of him. Then there was this post, where Lowell said that AKR and CSL were town, while myself and chau are scum. Since Lowell and CSL have flipped scum, I became more sure. In regards to your point about Lowell framing AKR, chau, I can see it but think it is unlikely because the buddying was as far back as page 10, and they did both bandwagon me yesterday.

Today, I am also beginning to suspect Zero too. this post didn't make sense to me, because it described primarily the scummy actions of Lowell, and then briefly said that AKR was connected to him, and was therefore scummy. First, why document the scummy actions of a dead player, and secondly, why go to all that trouble to then link AKR with it, wouldn't it make more sense to mention the links, but also mention why AKR is scummy, in his own right? Plus, considering I made the basic point behind Zero's case yesterday, I wondered if it was perhaps a tad opportunistic for Zero to repeat it and then vote (perhaps to try and start a wagon, with a confirmed townie on it).

Post 21 people commentary - Ythan scummy (kinda), CSL scummy, Oct town, Chau town, Xite town, AKR no comment

I couldn't get a read on AKR. He seemed scummy, but at the same time I couldn't quite put my finger on anything. I can now, as explained by my case on him.

How come you can see it now, and you couldn't quite see it before?

chau, you said that you were suspicious of Zero and Ythan. Could you post similar reasoning for your suspicions of Ythan please.

[Sanxion]

Zero, what case on AKR? Do you mean your connections made to him by Lowell that you note? That's not a case, that's case support. If (and Oct beat me at explaining this to an extent) you have a case on AKR, then the connections back it up. As a standalone, it is difficult (almost impossible) to tell if your case has any validity or if you're scum trying to use connections Lowell started to get a lynch without any other basis.

Also, I forgot to comment on the Ythan quote:
I meant to say: Both Ythan. I want the day to continue so we can here from AKR's role. The guaranteed life of a confirmed town is better than his likely disappearance tomorrow. Would you disagree?

[Ythan]

I don't disagree, but just asking for the day to go on without any specific goal in mind is not constructive.

[chauchaudotcom]

Edit after preview: I remember now. I intended to say something along the lines of "It was RVS so it doesn't matter. It's ridiculous to say I'm scummy for that". I was going to start that off by saying that was the crap case against me at the beginning of the game. I'm not sure if the three of you actually were on it or not, and I was going to check to make sure I remembered correctly.

It's not ridiculous. RVS is part of the game, hence, a perfectly valid part of the scum hunting process. Plus it wasn't even your votes that was suspicious. It was the reasoning for your movements.

It's not that I didn't pursue actual evidence.

It's that I found none, and I had to post something.

So you were posting for the sake of posting and not for actual scumhunting?

In regards to your point about Lowell framing AKR, chau, I can see it but think it is unlikely because the buddying was as far back as page 10, and they did both bandwagon me yesterday.

Well I'm not going to defend AKR because that's his job. However, I will say that I don't feel your case is as strong as you seem to think it is. AKR's so claimed 'connection' to Lowell isn't solid at all in my eyes. If anything the fact that CSL declared both Lowell and AKR town makes it even less likely for him to be scum. I doubt scum would be stupid enough to out both of their partners with such an obvious manner, especially given the chance that they are lynched and flipped.

chau, you said that you were suspicious of Zero and Ythan. Could you post similar reasoning for your suspicions of Ythan please.

It's nothing new really. I actually agreed a lot with AKR's case against Ythan yesterday. His connection with CSL is pretty strong. I did a wagon analysis first and the most likely scenarios for scum were Zero and Ythan. After that it was just based off their activity all game.

[Sanxion]

I don't disagree, but just asking for the day to go on without any specific goal in mind is not constructive.

I understand, but my goal is to have all players participate. If AKR is scum and Chau's theory is wrong, I would like us to address that while we have a living confirmed town. That is a specific goal: to have analysis from AKR to analyze. I will agree that there is little reason otherwise to keep the day going because I would be voting zero right now if I were ready for the day to end. Chau's theory is very good. But I don't believe in voting until everyone's had a chance to speak, which allows us some solid analysis.

[ZeroFang]

I'm not quite done with my case on AKR but I'm saving it in a notepad file to be worked on as soon as I get home tomorrow (around 1pm).

By the way, connections to scum can be a case by itself if both (or all three) players are involved. I understand you guys don't think AKR is scummy because Lowell went along with whatever he said, but AKR didn't exactly hop on CSL's wagon until it was pretty clear he was going to be lynched anyway.

[Sanxion]

Mod: It has been 10 days since AKR should have been gone for a week. Since 10>7, can he be prodded or (if necessary) replaced?

Thanks.

If nothing happens, he's either abandoned (probably not intended) or lurking.

[TheButtonmen]

I've been trying to to replace him since August 3rd, unfortunatly nobody has offered to replace in yet.

[chauchaudotcom]

By the way, connections to scum can be a case by itself if both (or all three) players are involved. I understand you guys don't think AKR is scummy because Lowell went along with whatever he said,

but AKR didn't exactly hop on CSL's wagon until it was pretty clear he was going to be lynched anyway.

I'd like to see you try to find evidence for this.

[ZeroFang]

That was Octi, not AKR.

[chauchaudotcom]

Huh? What does Octi have to do with this?

Show me evidence where "AKR didn't exactly hop on CSL's wagon until it was pretty clear he was going to be lynched anyway" is true because it seems like we're not reading the same game.

[ZeroFang]

Huh? What does Octi have to do with this?

Nothing. It was Octi who hopped on CSLs wagon at the last minute, not AKR. I was correcting myself.

[chauchaudotcom]

Okay then. I'll wait for this case you promised then.

[Ythan]

This game is losing momentum.

Apologizes for the replacement situation, the replacement queue hasn't been updated since July 29th which is making it harder to find a replacement then normal and of the two people I would ask to replace in one of them knows too much to replace in and the other is too busy.

[ZeroFang]

I'm probably a little biased on this first part, but I still think it's valid. AKR kept his RV because apparantly I hopped off a RV wagon I started. I don't really care if it's RV and still a valid part of the game. It was a bad reason to vote, and a bad case to get everyone to hop on. I see this as scum looking for an easy lynch. To be honest, I was suspecting chau a bit too for the same reason (though she's pretty cleared, I'll explain later in the post).

This post actually explains my thoughts pretty well, and I made my own post here explaining my thoughts on the matter. I noticed I didn't connect them nearly as thouroughly as I thought I had. I was under the impression that I made this post, which you are reading.

ISO 1
States I'm town, and that chacha and don are scum

Just remember, this is coming straight from the mouth of a flaming scum bag (pun intended). We can assume certain things to be true about his posts (for instance, he'll generally try to make the town look scummy and the scum look town). He further attacks chau. Let's continue.

ISO 3
Big post, does a full evaluation
AKR is town
CSL is town (later flipped scum)
Smash bugs him (later replaced, to lazy to check who )
Octips is scummy for voting, then unvoting Lowell (who was scum), and for editing his posts a lot before he posts them
chacha.com is scum for being timid and overreacting

Ok, so lets see what we can take from this post of his.

We know:
1) Lowell was scum
2) Lowell isn't exactly the best and brightest player out there
3) Lowell defended CSL, who later flipped scum
4) Lowell defended AKR

in the same way

he defended his other scum buddy
5) Lowell attacked Octipus who is our last mason (i.e. confirmed town)
6) Lowell also attacks chau in roughly the same way he attacked Octipus

-2 is a known fact about Lowell, at least according to Ythan and DJ. I don't really see any reason to doubt it.
-3 shows us that he was indeed willing to openly defend his scum partners, which leads me to believe that 4 shows a scummy relationship to AKR who he defended in the same manner. You might say that this is too obvious, but you forget about 2 which lends validity to this connection. (If you don't believe 2, just read on. You'll see)
-5 shows us that he openly attacked players who he knew weren't scum
-6 leads me to believe that chau is town because 5 is also true. I actually believed Octi was a mason long before he claimed. chau did as well. This further leads me to believe that the AKR/Lowell attacks on Oct were to get rid of the last mason without wasting an NK on him (this is a bit more out there. I'm not about to pretend this is conclusive). I have a strong suspicion that they believed they could get him lynched easy enough not to worry about killing him.

Now wait, this gets better.

ISO 7
FoS's Xite
Tries to link chau to CSL if he flips scum (and he did)
Revotes chau

Lowell knew that CSL would flip scum inevitably. He apparently believed that he could link chau to scum in this manner. If you needed proof for 2 in the section above, you have it. He also explicitly stated how much he didn't understand the case on CSL despite numerous explanations. More evidence for 2. No more of this "Well, Lowell wouldn't make anything THAT obvious" nonsense. He would, and did make things that obvious.

ISO 11
Votes Octipus, makes a big case on him
"I agree with knotted that this is the place to start." (may I reiterate the AKR connection here?)

By the way, this is all while AKR attacks Octipus. Just throwing that out there.

This is the recent and biggest connection between AKR and Octi. Oh, and lets forget how AKR didn't mention Lowell during most of the game, and let's ignore his subtle derailment of Lowell's case (Twice, this time insisting he's anti-town but not scum) and lets forget that he bussed CSL right out of RVS, much like a scum would do to try and eliminate connections to other scum buddies.

This is a far cry, but he tried to get me lynched early, and made This post stating Lowell and I were probably on the same team. Interestingly enough, if we had believed him and one of us had flipped, it would be golden for the scum. Lowell would be confirmed townie if I died, and I'd be confirmed scum if Lowell died. Either way, it would help the scum. I really can't see how his reasoning could be interpreted from a townie perspective.

I find it very scummy how the only cases he was millitant about have been against CSL (he seemed 100% sure CSL was scum. WAY too sure) and Octipus (confirmed town).

And really, at this point I'm convinced AKR is scum nearly enough to just say go ahead and lynch me so you know you can trust me. That's also why I'm not too terribly concerned with my defense. Scum hunting > defending yourself, always. If it's between AKR and I for the last scum, you can lynch us both. We have two votes to the end, and two main suspects. AKR has a strong case on his head, and you guys suspect me a great deal. At this rate I don't think anyone else has much of a chance at being lynched. If we mislynch me, and then lynch AKR, I'm pretty sure we'd still win. I'd like thoughts on this last paragraph at the very least, even if you somehow dismiss everything above it.

[Ythan]

Not a criticism of the mod in my last post. Replacement hunting is a bitch.