A Clash of Kings - A Divided Kingdom

[Axelrod]

My time is looking to be very limited again due to R/L commitments. I expect I will be able to check the thread at least briefly most days, but I won't be able to make any kind of substantial posts until these commitments are finished.

[CSL]

Ending V/LA early. Note that all my time on weekends is reserved for modding.

[Eddard Stark]

Vote Count 4.3 - The

"Gods and dogs alike delight to piss on me."

Votecount

SSBF (3) - Macavitar, Unsight, CSL.

CSL (1) - Mikujin
Unsight (1) - MagnaOfIllusion

Axelrod (2) - Locke Lamora, diddin

Not Voting (6) Mina, Thor665, Axelrod, Super Smash Bros. Fan, RichardGHP, hasdgfas.

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch. If a majority is reached the person with the second most votes will also be simultaneously lynched.

Deadline is Midnight EST on the 5th of September, with a countdown available here

[CSL]

VOTE: SSBF

-sigh-

NOTED AND FIXED THANKS

[Super Smash Bros. Fan]

@CSL: So CSL, do you have anything else to say today? You have said very little in this game Day 3 and Day 4.

[Eddard Stark]

Mikujin, Mina and Richard have been prodded.

[Thor665]

I'm thinking we're all slowing down on posting because we don't have enough excitement in our universe.

Vote: CSL

I'll admit everyone with votes on them looks like a pretty tasty lynch option today. Probably the only one I'm uncertain about is SSBF, but I'm really conflicted on my read there and don't have a strong opinion yet. I think I would like to see CSL be one of our flips today - he's playing like Richard without even being semi-cleared like Richard, and I almost want to lynch Richard for how he's playing, so I'm thinking let's make sure CSL is in the lynch discussion today.

[MagnaofIllusion]

And now I need to go back and try to remember why I though you were town, terrible as that post was.

This was a recent post re: Macavitar.

So, without looking deeper, I would say this post of Magna's raises a Red Flag. Call me narcisistic, but here I have made at least two fairly substantial posts, which he has almost completely ignored in order to make a bunch of largely irrelevant points and which appears to be desiged to do nothing more than cast dirt on me.

So you are making a snap decision – without looking deeper – that I’m making a scummy attack on you? This post, combined with your previously quoted post, shows you are clearly either a narcissist on Benmage’s scale or scumtastic. You are attacking everyone who dares to question your posting. The points I raised in that post are hardly irrelevant.

That remark of mine was a throwaway. Stream of consciousness remark in a series of posts I was making. You know it. I was expressing an opinion, but it really didn't have a lot to do with anything going on in the game. Not entirely unlike my earlier off game rant at Drippereth. But this, of all things, is what you focus on?

If it was a throw-away comment with no game relevance why make it? I commented on it because I don’t see a Pro-Town motivation for posting it. It just serves to fluff up the volume of your posts or to excuse why you aren’t building cases based on interactions and past play.

How about that 50% chance you are scum?

How about it? Your post 2024 is a POE exercise. It is perhaps a starting point but there’s no analysis in there at all. You cobble together some assumptions based on game events and reads and come up with a list of people who statistically might be scum. But your post is only as good as the assumptions you use.

I could make a similar post based on my reads an you would end up in a group of people who are statistically have a 50% chance of being scum. I will not be in that group in my analysis because I know I am innocent and thus excluded from my suspect pool.

Your post should be the starting point from which you dig into the ISOs of said players and look for scum-tells and interactions. Yet you are treating it as if it is a strong analytical post. It's not.

What are you even talking about. I said - in the very post you have quoted - that maybe Unsight and Mac could be on the same team. But the way Mac cast his vote leads me away from drawing that conclusion. It didn't look like someone trying to "protect" his buddy. It didn't look like somone aggrresively trying to drive an alternate wagon. It was like "hey, lets do this and see what happens!"

Here is your statement that I highlighted –

As I said before, I don't really think that scum would have all that much incentive to go pushing a mis-lynch on Rifka close to deadline when someone else not on their team was already on the hook.

Again for the record – if Mac and Unsight are on the same team (ie Greyjoys) he has every reason to make a vote on an alternate wagon. Simply by making a 4th vote on the Rifka Mac creates more legitimacy to the wagon. He doesn’t have to blatant push anything.

And before this gets taken out of context I am not stating an opinion about Mac being a possible scum partner Unsight. I am simply stating how the thought process behind your Town assessment of the vote is weak.

In general 2018 looks less like an attempt at game analysis and more like an attempt to buddy up to a group of players perceived as Town. The only player whose vote you find fault with is from Diddin.

Locke has stated the by flavor Diddin is almost certainly not a Greyjoy. And it seems ludicrous to assume Diddin is a Lannister with Unsight based on the three Lannister flips. So what is his scum motivation to move to what turned out to be a mis-lynch? Especially given that Locke has stated he would move to Unsight to prevent a no-lynch. Diddin can’t be protecting a partner based on the flavor issue (and on this I defer to those with more knowledge). If he is scum he should have just waited out deadline and let Locke hammer Unsight.

So, Magna, why do you trust your opinion of the likely setup enough to potentially give up the game if you're wrong?

Because I trust my judgement and reasoning. Seriously, what sort of response are you expecting? And no, the conclusion that SSBF “must be lynched” under a scenario does not trump my conclusion that that I think we are under a 3-3-0-1 or 4-4-0-0 scenario. In terms of expected value the percentage chance I attribute to the scenarios where he must be lynched are so small they total expected outcome for me is ‘Do Not Lynch’ SSBF.

If you don’t agree with my logic don’t follow it. More than a majority of the players in the game would need to agree (given 2 lynches today) for SSBF not to be lynched.

That wasn't meant to be scumhunting. That was meant to be information for the town after I died.

And yet you posted the list again today after Daybreak. And still your contribution to the thread consist of your read list with no support and slandering me. No scum-hunting to be seen.

You're the scum here and it shows in your case which has amounted to a load of piss-poor accusations from distancing drippereth to fence-sitting with dana as well as your tendency to ignore every post where I shot them down. That's not the play of someone hunting scum, it's the play of someone angling for a mislynch while conveniently avoiding other wagons.

This amounts to a “No U” response. I don’t ignore you posts, but just because you form some half-hearted defense doesn’t mean I am required to find it credible.

To accuse me of not scum-hunting when all you do is pretty much play defend yourself and make no cases (just lists with pretty colors) is ludicrous.

And what wagons again am I avoiding? It’s not like I had to be dragged kicking and screaming like you to the only scum lynch (dana) we have had so far.

And to address your repeated accusations that I ‘invented’ the Third scumteam theory here is the reason why I consider you as believing that theory –

I don't buy that. I think the Day 1 oddity with MacCavityLock suggests that both are mafia.

So you think there's a third scumteam?

Or SSBF is just lying.

Your response to Locke at 1844 clearly indicates you believe it a possibility. So please stop saying I ‘make crap up’ when it is based on your own posting.

MOD – I’ll be V/LA from 4pm EDT today until Monday morning. I will be out of town with my family and have zero internet access.

[Super Smash Bros. Fan]

That wasn't meant to be scumhunting.

That was meant to be information for the town after I died. I made that post with the expectation I was going to be lynched so I did everything I could to lay my suspicions out.

Even if I haven't done as much scum hunting as I should have in this game, at least I haven't completely neglected to do that unlike other people here {RichardGHP, CSL}. If you're town, you should be doing this right up until the end because your goal in this game is to catch scum and to do that, scum hunting is necessary.

[Mina]

Sorry, Faraday. I keep on losing track of when I last posted.

Aah, I had the beginning of a big post in response to Axelrod and MagnaofIllusion saved. I'll try to finish it by this evening, but there's another game I'm falling behind in. This summer has been a valuable learning experience in teaching me to only play one game at a time.

[Mikujin]

Picking up a prod.

I've been keeping an eye on things, just haven't had anything to add.

[RichardGHP]

Prod received.

After rereading a bit I'm comfortable with the SSBF wagon.

Vote: SSBF

[hasdgfas]

I'm currently ok with SSBF/Axelrod

vote: Axelrod

I haven't liked his play all game, and if we're getting a double lynch, then as long as SSBF is one, I think Axelrod should be second.

[Axelrod]

So you are making a snap decision – without looking deeper – that I’m making a scummy attack on you? This post, combined with your previously quoted post, shows you are clearly either a narcissist on Benmage’s scale or scumtastic. You are attacking everyone who dares to question your posting. The points I raised in that post are hardly irrelevant.

When I say "without looking deeper" I am talking about going back to make a thorough review of all your posting/votes this game (which, you may recall, was something I said needed doing). I don't have the time, but I could respond to that post, which totally was making irrelevant points. It was not a "snap" decision - which is an interesting choice of words.

That remark of mine was a throwaway. Stream of consciousness remark in a series of posts I was making. You know it. I was expressing an opinion, but it really didn't have a lot to do with anything going on in the game. Not entirely unlike my earlier off game rant at Drippereth. But this, of all things, is what you focus on?

If it was a throw-away comment with no game relevance why make it? I commented on it because I don’t see a Pro-Town motivation for posting it. It just serves to fluff up the volume of your posts or to excuse why you aren’t building cases based on interactions and past play.

Because sometime people just say stuff that's on their mind? I made a bunch of posts which could

hardly

be characterized as "fluff" with some pretty decent analysis if I do say so myself, but you cherry pick this post to criticize as me upping my "fluff" post count? That's what was suspicious.

How about that 50% chance you are scum?

How about it? Your post 2024 is a POE exercise. It is perhaps a starting point but there’s no analysis in there at all. You cobble together some assumptions based on game events and reads and come up with a list of people who statistically might be scum. But your post is only as good as the assumptions you use.

I could make a similar post based on my reads an you would end up in a group of people who are statistically have a 50% chance of being scum. I will not be in that group in my analysis because I know I am innocent and thus excluded from my suspect pool.

Your post should be the starting point from which you dig into the ISOs of said players and look for scum-tells and interactions. Yet you are treating it as if it is a strong analytical post. It's not.

This is what I was interested in starting a discussion about. Yes my post was a "starting point," but I think the assumptions behind it were solid. They were hardly "cobbled" together (another interesting choice of words which seems designed to minimize or downplay the point I was making). Let's talk about my "assumptions" - that was the entire point.

And, yes, I already said that for anyone who is not me then, depending on your reads, I am in that group of people who are 50% likely to be scum. What YOU should be doing is either agreeing that this is a good starting point, and then looking closer at said people yourself, or disagree that the post is valid. explain why not, and do something else.

What are you even talking about. I said - in the very post you have quoted - that maybe Unsight and Mac could be on the same team. But the way Mac cast his vote leads me away from drawing that conclusion. It didn't look like someone trying to "protect" his buddy. It didn't look like somone aggrresively trying to drive an alternate wagon. It was like "hey, lets do this and see what happens!"

Here is your statement that I highlighted –

As I said before, I don't really think that scum would have all that much incentive to go pushing a mis-lynch on Rifka close to deadline when someone else not on their team was already on the hook.

Again for the record – if Mac and Unsight are on the same team (ie Greyjoys) he has every reason to make a vote on an alternate wagon. Simply by making a 4th vote on the Rifka Mac creates more legitimacy to the wagon. He doesn’t have to blatant push anything.

And before this gets taken out of context I am not stating an opinion about Mac being a possible scum partner Unsight. I am simply stating how the thought process behind your Town assessment of the vote is weak.

You are not reading that post correctly or you are attempting to be deliberately misleading. In the sentence you highlight, I speculate that scum would not be particularly interesting in pushing one townie wagon over another. i.e. if no one on their team is in jeopardy, then they don't really care who gets lynched. Mac voted for Rifka (as opposed to jumping on the leading wagon which was Unsight.) I SAID that if Mac and Unsight were on the same team, this could be one explanation for his vote. But my read of that vote was not that of a scumbuddy trying to divert a lynch or protect a teammate.

Look at it the other way - when Mac made his vote, Unsight was still the clear vote leader. If Unsight were lynched, and flipped scum, this might have the effect of making some people more suspicious of Mac. People might have said - hey, you didn't vote for Unsight. So, as a scum-buddy, this vote would have been something of a risk. Maybe not a HUGE risk. But it was something that stood out, and scum don't like to stand out. Much easier to go with the flow and bus in that situation and try to maintain townie cred. Does that mean he couldn't still be scumbuddies with Unsight? NO. But that's just not how I am seeing it right now.

There is nothing wrong with my thougth processes. They are apparently better than yours atm.

In general 2018 looks less like an attempt at game analysis and more like an attempt to buddy up to a group of players perceived as Town. The only player whose vote you find fault with is from Diddin.

Locke has stated the by flavor Diddin is almost certainly not a Greyjoy. And it seems ludicrous to assume Diddin is a Lannister with Unsight based on the three Lannister flips. So what is his scum motivation to move to what turned out to be a mis-lynch? Especially given that Locke has stated he would move to Unsight to prevent a no-lynch. Diddin can’t be protecting a partner based on the flavor issue (and on this I defer to those with more knowledge). If he is scum he should have just waited out deadline and let Locke hammer Unsight.

Well, what's YOUR opinion about the other voters? You haven't said yet. Again, my post

could

be used as a starting point for a discussion about the lynch, were you interested in going there, but you don't seem to be.

My point about Diddin was not that he was "protecting" Unsight. That should have been clear. I was not saying they were Lannister scumbuddies together. It was that it looked like he could have been trying to gain townie points by louding proclaiming that he would switch at the deadline in order to get a lynch when there was, in fact, no need for him to switch. We were not going to No Lynch and he could have had the lynch he was voting for and presumably wanted more. Sure, if Unsight is not on his team, you could argue that the easy/smart thing for him to do was stick with Unsight and just let that mislynch happen. This equally applies if Diddin is Town, however. Why did Diddin switch votes? He said it was to ensure a lynch. Did he just miss the fact that Locke was standing by to lynch Unsight at deadline? If he missed that fact, maybe this explains his switch (but then, the point remains that as a scum who also missed that fact, he could have been switching to try and get townie cred.) So it's kind of a null.

So, Diddin, did you or did you not miss the fact that Locke was saying he was prepared to lynch Unsight at the time that you switched your vote to Rifka?

I'm not making this into a Federal case yet, but of all the Rifka votes my opinion was that that vote looked the worst. You disagree? Again, I don't think you have said. You just said that you think I'm trying to "buddy" all these people.

[diddin]

I missed that yes, but even though Locke said he would hammer, he was the one who urged me to hammer before deadline.

[Eddard Stark]

Vote Count 4.4 - The

"As High as Honour"

Votecount

SSBF (4) - Macavitar, Unsight, CSL, RichardGHP

CSL (2) - Mikujin, Thor665
Unsight (1) - MagnaOfIllusion

Axelrod (3) - Locke Lamora, diddin, hasdgfas

Not Voting (3) Mina,Axelrod, Super Smash Bros. Fan,

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch. If a majority is reached the person with the second most votes will also be simultaneously lynched.

Deadline is Midnight EST on the 5th of September, with a countdown available here

[Super Smash Bros. Fan]

Vote: CSL

Glad to see that CSL is finally being considered for a lynch. CSL should have been dead a long time ago and now is the best time to get rid of him. If it means that I am lynched as well, so be it. I think he's scum and he needs to die.

[CSL]

Once I flip town, you'll have bigger fish to fry. Like Unsight, who also NEEDS TO DIE!

[hasdgfas]

Vote: CSL

Glad to see that CSL is finally being considered for a lynch.

CSL should have been dead a long time ago

and now is the best time to get rid of him. If it means that I am lynched as well, so be it. I think he's scum and he needs to die.

/facepalm

[CSL]

SSBF, if you killed me last night, they'd be going for vezok next, with you at the helm. That is why you are dying TODAY, along with whomever else is being lynched. If majority hit now, Axelrod would go down with you.

[hasdgfas]

SSBF, if you killed me last night, they'd be going for vezok next, with you at the helm. That is why you are dying TODAY, along with whomever else is being lynched. If majority hit now, Axelrod would go down with you.

what exactly are you saying here? I'm not quite getting the point of this post.

[CSL]

Meaning that if SSBF is not SK, which is unlikely, and he killed me last night, you all would've most likely lynch vezok and Unsight.

But now, we have a likely SK and a townie possibly being lynched. (by townie, I mean me)

Well, at least the likely SK is going down...

[Eddard Stark]

Unsight and Macavitar have been prodded.

[Thor665]

I'd love to see someone grow a set and break our CSL and Axel ties. I think everyone agrees on the primary lynch, but we should probably be puzzling out the secondary one.

Personally I think I'd rather rope up Unsight then Axel, but CSL takes preference to both for me.

[Macavitar]

Yup, prodded. I'm wondering if we do need to start doing FoSes and unofficial FoS counts to figure out today's lynches. Other content coming later today.