/Invitational 11: Pick your Poison 5 (Game Over)

[mith]

Hoopla: I meant the baby, silly. I think mith is a good name for a boy.

Any reasons for any of those suspicions?

I think Papa Zito is badly wrong with his Hider-claim stance (and that should be no surprise to anyone), but I don't find him particularly suspect at the moment. Troll and Papa Zito sound like an old married couple.

[Mr. Flay]

Sixth Vote Count of Day One

Hoopla (7) -- Papa Zito, Amished, mith, ekiM, VasudeVa, Elmo, Plumegranate
Kmd4390 (3) -- Ellibereth, Herodotus, Hoopla
zoraster (2) -- DrippingGoofball, Kmd4390
VasudeVa (2) -- populartajo, ooba
Papa Zito (2) -- Zorblag, Rhinox
DrippingGoofball (1) -- zoraster
Herodotus (1) -- SpyreX

Not Voting (2) -- My Milked Eek, Slicey

With 20 alive, 11 votes will be needed to lynch. Deadline: 25th of August, at 12:30 am US Central Time.

I'm going to have to announce a Pre-emptive V/LA on weekend

That's fine, and I'll make a note of it for the future.

[Herodotus]

Hmm, I am suspicious of Herodotus, Ellibereth, KMD and zoraster. That is my guess at the scumteam, so far. I'll keep you updated, I suppose.

It's one thing to suspect each of KMD, Elli, and me, but considering voting patterns, I don't see much reason to propose that we are all scum together.


On the subject of relations, I think PZ and KMD could both be scum. Or just one, but I doubt that neither is.

[VasudeVa]

@Rhinox
I move my vote where I think it needs to be. Besides, bandwagoning is a legitimate strategy D1. I switch my vote to whoever has the biggest wagon that interests me, with the intent to pressure and in turn gather more accurate information.

@Tajo:
It's a pretty legit question. I've never played with you before, and why you're saying that you know about me raises eyebrows. Also link to whatever that game is.

[Amished]

Current theory is that there are one or two hiders out there who were smart enough not to claim despite all the noise in the thread about them. I guess we'll see.

Yay, 2nd scum with Hoopla. Are you retarded? If a hider claimed, we wouldn't give the scum a roleblocker. Therefore, the only way that they can die is by lynching or hiding behind scum. If they claimed hider later in the game; after the hider claim that just happened, they would get lynched and stop being useful at all. Don't try to give yourself (or your scum buddies) a way to fake-claim a powerful role like that later on and thinking that you wouldn't get caught.

[Herodotus]

@Tajo:
It's a pretty legit question. I've never played with you before, and why you're saying that you know about me raises eyebrows. Also link to whatever that game is.

The problem is that you dodged the question he asked you, even as you acknowledged it.

Im also having a bad feeling about Vasudeva, that is based on the town meta I recall from him.

Vasudeva, could you summarize your meta in one paragraph?

(emphasis added)

Tajo, why do you know about my meta/asking about it? I have never played with you before.

Also, even if you've never played in a game together, that doesn't mean he hasn't read a game you played or played with you using a different account.

vote: VasudeVa

Consider that pressure to provide a decent answer and to explain the lack of answer earlier.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla: I meant the baby, silly. I think mith is a good name for a boy.

I was talking about this exact thing on scumchat a couple of weeks ago with Korts and Primate - we were trying to figure out the best names for a baby using someone's screenname. I liked Shanba, Sotty, Vi and Ythill as names. I think Spyrex could be good for a boy.

[Hoopla]

by the way,

unvote, vote: herodotus

[zoraster]

Thx Flay. At least one of these guys is scum.

DGB, Elmo, KMD, Plum, Rhinox and Zoraster.

Remember to isolate Tajo when you are in endgame and POE gives you a name out of this list.

Probability of getting at least one scum right by picking six people completely randomly: ~75%.

zoraster: which is more scummy: defense of something that's anti-town (somewhat scummy) by another player, or an anti-town action by a lone player. That should give you enough information.

I'm not sure what you mean. It seems to me it really depends on the specific situation. But probably the latter.

---
So anyway. I think it's unfortunate DGB went AWOL at a pretty crucial point. If she was going to @!#@$ make a dumb gambit, she needs to be around to discuss it. Regardless, the game goes on, and it's not scummy she's going to Caffwagon.

Papa zito to me comes across as more frustrating than scummy. I reserve the right to revise that, but so far he just comes across as kind of an asshole.

Hoopla, usually pretty collected and thoughtful in her posts has become more and more incoherent. Hoopla: why herod?

MME needs to step up and actually answer because he or she clearly has no idea what's going on in the game.

I'm looking for another place to go with my vote, but for now DGB feels firmly like the clearest choice, and she returns soon. So it returns unless I can get a bead on someone else. But I think now that she's returning, DGB needs to feel some more lynch pressure.

[Ellibereth]

@Elli: The janitor wagon is suspect because the ability, even one shot, is more powerful than any of the others.

arughawagaerg I thought we settled this sort of stuff D1...
But looking at D0 town obv had disagreements about what was most powerful, so scum maybe had different ideas about what was strongest etc.
I mean, I would bet there was at least one scum on each of the voting-for-a-role wagons just because but not one particuarily bad. Or we won't until we get an idea of what Pr's we have. Yeah.

[Ellibereth]

VASSSSSSSS, ARE YOU TOWN?
HAVE PEOPLE ASKED YOU FOR YOUR META BEFORE???

[Mr. Flay]

After almost 8 days of not posting and failing to respond to two prods, Slicey is being replaced.

[My Milked Eek]

Mod

I apologize for my lack of posting. My inlaws are renovating their cabin in the woods (since last Sat/Sun) and I have absolutely no Internet there (let alone electricity). I expected to be home at least once every day, but that appears not to be manageable due to the work load and capability concerning transport and time management (at least up until this point it hasn't been) (only home right now to re-enroll for college). I expect the renovations to end the first weekend of September (4-5) so either I announce a V/LA for the first game day or I'll find a (temporarily(?)) replacement? Whatever seems best for the mod. Once more, my apologies for a lack of clearness about this, but things went differently than I expected...

If the mod gives a green light for a vla until then, I'll check the current state of the game tomorrow and post whenever I can/am home.
Responding via PM. --Flay

[populartajo]

WHY IS VASUDEVA STILL ALIVE?

[populartajo]

Also what is the case on Hoopla?

[populartajo]

Thx Flay. At least one of these guys is scum.

DGB, Elmo, KMD, Plum, Rhinox and Zoraster.

Remember to isolate Tajo when you are in endgame and POE gives you a name out of this list.

I don't know if you meant this as a joke or serious, but you realize that mathematically, if you pick any random 6 people in a 20 player game in which there are 4 scum, there is an 80% chance that at least 1 of those 6 players are scum. Unless you feel being prodded is a scum tell, you might as well have picked 6 names at random.

In a game with this amount of superstars and at the pace we are going, there has to be at least one lurking.

Yes I know that silly stuff about 1 of 6 players is scum blah blah blah. What I did was to give a DEFINED list of players. Random can kiss my ass. In endgame, every reason to decide your vote counts and adding green to this defined list (with town flips) should be helpful in the long run.

[zoraster]

Thx Flay. At least one of these guys is scum.

DGB, Elmo, KMD, Plum, Rhinox and Zoraster.

Remember to isolate Tajo when you are in endgame and POE gives you a name out of this list.

I don't know if you meant this as a joke or serious, but you realize that mathematically, if you pick any random 6 people in a 20 player game in which there are 4 scum, there is an 80% chance that at least 1 of those 6 players are scum. Unless you feel being prodded is a scum tell, you might as well have picked 6 names at random.

In a game with this amount of superstars and at the pace we are going, there has to be at least one lurking.

Yes I know that silly stuff about 1 of 6 players is scum blah blah blah. What I did was to give a DEFINED list of players. Random can kiss my ass. In endgame, every reason to decide your vote counts and adding green to this defined list (with town flips) should be helpful in the long run.

I was just saying that acting like you'll be proven super-smart at the end if one of your six is scum is, well, not that impressive. If you get 3 or 4 scum in your list, on the other hand, I'll be impressed! It wasn't really a game comment so much as a, "well, i'm not sure this is brag worthy if you're right and one is scum."

[DrippingGoofball]

Hi guys, just got back from Caffwagon, 13 hour drive to get home, doing some laundry, will post tomorrow.

[populartajo]

Zoraster, can you explain in two sentences why you want to lynch DGB?

[mith]

(FWIW, from the point of view of a pro-town player, each other player has a ~21% chance of being scum at the start of this game. If the given pro-town player were given absolute certainty that among 6 of the other players there is at least one scum, the chances of each of those players being scum increases to ~26%. It's not a large gain, but it's not negligible, either.

There are other problems with this method: tajo could be scum, it's a pretty arbitrary snapshot of "lurkers", and when he says "there has to be at least one lurking" it's really just a rhetorical exaggeration of "there is a good chance at least one is lurking".)

populartajo: Re: 514, read the thread you lazy bum.

For those who actually have been following my back-and-forth with Hoopla, am I correct in feeling that Hoopla is dodging my "why?" question (which I've asked three times now)? Is this normal for her, playstyle-wise?

[Herodotus]

@Elli: The janitor wagon is suspect because the ability, even one shot, is more powerful than any of the others.

arughawagaerg I thought we settled this sort of stuff D1...

(I assume you mean D0.)
That's a cop-out. We settled what PR's the scum would get, but not what roles would be least bad for the town. Do you say on day 2 of your games "well, we settled the day 1 lynch on D1. So let's not analyze the wagon."

But looking at D0 town obv had disagreements about what was most powerful, so scum maybe had different ideas about what was strongest etc.

Yes, that's possible. But frequently the group of people who do the most harm to the town overlap significantly with the group of people who are scum.
(For instance, if anyone other than DGB had fakeclaimed hider, I'd probably be voting them, because it seems like a net anti-town action. In this case I specifically believe that she might do what she did as town.)

I mean, I would bet there was at least one scum on each of the voting-for-a-role wagons just because but not one particuarily bad. Or we won't until we get an idea of what Pr's we have. Yeah.

The successful ones, at least. Yes, that's likely.

[Papa Zito]

I'll respond to some of this goofiness tomorrow.

[zoraster]

Zoraster, can you explain in two sentences why you want to lynch DGB?

Sure:

DGB made her anti-town "gambit" without any real calculation on whether it was helpful to the town, but she reasoned (correctly, it seems) that a "gambit" almost always comes across as pro-town, even when its substance is decidedly not. DGB is absolutely capable of using such a ploy, and we should not allow scummy behavior to slip by just because it comes from an chaotic player.

[Rhinox]

In a game with this amount of superstars and at the pace we are going, there has to be at least one lurking.

Maybe, but being prodded != lurking, all the time. And all lurkers do not necessarily get prodded. Or maybe I'm wrong. {DGB, Elmo, KMD, Plum, Rhinox and Zoraster.} can you give me reasons why each of these 6 players are lurking?

In response to Rhinox's post:
If multiple townies are lurking, it's likely that one or more scum will decide they may as well lurk too, so I agree with PT. Even if it doesn't help a lot yet.

Same question as above.

@Rhinox
I move my vote where I think it needs to be. Besides, bandwagoning is a legitimate strategy D1. I switch my vote to whoever has the biggest wagon that interests me, with the intent to pressure and in turn gather more accurate information.

ok... what is/was so interesting about zoraster, KMD, and Hoopla as wagons? Why was your Ooba vote the only one that did come with a reason? Its the 1 out of your 4 votes thats different, and inconsistencies like that interest me.

[Amished]

So zoraster: What was so anti-town about the gambit in your eyes?