/Invitational 11: Pick your Poison 5 (Game Over)

[Patrick]

Votecount

ekiM (1) -- Ellibereth
zoraster (1) -- VasudeVa
Elmo (2) -- Kmd4390, DrippingGoofball
VasudeVa (2) -- Seraphim, SpyreX
ooba (1) -- Papa Zito
DrippingGoofball (1) -- mith

Not voting: Everyone else
17 alive, 9 to lynch.

Deadline: 11th of September, 6 am GMT.

[VasudeVa]

Seraphim, I agree with around 80% of what you said. However, you are wrong and I am town. I realize that the previous statement is pointless in Mafia but this tunnel on me is very, very bad. Emphasis on bad.

I am not going to waste energy trying to pick apart your attacks on me when I know that mafia is an interpretation heavy game and that's your interpretation of my play. And it seems that my attempts to give you my perspective on my play is just shrouded with your heavy confirmation bias.

Anyway, who are your other scum picks? Who are my supposed scumbuddies? Why is elmo a terrible lynch today?

@Spy: Cool. Why? Also stop being lazy(Here comes the hypocrisy accusations gogogog). You're way more competent than that. Are you not convinced by my 'OMG IM BEING WAGONED' antics?

@Papa Zito: Why do we need more dead ooba?

@ooba: I don't understand your last post.

@Elli: Why ekiM and the FoS-es?

[Herodotus]

And if so shouldn't Elmo claim before we start discussing what our response to his various claim possibilities would be?

On first and second read, mith's logic looks correct. It may be best if he just posts whether he did or did not target Amished. If he says he did not, then we have a liar among the two.

[Seraphim]

Hmm, interesting developments on this entire KMD-Elmo thing. I think that KMD needs to fully claim his results before I'm dropping any sort of vote down. The reason I wasn't interesting in voting him before was I didn't see anything scummy that he had done and his play had struck me as town. Elmo was a "terrible lynch" because I saw a wagon picking up on absolutely nothing. I obviously missed the subtle hints.

Also, VV, I am not going to stop attacking you until I am satisfied. You can try to dodge the case and yell "Confirmation bias" to high heaven but you haven't proved a thing. You can say I'm tunneling as much as you want to say but doesn't discredit my argument. I don't believe your play is town and your use of buzzwords rather than a real explanation of your play doesn't convince me. You look scum, scum, scum to me. Also, I gotta love how you're attacking, first me, and now SpyreX for being lazy, who, coincidentally, are the main two proponents of your wagon.

Anyway, who are your other scum picks? Who are my supposed scumbuddies?

I ain't gonna play this game, sorry. This isn't how I play. I can't name scumbuddies and I'm not going to name other players as scum. I'm a one-at-a-time kinda guy. You call it tunneling, I call it "focus".

Who do YOU think is scum, VasudeVa, and why? zoraster, certainly, but what's your case on him? Or what assessment do you agree with?

[VasudeVa]

Well, you're still wrong and if you want to stay in confirmationbias ville, then by all means stay. I've already told you that I cannot discredit your interpretation on my play simply because it is an interpretation. How the hell do you defend against another person's interpretation anyway?

No idea who's scum yet. Maybe zoraster, hence the vote. And here's another 'I'm using my vote to gather information' explanation which is inherently not wrong and I will be doing it until I find something I like/dislike.

[Elmo]

In fact, given that last bit, I don't think Elmo should even claim unless he

didn't

target Amished (in which case we do lynch him and then Vig Kmd if Elmo is innocent).

This is me not calling KMD a liar. Where do we go from here?

[mith]

My suggestion is we proceed to lynch as we normally would, with the additional information that Kmd is basically confirmed innocent and Elmo is likely scum for the purpose of bandwagon analysis.

If you're the Vig, you try to shoot scum (and almost certainly get blocked and killed, at which point we yell at Kmd for outing a power role needlessly). If you're not the Vig, the Vig shoots you unless the Vig shot Amished (since you couldn't have killed tajo unless you and Kmd are both lying). I think our worst case is "Elmo is Mafia Roleblocker and blocked Amished, Vig shot Amished"; the former seems so unlikely that I think we're better off ignoring it (and revisiting in a day or two if Elmo is still alive).

If we have a Weak Doctor, Kmd should be protected (probably best way of catching him if he and Elmo are both scum and this is some sort of bizarre bus-y gambit). If we have a Jailkeeper, WIFOM the scum on Kmd.

Am I missing anything?

[Kmd4390]

unvote

Fine with mith's plan.

[Elmo]

Hmm. Hypothetically speaking, the scum know how many trackers there are.

Nitpicky, but I'm liklier-than-usual scum rather than likely. In the worst case it's 50%, vs. 25% at random.

[SpyreX]

Now that I reread this with the brain fully functioning.

Unvote, Vote: Elmo

Mith, why are you playing up every option besides "KMD tracked Elmo directly to the kill".

This isn't rocket science. Killing a scum now frees up the the actual vig to go hunting for the other scum (hint: VV). Further, Elmo being ON the hoopla wagon sheds some light on what is going on there.

If town, Elmo can't be a JK, Hider or Doc. Its either Tracker or Vig. I'm not buying some kinda "ohh, the tracker tracked the 'other' tracker to the dead guy" so its pretty much vig or scum.

And when ISO reveals nothing about Amished but there sure could have been reasons for a VV or KMD shot

at minimum

an explanation is in order. Which we're not getting.

So, I'm aiming for

d.) Lynch Elmo, scum flip, real vig gets to shoot at other tech players in this dance (VV springs to mind again or a mithbuster). High fives all around.

[Kmd4390]

Wait, what? (To elmo)

[Elmo]

KMD: What at what?

[Kmd4390]

vote elmo

I like spy's words.

[Kmd4390]

Elmo, I don't understand that post.

[Elmo]

What do you not understand about it? First part, second part, both?

[Kmd4390]

All of it

[Herodotus]

@Spy: Letting the vig take care of Elmo frees up the

town

to go hunting for the other scum. Isn't that just as good, if not better, due to generating wagons to analyze? Only downside I see is the possibility of outing more PR's, but (1) that risk is always present in the day game, and (2) KMD is now nearly confirmed as a town PR, so the scum already know who they're likely to kill.

And the advantages of vig-elmo, even if you consider it a very small chance, seem to make it worth the cost of waiting for his death if he's scum.

[mith]

Bleh, Herodotus stole my thunder.

Again, to summarize:

If he is scum, he dies either today or tonight. These are basically equivalent.
If he isn't scum, lynching someone else gives us a chance to hit scum today.

This isn't rocket science. This is the correct town play.

[Seraphim]

No idea who's scum yet. Maybe zoraster, hence the vote. And here's another 'I'm using my vote to gather information' explanation which is inherently not wrong and I will be doing it until I find something I like/dislike.

Why is zoraster "maybe scum"? Jesus Christ, this is like pulling teeth.

And stop screaming "confirmation bias". What parts of your play point you out as town, seeing as I've chosen the parts that "make you look like scum"?

Also, just for clarification, is KMD claiming to have tracked Elmo to Amished or is he claiming to have tracked to tajo?

[zoraster]

isn't everyone "maybe scum"? In any case, sorry for the absences. Been bad timing with travel, the timing of night, etc.

I'm reviewing back, but some of my reading feels "stale" if you know what I mean. Perhaps better to answer some questions to get back into it? Anyone have any for me or was that wagon just driven out of malaise?

[Seraphim]

I'll be honest: I'm still not completely sure what the deal with your wagon was.

[SpyreX]

Going out for a movie but I'm not done with this.

In the meantime,

@Elmo:

Why did you take that shot over others?

[Elmo]

I'm not buying some kinda "ohh, the tracker tracked the 'other' tracker to the dead guy" so its pretty much vig or scum.

Yeah, I have to agree here, it's very unlikely. I don't even think it's likely the scum gave out two trackers as opposed to something like a jailkeeper. I am a vig, I shot Amished, let's have a conversation about that!

By the way, to think I'm scum, you have to think the vig shot Tajo, so "Elmo is scum for not shooting Vas/KMD" is clearly wrong. I had Tajo down as pretty solid town, and I don't think anyone voiced suspicion of him, either, so feel free to argue. Ironically, this is written largely for KMD, so I don't get accused of vig-fishing!

I shot someone I hadn't said I was suspicious of because a) I spent most of my time on Day 1 concentrating on Hoopla and reread on Night 1 b) there wasn't much that I liked happening on Day 1 c) I wasn't too vocal about who I suspected because I don't want to make it easier for the scum to narrow down the vig.
I actually think you would actually find literally any choice of shot suspicious unless they flipped scum, because either they'd contradict what I've already said or they'd be people you think are bad choices.

I've specifically said I didn't buy into the VV wagon, and why; I didn't shoot him because I don't particularly think he's scum, he's probably not going to sneak to endgame, and I think his wagon will be quite informative - if he is scum. I'd rather he was lynched than vigged, because we'd be able to see who pushed the wagon. I disagree with the reasoning, but if he flips scum, I'm probably wrong, and his attackers probably have solid reasons for it, and they'll look very town in retrospect. I think he's quite likely to flip town in the pure numbers sense (more townies than mafia), so I'd rather have the arguments against him spelled out before he dies, apart from Seraph I thought they were fairly vague; he's a pretty juicy mislynch, and I felt some people (can't remember specifically) were clambering aboard for weak reasons. I also remember someone from a previous game saying it was a bad idea to vig easy lynches, which kinda stuck with me. (Think this is Sir Tornado in Traditional Mafia.)

I was thinking of shooting KMD, ironically, but I wasn't sure if the lurking was a temporary thing; I think it was DGB who said he got easier to read as the game went on. I said near the end of the day that I thought a good start to Day 2 would be a KMD wagon, you can find that - it would hopefully get him posting if he was town. I also bought into what mith said about him, you can see me asking mith about that on Day 1. I'm not going to shoot someone I think is mildly town who may wake up and start playing soon.

Other candidate in my mind was zoraster, because he seemed to tunnel on DGB and not do much else; I'm not sure on DGB, but I would have at least commented on Hoopla in his position. That may just be how he plays, though - I can easily see him genuinely wanting DGB dead over everyone else, and you need to talk about pretty much her alone to get that done.
I didn't want to shoot DGB based on Day 1 simply because I thought we would bring up the gambit later, probably wagon her, and be much better informed for that. I've been WIFOMing myself slightly about whether she would pull that gambit as scum knowing there was a vig in the game.. I dunno, maybe.

I wanted to shoot Night 1 because we would have an even number of people alive if the scum kill went through and I didn't, I'm not sure about the math of shooting after that - I was going to make some comment about it today, probably propose directing 'the vig' and get mith to talk more about numbers. I shot Amished because:

Amished's early vote on me largely misrepresented how I knew DGB was fakeclaiming - I won't pedal the semantics here, but I thought his entry onto my early wagon was the weakest of all the votes, and wouldn't be a bad place to start looking tomorrow.

Amished, you say you want to convince Zoraster that he is wrong. This implies a strong town read on Zoraster (scum already know and don't need to be "convinced"). Why so sure Zoraster is town?

I largely agreed with this, I can't see anyone getting a town read on Zoraster based on the way he's played; it looked like a slip.
I didn't strongly agree with Tajo's reasons for suspecting Amished, but he generally has a good gut, which factored into it.

Think that's everything I wanted to say, KMD, I'll try and explain that post after I eat.

[Seraphim]

Well, there, my question is answered. I'm going with the consensus that neither Elmo nor KMD is getting lynched today.

[Elmo]

Hmm. Hypothetically speaking, the scum know how many trackers there are.

KMD is a tracker. mith's reason for me not claiming (to hide info from the mafia) relied on the possibility that I was a tracker, for which there have to be two trackers in the game. If there aren't two trackers in the game, the scum already know I'm a vig regardless of what happens next, and I should just claim.

Nitpicky, but I'm liklier-than-usual scum rather than likely. In the worst case it's 50%, vs. 25% at random.

Doc/JK apart, there are two people who killed last night, one mafioso and one vig. If you totally discount me being another tracker, then I have a 50% chance to be a mafioso or 50% to be vig. A coinflip is not what I'd call likely.

There are 17 people in the game. If oneself is town, there are 16 other people, of which 4 are scum; 4/16 = 1/4 = 25%. So clearly I am more suspicious than random, and I don't object to that.