Mini 1005: Mafiaphobes! (Game over)


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Post Post #850 (ISO) » Mon Aug 23, 2010 8:42 am

Post by Oso »

EBWOF:Forgot to add. Vote coming on either xvart or vezo. Need to check on a thing or two from earlier in the game.
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Post Post #851 (ISO) » Mon Aug 23, 2010 9:46 am

Post by Oso »

VOTE: xvart

Some of that is what I've already put forward. I did a quick ISO of xvart and I pretty much confirmed my opinion of him. He's been playing strong town and even the things that I thought were were off became explainable as more information came into the game. Namely claims and actions. His behavior lines up with my conception of town all down the line. I saw this though:
xvart wrote:Shit. You're right. Scratch that.
But why would the scum kill diddin? He was a more than likely lynch today.


xvart.
Right after the post were I pointed out diddin was directed. I missed the second part. I read the
"Shit. You're right. Scratch that...."
and then went on to SSBF's post.

Poirot's Post - 846 goes into some of what I am going to say as well.

The bold part of xvart's quote is disingenuous. He already knows the answer to that question. He's hoping that the thread will draw the wrong conclusion.

No reason for scum to kill diddin if I'm scum. Makes more sense to keep him alive. I just sit back and say "Yes, I did not get a result last night." when it's confirmed that diddin did, in fact, jail me as directed. It confirms diddin as town but also goes a long way to confirming me as well if I'm scum. And I think it would have been that way. diddin was under the gun, not me. The players would have almost demanded he give out with his results first to see if I was in fact the target before asking me to confirm that I was blocked.

The fact of the matter is, even with it catching xvart(scum) claim out, diddin had to die. He was about to be confirmed by another confirmed townie. Yes, I referred to myself as town and and confirmed. I'm going to use the credibilty (now dead)KG gave me. He died and flipped cop while having said, in the thread the day before he was NKed, he thought I was town. Here:Post-678. So unless you want to argue sanity or argue that he didn't want to come out and give a confirmed 'guilty' result in order to get another day, then I am confirmed town even if it is a bit ambiguous by KG never having come right out and said I was 'Innocent'. I may be wrong in some of my reasoning but I'm not scum being deliberately wrong.

Put yourself into scum's shoes for a minute. Scum had to get rid of diddin even at the cost of one of their own. He(diddin) was the only role that can protect other confirmed roles. They have to get rid of him or take the chance he outguesses them and invalidates an NK through blocking or protecting while confirming a townie or outing a scum while doing so. He is(was) the biggest danger in the game to them once confirmed. I'm guessing that xvart hoped (wrongly) that his claim would get diddin lynched yesterday based on a counter-claimed protective role and getting into a comparison of play (diddin vs xvart) up to that point in the game. A comparison that xvart would have won had it took place, no question. Of course, he(xvart) would be lynched today in retaliation but an important thing would have happened, diddin wouldn't have been able to protect anyone last night leaving the way open to get the Tracker(me) or the Watcher (if you believe vezo is town).
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Post Post #852 (ISO) » Mon Aug 23, 2010 10:42 am

Post by xvart »

Humble Poirot, 846 wrote:I was asking about the fact that you were waiting on Vezok to give his information out TODAY. If vezok had to watch you, according to the plan, did you really think he would say anything but "no one visited xvart"?

The 2nd paragraph makes practically no sense. It's really bizarre (and scummy) coming from you.
I can't remember now why I wanted him to claim first, but I suppose it was because I hadn't connected everything together (Vezok vs. Oso) and even though I was starting to be suspicious of Oso (unfounded as it turns out) I said Vezok because he was my most likely suspect starting today. I also thought that Vezok would be the most likely to make a mistake in claiming out of everyone who has claimed a role, so I wanted him to go first.
Humble Poirot, 846 wrote:Diddin was not a likely lynch because he would be confirmed by Oso. He was town (scum knew that) so killing him was a great choice. If he lived, you'd be facing the same predicament of being the non-confirmed claimed protective role.
You're right. I was thinking from a scum perspective with my town mindset and didn't consider the outside knowledge that scum would have.
Humble Poirot, 846 wrote:The fact that you *seemingly* forgot you agreed with my plan is disturbing.
The other thing I can't quite wrap my head around is the N1 actions by Sotty and diddin. They both claimed to have blocked each other, and I don't have any reason to think they didn't;
You have no reason to dis-believe confirmed scum?
No, because the only reason I can see Sotty committing the kill and choosing not to Roleblock is if both of his partners were under suspicion and thought they were likely to be tracked. I don't see scum throwing away a roleblock, regardless of if they had a solid read on anyone being a power role.
Humble Poirot, 846 wrote:diddin is town so he was telling the truth.
diddin: n1 sotty, n2 Oso (Oso could track), n3 Oso (Oso couldn't track)
Sotty: n1 diddin (unknown), n2 diddin (likely due to Oso being able to track sotty)
Looking back on it I don't think we should have directed diddin, but I didn't consider that at the time because, like I said, I didn't believe diddin was going to flip town JK. Which is also why I forgot about that part of your plan, because I never really thought that was going to matter.



Oso, 851 wrote:VOTE: xvart

Some of that is what I've already put forward. I did a quick ISO of xvart and I pretty much confirmed my opinion of him. He's been playing strong town and even the things that I thought were were off became explainable as more information came into the game. Namely claims and actions. His behavior lines up with my conception of town all down the line. I saw this though:
xvart wrote:Shit. You're right. Scratch that.
But why would the scum kill diddin? He was a more than likely lynch today.


xvart.
Right after the post were I pointed out diddin was directed. I missed the second part. I read the
"Shit. You're right. Scratch that...."
and then went on to SSBF's post.
Not that this will mean anything, but I wish I had the balls as scum to play the way I've played this game. My response was genuine, and I wanted to quickly respond to you saying you were right. Like I said, I've been pretty demoralized after diddin's flip which would explain my lack of completely thinking through my accusation of you.
Oso, 851 wrote:I'm going to use the credibilty (now dead)KG gave me. He died and flipped cop while having said, in the thread the day before he was NKed, he thought I was town. Here:Post-678. So unless you want to argue sanity or argue that he didn't want to come out and give a confirmed 'guilty' result in order to get another day, then I am confirmed town even if it is a bit ambiguous by KG never having come right out and said I was 'Innocent'. I may be wrong in some of my reasoning but I'm not scum being deliberately wrong.
Which is why I mentioned in my balance thinking that an insane cop might be more likely now that I know diddin was town JK. Of course, I can't confirm my doctor claim, so my opinion won't hold much weight, but it is more likely in my eyes that KageLord was insane.
Oso, 851 wrote:I'm guessing that xvart hoped (wrongly) that his claim would get diddin lynched yesterday based on a counter-claimed protective role and getting into a comparison of play (diddin vs xvart) up to that point in the game. A comparison that xvart would have won had it took place, no question. Of course, he(xvart) would be lynched today in retaliation but an important thing would have happened, diddin wouldn't have been able to protect anyone last night leaving the way open to get the Tracker(me) or the Watcher (if you believe vezo is town).
You have to think if I would put myself on the chopping block for the same reason: if I rallied the troops and got diddin lynched, he flipped town JK, as scum I would then be outted and lynched immediately. It would be more practical, if as scum my only desire was to kill the protective role, to wait and NK him; if I got watched or tracked, the same result would occur: my lynch the next day, so it would be a better move to wait until night to kill him instead of championing his lynch for two days (and failing).




Another thought, and I haven't looked at the numbers to see where this puts in terms of MYLO/LYLO in consecutive days, but it might be worth asking Charter to claim if he is a lyncher, claim his target, then that would help us narrow down the pool because he and his target would then be confirmed as non scum. If we lynch scum tonight, our trade off with Charter, if the numbers allow it, would be lynching his target, then lynching the final scum.

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Post Post #853 (ISO) » Mon Aug 23, 2010 11:28 am

Post by q21 »

Humble Poirot wrote:
@q21: Ok. Let's assume xvart flips scum. Any ideas for a third partner? Now let's assume he is town. Same thing.
xvart flips scum the other scum is either vezok or SSBF
xvart flips town the scums are you and vezok/SSBF
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Post Post #854 (ISO) » Mon Aug 23, 2010 11:29 am

Post by charter »

I have no problem claiming if it's just me and one other person that haven't claimed. Where did this lyncher business come from? Who started that and around where?

I'm going to hold off from claiming until I've read the whole thread, however. Should be tonight. Doesn't matter to me who goes first.
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Post Post #855 (ISO) » Mon Aug 23, 2010 11:39 am

Post by q21 »

charter, the lyncher talk comes from the slightly unhinged aggression your slot has shown toward HP during the course of the game.
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Post Post #856 (ISO) » Mon Aug 23, 2010 12:15 pm

Post by Oso »

xvart wrote:..
Another thought, and I haven't looked at the numbers to see where this puts in terms of MYLO/LYLO in consecutive days, but it might be worth asking Charter to claim if he is a lyncher, claim his target, then that would help us narrow down the pool because he and his target would then be confirmed as non scum. If we lynch scum tonight, our trade off with Charter, if the numbers allow it, would be lynching his target, then lynching the final scum.

xvart.
We are 7 Now. If you presuppose 3 scum (1 now dead) then we are at 5:2. Not MyLo or LyLo.

Mislynch/NK puts us in LyLo tomorrow though 3:2.

Tagging scum today puts us at 4:1 tomorrow, putting off LyLo one more day.

No lynching is only an option today (pretty much allowing a no lynch tomorrow as well).

My thoughts: Lynch today. A mislynch today drops us into LyLo tomorrow with 2 scum remaining. A No-lynch today pretty much suggests a No-Lynch tomorrow (it will be 4:2 - MyLo) so you end up the following day in the same situation:LyLo 3:2. Just takes longer to get there is all. Unless you think someone will have have an insight due to two days of talking/No-Lynching then the play today, in my opinion, is to lynch
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Post Post #857 (ISO) » Mon Aug 23, 2010 1:05 pm

Post by charter »

Alright, about to pick back up. I need to find out who brought up lyncher.

No lynching is absolutely not, under any circumstances, an option, whatsoever.
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Post Post #858 (ISO) » Mon Aug 23, 2010 1:09 pm

Post by xvart »

First, please someone unvote me. If both of you are town then scum could come in and semi-quick lynch me under the pretext of me being scum because diddin flipped JK. If you want to revote me later, fine; but just ease off right now.
q21, 853 wrote:
Humble Poirot wrote:
@q21: Ok. Let's assume xvart flips scum. Any ideas for a third partner? Now let's assume he is town. Same thing.
xvart flips scum the other scum is either vezok or SSBF
xvart flips town the scums are you and vezok/SSBF
Why would Humble be scum if I flip town? If I was an outside observer and I flipped town doctor, I think that would validate Humble as town. And what are your justifications behind SSBF or Vezok being the other scum in both scenarios?



charter, 854 wrote:Where did this lyncher business come from? Who started that and around where?

I'm going to hold off from claiming until I've read the whole thread, however. Should be tonight. Doesn't matter to me who goes first.
I initially suggested it after your predecessors predecessor (jay) said:
jayfl383, 237 wrote:
Unvote: Vote: Humble Poirot



Humble is 100% scum, confirmed..B4 you all ask me how and why I AM 10000% about this..I will not roleclaim.....also after he is lynched and flips scum, please can I get protected tonight for obvious reasons, thanks...1 scum down!
He basically said he had a confirmed scum read, 10000% sure, on Humble, on day one. Then dropped out of sight after it was suggested he was a lyncher. Then your predecessor tried to play it off while still trying to build a case on Humble, saying he developed his read based on what he thought jay was thinking with a huge long post of observations, when jay had never said anything at all. So unless jay was a day cop (which is pretty obvious he wasn't after KL flipped) or a real idiot, the only logical conclusion is he was a lyncher trying to pull a fast one.

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Post Post #859 (ISO) » Mon Aug 23, 2010 2:18 pm

Post by xvart »

I've isolated all the interactions SSBF had with confirmed scum Sotty, plus one where Humble asked him why he wasn't voting Sotty.
Super Smash Bros. Fan, 286 wrote:
Sotty7 wrote:SSBF the deadline is seemingly around the corner why has it taken you so long to back off Tasky when you really stopped pushing his case awhile ago? What are you doing to help us reach a lynch?
For your first question, it's due to my play style. I tend to keep my vote on a person longer then most people, especially when it gets near deadline. This is because I don't like being inconsistent with my game play.
Super Smash Bros. Fan, 336 wrote:
Sotty7 wrote:@ SSBF: What do you think about quadz's vote on you? Why didn't you initially comment on it?
For someone who stated numerous times that I was scummy, he hasn't really brought much to the table as explained below.

As for why I didn't intially comment on it, I was trying to come up with a decent response to it, but could not think of one. At least I finally got it done.
Super Smash Bros. Fan, 387 wrote:
Sotty7 wrote:How likely do you think it is quadz will flip scum?
Based off evidence supporting that he's scum, I'd say it's pretty unlikely. I'm 70% sure that he'll flip scum. While with vezokpiraka, I'm 85% sure, since he has more evidence supporting his scumminess.
Super Smash Bros. Fan, 537 wrote:
Sotty7 wrote:What is scummy about Tazaro independent of vezo?
Obvious I hated Tazaro's hammer as he just came by and said "Oh, here's the hammer even thought I know the person is probably going to flip town.". Even if it's close to the deadline, a person who genuinely thought he was scummy should have hammered, not a person who has no opinion on anyone's alignment.

His justification for his hammer on quadz08 is very weak. He tries to use static to determind that it will most likely be a mislynch, which is a given since after all, Mafia is a game of the uninformed majority trying to get rid of the informed majority. However, when it comes to scum hunting, static and evidence supporting scummy behavior do not mix with each other. Him treating it as an informational lynch isn't a much better reason either as every lynch we should attempt to hit scum and we cannot afford to lynch someone purely for information.

He suggested that since mislynches usually happen Day 1, we should think that we got a mislynch coming. I really dislike this mentality. Town should never treat Day 1 as a probable mislynch Day, they should put forth all efforts toward finding scums on that day just like in later days, less information or not.

Tazaro's play is scummy independent of vezokpiraka's alignment. He'll look a lot worse if vezokpiraka flips scum.
Super Smash Bros. Fan, 608 wrote:
Sotty7 wrote:This is all well and good if Tazaro was in the game since the start. He wasn't. He came in and hammered right near the deadline, no matter how you try and spin this it isn't scummy. There were no other viable wagons, little to no time to push anyone else up what did you expect him to do? I have also explained why the hammer isn't scummy during my discussion with Oso, what do you think of that?
If I had gotten to this thread early enough, I would have hammer quadz08. Not because for an informational lynch, but because I truly thought he was scummy. Scummy people are likely to flip scum. I would have felt a lot better if someone who actually suspected him hammer instead of just someone who replaced in.

And to answer your question, if you don't think the hammer is scummy, that is your own opinion, disagreeing would not put you on my scum list. I personally think it is scummy and I want to make my opinion known.
Sotty7 wrote:I think you are pushing a very weak case here. His fluff posting his scummy, his not reading the game is scummy and these are things you don't even mention. The hammer is probably the one thing that isn't scummy about his play so far.
The hammer isn't the only reason why I suspected Tazaro. I didn't like how he tried to justify it with static, I didn't like how he said it was an informational lynch to him while others except vezokpiraka thought quadz08 was scummy. I also didn't like how he wanted us to think that Day 1 is probably going to be a mislynch, which is a really bad mentality to have. It is more then just the hammer. Also, other things I don't like about Tazaro has already been said by other people. On top of that, I do plan on building my case on him, so what you see is not all you're going to see from me attacking Tazaro.
And finally, when asked why he was voting Vezok and not the likely scum RB-sotty by Humble:
Super Smash Bros. Fan, 777 wrote:Just want to remind people that Sotty7 is at L-1.
Humble Poirot wrote:Why vote the possible scum watcher and not the most likely scum RB? We can tie the hands of the watcher but we can't do the same with the RB.
For two reasons:

1. I originally had a town read on Sotty7 while always had a scum read of some sort on vezokpiraka. Which one do you think I'm going to vote now that they're both suspicious? It makes sense to go with someone you always suspected, especially if they remain consistency scummy. While Oso gave out some damning evidence regarding Sotty7-scum, vezokpiraka was always scummy and him watching you when he should have been watching Oso/KageLord indicates that he's more likely to be mafia.

2. I do not want to jump on a bandwagon which goes by other people reasons and not mine as well. Yes I am suspicious of Sotty7, but my reasons for suspecting her has already been said by Oso. Unless she gets so scummy that she's obvious scum, I will not vote her until I find some evidence of my own supporting her being scum.
There is relatively nothing between SSBF and Sotty from SSBF's posts. Nothing at all other than answering some clarification questions posed by Sotty. The last quote about his view of Sotty and Vezok is especially interesting, and although his logic might be argued as legitimate (voting someone you've always considered scum vs voting someone who has just now become suspicious) except for the fact that the evidence on Sotty was pretty overwhelming, and I don't really think his validation that both are scummy works since the evidence on Sotty was so strong.




Oso (claimed tracker, confirmed neighbor)
Humble Poirot (claimed VT confirmed neighbor, possible lynchee)
q21 (claimed VT)
Charter (unclaimed, possible lyncher)
xvart (claimed doctor)

vezokpiraka (confirmed watcher, unconfirmed alignment)
Super Smash Bros. Fan (unclaimed)
quadz08, Vanilla Townie
Tazaro Tasky, Vanilla Townie
KageLord, Town Cop

Sotty7, Mafia Roleblocker

diddin, Town Jailkeeper Neighbour





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Post Post #860 (ISO) » Mon Aug 23, 2010 2:32 pm

Post by charter »

Ok, by 759, Oso is 100% town.

Also, what I am wondering (and this is quite vexing) is if Sotty was blocked night one, why was the kill stopped? I'm pretty sure this means she was sent to make the kill, BUT she was also a roleblocker. My question, is why would they send the roleblocker to make a kill, when it's quite likely (based off past experience) that at least one member of the mafia doesn't have an active role. Just off the top of my head, my thinking is that they didn't think Sotty would be tracked, and they were worried that the other members would be tracked. The other explanation is she had the worst power role (though two better roles than roleblocker... tough to imagine).

764 by SSBF looks really bad. Sotty just got caught independently by two power roles, and he's ignoring that and voting vezok.

However, whoever said that Vezo's targeting of Poirot is suspect is totally correct. There is a claimed cop, and he watches some unknown claim? Yeah right.

Lol, Xvart claiming protecting Humble two nights in a row. In addition, Xvart's 791 makes less than zero sense. He's claiming that Sotty and Dddin are both scum, and both blocked each other, and then both fudged up their claims. That's a believable thing to be going through a townie's head. :roll:

Wait, now I see Humble was thinking this as well? Hmmm, I'll have to go recheck, I might be biased since I knew Dddin was town when I was reading it.

What????????????????? Vezo targeted Xvart? Are you serious?

Alright, caught all the way up. Let me reread what I wrote, and select parts of the game, and I'll consolidate my thoughts and nail the scumbags.

As for my claim, I'm just a vanilla townie. The reason I was so interested in hearing who brought it up, is it's an extremely uncommon thing for town to think of in a game. Also, just to throw you all for a curve, here's a game where the lynchee was scum. http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=14295
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Post Post #861 (ISO) » Mon Aug 23, 2010 2:32 pm

Post by charter »

Vezo, why on earth did you target Xvart last night?
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Post Post #862 (ISO) » Mon Aug 23, 2010 2:38 pm

Post by xvart »

charter wrote:Vezo, why on earth did you target Xvart last night?
Because we told him to.

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Post Post #863 (ISO) » Mon Aug 23, 2010 5:45 pm

Post by Humble Poirot »

@Oso: from 849 I don't understand how it Vezok's case is weakened and xvart's strenghtened. Vezok has never been blocked ro killed despite
BEING THE ONLY ONE WHO SOFTCLAIMED DAY 1
and claimed day 2. Watcher is a powerful role and if you add Watcher + Jailkeeper that's really, really powerful. Doc + JK at least can't protect each other because JK would block doc.

@Oso: Killing diddin makes sense for anyone as scum. He would be confirmed by you. If you were scum it would be a great move. It wouldn't confirm you at all. Anyway, I don't think you're scum, at all, but it's a piece of logic I don't agree with.
As for sanity, yes, I don't think that Kage was sane given there's at least one watcher or tracker or doc + JK + Cop.

xvart wrote:No, because the only reason I can see Sotty committing the kill and choosing not to Roleblock is if both of his partners were under suspicion and thought they were likely to be tracked.
Who said it has to be one or the other? Many mods allow kill + special ability from the same person.

The question is still hard... Would xvart claim doc to get diddin the Jailkeeper out of the game?
xvart wrote:but it might be worth asking Charter to claim if he is a lyncher, claim his target, then that would help us narrow down the pool because he and his target would then be confirmed as non scum. If we lynch scum tonight, our trade off with Charter, if the numbers allow it, would be lynching his target, then lynching the final scum.
That's not how it works. Lyncher won't claim he is such thing. I hope it were that easy. See my explanation at the end of how lyncher benefits from a mislynch today.

Also, who's scum, xvart? You've only talked about yourself thus far.

q21 wrote:
Humble Poirot wrote:
@q21: Ok. Let's assume xvart flips scum. Any ideas for a third partner? Now let's assume he is town. Same thing.
xvart flips scum the other scum is either vezok or SSBF
xvart flips town the scums are you and vezok/SSBF
Each day scummier, my friend. You still want to give no info?

Why? Give REASONS for your statements. Why did Vezok claim xvart actioned on me if he was his partner? Why is SSBF scum?
If you think SSBF is scum in almost every situation, why not vote him and manipulate watcher, doc and trackers actions?
How am I scum if xvart flips town? How am I scum with SSBf or vezok(And sotty)?

charter wrote:I have no problem claiming if it's just me and one other person that haven't claimed. Where did this lyncher business come from? Who started that and around where?
You don't look like you pay attention.

It started with Jay but I pretty much ignored it. But then, Aran came out totally tunneling on me ignoring everything else. Now, you came saying that friend (me) was scum with just 2 pages read and keep throwing knives my direction.

I'm not usually a fan of lyncher speculation (and I've ignored it in earlier games) but this seems just too much.
charter wrote:I'm going to hold off from claiming until I've read the whole thread, however. Should be tonight. Doesn't matter to me who goes first.
This is absurd. Why would you need time to claim unless you wanted to know if fakeclaiming could be helpful?
charter wrote:Alright, about to pick back up. I need to find out who brought up lyncher.

No lynching is absolutely not, under any circumstances, an option, whatsoever.
Says the suspected lyncher. :roll:
Charter wrote:However, whoever said that Vezo's targeting of Poirot is suspect is totally correct. There is a claimed cop, and he watches some unknown claim? Yeah right.
Kagelord NEVER claimed cop.
charter wrote:Wait, now I see Humble was thinking this as well? Hmmm, I'll have to go recheck, I might be biased since I knew Dddin was town when I was reading it.
Once Oso claimed and we knew that diddin sotty claimed to block each other night 1. It made diddin look very town because no sotty hadn't come after him. No one had claimed doc so that meant no other PR could've stopped that kill. Based on xvart's continued attack on diddin, I suspected that xvart could be a doc but then he unvoted. He finally claimed and explained this situation. Which made sense.

That made me believe Diddin had fakeclaimed JK (knowing who Sotty Rb-ed) to save himself and, on doing so, had established a connection that had destroyed the scumteam (Sotty complained the setup was crippling)

Charter. You're not paying attention. At all. Stop skimming and read. Based on VEzok + diddin + sotty scumteam and to protect xvart+Oso I devised a plan which most people agreed on.
Charter wrote:As for my claim, I'm just a vanilla townie. The reason I was so interested in hearing who brought it up, is it's an extremely uncommon thing for town to think of in a game. Also, just to throw you all for a curve, here's a game where the lynchee was scum.
Now that you've heard who brought it up... what gives? Also,
why the hell would you bring a game where lynchee is scum if you're not the lyncher (trying to convince the other players to vote his target)?


You haven't said who do you think is scum and why. You have ignored my posts so far. Bring it on, but I advice you to read my response to Aranneas before you come up with a bunch of lies.

xvart wrote:First, please someone unvote me. If both of you are town then scum could come in and semi-quick lynch me under the pretext of me being scum because diddin flipped JK. If you want to revote me later, fine; but just ease off right now.
I Agree with XVART


I don't expect this from scummy q21 but I do from Oso.



At this point. There's much evidence pointing towards Vezok scum and I'm struggling to understand if xvart can be scum with him or not at all. Then there's xvart's doc against jailkeeper and his last post which sounds really off. My only problem consists on Charter who, with every post, comes stronger as a probable lyncher.

I mean, why on earth would someone say that lynchee can be scum? Instead of, there's no lyncher? Why? Because he IS, in fact, a lyncher and he wants to be able to lynch me either way.

Assuming 2 remaining scum we have the following problem:
If we mislynch today scum doesn't kill charter and tomorrow (LYLO) they team up and lynch me for the win.

So, I think that, unless we're totally certain of who to lynch, which seems difficult. We lynch Charter and see what happens tomorrow.

As a fail safe we can use a similar protection system as we did yesterday:
Vezok watches xvart.
xvart protects Oso.
Oso tracks whoever he wants.

That only leaves vezok exposed and, after his play this game, his death would be a blessing.

Tl,Dr:

*Oso is town in my book.
*Vezok or xvart are strong lynch candidates but it's harder than it looks.
* Vezok: scummy all game + never blocked by scum (nor shot?) + controversial watches (not so much to me) + watcher/JK?
* Xvart lately logic is weird + 2 town protective roles?
* q21 is lurking hard not explaining anything. (remember when sotty voted q21 out of the blue for lurking? Does this mean anything?)
* Charter is just saying just throwing words out there without explanations either and intent on proving lyncher is impossible (but slowly coming my way?). He hasn't made clear who he would vote and why because his supposedly vary according to the page he was in.
* If there's lyncher + 2 scum (alive) and we mislynch, we're screwed.
*q21 needs to give reasons for what he says.
*So does Charter and he, vezok, xvart and SSBF need to explain who would they lynch.
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Post Post #864 (ISO) » Mon Aug 23, 2010 6:37 pm

Post by xvart »

charter, 860 wrote:As for my claim, I'm just a vanilla townie. The reason I was so interested in hearing who brought it up, is it's an extremely uncommon thing for town to think of in a game. Also, just to throw you all for a curve, here's a game where the lynchee was scum. http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=14295
We don't blame you. You replaced into a terrible situation that was only compounded by your predecessors' play.
charter, 861 wrote:Vezo, why on earth did you target Xvart last night?
To further add to my previous comment about him being told to watch me; it was a way to keep the doctor safe from the night kill. Because if I died, Vezok would have to claim who targeted me (regardless of his alignment).
charter, 860 wrote:However, whoever said that Vezo's targeting of Poirot is suspect is totally correct. There is a claimed cop, and he watches some unknown claim? Yeah right.
My theory at the time, and I still think it might be correct, is scum watcher Vezok was trying to catch the doctor who protected Humble the first night and prevented their kill:
xvart wrote:Preliminary thoughts make me think that vezok didn't target humble on night one because humble was supposed to die (but was saved due to my protection). It is also possible that he targeted Humble night two since scumvezok would know that Humble was saved and might be a likely save again (or even an investigation, which also occurred).
charter, 860 wrote:Lol, Xvart claiming protecting Humble two nights in a row. In addition, Xvart's 791 makes less than zero sense. He's claiming that Sotty and Dddin are both scum, and both blocked each other, and then both fudged up their claims. That's a believable thing to be going through a townie's head. :roll:
What is wrong with protecting Humble two nights in a row? I was under the impression that I saved him night one since he was (in my opinion night one) the most town person in the game and there was no death night one. Why wouldn't I save him again?



Humble Poirot, 863 wrote:@Oso: Killing diddin makes sense for anyone as scum. He would be confirmed by you. If you were scum it would be a great move. It wouldn't confirm you at all. Anyway, I don't think you're scum, at all, but it's a piece of logic I don't agree with.
As for sanity, yes, I don't think that Kage was sane given there's at least one watcher or tracker or doc + JK + Cop.
But then wouldn't KageLord's softclaim about Oso mean he was scum? This is where I am getting hung up.
Humble Poirot, 863 wrote:
xvart wrote:No, because the only reason I can see Sotty committing the kill and choosing not to Roleblock is if both of his partners were under suspicion and thought they were likely to be tracked.
Who said it has to be one or the other? Many mods allow kill + special ability from the same person.
I don't think I've ever been on a scum team where one person could commit two actions, at least when there are enough people to do both. I think in newbie games the rules dictate that if the scum goon is killed then the roleblocker could do both block and kill. But I suppose you're right in terms of not knowing for sure in this game.
Humble Poirot, 863 wrote:Also, who's scum, xvart? You've only talked about yourself thus far.
I'm pretty sure Vezok is scum and I'm thinking SSBF might be scum based on his interactions with Sotty. Although q21 isn't looking so good right now either.

I think the safest play for us today is to lynch Vezok, but keeping him alive helps us control the night actions.

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Post Post #865 (ISO) » Mon Aug 23, 2010 11:48 pm

Post by vezokpiraka »

Note for self : Never play in games hosted by totallynotmafia.

If we mislynch today we are pretty screwed.
Charter is confirmed lyncher cause there is no way three replacements ofund the same spot scummy.
Scum would be stupid to kill or roleblock me just based on my play.
I was town PR in a game and the scum left me alive hoping to force a lynch on me in LyLo.
I was confirmed town in another game and got to endgame. Confirmed town from day 1
More later.
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Post Post #866 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 12:42 am

Post by q21 »

q21 wrote:
Humble Poirot wrote:
@q21: Ok. Let's assume xvart flips scum. Any ideas for a third partner? Now let's assume he is town. Same thing.
xvart flips scum the other scum is either vezok or SSBF
xvart flips town the scums are you and vezok/SSBF
xvart wrote: Why would Humble be scum if I flip town? If I was an outside observer and I flipped town doctor, I think that would validate Humble as town. And what are your justifications behind SSBF or Vezok being the other scum in both scenarios?
If you flip town then Humble's night action plan begins to look like the perfect plan to get both diddin (JK) and you (doctor) out of the game in the space of one night and one day. I gave reasons why I though SSBF was scum yesterday, his hesitancy around lynching Sotty doesn't help his case. Vezok is simply scummy and given that I feel Oso's is town vezok as the other half of a watcher/tracker pair is more likely to be scum.
Humble Poirot wrote: Each day scummier, my friend. You still want to give no info?

Why? Give REASONS for your statements. Why did Vezok claim xvart actioned on me if he was his partner? Why is SSBF scum?
If you think SSBF is scum in almost every situation, why not vote him and manipulate watcher, doc and trackers actions?
How am I scum if xvart flips town? How am I scum with SSBf or vezok(And sotty)?
Each day less interested in what you think HP. And I don't have any actual information to give.
Why are you scum if xvart flips town? See above. Why is SSBF scum? See most of my posts yesterday. How much support would there be for lynching SSBF? Not enough when there is another lynch (xvart) I like just as much, if not more, that actually has a chance of going through.
"I can't not give mad props to the murderbot 9000 that was q21." - Spyrex, after Scummies Invitational 2010.

You know those times when you wish you could think of something really funny or interesting to say, but just can't?... Yep, this is one of those times.
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Post Post #867 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 6:10 am

Post by vezokpiraka »

LATER.

I support a lynch on q21.
He lurked most of the game. Voted the wagon with people on.
I would also support a lynch on Charter.

MOD
I want a votecount.
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Post Post #868 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 12:10 pm

Post by charter »

Christ Humble. Every one of your posts is demanding I be fully up to date with the game. Maybe if you keep pestering me I'll appease you (though I won't). If your posts weren't so damn massive, it'd have taken half the time and I'd be done by now. Now take a chill pill and sit down.

Anyway, I'm NOT a lyncher, lynching me would be idiotic, and I'm about to finish up and post my thoughts. Even if you think I'm a lyncher despite what I say (even though there's no reason to lie about it) lynching me is still idiotic, since I'm not scum.
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Post Post #869 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 2:13 pm

Post by xvart »

q21, 866 wrote:If you flip town then Humble's night action plan begins to look like the perfect plan to get both diddin (JK) and you (doctor) out of the game in the space of one night and one day.
Can you explain this plot to me? I'm not following you. When was this plot hatched and when would it be executed?
q21, 866 wrote:Each day less interested in what you think HP. And I don't have any actual information to give.
Dude, at this point in the game, if you are town, you should have absolutely no reason to say something like this. It further divides the town and inserts a distraction and a rift. It doesn't help, so if you feel this way; keep it to yourself.
vezokpiraka, 867 wrote:I would also support a lynch on Charter.
So you think charter is scummy? Explain to me the scum motivation of his post 237 when he outright claims Humble as confirmed scum on day one.
vezokpiraka, 865 wrote:Note for self : Never play in games hosted by totallynotmafia.
Actually, despite being completely off in my reads I've enjoyed this game tremendously. The flavor has been hilarious and great for a normal game, and for the most part have enjoyed the playerlist; but this can be discussed post game.

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Post Post #870 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 2:42 pm

Post by Humble Poirot »

Charter: I am in the process of taking a chill pill seeing I'm not getting much out of the people I'd like to.

I'll just read and reread whenever I have the time and think what scenario is more plausible.

Later.
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Post Post #871 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 2:55 pm

Post by charter »

WARNING! WALL-O-TEXT!


Alright, first off, let me make sure I have the claims straight. (I also just noticed I've been butchering Diddin's name, sorry)

Xvart - doc - protected HP night 1, 2; Vezo night 3
Oso - tracker - night one tracked HP, didn't go anywhere; night two tracked Sotty to Dddin; night three tracked Dddin, didn't go anywhere.
Vezo - watcher - night one watched Oso, saw Kage; night two watches HP, saw Kage and Xvart; night three watches Xvart doesn't see anyone.
Kage - cop - night one investigated Oso, innocent; night two unknown
Diddin - jailkeeper - night one jailed Sotty; night two jailed Oso; night three unknown
HP - townie
q21 - townie
Charter - townie
SSBF - ??? (can't remember or find a claim)

I'm assuming that SSBF claimed vanilla, I just can't find it. If I'm mistaken, let me know.

I think Oso is town. I'm not seeing the power bus of Sotty and Kagelord definitely didn't get a guilty on him (I have to assume he got an innocent, though no idea why he wouldn't make that more obvious).

Something else that I think is likely, is that Sotty DID NOT send the kill night one. I think that's highly improbable for the roleblocker to send a kill, especially since no potential scumbags were under heavy scrutiny at the end of day one (and thus likely to draw a tracking investigation), except for Vezo, but I'm pretty certain he didn't make the kill, either, since he watched Oso.

What I think this means, is that Xvart is TOWN. There are a few things pointing towards this. The biggest is the no kill, which unless Sotty was sent to make the kill (again, highly unlikely), he's the only explanation. Another big thing going for him is his protection of HP, who (from what I gather, and someone correct me if I'm wrong) had virtually no suspicion on him and was considered by many to be town. I think that the combination of Xvart's choice to protect him coupled with his likelihood of being NK'ed is what actually happened night one. This also makes HP town (plus, HP was tracked night one, and didn't make the kill, and it's likely that he would have been the one to send it in since he had no suspicion). This would mean that the three neighbors are all town.

Excluding myself, this leaves us with Vezo, q21, SSBF.

Putting the claim jigsaw puzzle together, Vezo's targets are plausible. In addition, if you look at when Vezo claimed, Sotty immediately wants to see who targeted Oso at night, and then you see who died that night? The same person, Kagelord. It doesn't look to me like Sotty knew who Vezo targeted.

Alright, all this aside, based solely on logic and a slight bit of applied thought, I think q21 and SSBF have a good chance of being scum. Now, on to look at their actual actions.

Right off the top of my head, from what I remember about the game, q21 had a very good chance of being scum. Despite my catchup posts, here's what I think is going on (those are mostly notes to myself, here comes your explanations HP...). Sotty makes very little mention on him until she votes him in 621. There's virtually no follow up on this, and she mentions him as one of her suspects the next day, but that's it. Her vote was entirely useless and it was safe to park a vote on her scumbuddy, since he was in zero danger of a wagon taking off with how everyone was going after Tazaro and Diddin.

Q21, I believe, was on every single lynch. I think a lot of his reasons for voting the lynchee are pretty flimsy. His quadz vote, he even admits he's doing no thinking of his own, and just parroting the wrong (in hindsight, but he would have known that then) arguments of others. His Tazaro reasons amount to policy lynching, but the way Tazaro was playing, any reason to lynch him was a good one. He votes SSBF, then switches to Sotty, sheeping on Oso's reasoning. I think at this point, it would have been pretty clear to her scumbuddies that she was doomed. Now today, he's come out of the gate and is voting Xvart solely on setup speculation, and I KNOW I've been in games with multiple protective roles. All his SSBF suspicion is magically forgotten. Plus, what I think is a huge pointer towards q21 being scum is how when Xvart claimed yesterday, he made no mention of their being multiple protective roles claimed. And now, first thing today, that's what he votes Xvart on. I can just picture the scum QT

SSBF - "Let's kill Diddin and frame Xvart with it"
q21 - "Brilliant! We need to kill him anyway so he stops jailing us."
Day four rolls around
q21 - "Diddin was town, Xvart must be scum!" and he clearly doesn't plan on giving any more reasoning than that.

His Xvart vote is just flat out opportunistic. Not even trying to disguise it like he's a townie.

I'll do SSBF when I get more time (maybe tonight, but I doubt it), but until then.
Vote Q21


I will admit, that this setup seems extremely biased against the scum, but still possible depending on what the other scum roles are.
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Post Post #872 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 3:00 pm

Post by charter »

Another thing, if you look at page 12, both Sotty and SSBF vote Vezo in quick succession. Since Sotty was scum, and I think SSBF is likely scum, I don't think it's likely that Vezo is scum.

I think people should take a look at Q21, since he's played pretty scummily.
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Post Post #873 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 3:48 pm

Post by Super Smash Bros. Fan »

@charter: I am a Vanilla Townie. I didn't claim before, but I am a Vanilla Townie.
charter wrote:post 56 by SSBF is incrediscummy with how wordy, vague, and pointless the things he's arguing are.
Re-reading that post, I don't see how is it so increidibly scummy, when there has been scummier things that has happened. If you think that post is incredibly scummy, then what would you say for vezokpiraka's hammer on Tazaro?
vezokpiraka wrote:Charter more like scum now.
Really? Could you provide further explanation for this? For example, why is charter's Day 4 posts scummy?
charter wrote:764 by SSBF looks really bad. Sotty just got caught independently by two power roles, and he's ignoring that and voting vezok.
I was not completely ignoring Sotty7's being caught by two power roles. I explained my suspicion on Sotty7 and agreed that Sotty7 could be scum, but I thought vezokpiraka was even scummier, therefore, I felt it made more sense for me to vote vezokpiraka instead of Sotty7.
vezokpiraka wrote:Charter is confirmed lyncher cause there is no way three replacements ofund the same spot scummy.
Scum would be stupid to kill or roleblock me just based on my play.
I was town PR in a game and the scum left me alive hoping to force a lynch on me in LyLo.
I was confirmed town in another game and got to endgame. Confirmed town from day 1
1. It's possible that charter is a Lyncher, but he is by no means "confirmed" in any sense so far. That statement makes no sense.

2. Even if you were confirmed townie in that other game, you are not confirmed townie in this game. Your role is confirmed, but not your alignment. Please tell me how this relates to this game.
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Post Post #874 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 5:00 pm

Post by Oso »

Apologies folks. Last day and a half or so has been a bit hectic in real life. Post to let you know I am still here but it may be a day or so more before I can resume my level of activity.
My Uncle always use'ta say, 'You can't get no blood from a turnip.' .... He'd say the same thing about gettin' it from a stone, too.
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I never said nothin' back to him. You don't want mess with no freak that's searchin' around that hard for blood.

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