/Invitational 11: Pick your Poison 5 (Game Over)

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla: What? DGB obviously knew that we were claiming hider/not hider. With knowing that; how could she (I'm just gonna call dgb a she) NOT know why we're claiming? That's the biggest dance around the issue that I think I've ever seen.

She knew we were claiming - did she know people would vote for the janitor if she claimed hider?

[Rhinox]

I can't read DGB's motivations behind why she does the things she does other than 'LOL GAMBIT'. Can you? Because I could see scum and town DGB pulling that stunt.

I don't have any reason to analyze DGB any different than I would any other player. The only other game I played with her ended up being mostly DGB vs. ABR all day 1, and ended with a DGB lynch on D1. I don't like the result that the town ended up locking in a scum role based on false information, but the only real scum motivation I can find for the act is "cause a bunch of confusion right before the D0 deadline" but I don't see any real scum benefit out of it that would justify drawing the attention. On the other hand, I don't see at all how, if it really was a town gambit, it was supposed to catch scum. Scum are clearly aware whether hider(s) exist or not. I believe scum would be smart/clever enough to figure out what was going on right away, and because of that I can't analyze any responses without falling into a WIFOM trap. The most curious point is that when DGB came clean on her gambit, she immediately assumed scum should know she was lying, which would only be the case if DGB knew there were no hiders, and there were still 5? players left who haven't claimed. Mostly though, I'm just trying to ignore it ever happened and move on.

It is also curious for someone who can't read town or scum motivation in DGB's gambit to not call out a fake claim despite knowing DGB was claiming. The response that you were letting DGB get her lolreactions carries the assumption that you thought she was fakeclaiming as town, as if she were scum the "information" she would claim to obtain would not be helpful to catching scum.

Rhinox's arguments that Assassin is good because it reduces the lynch pool the way a Vig would.

Thats a pretty big misrep. The reason I felt assassin was good are found in my isos #0, and first paragraph of #1. The point you referred to in your post was in reference to the negative of an assassin being

that a couple extra deaths aren't necessarily a bad thing

...which is saying quite a bit different than "that is the reason I felt assassin was the best pick." Especially after the points I gave in support of an assassin centered around the unlikliness of the assassin even being able to get off a kill.

Rhinox, no. Just lazy. Didn't know the hider claim thing was going on. I don't think I actually saw 348 or 349. I was bored of the whole "what roles should we give scum" discussion and was pretty much waiting for the actual game, so I skimmed over the role related stuff.

But you definitely read #346, as that was what you were commenting on in #350. I don't believe that you just didn't see Ellibereth claim not hider in #347 (2-line post, easy to read quickly), followed by mith specifically requesting you to hider claim in #348 (another 2-line post), followed by troll requesting all remaining players to hider claim in #349 (3-line post). Even just skimming, its impossible to miss the requests in these posts - considering, in order to know the topic of the posts were "role related stuff you were bored of and wanted to skim over", you'd have had to read enough of the post to first know it was role related stuff. Also considering, hider claiming was pretty much all that was discussed in the previous 4 pages, so even just skimming you would have came across for example page 11, and the 14 bolded "not hider" claims in a row. So, by the time you posted in #350, its impossible for you to claim ignorance on the requests for you to claim.

[Mr. Flay]

Third Vote Count of Day One

Kmd4390 (3) -- Elmo, Rhinox, Ellibereth
ooba (2) -- Plumegranate, VasudeVa
Hoopla (2) -- Papa Zito, Amished,
zoraster (2) -- DrippingGoofball, Kmd4390
DrippingGoofball (1) -- zoraster
Rhinox (1) -- ooba
Herodotus (1) -- SpyreX
Amished (1) -- populartajo

Not Voting (7) -- ekiM, Herodotus, Hoopla, mith, My Milked Eek, Slicey, Zorblag

With 20 alive, 11 votes will be needed to lynch. Deadline: 25th of August, at 12:30 am US Central Time.

[Kmd4390]

Rhinox, last I knew before that, most people were against any kind of claiming.

[Herodotus]

vote: KMD

Also, a one hider claim is dodgy

Could you explain what you mean by this? Is there something about only one hider claiming that would make you think it was a fakeclaim, while two hiders claiming would make you think they were more likely telling the truth? (I'm assuming "dodgy" = "untrustworthy".)

@Ooba: I don't think your classification scheme will necessarily have a strong correlation with alignment. Any scum who wanted to appear helpful D0 probably could have. And 'supporting massclaim' is hardly a towntell. It's not clear that it is in the town's best interests, and even if it were, scum wouldn't necessarily oppose it.
And is there any significance to my "*"?

@DGB 385: How is Zoraster trying to make sure you don't hunt scum? Presumably you suspect him -- and you're voting him, and you made an argument against him...

@Spyrex: Did you vote me because you always think I'm suspicious when we're both townies, or because you know I know you do? Because I know you know I know that, so it won't buy you any town points.
I don't recall the switch you refer to. Are you thinking 'massclaim is "obviously flawed" ' = "lets massclaim"?
The push for assassin/rolecop was based on the assumption that there was a hider. Without one, I would have supported roleblocker/(not janitor). With one, it had to be (not roleblocker)/(not janitor).

[mith]

Hoopla: I am currently listing DGB in my top 4; I am not voting for her, I am not assuming that her fake claim was a scum plot. If I felt I had a strong case for her being scum, I would make it. Getting you to take a stand on her is more about you than her; your initial response was incongruous with your expressed thoughts on the game, and then you went with "temporary insanity", "dazzled", and "DGB does bizarre things".

On to the meat. I very much disagree that DGB was "squarely at the forefront" of a let's-get-on-with-it movement. ISO her; posts 3 and 8 show an interest in scum role discussion, post 11 addresses the Hider-claim idea, and while it's noncommittal it's certainly not Papa Zito-speak either. She didn't post much (V/LA), but when she did it wasn't unaware of what was going on.

Any heat DGB is getting for the "result" is not coming from me. My suspicions of her are based on two things:

1. Her certainty that there would be no Hider claims coming from the remaining four players.
2. A sincerity-based read of her retraction and subsequent posts. I've experienced DGB-town (and managed a fairly consistent town-read on her: e.g., "I still think she's likely innocent, though. Sincerity is something I look for as well, and as much as I disagree with most of what she says, she looks like she really believes it when she says it."), and I've watched DGB-scum's thought processes (see CT3 QT, though it's a long and sometimes painful read).

Papa Zito, Troll: You two have hydra'd together several times. I'd be interested in your current reads on each other.

[mith]

EBWOP: Append: ", and at the moment, her play feels more like the latter." to point 2.

[ekiM]

Also, janitor can't sweep himself up, Herod.

What makes you think that?

Also, janitor can't sweep himself up, Herod.

False. Reread the role.

Bleh, my bad.

I have classified the players based on the following:
- If you suggested something original during D0, you're in the town list
- If you kept a low profile, you're in the scum list. Basically, it narrows down to if your play appears like you were afraid to express opinions strongly and ruffle a few feathers.

Scum

3) ekiM

I don't get it. Among others.

- Anybody who agreed with a massclaim gets into the town list

Why?

18). VasudeVa
- He actually guessed one hider in his first post. (2 Trackers, 1 vig, 1 hider). But apparently he comes back 7 hours later to choose something different. That's odd - I can attribute old scum coaching new scum VV about how hider is a unlikely choice for scum.

Scum had 96 hours to talk before the thread was unlocked.

4). Ellibereth
- Plus points for actually making a scumhunting list

Why would it be good to telegraph to scum whom you do or don't suspect before they decide to give their powers to?

Not around at D0 deadline, and last to hider claim. Also, didn't hider claim in #350, even though he surely read #348 and #349 before posting. Prediction: still considering whether scum should fake claim hider in the QT.

Why would he post at all before making a decision in that case?

---

DGB, Hoopla. What response were you expecting if DBG were believed by most? No vote switching? We were pretty damn close to deadline, what did you think was going to happen, precisely?

[SpyreX]

@Spyrex: Did you vote me because you always think I'm suspicious when we're both townies, or because you know I know you do? Because I know you know I know that, so it won't buy you any town points.
I don't recall the switch you refer to. Are you thinking 'massclaim is "obviously flawed" ' = "lets massclaim"?
The push for assassin/rolecop was based on the assumption that there was a hider. Without one, I would have supported roleblocker/(not janitor). With one, it had to be (not roleblocker)/(not janitor).

Why yes its a function of meta because I sure love me some meta. And town points. Those too.

Calling it "obviously flawed" doesn't change the fact it was presented. Looking to salvage it means, in fact, that you would want it to happen if that was possible. This changed to a more negative connotation after discussion with mith and STILL was brought up again after.

And its not a function of wanting a massclaim. I thought about that and "flawed" or not it could still work out decently. Its about the change in tone with the pushing on it.

But, lets look at this because while the other stuff bothers me this is the one that I'm calling shenanigans on:

I still don't like the janitor. Suppose DGB is telling the truth, but later one of the scum claims tracker and contradicts her. We lynch one of them, and the result is covered. Then we are uncertain about the other, and uncertain about DGB's results, as long as the other is alive and unconfirmed.

Assuming DGB is telling the truth, the scum now have a field of 15 townies of whom 3 could be assassin targets. A role cop would allow them one shot each day to look for PR's. The field will likely narrow, but whenever the scum hit a PR with their regular NK, the number of targets decreases. There's a good chance that either the assassin or rolecop is lynched, or we are at LYLO, before they uncover any PR's via the rolecop.
So I'm okay with the Rolecop + Assassin combination, unless there's a stronger argument against it.

The scenario for Janitor being this horrible and destructive thing is a 1-1. Which is something I'd always take to the bank but I digress because this is only really important as a function of the second paragraph.

15 / 3 is correct. However, this is 1.) disregarding that it is effectively 14 to start because of the rolecop (assuming a negative result) and 2.) even 14 is wrong because in this group its a safe assumption that scum are going to hold against someone who isn't going to be lynched. So, at the first juncture it would be used it is 13.

And, it would be used. At least the first shot because worst case scenario it acts as a double rolecop in conjunction with the other sans blocking. Which, assuming a kill goes through on not a PR puts the next day start at 12 alive with 3 investigated and before its even used again at least another one.

Them's good odds. Not even because they're narrowing PR's but because

an effective use is an extra kill

.

Add into that the argument against the Janitor is a "worst case" scenario that is still better than the other and the rationalization for the Assassin/Rolecop is "well, we'll be lynching scum" and I'm calling teaparty - it doesn't matter at ALL what roles the scum have if they're being lynched.

Which is oddly enough what I said about Janitor.

[VasudeVa]

Vote: KMD

Let's get a serious bandwagon going on. Still interested in what ooba has to say to my point against him though.

[DrippingGoofball]

1. Her certainty that there would be no Hider claims coming from the remaining four players.

I have no idea where you got this notion. There was no certainty, only an ever-dimming probability.

VLA August 14-18, Caffwagon!

[mith]

"SCUM: expected to be overly skeptical because they

know

I'm making it up." - emphasis mine. I was aware of your response to Troll re: diminishing probability, but it doesn't ring true. (297 sticks out in the stream of posts, actually... Asking if we are assuming no Hiders after assuming no Hiders for your scumhunting leads me to think 286 was a slip, rather than something representing your actual mindset at the time.)

[Kmd4390]

"SCUM: expected to be overly skeptical because they

know

I'm making it up." - emphasis mine. I was aware of your response to Troll re: diminishing probability, but it doesn't ring true. (297 sticks out in the stream of posts, actually... Asking if we are assuming no Hiders after assuming no Hiders for your scumhunting leads me to think 286 was a slip, rather than something representing your actual mindset at the time.)

Actually, that makes more sense now.

[DrippingGoofball]

"SCUM: expected to be overly skeptical because they

know

I'm making it up." - emphasis mine.

That's true; they would only know if there were, indeed, no hiders. I was online several times while the claims were happening, and decided not to post my fakeclaim until it seemed like there wouldn't be a hider. My language was ahead of my calculations, but now I see where you're coming from with this.

[DrippingGoofball]

Further, I was also toying with the idea of claiming to be second hider had one claimed, but a second hider was so idiotic that it would have been too obvious a fake claim. I might have done it anyway - but maybe not, because townies might have been too rightly skeptical. The whole thing begged for a gambit if there was a window of opportunity.

In other news, I'm not getting the KMD wagon at all.

[Zorblag]

Troll has been playing around with ideas to try to reduce the power of the janitor. The clarifications that Mr. Flay made in Post 370 were answers to questions Troll had asked via PM. Unfortunately those answers give Troll very little to work with. We could decide who we would lynch and then no lynch and see if any vigilantes wanted to do that killing for us but that be giving away town kills (unless the janitor was the one being killed) no solves the problem. Trying to rush to a decision seems pretty unlikely to catch the scum off guard but does seem somewhat likely to lead to a worse decision on the part of the town. At this point Troll thinks that we simply want to proceed as normal except that if information about a flip ever be vital it would be better to let vigs do the killing if we have them. That no should come up day one so it no will be an issue for now. Troll will just ask people to keep it in mind so long as the janitor ability no has been used and we no have a dead janitor.

It turns out that the hider claim was slightly beneficial to the town. It no be anything close to game breaking (and arguably the fact that us choosing the janitor as a role wasn't ideal) but scum would probably have been happier if we no currently knew that there were no hiders in the game. Troll would guess that at least one member of the scum team offered opposition to the idea (though that description covers much of the game) and at least one member of the scum team was pushing for us to get done with day zero quickly. Troll also suspects that at least one member of the scum team did get "persuaded" to go with the hider claim along the way. That will mostly be useful for later.

If DrippingGoofball be scum who was fake claiming hider Troll suspects that it wasn't particularly done to in an attempt to get us to pick janitor (we were somewhat likely to do that anyhow.) Troll would guess that there be a pretty good chance that a scum DrippingGoofball simply want with the fake claim because she knew that no one else would claim hider and it would let her cause mischief for a while. That would require that she no was aware of the posts Troll had made about town methods for catching a claimed hider but given Troll's experience with DrippingGoofball on a scum team Troll has very little trouble seeing that happening. In that case the withdrawn claim would be because other members of the scum team pointed out the problems with the plan. In any case, Troll has little trouble seeing DrippingGoofball pulling the gambit as town thinking she was helping but Troll sees no reason to think that she no would do it as scum. Troll would have no problems with a DrippingGoofball lynch at this point.

Kmd4390's failure to claim no seems like it be useful as a scum move. His story about skimming be silly but really, nothing be gained for a scum team by him putting off the claim for as long as he did. It be likely that it was caused by lack of attention regardless of his alignment.

Troll no be sure what mith's problem with My Milked Eek is but Troll's would be the overall lack of content (troubling from anyone) coupled with the unexpected discrepency in claim preferences. Troll thinks that a mass claim would have been slightly better for scum than town and that the hider claim has turned out slightly better. Scum would have known that aspect of the hider claim; the mass claim be less clear. In any case, clearly supporting the mass claim and then opposing the hider claim with no reasons be noteworthy and has easy enough to see scum motivations.

Troll has no problem with what ooba be doing. It seems to be the sort of play Troll expects him to make. Troll also slightly thinks that him would be unlikely to support the hider claim as scum; him might have started more neutral but Troll would guess town based on how him handled it. Troll thinks that ooba's play be something Troll can make sense of based on Troll's limited experience with him.

@mith, Troll believes that Papa Zito would have an attitude like the one him displayed during Day Zero as either town or scum. The decision making process we were going through no be a part of the game he values. Troll would like to think that him would be less likely to actively push for the claim idea to be dropped so we could get on with things if him were town but sadly Troll no be convinced that it be the case. Him would certainly be willing to act like that as scum but Troll no thinks it be a scum tell for him. Right now Troll be feeling like he might be a bit more likely than average to be scum but it probably be irritation. We'll see what he has to say about the janitor as that was a choice of his that surprised Troll a fair amount.

@Elmo, Troll's experience with Ellibereth as town be that him puts too many town on his suspicion lists then as well (Pledge of Allegiance, for example) for reasons that no be particularly good (or transparent) and that him does a relatively poor job of re-examining.

@Papa Zito, what be your opinion about games without alignment reveals? (Mind you, Troll believes Troll knows the answer to that but would prefer that you be the one who shares it now.) What made you pick janitor as one of the two roles you would like to give scum?

VOTE: DrippingGoofball

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[ooba]

Selection not perfectly matching where people went (Zoraster,SpyreX)

- I did not mechanically classify people based on those set of four points. Those points served as a general guideline and then I used my instinct.
- SpyreX, you can " - vibe" under each if it makes you feel better. Do I get the double points?

Why isn't mith in town (elli)

- Look above. While mith did a good job of analyzing the various arguments, I did not find anything that made me go "Hey, thats town"

Why are people who supported massclaiming in town list (Rhinox)

- Frankly, I tried working out the setups + optimal (scum response to claims, town counter) but it was too mindboggling. However, the idea has received very little traction which makes me think scum have discussed this and want to avoid a massclaim. Plus even otherwise, supporting massclaim was against popular opinion when most people where were going "I'll think about massclaim" or "No to massclaim".

You haven't really done anything on your town criteria\fit your own scum criteria (Rhinox, Plum, elmo)

- I did support massclaim and wanted to actually convince people on it but couldn't much headway on any convincing arguments. Even assuming I fit my own scumlist, you'll have to explain why that is vote worthy Plum ...

Your tells aren't valid (Hero)

- Hero, you should realize that I did not go for good analysis=appearing useful=pro-town. I can see scum employing two kind of reactions (a) wait and watch (b) ride the coatails on a plan favorable to them.
- Look above as to how massclaim was never pushed that vehemently. Hence I expect all scum were employing the "a" strategy to that.

elli tell isn't valid (ekim)

- Your point is valid but I still think its a town tell.

Vas, lets see if the above clarifies my reads for you ...

[Herodotus]

@Spy:
Just because you don't use meta as a basis for deciding your town/scum reads doesn't mean you wouldn't be happy with others saying "Spyrex is doing what he would do as town here."

I can't help you regarding your perception of a change in tone. I'm aware of neither the details of the basis for this, nor any reason at all why you would expect scum would change their tone and town wouldn't. Normally I'd point you back to the MD thread in which we commented on this, but I don't see any point to that here.

I see your point about the "1-1" trade. Your further numbers aren't nearly as bad as you're making them out to be. A .25 chance of an extra kill on a PR on each of N1 and N2 is less bad than even a single mislynch that results from not knowing the alignment of a lynched player. (Both scenarios are more complicated than that, involving giving the scum info about failed assassin attempts, and the possibility of multiple resulting mislynches, or lost opportunities to make connections, but we may as well oversimplify.) I still feel that janitor was the strongest role that we could have given to the scum. Consequently, I'll be a bit more suspicious of everyone who was on the janitor wagon.

In other news, I'm not getting the KMD wagon at all.

Some townies are voting him because he's scum.

[populartajo]

Amished is prob town.

Why?

@Tajo: I think I know why you think I'm scum, and you're wrong.

Please elaborate.

Im also having a bad feeling about Vasudeva, that is based on the town meta I recall from him. Vasudeva, could you summarize your meta in one paragraph?

I don't really like ooba's or Elli's play, but I don't think it's scummy; I don't agree with tajo's reason, but I don't mind it - I don't think anyone is strongly committed by it, so "scum don't like to commit themselves" is less valid.

My point was that I really dont see scum forcing to positions in RVS. What ooba has done (assuming he is scum) is to strongly reduce his possibilities to support a well thought wagon on a townie just for the fact that his analysis proved he was town. The fliflop is really painful to write and to make it look sincere.

Tajo is town, but I disagree with most of what he says.

lolwhy?

[populartajo]

DGB, who is scum?

[Herodotus]

Some townies:
I don't expect that Zorblag would have spent time looking for hider claims if he knew there were no hiders. Sure, he could fake it as scum to look productive, but generally anyone asking for claims is taking a risk. So we have a town troll.

Rhinox as town I'm pretty confident of based on meta and his day 0 contribution. It's gut, but it's a strong gut read.

If DGB is town, then Elmo is likely town. DGB already gave one good reason to believe this in 289. Combined with his current vote, I'm liking Elmo for town in this game.

I had a townread on Hoopla during day 0. Others have pointed out the issues with her reaction to DGB's fakeclaim, so I'm leaning more to neutral now.

Tajo and Ooba look like townies.

- I did not mechanically classify people based on those set of four points. Those points served as a general guideline and then I used my instinct.

I also had the impression that your reads were mechanical (with exceptions.) It was that first paragraph of the post that made it seem that way.

So, many of my strongest townreads voted for the janitor, and I consider the janitor wagon suspect. That leaves Spyrex, KMD, DrippingGoofball, Ellibereth, Papa Zito, mith, ekiM, and Amished.

I have mixed thoughts on mith. DGB is living up to her reputation for crazy ideas, but I think the OMGUS on Zoraster may be a good issue to explore while the fakeclaim isn't going to tell us her alignment.

@DGB 385: How is Zoraster trying to make sure you don't hunt scum? Presumably you suspect him -- and you're voting him, and you made an argument against him...

[mith]

populartajo: RVS is an illusion, RVS-in-a-game-with-two-weeks-of-day-0-discussion doubly so. (Also, given that ooba

just said

he wasn't mechanically following a list, I don't think he is giving a locked-into-those-positions vibe. In other words... what Elmo said. Don't find ooba scummy at the moment, but don't find your reasoning valid either.)

Mod:

Could we get some prods? (My Milked Eek is the one I'm specifically waiting on at the moment, but I think there are others not posting.)

Vote: Hoopla

[Mr. Flay]

Per Patrick's rules, I have prodded Slicey and My Milked Eek. Everyone else appears to be within activity guidelines.

[VasudeVa]

Tajo, why do you know about my meta/asking about it? I have never played with you before.

[Herodotus]

Tajo, why do you know about my meta/asking about it? I have never played with you before.

That isn't a very good answer.