Mini 1023 - City Watch Mafia - Game Over!

[jimfinn]

@ Town as a whole: What should I do, full claim, name only, or no claim?

VOTE COUNT

jimfinn (4): Chronopie, FakeGod, VasudeVa, Mysterio
Tasky (1): TheButtonmen
FakeGod (1): Thor665
Mysterio (1): KHG
Chronopie (1): Tasky
Narsis (1): Plum
VasudeVa (1): Budja

Not Voting (2): Narsis, jimfinn

With 12 alive, 7 votes are needed to lynch.

[Mysterio]

Don't claim any powers. Just tell us who your character is. Once you do that, we move on to someone else. Once we get all RC's out, we can then look for any anomalies.

[Mysterio]

@Mysterio - could you link me to a Day 1 Massclaim where town gained useful information?

I haven't played many games on this site. But I could link you to a Narnia game I played on another site (you would have to register) where mass RC's helped win the game due to a large number of main characters being used. The fake claims were eventually pigeonholed and allowed town to win fairly easily. Obviously, I can't say for sure if the same will happen here, but it seems to me RCing has very few downsides for town, but very many downsides for scum.

[FakeGod]

In the Harry Potter Mafia I just finished, scum won perfectly because of RCs...

I think we shouldn't RC unless it's necessary.

[KHG]

Why not? It doesn't mean someone is being scummy because they're doing something that you can't figure out. In what way does my RC hurt town? Once you answer that, then you can start making the case for me being scum. So far, my RC is 1) uncounterclaimed, 2) revealed the nature of the CHARISN'TMA power for today, which can give us clues to any future powers it might give, 3) tells us that the main characters of Discworld are in use, so if someone tries to fake claim a really obscure character to avoid counterclaims (assuming no fake claims were given by the mod), we can call them on it. Although, even if fake claims were given, it depends on how many main characters are used. There are only so many.

You're going to have to do a little better, KHG.

I'm not referring to you claiming Cpl. Nobbs, I have no qualms about that, and your post above is absolutely correct. The bizarreness I was referring specifically to was in post #106, where you claimed vanilla townie:

Tomorrow I will revert back to a VT. Hence me not really caring about claiming early, since getting NK would only mean that town lost a VT.

I'd just like an explanation about why you wrote that. I'm not intending to be confrontational, that claim is just

Mysterio

us (ha) to me.

[Tasky]

@Mysterio - could you link me to a Day 1 Massclaim where town gained useful information?

I haven't played many games on this site. But I could link you to a Narnia game I played on another site (you would have to register) where mass RC's helped win the game due to a large number of main characters being used. The fake claims were eventually pigeonholed and allowed town to win fairly easily. Obviously, I can't say for sure if the same will happen here, but it seems to me RCing has very few downsides for town, but very many downsides for scum.

I am fairly new to this site, but from what I got by looking trough old games, the vast majority of them is totally massclaim-proof... you are trying to outsmart the mod, that won't work... so, let's look at pros and cons of mass-claim:

pros:
basically nothing, since scum will have a way to protect themselves from being exposed (fake claim or something like that)
I doubt looking for main/secondary characters will help at all
the only pro I can think of is that it's more difficult for scum to come up with a good claim later in the game. But I think that's a risk we can take as such claims are usually easy to expose (and if they deviate from their fakeclaim they are likely going to be counteclaimed). And even if we massclaim, that would still be possible, since they could still invent abilities which are consistent with the role-name.

cons:
1. powerful town roles might get exposed. Assume e.g. someone claims Vetinari or Vimes, Scum would have a perfect NK-target and probably hit a town-PR.
2. I assume that every day someone gets an ability, if we claim roles, scum would always know who has which abilities, that would definitely hurt town.

well, I think it's kinda obvious we should NOT massclaim...

[jimfinn]

I'm still trying to decide whether or not to claim, but Mysterio's insistence that I claim now certainly feels like scummy PR fishing, so I'm going to VOTE: Mysterio

[Narsis]

imo a massclaim Day 1 wont end well. it will likely give too much info to the scum and too little to the town.

[Mysterio]

I'm not referring to you claiming Cpl. Nobbs, I have no qualms about that, and your post above is absolutely correct. The bizarreness I was referring specifically to was in post #106, where you claimed vanilla townie:

Tomorrow I will revert back to a VT. Hence me not really caring about claiming early, since getting NK would only mean that town lost a VT.

I'd just like an explanation about why you wrote that. I'm not intending to be confrontational, that claim is just

Mysterio

us (ha) to me.

I see. That was intended for those worrying that I outed a power role that would be useful beyond just today. It would be quite different if I permanently had a double vote, since revealing that would have hurt town. But given the fact that my power is a one shot for today which scum can't do anything about, I'm making it clear that my RC/PC was indeed calculated.

I am fairly new to this site, but from what I got by looking trough old games, the vast majority of them is totally massclaim-proof... you are trying to outsmart the mod, that won't work... so, let's look at pros and cons of mass-claim:

pros:
basically nothing, since scum will have a way to protect themselves from being exposed (fake claim or something like that)
I doubt looking for main/secondary characters will help at all
the only pro I can think of is that it's more difficult for scum to come up with a good claim later in the game. But I think that's a risk we can take as such claims are usually easy to expose (and if they deviate from their fakeclaim they are likely going to be counteclaimed). And even if we massclaim, that would still be possible, since they could still invent abilities which are consistent with the role-name.

cons:
1. powerful town roles might get exposed. Assume e.g. someone claims Vetinari or Vimes, Scum would have a perfect NK-target and probably hit a town-PR.
2. I assume that every day someone gets an ability, if we claim roles, scum would always know who has which abilities, that would definitely hurt town.

well, I think it's kinda obvious we should NOT massclaim...

I certainly concede that games could be played very differently here. Each site you play this game in has different quirks that make the game progress very differently. But to address your points:

Pros:
All fake claims can be analyzed for their veracity when compared to other role claims. You could have a fake claim that was not too obscure and uncounterclaimed, but you can still pick out things that don't fit if indeed all town roles have some attribute in common. I agree that outguessing the mod is stupid, but my point is it doesn't matter what the mod has done. Mass RCing can give us clues as to which characters are most likely town, and make it much harder for scum to hid behind the unknown of not knowing what characters are in use. Especially in theme games where there are "main characters" and every other character, that is the easiest way of picking out anomalies.

Cons:
There is certainly the issue of inadvertantly outing a power role if someone was assigned a huge character like Vimes or Vetinari, and that's one of the downsides for town I mentioned. But we still don't know the mechanics of the power roles, such as the existence of protective roles or self-saves. And neither will scum, so even if someone is pressured into revealing their role as Vimes for example, there's no guarantee at all that he will be night killed. And we still get the benefit of knowing that huge characters are in play, which makes it even harder for scum to hide.

[FakeGod]

@Mysterio: It seems that you want to rely on examining claims to find scum, and this approach almost completely relies on outguessing the mod (whether he has provided well thought-out fake claims for the scum, including vulnerable town roles (such as a beloved princess), and how closely he is following the flavor)

In the Harry Potter Mafia I mentioned earlier, Voldemort (scum) fakeclaimed Dumbledore and was able to play the game risk-free, while town, finding out that we have Dementors/other "evil" creatures in the game, lynched bunch of Town PRs in quick succession.

Plus, I don't see how massclaim will help town. Say scum have major characters like Vimes as their safeclaim, so he claims Vimes. How can we, town, tell the difference? What will most likely happen is that "Vimes" will walk around free without a fear of getting lynched.

And scum might fakeclaim major characters anyway in order to out the real major characters.

There's just too much manipulations and luck-based stuff going on for a mass claim. We shouldn't mass claim.

[Tasky]

I can't believe we have to argue about this...

Pros:
All fake claims can be analyzed for their veracity when compared to other role claims. You could have a fake claim that was not too obscure and uncounterclaimed, but you can still pick out things that don't fit if indeed all town roles have some attribute in common. I agree that outguessing the mod is stupid, but my point is it doesn't matter what the mod has done. Mass RCing can give us clues as to which characters are most likely town, and make it much harder for scum to hid behind the unknown of not knowing what characters are in use. Especially in theme games where there are "main characters" and every other character, that is the easiest way of picking out anomalies.

Cons:
There is certainly the issue of inadvertantly outing a power role if someone was assigned a huUNVOTE: ge character like Vimes or Vetinari, and that's one of the downsides for town I mentioned. But we still don't know the mechanics of the power roles, such as the existence of protective roles or self-saves. And neither will scum, so even if someone is pressured into revealing their role as Vimes for example, there's no guarantee at all that he will be night killed. And we still get the benefit of knowing that huge characters are in play, which makes it even harder for scum to hide.

I really can't believe you believe what you are saying... translation:
"well, who cares if we out a huge power role, since there might be a doctor to protect it. And even the PR dies, well, at least we know it was there."
this is total nonsense...
just because something is

possible

(the PR not being NK'ed), it doesn't mean it is

probable

. In fact, I think the probability that an outed PR won't live long is really high and is definitely not worth the minimal benefit you

maybe

get out of the mass-claim.

you either are incredibly stupid or you are scum (or both).
in both cases I don't want you in the endgame...
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Mysterio

[Tasky]

EBWOP: damn... that "UNVOTE: " shouldn't be inside the quote...

[Thor665]

You're really focusing on this "inconsistencies" bit - and I just don't grok what you're expecting. Yeah, if we all claim and it goes something like;

Vimes
Carrot
Colon
Nobbs
Angua
Detrius
Weatherwax

well, okay, maybe we've got something there. But your whole inconsistencies concept seems to be predicated on the idea the mod is either dumb or that there aren't enough guardsmen to go around. I certainly don't believe the latter is true, as there is a large cast to draw from, and unless you have evidence of the former I really fail to see what inconsistencies you expect. Even if there are a few less "popular" characters - there's no guarantee that they're more or less likely to be scum. The Lack of evidence from on site games is noted.

I also don't like how you call for mass RC, seek support, and then go along pressuring players and trying to get RC through vote pressure as well. Either try to get general agreement about mass RC or don't, doing both just looks sketchy.

@Narsis - would love to see a bit of commentary from you about your current top suspect.

[Mysterio]

Yes, mass RCing does assume that the flavor plays a role in the game. I've never been in a theme game where the flavor meant nothing, but perhaps that's how things are done here. Obviously, if the majority do not agree, then it's pointless for me to try and pressure jimfinn. And with so many votes on him, scum could jump in and hammer. So, I'll

Unvote: jimfinn

.

Here's my question, if we don't go the route of analyzing RC's to find scum, then where do you suggest we proceed?

[KHG]

Yes, mass RCing does assume that the flavor plays a role in the game. I've never been in a theme game where the flavor meant nothing, but perhaps that's how things are done here. Obviously, if the majority do not agree, then it's pointless for me to try and pressure jimfinn. And with so many votes on him,

scum could jump in and hammer.

So, I'll Unvote: jimfinn.

Emphasis is mine. Because scum would be stupid enough to lynch someone like that, without any prerogative evidence? You've been pressuring jimfinn pretty much singlehandedly. My vote will stay on you.

Here's my question, if we don't go the route of analyzing RC's to find scum, then where do you suggest we proceed?

Post and relationship analysis, as a start?

[VasudeVa]

No no no no.

Do not try to outguess the mod without proper theories/empirical proof. Trust me on this one, trying to outguess the mod with so little information leads to disaster.

Vote: Mysterio

[jimfinn]

@players on this forum for a long time: Is a scum with doublevote unthinkable? Perhaps he really does have a hidden doublevote, and is still scum. Just throwing another possibility out there.

[Mysterio]

I can't believe we have to argue about this...

I really can't believe you believe what you are saying... translation:
"well, who cares if we out a huge power role, since there might be a doctor to protect it. And even the PR dies, well, at least we know it was there."
this is total nonsense...
just because something is

possible

(the PR not being NK'ed), it doesn't mean it is

probable

. In fact, I think the probability that an outed PR won't live long is really high and is definitely not worth the minimal benefit you

maybe

get out of the mass-claim.

you either are incredibly stupid or you are scum (or both).
in both cases I don't want you in the endgame...
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Mysterio

Your overreaction is quite telling. If indeed a PR is lost (this assumes a bunch of things that would not be revealed by RCing), but we gain information on scum that narrows the field down, then what have we really lost? Your reaction seems like an obvious attempt to sound pro-town, while at the same time avoiding a tactic that could make it harder for scum to blend in. PR's are not to be protected at all costs, which your overreaction seems to suggest.

[Thor665]

@jimfinn - You're the one voting for him - do *you* believe he is scum or don't you?

[VasudeVa]

Instead of "Put someone to L-1 and then let them claim and move on to someone else.". It's "Put someone to L-1 and wait for people to react then hammer unless he's a PR if he is then we move on to someone else."

@jimfinn: Double vote is very powerful as the game drags on. A DV on scum is frowned upon(easy LyLo win etc.).

I do think that our DV's PR is not indicative of alignment though since he says he loses it tommorow(and if he's lying about that, it's easy to catch so w/e.).

[KHG]

I do think that our DV's PR is not indicative of alignment though since he says he loses it tommorow(and if he's lying about that, it's easy to catch so w/e.).

I agree that the double vote it says nothing about alignment.

What is "PR"? Not in the Wiki.

[VasudeVa]

Power Role.

[jimfinn]

Yes I do think he is scum, or at least has acted the most scummy of anyone so far. His odd comments and too-aggressive insistence on a MassRC sound like scum trying to skate by on a safeclaim and out PRs. However, I can't find any reason he would make up the one day double vote and expect us to believe him unless it were true (it's such an odd thing to claim), but he seems pretty scummy. I wanted to know if anyone else had experienced a D1-doublevoting scum before.

[KHG]

I wanted to know if anyone else had experienced a D1-doublevoting scum before.

The mod's post implies it's a one day power, perhaps bestowed to him randomly? I wouldn't read too much into the double-vote in how it relates to his alignment.

[Narsis]

@Narsis - would love to see a bit of commentary from you about your current top suspect.

that would be Mysterio. his claim i found intriguing but more of a null. however his more recent play(ie. the last couple pages) seems scummy. as jimfinn put it:

His odd comments and too-aggressive insistence on a MassRC sound like scum trying to skate by on a safeclaim and out PRs.

Vote: Mysterio