A Clash of Kings - A Divided Kingdom

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #2075 (ISO) » Mon Aug 23, 2010 9:10 am

Axelrod wrote: I don't have the time, but I could respond to that post, which totally was making irrelevant points. It was not a "snap" decision - which is
an interesting choice of words.

Emphasis added. The classic ‘Interesting’ attack. When you know you can’t say something is scummy but want to infer that it is.

Axelrod wrote:Because sometime people just say stuff that's on their mind? I made a bunch of posts which could hardly be characterized as "fluff" with some pretty decent analysis if I do say so myself, but you cherry pick this post to criticize as me upping my "fluff" post count? That's what was suspicious.

A bunch of posts with decent analysis? Can you name more than 1. I’ll be charitable and say your ‘Wagon’ analysis post is something that closely resembles decent analysis. Your huge POE IIoA post is hardly that. The rest of you flurry of posts are –

2013 is defense. No scum-hunting there.
2015 and 2016 are the same.
2017 is the fluff you are so offended I pointed out.
2018 is your Wagon post.
2024 is your POE.

Every post since then has been either responding to me or stating your time is limited.

In summary I find your suggestion that you’ve provided a ‘bunch of posts’ with ‘decent analysis’ to be a weak defense.

Axelrod wrote:What YOU should be doing is either agreeing that this is a good starting point, and then looking closer at said people yourself, or disagree that the post is valid. explain why not, and do something else.

And why aren’t YOU looking at the people on you POE list then? You are basically resting on you ‘laurels’ saying “I made this great post”.

And I’ve already pointed out the person on your list I want lynched repeatedly – Unsight. I made my case yesterday and earlier today.

Axelrod wrote:There is nothing wrong with my thougth processes. They are apparently better than yours atm.

I’ll certainly agree that your ad hominem skills are first rate

Axelrod wrote:Well, what's YOUR opinion about the other voters? You haven't said yet. Again, my post could be used as a starting point for a discussion about the lynch, were you interested in going there, but you don't seem to be.

And no-one else has either. That should be a clue that until Unsight flips making an assessment of the counterwagon is at best speculation. If Unsight is indeed Greyjoy I’d say that the other Greyjoy (in a 4-4 scenario) MUST be on the wagon. If Unsight is anything else the analysis is pointless.

So yeah, I really don’t think delving into the Rifka wagon is really worth the time right now. Are you trying to say that is scummy?

Unsight · Post Post #2076 (ISO) » Mon Aug 23, 2010 12:57 pm

I wish people would stop making analyses that rely on me being scum. I've already done everything short of word for word quoting my role PM and it's not a scum one. The possibility of me being scum doesn't exist, so planning around that is wasted time that could be going toward lynching SSBF and MagnaOfIllusion.

Thor665 · Post Post #2077 (ISO) » Mon Aug 23, 2010 12:58 pm

What do you think of CSL and Axel - your color coding hasn't clued me in as to which of them you may or may not consider scummier.

Unsight · Post Post #2078 (ISO) » Mon Aug 23, 2010 1:09 pm

Thor665 wrote:What do you think of CSL and Axel - your color coding hasn't clued me in as to which of them you may or may not consider scummier.

I haven't really liked CSL since the point where he voted Kleedrac and later came back with his explanation for the vote after. Shortly after that, Percy came at me with a "Why CSL and not XYZ?" I think it's pretty likely that if he is scum that he's Greyjoy scum in light of Percy's behavior.

My Axel suspicion comes from back on Day 1 where he chose CMAR over Raivann and then defended Raivann. Plus I'm not big on the choice to lynch Rifka over me (probably goes for din too) in that it's preferable for scum to lynch an unknown and keep a VT alive than lynch the VT and keep an unknown alive. Granted I like living, but choosing to lynch the unclaimed person over the claimed person is a scummy thing to do.

Super Smash Bros. Fan · Post Post #2079 (ISO) » Mon Aug 23, 2010 2:34 pm

Unsight wrote:so planning around that is wasted time that could be going toward lynching SSBF and MagnaOfIllusion.

You indicated that right now, me and Macavitar are your top two suspects with MagnaofIllusion at #3. Why not choose to lynch me and Macavitar instead of me and MagnaofIllusion if you think me and Macavitar are scummier overall?

diddin · Post Post #2080 (ISO) » Mon Aug 23, 2010 3:31 pm

Super Smash Bros. Fan wrote:
Unsight wrote:so planning around that is wasted time that could be going toward lynching SSBF and MagnaOfIllusion.
You indicated that right now, me and Macavitar are your top two suspects with MagnaofIllusion at #3. Why not choose to lynch me and Macavitar instead of me and MagnaofIllusion if you think me and Macavitar are scummier overall?

Correct me if I am wrong Unsight but I believe a lot of her Macavitar suspicion is based on a proposed scum connection with you, which I don't really buy.

Macavitar · Post Post #2081 (ISO) » Mon Aug 23, 2010 6:04 pm

MagnaofIllusion, my bolding wrote:
Macavitar wrote:So, Magna, why do you trust your opinion of the likely setup enough to potentially give up the game if you're wrong?
Because I trust my judgement and reasoning. Seriously, what sort of response are you expecting? And no, the conclusion that SSBF “must be lynched” under a scenario does not trump my conclusion that that I think we are under a 3-3-0-1 or 4-4-0-0 scenario. In terms of expected value
the percentage chance I attribute to the scenarios where he must be lynched are so small
they total expected outcome for me is ‘Do Not Lynch’ SSBF.

This is my point. How can you justify this "small percentage" if you don't have more info about the setup than the rest of us?

MagnaofIllusion wrote:If you don’t agree with my logic don’t follow it. More than a majority of the players in the game would need to agree (given 2 lynches today) for SSBF not to be lynched.

I'm obviously not going to follow your logic, but I'm also not going to ignore it. Finding faulty logic is often good scumhunting.

----

Unsight, your 2078 is rather interesting in that while you state your suspicions of both CSL and Axel, you don't state your lynch preference between them. Clearly, that's what Thor was asking in the post you quoted.

RichardGHP · Post Post #2082 (ISO) » Mon Aug 23, 2010 6:35 pm

I think the same group of people are going around in circles. Why haven't we lynched yet?

Macavitar · Post Post #2083 (ISO) » Mon Aug 23, 2010 6:42 pm

Richard, who do you want as the 2nd lynch today?

RichardGHP · Post Post #2084 (ISO) » Mon Aug 23, 2010 6:55 pm

Probably Unsight.

Super Smash Bros. Fan · Post Post #2085 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 1:48 am

RichardGHP wrote:I think the same group of people are going around in circles. Why haven't we lynched yet?

There is still time left for us to find scums and get rid of them. We need to use as much of the time as we feel is necessary. Granted, it probably isn't a good idea for us to scramble for a lynch in the last minute, but there is enough time left to find two scums in one day.

Eddard Stark · Post Post #2086 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 1:51 am

Vote Count 4.5 - The

"A harp is as dangerous as a sword, in the right hands."

Votecount

SSBF (4) - Macavitar, Unsight, CSL, RichardGHP

CSL (3) - Mikujin, Thor665, Super Smash Bros. Fan
Unsight (1) - MagnaOfIllusion

Axelrod (3) - Locke Lamora, diddin, hasdgfas

Not Voting (2) Mina, Axelrod.

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch. If a majority is reached the person with the second most votes will also be simultaneously lynched. That person would currently be Axelrod who reached 3 votes first.

Deadline is Midnight EST on the 5th of September, with a countdown available here

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #2087 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 2:46 am

Mac wrote:This is my point. How can you justify this "small percentage" if you don't have more info about the setup than the rest of us?

Let’s look at the two scenarios I’ve assigned a ‘small percentage’ 3-3-3-0 and 4-4-0-1.

Both have one thing in common – 9 total scum. With 26 players at the start that gives us a raw percentage of Mafia of 34.61% for each scenario. That’s over the high end of the ‘rule of thumb’ of 33%.

The fact that a we have already had 3 Lannister and 2 Greyjoy flips with no flips related to the theoretical third Mafia leads me to the logic conclusion that we are not 3-3-3-0. Also on the history of MS can you point to a Large game with 3 full fledged Mafia groups? My knowledge isn’t encyclopaedic but I’ve never seen more than two in games I’ve read here.

The 4-4-0-1 scenario is slighty more likely than the 3-3-3-0 but I still feel that it boasts too many scum at the start. The Town PRs that we know of (multiple version of weak / limited Vigs, Name Cop, Jailkeeper and Neighborizor) don’t appear to me to be so overwhelming that they would compensate for such a high starting group of Scum.

Mac wrote:I'm obviously not going to follow your logic, but I'm also not going to ignore it. Finding faulty logic is often good scumhunting.

If you can point out faulty logic do so. I’m curious what you find so faulty about my thought process.

Richard wrote:I think the same group of people are going around in circles. Why haven't we lynched yet

It’s called discussion and scum-hunting. Just because you are happy to sit on your hands and do jack crap based on your cleared status doesn’t mean the rest of us should be so lazy.

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #2088 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 4:28 am

Because discussion is slowing I’ve decided to do a massive VC analysis. This post will summarize Day 1 through Day 3’s vote counts by Eddard.

Proven Town players (through flip or scan) will be colored blue.
Lannisters will be colored red.
Greyjoys will be colored green (for readability).

I’ll hide each Day in a Spoiler box. Each player will be replaced in all vote-counts with the current slot inhabitant for consistency purposes.

Day 1 –

Spoiler: Raw Vote Counts

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #2089 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 4:29 am

EWBOP - I only did Day 1 in that post because it is massive.

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #2090 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 6:55 am

Day 2

– Same formatting as Day 1 –

Spoiler: Raw VC Data

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #2091 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 7:02 am

Apparently this got eaten by MS earlier ... luckily I have everthing in Word ...

What do I take from Day 1 VC?

Wagons of Significance (at their peak)

RichardGHP (13) -

CryMeARiver

, MacavityLock,

I doubt it

,

LynchMePls,

xvart

,

Drippereth

, MagnaOfIllusion,

danakillsu

,

vezopiraka

,

Raivann,

Locke Lamora, Mikujin, diddin

Budja

(8) -

Drippereth, LynchMePls

, Super Smash Bros. Fan,

danakillsu

, RichardGHP,

vezopiraka

,

I doubt it,

Raivann

CryMeARiver

(10) -Hasd

gfas, LynchmePls

, MacavityLock, RichardGHP,

xvart

,

vezopiraka

, Axelrod, MagnaofIllusion, CSL ,

Raivann

(11) Mina, Mikujin, Locke Lamora,

julienvonwolfe

,

I doubt it

,

Rifka Vivieka

,

Percy

,Thor665,

Danakillsu

, Super Smash Bros. Fan,

CryMeARiver

(14) -

Hasdgfas

, MacavityLock, RichardGHP,

xvart,

Axelrod, MagnaofIllusion, CSL ,

Raivann

, Mikujin,

Percy

,

Budja, Vezokpiraka

, Locke Lamora,

LynchMePls

Regarding the Lannisters –

The Lannisters voted together often Day 1, even on insignificant wagons.

By Vote Count 4 IDI and xvart were both on Richard’s early wagon which dana later joined.

At Vote Count 14 Dana and IDI were both on Budja’s growing wagon.

At Vote Count 23 IDI an dana both join the Raivann wagon.

At Vote Count 24 IDI joins xvart on the CMAR wagon.

At Vote count 25 dana and IDI appear on Richard’s late minor wagon and park there for the day.

If we have any Lannisters remaining I have serious doubts all four would be involved in Richard’s early wagon. In my mind this indicates the chances of Mac, Muki and diddin as being Lannisters (on VC alone) are slim.

If we have any Lannisters remaining they may appear on at least one of the two major wagons (CMAR at 10 and CMAR at 14) where we only see 1 (xvart). After removing those I POE above leaves –

Richard, Axelrod, CSL, Locke

Regarding the Greyjoys –

We expect at least 1 Greyjoy (and possibly 2) remain in play. We have less data to work from with only 2 flips but Raivann and Percy were very careful not to vote together on any major wagons until CMAR 14. For this reason I expect that you will find at least additional 1 Greyjoy on non-Raivann wagon shown above with only 1 Greyjoy.

This leaves a Pool of Mac, Locke, Muki, diddin, SSBF, Axelrod, and CSL.

Regarding those off the majority wagons –

The following people appeared on only 1 or none of the major wagons above. Staying out of the limelight by not appearing on significant wagons is also worth a look.

Mina and Thor only appear on the Raivann wagon.
Unsight is the only active player not to appear on any of the wagons.

The grand pool of interest from this analysis is initially

Richard, Axel, CSL, Locke, Mina, Thor, Unsight, Macavitar, Muki, diddin and SSBF.

From this pool I am removing the following persons for the specified reasons –

Richard – Claim combined with flip of Ser Loras unfortunately clears him
Locke – Claim seems unlikely to leave him a Lannister since we have had no counter-claims to his Name Cop or seen any other confirmed Town informational roles
Thor – Proven Dayvig ability means he is likely not scum
Diddin – Only appears as a suspected Greyjoy list in the above VC analysis and Locke’s has represented his role name would not be Greyjoy aligned.
SSBF – Has claimed flavor that had not been counterclaimed and said flavor has killed both a Lannister and a Greyjoy.

My pool of interest for Day 1 thus is Axel, CSL, Mina, Unsight, Macavitar, and Muki.

I’ll be working Day 2 and 3 (hopefully) later today.

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #2092 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 7:38 am

EBWOP - the D1 pool of interest should be subsected as such -

Lannister only candidates - None
Greyjoy only candidates - Macavitar, Muki
Potentially either team candidate - Mina, Unsight, Axel, CSL

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #2093 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 7:44 am

What do I take from the Day 2 VC?

Day 2’s information isn’t on the face as rich as we have a wagon that develops strongly as the Day continues on scum (dana) with only 1 significant counter-wagon (SSBF).

Important Points in dana’s wagon

Initial Count -

Danakillsu

(3) -

Percy

, Thor665, Mikujin

Xvart busses -

Danakillsu

(6) -

Percy

, Thor665, Mikujin, Axelrod, RichardGHP,

xvart

Before CSL loses vote -

Danakillsu

(10) -

Percy

, Thor665, Mikujin, Axelrod, RichardGHP,

xvart,

LynchMePls,Vezokpiraka, Benmage

, CSL

At lynch - Lynch Count

Danakillsu

(12) -

Percy

, Thor665, Mikujin, Axelrod, RichardGHP,

xvart

,

LynchMePls, Vezokpiraka, Benmage

, MagnaofIllusion, Unsight,

Rifka Viveka

Important Points in SSBF’s counterwagon

Initial Count - Super Smash Bros. Fan (3) - h

asdgfas

,

I Doubt it

,

LynchMePls

Next vote (same time-frame as xvart’s bus) - Super Smash Bros. Fan (4) -

hasdgfas

,

I Doubt it,

LynchMePls

, Unsight

LMP moves to Dana - Super Smash Bros. Fan (6) -

hasdgfas

,

I Doubt it

, Unsight, CSL

, Rifka Viveka

, MacavityLock

Counter wagon tops out - Super Smash Bros. Fan (7) -

hasdgfas

,

I Doubt it

, Unsight, CSL,

Rifka Viveka

, MacavityLock,

danakillsu

Regarding the Lannisters –

If any Lannisters remain xvart’s bus combined with IDI and dana’s coordination leads me to believe that the remaining Lannister(s) would be found either very late on dana’s wagon or completely off the wagon.

Players late on the wagon – Unsight, CSL (until his vote was removed)
Players never on wagon who pushed SSBF – Mac (also voted Muki and vezo in similar fashion to dana), diddin
Players never on wagon who did not vote for SSBF – Locke, Mina

Regarding the Greyjoys –

The NK of Raivann N1 makes the available data less useful. That said I would expect at least one other Greyjoy on the dana wagon. I also expect them to show up generally earlier given Percy’s quick vote for dana Day 2.

Players voting for Dana before xvarts bus and without voting others – Thor, Miku, Axelrod, Richard

This gives me the following Day 2 pools of interest –

Lannister – Unsight, CSL, Macavitar, diddin, Locke, Mina
Greyjoy – Thor, Muki, Axelrod, Richard

As with Day 1 I’m removing the following players from the pools –

Richard, Locke and Thor based on the exact same reasons as Day 1.
Macavitar – His play Day 1 put him in the potential Greyjoy pool. The result today is exactly the opposite so he’s on the back-burner as less likely either.

Final Day 2 pools of interest –

Lannister – Unsight, CSL, diddin, mina
Greyjoy – Muki, Axelrod

Unsight · Post Post #2094 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 2:43 pm

diddin wrote:
Super Smash Bros. Fan wrote:
Unsight wrote:so planning around that is wasted time that could be going toward lynching SSBF and MagnaOfIllusion.
You indicated that right now, me and Macavitar are your top two suspects with MagnaofIllusion at #3. Why not choose to lynch me and Macavitar instead of me and MagnaofIllusion if you think me and Macavitar are scummier overall?
Correct me if I am wrong Unsight but I believe a lot of her Macavitar suspicion is based on a proposed scum connection with you, which I don't really buy.

A lot of it comes down to kill flavor integrity. If the kill flavor is consistent then it means that SSBF is indeed the serial killer which puts MacCavitar in the clear (relatively). If SSBF flips mafia then I think MacCavitar will too. There's no question that SSBF is scum, it's only a matter of finding out what flavor of scum he is.

Unsight · Post Post #2095 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 2:56 pm

Macavitar wrote:Unsight, your 2078 is rather interesting in that while you state your suspicions of both CSL and Axel, you don't state your lynch preference between them. Clearly, that's what Thor was asking in the post you quoted.

Between the two of them, I'd definitely prefer lynching CSL.

Mina · Post Post #2096 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 4:55 pm

I so should've been prodded by now. I'm sorry for playing such a terrible game. There's stuff I'd wanted to bug Macavitar and MagnaofIllusion and Axelrod about for ages, but I can't focus on this game for long enough. And there's so much juicy information in this eighty-four page monstrosity that I haven't even synthesized. All I want is a few days off with no other game but this one, on a computer instead of a phone, so I can do all the necessary research and actually ISO people and make cases and ask hard-hitting questions and look for connections. I hate trying to make decisions when I'm missing pieces of the puzzle. All I can say is that I'm hoping it gets better after other games of mine end, and feel free to ask me questions or attack me if it'll help you read me. Also (oh noes, AtE alert!), lately I'm not sure what's the point of trying to be aggressive and push my opinions when I'm just going to come to the wrong conclusion anyway.

Seriously, Axelrod, I'd like to know exactly what I've done to make you so unflaggingly confident in my towniness. Essentially everyone else has gone back and forth on me throughout the game.

I've had a sneaking suspicion dawning on me recently, but one that's grown by CSL's most recent posts. That being, CSL might actually be town.

Part of it is that I no longer think CSL is a likely Greyjoy, because of how strong Percy's interactions are with him. But he also seems too casual about his own demise. He actually seems genuine about wanting to trade his own life for SSBF's.

I'm less sure about SSBF (most of his recent posts have this oily

smarminess

to them), but all the people attacking him for vigging vezok instead of CSL rub me the wrong way. He'd said he would kill one of the two, but was leaning toward CSL. At the end of D3, everyone was nagging him to kill vezo instead. What would be the SK motivation to kill vezok over CSL?

For now, I'm going to

Vote: Axelrod

. I reserve the right to flip-flop horribly on a reread, since I'm starting to wonder if he's the best strategic lynch. Need to think on a few things.

To be honest, though, I'm starting to feel worse about Unsight. His (is he male or female?) prickliness and certainty about SSBF rings false. In hindsight, I should have voted him yesterday over Rifka.

I'm extremely impressed by the effort that went into MagnaofIllusion's vote count analysis, and I'm going to use those posts as a reference for the rest of the game. That said, I don't like some of the assumptions he's making (although maybe I'm biased because it makes me look bad). That kind of analysis is too easy to manipulate.

For example, why are you assuming the Greyjoys would all be early on dana's wagon and not on SSBF's? To them, a dana and SSBF lynch would be interchangeable, now that we know SSBF wasn't a Greyjoy. I know Percy himself said he thought that early dana voters were likely to be Greyjoys (and I find it a Greyjoy tell that you stumbled upon this same theory, since you could have discussed pushing this in your QT). But I highly doubt he'd say something like that if BOTH of his partners were early dana voters. He gets no town cred for indirectly steering town's attention their way.

Maybe Axelrod fits as a Greyjoy, but at least one of Percy's partners should be a player who was late to the dana lynch or sat on SSBF all day. Like MacavityLock, or Unsight, or...well,

you

. Not crazy about the reasoning you used to clear Mac.

Also, why didn't you use the same reasoning from D1 (that people who weren't on most of the popular wagons are more likely to be scum) for your Day Two analysis?

Personally, I prefer looking at partner interactions to vote count analysis. So for example, Mikujin is almost certainly not a Greyjoy because of his interactions with Raivann, so the fact that he coincidentally fell into a category of early dana voters is irrelevant.

That said, my suspects for Lannisters were Macavitar, MagnaofIllusion, diddin, and Unsight, with CSL and Axelrod to a lesser extent. But all four Lannisters would have been on the Richard wagon on D1 if one of my first three suspects was a Lannister. I personally don't think it clears diddin, since I can see Migwelloni being reckless enough to put Richard at L-1 without caring that his buddies were all on the wagon. But that does make Unsight a much more likely Lannister. I need to reread his interactions with xvart.

Mina · Post Post #2097 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 5:00 pm

I did not realize how much that had grown in size in the text box. 0_0

Um, mentally add a line break between paragraphs seven and eight if you want that to be readable.

Seacore · Post Post #2098 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 5:20 pm

I'll be leaving you guys in the capable hands of Faraday for a little while. I'm off to go get married and then have a nice tropical honeymoon. Should be back in fortnight. Good hunting.

CSL · Post Post #2099 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 6:03 pm

Mina, is this how you really play? Why are you calling it terrible?

Yes, you must answer these questions.