Ladies Night -- Game Over

[Snow_Bunny]

Ah, it was not nice to not wait me before lynching. I still want camn love, but I'm also interested in how the Paws wagon build so fast. Specially fenchurch's hammer vote.

But I will go on that later when I have a bit more time. Can't let the boss see I'm procrastinating when I should be working...

[UncertainKitten]

Well, it appears my early prediction was right about the Paws wagon. Unfortunately I let myself get swept into it nonetheless. At some point I'll take a look at the motivations on the wagon and see who had the most scum intent in lynching the useless one.

[DrippingGoofball]

The Paws wagon is a REALLY BAD BAD BAD wagon to be on as scum.

It would look bad, even if LATE on this wagon.

Think: a quick wagon on a lurker

that was about to be replaced

. Were I scum, I wouldn't touch it with a barge pole.

The scum is here, in the pool of non-voters:

camn (1) (

Snow_Bunny

)
Apokalyptika (1) (

cepi

)
Snow_Bunny (1) (

chauchaudotcom

)
UncertainKitten (1) (

Sucrose

)
Sucrose (1) (

Hoopla

)
Not Voting (2) (

Ojanen

)

[Sotty7]

Looking back, chauchau parked her vote on Snow for extremely weak and almost non game related reasons. The whole lurking meta thing is a horrible reason to keep your vote on someone for a big chunk of day one. While other things that were actually happening in the thread, chauchau kept harping on the lurking when Snow wasn't even lurking. That isn't scum hunting, that isn't anything but fluff.

Gently eggs on the Paws wagon here without seeming to commit either way. I have no idea if chauchau thought Paws was scum or town or what. It was almost as if she was afraid to state either way.

Vote: chauchau

Going to take a look back at the Paws wagon hopefully a little later on today but I defiantly feeling chauchau was scum off wagon.

[UncertainKitten]

You don't (often) get a majority on town D1 without at least one scum. I guarantee there is one scum there, likely a goon, because as you said it was a bad wagon to be on.

Admittedly, 2/6 is a lot better than 1/7. I'm content to look off wagon for now.

[DrippingGoofball]

Yeah but the wagon was scary fast. There may not be scum on it at all. In any event, off-wagon is the place to look for today.

[camn]

Hmm.

I tend to disagree with Soty re: chaucahu. Although what she says is true, I could see it as a townie who is unconvinced. Plus I like chau's tone overall.

I do agree with Ukitten that there was a scum on-wagon. No way it was entirely towndriven... and I think they were on early. My gut says Haylen. Her justification for her vote HERE is very very thin.
Plus her early explosion is followed by a pretty neat style-correction... which looking back could be daytalk-influenced.
Also, her last couple posts.... short fillers.. especially THIS ONE, they seem like someone reminded her not to lurk. Could her conscience have reminded her? sure. Or her partners.

Off wagon? Obv SnowBunny.

so.....

VOTE: HAYLEN

preview edit:
-------------------
@DGB
I am OK with searching Off wagon TOO.. but I want to get this down while I am thinking it!

..

actually.. god I hate to do this twice in the same game.. but

UNVOTE
VOTE : SNOW BUNNY

Her last post really bugs me.
What would we be waiting for?
She spent the ENTIRETY of day one pushing a nonexistent case on me. Who would have thought she had anything

at all

to add to the Paws discussion?
I guess she did say THIS..... setting up a Paws-vote if the mis-wagon happened to stall.
But that last post reeks of "guys, I would have been so against that townie lynch if you would have just waited for me " [/cartman-voice]

She is scum.

[UncertainKitten]

Scary fast wagons imply to me that scum are more likely on. It's easier to jump in with the momentum.

[Haylen]

Her justification for her vote HERE is very very thin.

Hypocritical. If I remember correctly, you were using the same reasoning.

Also, her last couple posts.... short fillers.. especially THIS ONE, they seem like someone reminded her not to lurk.

I've been insanely busy the past week. I made that post in more than one game on that day. In fact, the day I made that post, I spent most of arguing with Universities and telling them their system sucks. Then after that, my Dad paid for me and Jordan to go out for a 3 course meal which was awesome. Then we went and played poker with Battle Mage and some other people, I lost but hey I got to the semi finals. I'm gonna stop now cause I get the feeling I'm going on and on.

Plus her early explosion is followed by a pretty neat style-correction... which looking back could be daytalk-influenced.

You wanted to vote me because you think I'm a mason?

Vote camn

[Fenchurch]

The scum is here, in the pool of non-voters

You don't (often) get a majority on town D1 without at least one scum. I guarantee there is one scum there, likely a goon, because as you said it was a bad wagon to be on.

Admittedly, 2/6 is a lot better than 1/7. I'm content to look off wagon for now.

In regard to mafia being on/off the wagon on a mislynch... I'm pretty sure someone analysed newbie games a while back, and found that scum were on/off in the same ratio as townies were. Might not apply here but I think the point is that it's worth looking at every person's play, rather than limiting the net to just one side of the wagon.

That said, vote chart for reference and analysis is here

In defence of my hammer vote, maybe it was foolish, but I thought there was a good chance Paws was scum, especially after her self-vote, and I knew I would find it much more painful to lynch after she was replaced, so I decided to go with it based on the merits of what Paws had already provided.

And

thanks Red

for the adjustment to vote counts.

Absolutely. The vote counts are for the players' benefit, so I don't mind changing it. Hoopla + you weren't the only two people to complain about them in either case.

[Fenchurch]

Has anyone else followed up on Ojanen's point about coaching-speculation? As far as I can see...

In 157 esuriospiritus suggests that Sotty might have been coaching Paws.

In 184 Apok comments that esurio may have a good point with this.

In 187 Sotty says that she was coaching in a way, in that she was trying to teach a new player.

In 229 esurio repeats her suspicions of Sotty coaching Paws.

And finally, in 283, Haylen implies that she is STILL unaware that mafia have daytalk. Given that this comes AFTER Ojanen has pointed out that they do, either Haylen hasn't been reading the game properly, or she's attempting to drop a deliberate (and now invalid) town-tell... I don't know what to make of that.

[UncertainKitten]

Analyzing newbie games would skew the result. Intent is less clear because most of the players are less clear on how to play their alignment.

Either way, looking at a subset of players for awhile helps me concentrate and then usually mass clear once I've found the requisite scum in the thing.

[esuriospiritus]

Bah, go town, etc.

[Hoopla]

Ah, it was not nice to not wait me before lynching. I still want camn love, but I'm also interested in how the Paws wagon build so fast. Specially fenchurch's hammer vote.

But I will go on that later when I have a bit more time. Can't let the boss see I'm procrastinating when I should be working...

Snow, you have no idea what you're talking about. Fenchurch's hammer vote is about as town as hammer votes gets. DGB has provided some good preliminary reasoning on where we should be lynching today - but she's missing a trick here;

The Paws wagon is a REALLY BAD BAD BAD wagon to be on as scum.

It would look bad, even if LATE on this wagon.

Think: a quick wagon on a lurker

that was about to be replaced

. Were I scum, I wouldn't touch it with a barge pole.

The scum is here, in the pool of non-voters:

camn (1) (

Snow_Bunny

)
Apokalyptika (1) (

cepi

)
Snow_Bunny (1) (

chauchaudotcom

)
UncertainKitten (1) (

Sucrose

)
Sucrose (1) (

Hoopla

)
Not Voting (2) (

Ojanen

)

I'd suggest that the BACK-END of the Paws wagon is place scum would least like to be - opening up positions at the front for scum too. It would certainly not be such a heinous crime being situated at the beginning of the wagon. Everyone knows it's the back-end of wagons that receive the most heat, particularly on policy-esque type lynches, making the front of the wagon slightly safer. The three scum are

definitely not

all on the Paws wagon - I think we can all agree on that. I'm personally siding with one over two, mostly because there was little competition for Paws wagon to encourage or force scum to bundle on. This is the only time when scum will

all

bundle on a wagon - when they risk losing one of their own if that particular mislynch doesn't go through. It must be noted that bussing is less likely to be a prime scum tactic in this game, as this is one of the few games onsite that will start off with a natural town slant. This is two more lynches allowed for town, when compared to a regular 3:9 Mini Normal.

To summarise, I almost certainly will be lynching from the pool of non-Paws voters, with Snow, Sucrose, chauchau being my order of preference for the noose. I'll be bringing you some more shortly on this, but I just wanted to get my vote out there early.

VOTE: Snow Bunny

[Hoopla]

You don't (often) get a majority on town D1 without at least one scum. I guarantee there is one scum there, likely a goon, because as you said it was a bad wagon to be on.

Admittedly, 2/6 is a lot better than 1/7. I'm content to look off wagon for now.

In regard to mafia being on/off the wagon on a mislynch... I'm pretty sure someone analysed newbie games a while back, and found that scum were on/off in the same ratio as townies were. Might not apply here but I think the point is that it's worth looking at every person's play, rather than limiting the net to just one side of the wagon.

I have the data for 3:9 Mini Normal games, in regards to the amount of scum on and off the D1 mislynch of a townie. 3:9's are admittedly rather different from the set-up we're playing in now, but they're miles closer then 2-player scumteams, who function in a completely different manner than 3-player scumteams. Anyway;

Amount of scum on a 3:9 Mini Normal Day 1

Town

Lynch (43 games):

0 Scum - 1 (2.1%)
1 Scum - 13 (27.7%)
2 Scum - 18 (38.3%)
3 Scum - 15 (31.9%)

Actual odds

of scum on a 3:9 Mini Normal Day 1

Town

Lynch:

0 Scum - (2.4%)
1 Scum - (25.5%)
2 Scum - (50.9%)
3 Scum - (21.2%)

The first box showcases the actual data of what has happened in games, whilst the second box is the odds of where scum would be if the votes were random. It's hard to know what you can extract from this information and what is directly relevent to this game. When I unearthed these stats, I was mostly surprised with how often all three scum were on the Day 1 mislynch of a townie, but I mostly attribute this to a high (25%) ratio of scum to townies, meaning that on Day 1, a scumbuddy is decently likely to be wagoned significantly at some point forcing scum to power through a townie mislynch. Looking at these individual wagons, it's almost always the case that a scum has been a competing wagon for a while - either that or the mislynch was on a lurker or someone pushed on policy grounds, giving scum a seemingly safe vote if they so wanted it.

The caliber of this player list is noticably a cut above the average newbie game, so this data might be slightly less relevent if the scum is familiar with bandwagon analysis (quite a few of us seem to have a very good grasp), which is something that makes me waver. Familiarity with scumtells and where scum is likely to be on wagons is the one thing that can thwart bandwagon analysis - scum knowing which tells are likely to be used against them are fully capable of manipulating this to their advantage. This is the reason why I mostly play Mini Normals, because bandwagon analysis is so effective against 3-6 month old players.

Breaking down the wagon to it's individual votes, there are a few that stand out. Sotty's to begin with is strange;

I don't mind policy lynches as much in larger games, would prefer if we didn't have to fall back on that tacit however.

Unvote, Vote Paws

Come and play. What are your thoughts on Hoop v Haylen? What's your opinion on policy lynching? Who's scummy to you?

She resorts to a policy vote, but qualifies the behaviour as something she dislikes doing, and would prefer not to do - but this vote lasts the entire day on Paws, which runs slightly contrary to Sotty's justification, as she never leaves this wagon for anything. It's perhaps a little brazen for scum, because I know she is a very adept scum player who must surely know this wouldn't look good if the Paws wagon went through.

I'm wary of DGB locking off the front half of the Paws wagon as non-important or non-scummy, especially since she is situated right in the middle of it. Such self-service doesn't surprise me, but it's particularly damning when you consider how much she was on Sotty yesterday, but seems to have forgotten that suspicion entirely. It was also particularly strange that she only voted once throughout the entire Day 1, and not until the end of page 9 to get on the Paws wagon. I'm making the call now - if there is more than one scum on the Paws wagon, it is Sotty and DGB together. Her vocal suspicion of Sotty is never backed up with a vote, despite being strong, which makes it look more like cheap distancing early whilst Sotty had little to no chance of coming into the limelight.

With how non-commital she is vote-wise, I could even see DGB as scum independent of Sotty's alignment. Her push of the Paws policy-wagon feels the worst, but mostly because she is trying to spin it as a town-driven wagon. This quote makes me pause;

Yeah but the wagon was scary fast. There may not be scum on it at all. In any event, off-wagon is the place to look for today.

I think DGB knows that fast wagons are fast because scum has their hand involved. Why would a town-driven wagon (on town) be faster than one with scum's help? When you consider towns to collaborate and compromise in their opinions, it makes no sense that town driven wagons run faster than scum driven wagons, and I think she knows this. It looks more like cheap justifcation to steer attention to the non-voters.

It brings me to the conclusion, that if DGB is scum, then there is 2 or 3 scum on the wagon. Because I'm finding her motivations very hazy,

CAMN

, I'd really like to contribute and share your thoughts on what I've posted on DGB. You can read her as good as anyone - does this play make sense for town DGB?

Continuing, camn's and Fenchurch's late influence on the Paws wagon is town, mostly because of reasoning DGB explained - scum have no reason to put themself in such a highly illuminated position - they have nothing at risk, so why push it? I'm also liking camn's start to Day 2 - her post on Snow_Bunny is solid.

Even though DGB is individually the scummiest character in the game, it still makes much more sense that there is multiple scum OFF the wagon, which supersedes behavioural tells in my eyes. The fact that DGB is espousing this point of view makes me wary, though.

[camn]

Hoopla, get out of my head!

As I said, I have been pretty uncomfortable with this non-aggressive DGB. It almost seems like she is vote-restricted or something, but I don't think that is in play this game.
If I had to guess, I would say she is trying to avoid attention, cop-wise... which doesn't make sense as DGB-town or DGB-godfather.

In her defense, she got a late start.. and we all have moods. I have a hard time getting into the groove of a game sometimes.. and late starts dont help.

RE: Your odds.. I agree with your analysis. I would add that Paws wasn't a normal townie-lynch, but a totally justified lurker-kill. . . which I think could skew the stats toward town.


@ Haylen: nice try, scum. You are no mason.

[Haylen]

No...you insinuated that I'm a mason because you think I can day talk. And then you voted for me :/

[DrippingGoofball]

I was basking in Hoopla-love for her super-townie post until I read her paranoid DGB hate-fest. But then, Hoopla is among the Paws non-voters, so, hey.

Now hun, you know my Sotty-scum read was dependent on Paws-scum. Paws flipped town, so if Sotty is scum, it sure isn't because she was coaching/bus'ing Paws her "scumpal."

Fast wagons may be frequently scum-driven, however, in this case, as I explained earlier, if I were scum I wouldn't be eager to hop on this wagon, especially in the late parts of it. I might have been on the earlier part of the Paws wagon, NOT EXPECTING this wagon to come to a lynch, parked in a safe place.

Also, camn, you know I'm town, so cut the BS. I might bring up that you lacked the proper camn amounts of lurker-blood-lust for Paws, that you wouldn't kill me night 1 which might explain my survival, that sort of stuff, and that would be unbecoming of ladies.

Fenchurch is almost certainly town, no way a scum would hammer a player for which the scum is trying to find a replacement.

I have to make dinner, I will look up a few things this evening.

[cepi]

People that should totally die:

- Apokalyptika.
- Snow Bunny.
- Haylen.

UNVOTE VOTE: APOKALYPTIKA.

[DrippingGoofball]

OK cepi is town.

[cepi]

I agree that the best places to find scum at this point of the game are either

a) The early parts of the Paws wagon. (Sotty7 - UncertainKitten - Apokalyptika - Haylen - DrippingGoofball) ->Prob Apoka and/or Haylen.

b) The non voters. (Bunny, chauchau, Sucros, Hoopla, Ojanen) -> Prob Bunny or chauchau.

c) My list. (the scumz)

[Hoopla]

OK cepi is town.

Even though two of her choices were on the Paws wagon?

[camn]

You are right, DGB, I would never kill you night 1, or lynch you day 1. Or vig you. But you DO seem to be lying a little low, ifyouknowhatImean.

Your thoughts on Haylen? Who almost certainly can daytalk?


and Cepi..
Snow Bunny is on your list.
Snow Bunny has 2 votes...

Why Apok?

[cepi]

Apok is obvscum.

[camn]

More than the others?

I mean.. I agree, and want Apok to hang... but a competing vote?