Okay!
Time for some mafia theory/other stuff.
If you find something to be off, please correct me on it, this is just based off of my experience (and mostly based off of RL game theory)
This game has 24 players
That means in order for there to be balance there should be somewhere between 5 and 7 scum. (I'm
assuming
hoping that there's not SK's or third parties and that this game is balanced)
If there were 5 scum I could guess that there are either 2 teams, one with 2 and one with 3 scum or 1 team with all 5.
If there is a group of 2 and 3 I would assume that they both have kills (in order to progress the game a bit faster/ give the scum a bit more of a chance) Also, the group of 3 would have a roleblocker.
Out of the 19 players, there would probably only be between 5 and 8 PR's, because of the theory that less can often be more because town can oftentimes cause themselves problems by multiple PRs targeting the same target.
In a basic setup I could see 2 cops, 2 doc, and 1 vig. If there are more, I can see a group of 3 masons (confirmed or unconfirmed, but more than likely all town) and/or 1 town RBer
If they are all 5 scum together, then I can see 2 NK abilities, one RBer and possibly (if there are masons) 1 scum in a mason group
If there was a group of 6, it would be 3 and 3 and the only difference to 2 and 3 I would see is if there were masons, then one would be scum and he would be in the group without the RBer
If there is a group of 7, they are probably 1 full group with 2 NK abilities, 1-2 RBers, and possible ready-given fake claims (as a group of 7 would be easier to catch because they all know of each other)
With this as the case, I see almost no chance of masons, and instead and extra cop, and at least 1 town RBer
So, in any of these scenarios, there should be no more than 3 NK's per night.
Note: I doubt that there are masons, but the possibility is there.
I also doubt two teams of 2 and 3 because scum CAN cross-kill, making it highly unbalanced, at least for the team of 2.
Okay, so now that that is all said, cops should not counter claim because there are probably as few as 2 and as great as 3 cops in this game.
There is almost definitely at least 2 protective roles, but I feel that Dana should not be protected tonight as for a WIFOM case stated here:
If dana is scum, it will become more apparent
If he is not, scum will either
A leave him and try to get us to lynch him
B NK him
If he is left alone (either because he's scum or town) we should wait to lynch him until about D3 or 4 when we can be positive he is scum, or a cop can investigate him and breadcrumb but not claim his read on him until at least D3 or 4. If you get lynched/NK'd then we can look back and find your crumbs as we will know then that you are a cop.
If he is NK'd then scum helped themselves a bit, but not by much because as I said, there are probably 2 cops.
Frank and Wraith are almost definitely scum together, but I will have to wait and see if there are 1 or 2 scumgroups (After a 3rd or 4th scum flip, or until I see where the NK's go, and how many there are.) but I am willing to bet that it is a single scumgroup of 7.
Okay, now I shouldn't be posting much more theory in this game until at least D2, but probably until D4, depending on the chain of events.
Now back to the game.
