Scummies Invitational (OVER!!!)

[Mr. Flay]

As you regroup to discuss, leaving Seraphim's slightly slicey body hanging from one of the wings of the stage, a rumbling noise burrows into your eardrums. Discussion grinds to a halt as the girders on the right side of the stage collapse one by one, like some sort of cheap slow-mo Hollywood effect. A resounding clang half-deafens you as the entire assembly gives way, burying Seraphim's body in a pile of steel and velvet. The lights fade to black as the intercom sizzles into life:

"

You think you're so good, do you? Lucky for you we only have one of these little red STOP buttons...

"

The lynches, and the Day, have been stopped prematurely.

Slicey, replaced by Seraphim,

Mafia Goon

, was lynched Day Two.

It is now Night Two. Choices should be sent to both myself and Patrick; deadline for all night actions is August 21st, 8:00pm CDT.

[Mr. Flay]

The house lights come up on a grisly scene. Two fewer of you breathe this ... morning? Afternoon? What time IS it, anyway? How much time has passed since this nightmare started? In any case, two corpses decorate the amphitheater. On the stage, SpyreX appears to have been garrotted with a piece of piano wire, his body left splayed just behind the podium as if he had been drinking too much. But in the back row, you find vollkan's body bent and broken, hanging over one of the seats like a discarded coat. While you're searching the bodies, the public address system crackles back on:

"

Tit for tat, little mice. One of us for one of you, and we still hold mith in our clutches. You may be winnowing the chaff from the wheat, but a lucky break does not a decision make.

"

SpyreX,

Townie

, was killed Night Two.
vollkan,

Mafia Daystopper

, was killed Night Two.

It is now Day Three. With 10 alive, 6 votes will be enough to lynch. The deadline for lynches will be Sept. 4th, 9:00pm CDT.

[Incognito]

Hi. Anyone aside from me thinking mass claim?

[q21]

Well fuck me I'm awesome.

Also, I'm pretty much a vanilla townie now.

[mykonian]

Hi. Anyone aside from me thinking mass claim?

I wouldn't mind discussing who we think is scum first. If we get massclaim, that'll tell us something about the order in which it should happen.

Further, strategy is needed. Are we going to random lynch everybody who isn't ubertowny, or are we going to lynch one person and assume we are accurate again?

Rereading the game, I get very good vibes from KMD's early game, while Imaginality is on top of my scumlist.

VOTE: Imaginality

[Incognito]

Well, without rereading, my thoughts so far are as follows ("prob-towns" are ones I feel more confident about):

# Hoopla - was thinking scum Yesterday, but her mind-change with respect to me and her vote on Slicey make me think she could be town
# Kmd4390 - prob-town
# imaginality - ?
# Ojanen - prob-town
# curiouskarmadog - town?
# q21 - prob-town
# mykonian - prob-town
# Tenchi - town?
# populartajo - town?

I'm thinking we were most likely dealing with 4 scums. If we have anyone who could be cleared via some kind of an investigation of the sort or something along those lines, we could more easily figure out who should be in our potential lynch pool Today. With the death of vollkan-PR scum, we now know we have as many lynches as we want to use from.

And yeah, to me, imaginality seems like the most likely right now too given issues I cited Yesterday, process of elimination, and vibes.

vote: imaginality

[Hoopla]

Well, I was totally wrong with my 3:12 prediction - we must be either in a 3:1:11 or a 4:11. I speculated earlier in the game, that it'd be a pretty powerful scumteam in a 4:11 if they had some sort of day-stopping ability. I don't think the lights-out mechanic is as strong the mods of this game obviously think if we're in a 4:11, as we've been lucky with some accurate night kills. At this point, I'd say we almost certainly HAVE to lynch q21 to cover the 3:1:11 possibility. Even though it only feels like a 15-20% chance of being true, I think it's a strong enough chance not to take when we have this many lynches up our sleeve.

If we're playing in a 4:11, we must have some decent power to offset this, and I think I'm siding with Incognito, that it might we a worthwhile play to massclaim today. We

should

only need to find one scum in all of this, and if we can manage to confirm 2/3 townies, we can lynch through the list of non-confirmed players to catch the scum. Even if this process happens over the course of two days, by using one more night to confirm roles/results, if we can confirm 2 people as town at any point, this mechanic lets us win the game, with nothing existing to stop us lynching through the entire player list.

[Hoopla]

I wouldn't mind discussing who we think is scum first. If we get massclaim, that'll tell us something about the order in which it should happen.

Further, strategy is needed. Are we going to random lynch everybody who isn't ubertowny, or are we going to lynch one person and assume we are accurate again?

Yes, strategy is needed. As in, an agenda, to ensure we have enough time to do everything we need to do, because today will require more activity than previous days if we're squeezing in a massclaim, speculation on who is confirmed/how we can confirm players and then leaving enough time to crash through a big bag of lynches if necessary.

I'll take a stab at crafting today's plan;

Most importantly, we need to decide if massclaim is the best strategy to take today. If it isn't, we need to figure out how many lynches we're going to use. I, for one, heartily endorse massclaim now that we've got the Daystopper role out of the way, and the rest of my plan works off the assumption that this is the path we take. At most, this process needs to take 48 hours (ideally less), and like mykonian said, we should state our suspects before we begin, to try and get the scum closer to the beginning of the claim. So, what I propose we do;

1) Support/Unsupport massclaim in your next post. Couple this with your top two suspects, and top two town reads. Order of massclaim is decided on the basis of a point system - top town read = 2 points. Second town read = 1 point. And vice versa for your two scumreads, with those two reads obviously removing points. This system is a good, quick way to work out general suspicions of everyone, and doubles as an order generator for massclaim, as popcorning has flaws (one idiot/obscure read is all it takes to put scum in the top half).

2 days.

2) Tally up points from the quick and dirty suspect lists, and craft order from scummiest to towniest. We then massclaim.

2 days

.

3a) Depending on what we discover from this massclaim, depends entirely on our strategy. If we can't confirm someone, we should be making lynches that can give us information for tomorrow based on what they flip, and finish the game then, unless we discover a reason to take this to Day 5.

3b) If we can confirm 2/3 townies somehow, we can mass-lynch through the list for a guarenteed win - the only way we lose in this scenario, is if we are too slow and don't get through the whole list. We are wrong in our confirming of someone. Or there are somehow 5 scum in this game. None of this should happen if we are sensible and swift, though.

I've left Step 3 unchecked time-wise, because it is largely situational, but we need to be getting through the first two steps ASAP regardless of what we decide to do after. It's pivotal that we leave ourself enough time to consider going for the mass-lynch win today if we discover this is the right play.

[Hoopla]

As a show of good faith, I'll start us off;

Support massclaim

Town reads:
+2: Ojanen
+1: mykonian

Scum reads:
-2: KMD
-1: populartajo

[populartajo]

VLA for a couple of days.

Sorry Spyrex.

Imag is town. I can go with KMD. Hoops, why Ojanen obvtown?

I agree with massclaim.

[Incognito]

I support massclaim (obviously).

My top town reads are probably Kmd and mykonian. I really don't see why Kmd is even being considered at this point - he and vollkan were at each other's necks for pretty much the whole game. And with vollkan flipping scum PR, I can't see why Kmd would continuously stick with a voll-vote Day after Day when there've been plenty of other people he could have easily jumped to. Distancing/bussing is possible, but I just don't see it right now.

My scummier reads: imaginality and... I can't really think of a second one right now.

tajo, why is imaginality town?

[Incognito]

Also, still not seeing q21 as an SK for reasons I've mentioned previously.

[curiouskarmadog]

i would like to note here, that I was wrong about slicey, emp, and vollkan...having an awesome show here for the scummies game....needless to say I guess I have either been distracted (I AM NEW DAD!!!!) OR play better as scum. Maybe I wasnt wrong as much as I liked other people's lynch (spy, tenchi, and Imagin) over them.

at any rate, posting will be spotty (mom and babe are sleeping).

fine with massclaim

[Kmd4390]

Ok, process of elimination gives me Imaginality, Hoopla, and Ojanen as suspects.

Wait, no. Not Hoopla. Because Vollkan was scum.

-------------------

Meh, fine with massclaim I guess.

Top Scum:
-2 Imaginality
-1 Ojanen

Top Town:
+2 q21
+1 CKD

[Ojanen]

Support massclaim

Top town
+2 mykonian
+1 Hoopla

top scum:
need to reread some yesterday, will post in a sec.
subgroup imaginality, Tenchi is what I'm thinking first but there's more nebulous people.

I know I'm not "supposed" to say this but I'm still amused that kmd thinks I'm scum.

I thought the timing of the stopping of yesterday was surprising from the scum, but let me check the circumstances again.

[Tenchi]

I support a mass claim except for the Doctor. I am not thinking about lynching Hoopla today, likely cleared after that flip.

[q21]

Okay, so last night my kill list came down to vollkan and imaginality. Vollkan was there because his defence of tajo from my contradiction point seemed off. It wasn't a hard point to defend against and in the end it made me put pop back into the neutral pile... but the defence offered by vollkan just didn't sit right with me. I couldn't decide if it was defending a scumbuddy, or defending a townie to earn town cred, either way I felt it was scummy. In the end vollkan won (or lost depending how you look at it) because he wasn't on the Slicey lynch and imaginality was. Here is why I suspected considered imag and why I'd still be willing to vote him.

Why I don't have any votes on me I'm not sure. In a short-deadline game like this, consistent activity is pretty important. DING, hypocrisy? No: I wasn't lurking strategically but I accept that even non-scummy lurking is antitown, and if need be I'll seek replacement rather than slip behind again.

Reading up now.

To start with there's this where he's calling himself out for something in the hope, I think, that therefore no one else will call him out for it and the situation will blow over.

* q21's random-vote for Empking seems slightly weaselly, hoping for a policy-based wagon to start up?

This seems slightly incongruous with this:

Now time to hedge my bets with an Empking vote.

random votes with smileys are 17.4%* more likely to come from scum trying to make people like them.


*Objective accuracy of statistic is not guaranteed in all countries. Consult your local soothsayer.

He moves from joking to more serious suspicion. My feeling is that he's trying to add as much validity as he can to the q21 vote he makes very shortly after this.

Kinetic, earlier you said: "I do think its inevitable that [Empking] will be lynched even if its not today." So it seems your concern about leaving him 'til D2 or so boils down to the "it distracts from scumhunting" angle. I just don't see why that should be the case. With single lynch games, it wastes a day. With this game, it's easy enough to say, "blah blah, vote X, oh and p.s. empking is still useless, let's lynch him too". It's just whereas for some players, our attitude D2 will be "we will lynch you if you're scummy, but not lynch you if you're neutralish or pro-town," with Empking it might well be a higher threshold, more of a, "we will lynch you if you're scummy or neutralish, but not lynch you if you're highly pro-town." It's not using policy-lynching instead of in-game knowledge, it's using it to judge whether the in-game knowledge is sufficiently strong in his case for him to avoid being lynched.

To further reduce possibilities of discussion being derailed, we might want to consider pseudo-voting tomorrow; it could make sense in this setup anyhow. We can all pseudo-vote/unvote multiple players if we want to, and once any player gets enough pseudovotes to hit the lynch threshold, we lynch them for real. That will make it easier to spot any scum players who use "let's lynch Empking" as an alternative to scumhunting or listing other suspects.

Or are you worried that a cop will have an innocent result on him and we'll have to let him stay alive and he'll lose it for town in endgame? I imagine our cop, if we have one, will investigate someone else, to avoid exactly that dilemma.

In any case, if you want him lynched today, why not come help us lynch q21 first and then we can talk more.

Tow things about this post. One is that its a defence of Empking. The other is that the plan he suggests has a significant flaw in it: It will slow down lynches. Even if the second (actual) lynch happens relatively quickly this plan still requires that someone receive a majority of votes

twice

in order to be lynched. In this game that extra time is decidedly anti-town.

Unvote

Incognito's not scum. I wanted to see how he and others responded to this wagon on him. His response feels pretty genuine to me.

I think Ojanen's post is good, and I'm keen to read the 'more stuff' in her next post, especially re. SpyreX = town. I looked back on another game I was in with him and he was more active and helpful as town in that one, so I'm starting to have my doubts about him here.

More from me later.

You're only starting to have your doubts about Spyrex here? Then explain for me this post from 4 days earlier:

Myko, I want that damn reason about Spyrextown in your next post.

Seconded.

Seconding a demand from someone who was adamant that Spyrex was scum would imply that you were at this point at least a little suspicious of Spyrex.

Some things that didn't really affect my view of imaginality last night, but that I think I'd like to raise today:

Ran short of time this weekend, grr. The more from me will be tomorrow. For now, I'm happy to see Tenchi lynched:

Vote: Tenchi

Agree with the posts above: ckd's self-vote feels genuine. I'm definitely not in favour of lynching Ojanen either, and I have no desire to lynch q21 (though there's still a possible SK concern there, so he's worth keeping an eye on). Not so strongly town about Hoopla but think there plenty scummier players to occupy us today at least.

I think at least one of Slicey and SpyreX is scum but probably not both, and I lean much more towards Slicey there; happy to lynch him.

I think probably one of myko or Vollkan is scum, and lean slightly more towards myko. Also I noticed Empking speak up in myko's defence at one point and I think he's more likely to have done that for a scumbuddy.

Kmd and tajo I'm feeling fairly neutral about. Between the two of them I'd lynch Kmd first.

The two paragraphs in the middle. Picks one scum right and one scum wrong - notably its the scum PR that he picks wrong... This is exactly the kind of play I expect from scum. When the scumbuddy you picked right flips scum it gives more credence to your town read on the other.

Where is my case? If you don't want to post it, you can leave it, but you are going to say something about it.

I'm going to leave it for now while we focus on getting a few more obvious lynches done today.

Can we see this case now? Or do you not actually have a case?

Not voting now because I think that mass claim needs to come first... which means that, yes, I support a mass claim.

Scum
-2 Imaginality
-1 populartajo (the flips of vollkan and Spyrex having me leaning this way again)

I don't usually do town reads, but since it was the reasoning of these two that derailed the incog lynch onto a successful scum lynch of Slicey:
+2 Ojanen
+1 Hoopla

[Tenchi]

Town reads:
+2: Mykonian
+1: Incognito

Scum reads:
-2: imaginality
-1: populartajo

Still need to do a thorough PBP. This is just by skimming and checking the vote tallies.

[Ojanen]

You know what I'm too tired for this right now. I'll come back tomorrow to comb the thread for the newly dead scum relations and general rereading.

Kinetic has been lynched (by

vollkan, Slicey, Empking

, Incognito, imaginality, populartajo,

SpyreX, Kinetic

)

Haha.

Hypothesis about deadline-inconsequential scum so far correct.

SpyreX (2) - populartajo,

Slicey

Incognito (5) - mykonian, Hoopla, q21, Ojanen, SpyreX, imaginality
imaginality (1) - curiouskarmadog

missing

Empking, vollkan

, Tenchi, Incognito, Kmd

populartajo is an interesting one because he has been on the scums' side on almost everything flipped so far on a glance and has benefited scum a bit too much. Yet he reads more as macho town.

TENCHI, why Incog-obvtown?

[Tenchi]

Its a little bit bias because I find myself agreeing with most/all of what he says. Also, the recent mass claim proposal. Also, the wagon during D1, I don't trust the proponents of it.

But now that I look into t it, both wagons formed at the same time, but all three scum chose to vote Kinetic.

[Tenchi]

Tajo, can you explain why my reasons for voting Slicey "shitty"?

[Hoopla]

Its a little bit bias because I find myself agreeing with most/all of what he says. Also, the recent mass claim proposal. Also, the wagon during D1, I don't trust the proponents of it.

But now that I look into t it, both wagons formed at the same time, but all three scum chose to vote Kinetic.

If anything, that's a slightly incriminating turn of events for Incognito.

[Ojanen]

I'm not in the mood for the reread right now I'll throw the quick and dirty first impression of -2 imaginality and -1 Tenchi here to get the show off the road asap. We have a healthy sized band of obvtown here and this game should be an easy PoE win.

Support massclaim: Hoopla, Incognito, tajo, ckd, Kmd, Ojanen, Tenchi (except for the doctor?), q21
mykonian said he wanted to talk about suspects more before massclaim, although that was before Hoopla's proposed plan and he hasn't been here since.
missing: imaginality

----
myko +1 (Hoops) +1 (Incog) +2 (Oj) +2 (Tenchi) = 6
Oj +2 (Hoops) -1 (kmd) +2 (q21) = 3
Hoops +1 (Oj) +1 (q21) = 2
q21 +2 (kmd) = 2
ckd +1 (kmd) = 1
Incog +1 (Tenchi) = 1
kmd -2 (Hoops) +2 (Incog)= 0
Tenchi -1 (Oj) = -1
tajo -1 (Hoops) -1 (q21) -1 (Tenchi) = -3
imaginality -2 (Incog) -2 (kmd) -2 (q21) -2 (Tenchi) -2 (Oj)= -10

Above could contain a mistake, not triple-checked.
No listed suspects from ckd, imaginality.
myko thinks imaginality scum - another +2 could be counted on behalf of that.
tajo said he could see kmd scum and that imaginality is town. He is also VLA for a few days, perhaps not online for early slot in massclaim then.

[Ojanen]

EBWOP myko thinks imaginality scum - another

-2

could be counted on behalf of that.

[mykonian]

nice, that list.

Seen that Hoopla is convinced we can lynch fast enough to end this game today if we have one or two confirmed players, I'll claim.

I'm a 2-shot town powerrole cop. I can find out if someone is a town powerrole or not. This means town powerroles will be my confirmed innocents.

Tajo and Q21 are

town

powerroles

.

Seen that tajo that the flips this day made tajo somewhat an easy target for scum, I wanted to know who suspected him. Ojanen her read on Tajo was

very accurate

confirm vote imaginality