Open 236 - Pamplona Mafia (C9++) Game Over

[Prox]

I was wondering how shotty ended up killed. I probably wouldn't have wagoned until shotty claimed VT. But then there's the whole "shotty is drugged" thing...So oh well.

I have to agree that Netlava looks the worst. ekiM summarizes why nicely. I'd have to think hard about #2. I think I can probably narrow it down.

I'm so sorry about taking a back seat right now; time is so short...But I should have more time either this afternoon or the next. Then I'll do a real pbpa.

[The Fonz]

Well, the flips tell me quite a lot.

Firstly, I'm pretty sure ekiM is town. If Zajnet were scum, then they were almost certainly partners, but it made no sense for scum-ekiM to stick his neck out like that to swing the lynch from one town player to another (would have raised the chances of him being town).

Netlava looks bad for being the last living of that no original content/opportunistic/lurky group. Prox is all over the place. And I've got a bad feeling about yg, but I can't quite place it.

[ekiM]

So we've got...

yabba: The Fonz, ekiM, (Prox)
Netlava: Prox, ekiM
ekiM: Netlava, (Fonz), (yabba)
Prox: Netlava, (Fonz), (yabba), ekiM)
Fonz: Netlava, (Prox), (yabba)

Where brackets is lesser suspects. Sorry if I'm misrepresenting anyone. Now how do we go about deciding a massclaim order? I think we should get that done before we discuss anything else.

[yabbaguy]

STOP! Please stop listening to the others and hear me out.

My plan is to play this out without roleclaiming, and if we get scum lynched, then we might have a scenario of one confirmed Town, the Doctor, in the final LyLo, which raises the Town win probability up, or two Doctors and a Blocker puts Blocker in the driver's seat, the only other town PR I could plausibly see exist at this point. If we go ahead and get a Doctor to claim, we may get confirmed Town now, but we lose him in the LyLo that really matters. A Doctor who seems to be counterclaiming isn't actually counterclaiming if it's VVCDDDT!

It's too easy for scum to meddle with a massclaim at this point; even though there's some risk for them, I don't think it should be done. There's also VVCCDDT which gives them the license to bullshit any powerclaim

and get away with it.

I don't like this.

And I still want ekiM to explain why he used statistics back there to decide on shotty. Like, solely statistics. Nothing else. The math is good, but if you're informed, you know it's actually a 100% chance of shotty flipping Town.

[yabbaguy]

Firstly, I'm pretty sure ekiM is town. If Zajnet were scum, then they were almost certainly partners, but it made no sense for scum-ekiM to stick his neck out like that to swing the lynch from one town player to another (would have raised the chances of him being town).

Post link please?

[ekiM]

My plan is to play this out without roleclaiming, and if we get scum lynched, then we might have a scenario of one confirmed Town, the Doctor, in the final LyLo, which raises the Town win probability up, or two Doctors and a Blocker puts Blocker in the driver's seat, the only other town PR I could plausibly see exist at this point. If we go ahead and get a Doctor to claim, we may get confirmed Town now, but we lose him in the LyLo that really matters.

You know we lose if we lynch a townie today?

A Doctor who seems to be counterclaiming isn't actually counterclaiming if it's VVCDDDT!

D vs DDD is 37% vs. 2%. Discounting this.

There's also VVCCDDT which gives them the license to bullshit any powerclaim and get away with it.

Not seeing why this is so terrible. Explain?

And I still want ekiM to explain why he used statistics back there to decide on shotty. Like, solely statistics. Nothing else. The math is good, but if you're informed, you know it's actually a 100% chance of shotty flipping Town.

A solid 5-1 probability argument swayed me a lot more than anything else I was getting out of the game. The four townie deaths didn't help me figure anything out, and the general quality of the town has been low, making it rather hard to distinguish scummy behavior from poor town play.

I'm not really sure what you're getting at here. dr was at least as scummy as anyone else, AND probability said it was unlikely his claim was true. What's your problem with this? Why didn't you have a problem with it yesterday but you do now?

[The Fonz]

When I wrote 'increased his chances of being town' I meant 'vigged.'

A townie lynch doesn't end the game if there's a successful save. I don't see any need to out a doctor who might not get run up.

[The Fonz]

You know, looking back over the game, it's really hard to see why a scumgroup NOT including Netlava would kill Zajnet. I suppose there's the 'He's very scummy so unlikely to be protected' factor. I don't see any vig tells.

[Netlava]

The reasoning for a massclaim is that we can confirm the doctor, whereas running up a person and then having someone counterclaim is less clear because scum may counterclaim in lylo.

You know, looking back over the game, it's really hard to see why a scumgroup NOT including Netlava would kill Zajnet. I suppose there's the 'He's very scummy so unlikely to be protected' factor. I don't see any vig tells.

Reasoning for this?

[The Fonz]

You were his top suspect, he looked scummy and therefore was eminently mislynchable. One has to assume the scum were killing on the premise of 'Who of us is the most likely to be vigged, who's the most likely to do it, and who can we manipulate if one of us does die and it goes to another day?' For an ekiM/Prox/Aldusskel team, yabbaguy seems a more reasonable choice (assuming that I'm being kept alive either because I've been wrong, or because of doc fear). The same team but with yabba in place of prox probably kills prox or even you before Zajnet. Yabba/Prox I could maybe see.

_______________________________________
yabba actually really looks scummy for his 'Oh my, that nasty ekiM misled me!' thing. Especially since all ekiM's actions did was move the wagon from an unclaimed undercontributing scummy-looking townie to a weak-roleclaimed undercontributing self-contradicting scummy looking townie. There's no real strong reason to believe that's in scum's interests. Scum-ekiM would have known that drmy wasn't the vig or doc, but that Zajnet might have been.

Also, he is misrepresenting my play in MeF. I did not in any way, shape or form 'hyper tunnel' on StrangerCoug vs Quoi. I asked people to comment on it because it was the beginning of the game, and it was the first thing of genuine relevance I saw. And almost importantly, I did this

because that is my MO as town,

to try to get people commenting on relevant issues ASAP.

In this game, I was questioning Ythan because he appeared to be being evasive, and was really pissing me off. Note that I wasn't one of his initial attackers, and indeed never voted him. A straight answer would have got me off his case fairly early, since, as I made clear repeatedly, I didn't really see a particular scum motive for doing what he was doing, and stubbornness when it's bringing you suspicion is protown. I was trying to see if he would say anything that would confirm my town impression. I wasn't tunnelling on him. Again, not a lot was going on, due to lurking. I then went after lurkers.

The interesting thing is, I can see yabba connections to both Netlava and Prox. Prox, because yabba keeps him second on his suspect list, behind Zajnet, for quite a long time, and today, lo and behold, he's third behind me and ekiM. So yabba keeps Prox in the position where he midly cricitises him, but doesn't vote him.

OTOH, we have the 'Why is Netlava and not Ythan getting all the heat' thing in reaction to me, and others, voting him over him not seeing the flaw in Ythan's logic, and the fact that he COMPLETELY IGNORES Netlava in his first post today.

[The Fonz]

EBWOP to finish the top bit: Maaaybe yg/prox kill Zajnet, because Netlava's probably not that much harder to lynch than you are, but then, I'd have thought they'd have gone for ekiM. Although ekiM's whole push on Drmy possibly makes less sense if

he's

the doctor (and therefore knows there is one) so maybe that's a possibility.

[Nobody Special]

Votecount 3.01 (and Mod check-in)

Not voting: ekiM, Netlava, Prox, The Fonz, yabbaguy

With 5 alive, it is three to lynch.

Deadline is September 19.

Post 0 has been fixed; I do apologize for the mix-up. drmyshottyizsik was indeed the Town Backup Doctor. I currently only have online access once per day; I will post votecounts daily. If you need my attention, please send a PM. I am occasionally able to check email throughout the day.

Due to my extreme time limit at the moment, I am going to ask that you adhere to the rule that places votes on their own line and flush left. (I've been lax about this, but I would appreciate your cooperation.)

Carry on.

[yabbaguy]

I started this post earlier today, so I'll just start by replying to ekiM. All quotes his.

You know we lose if we lynch a townie today?

Yes, this and likely tomorrow is LyLo. That's obvious, but I'm saying that your suggestion of massclaiming isn't as effective today because scum are better off jerrymandering with a massclaim here than D4 (if they get caught lying- they get lynched, and then our confirmed Town falls.)

D vs DDD is 37% vs. 2%. Discounting this.

18.5:1 against that being the case != 0%. It's ridiculous that you're discounting things merely due to improbability, especially when probability just screwed the Town up D2.

Not seeing why [VVCCDDT] is so terrible. Explain?

It undermines the validity of almost any powerclaim beyond Doctor simply due to the fact that there may be no more powerroles left in the game aside from Doctor. That's why massclaiming has limited benefit.

A solid 5-1 probability argument swayed me a lot more than anything else I was getting out of the game. The four townie deaths didn't help me figure anything out, and the general quality of the town has been low, making it rather hard to distinguish scummy behavior from poor town play.

I'm not really sure what you're getting at here. dr was at least as scummy as anyone else, AND probability said it was unlikely his claim was true. What's your problem with this? Why didn't you have a problem with it yesterday but you do now?

I changed my mind from yesterday (yesterDay just looks dumb written out, kinda like Yabbaguy). Fonz does have a point that you switching from one Town to another has an element of unlikeliness, but at the same time, what bothers me is that there was A LOT of complacency when people accepted your new wagon. I know, I did it myself, but there had to have been free-riding scum on that. Ald, for one, was saying "Heh, :goodposting:" without blinking. What I would be willing to accept as an alternate theory is that you had Town motives for taking what what would be a gamble in that case, but scum were piggybacking on that incorrect gamble and driving the wagon up at light speed. I know, I was riding on that too, but I can't say much beyond this point other than it's not me.

I could see scum motives for you switching. Having confirmed Town shrinks the unlynchable pool, and the problem is that you didn't even dwell on shotty's scumminess when you brought up the probability point.

---

Like I said, stand by for the rest of my response.

[yabbaguy]

And you wildly botched the numbers, ekiM. We have 2 D inputs, which was 12% likely. It's 6:1 against DDD, which certainly isn't slim (shotty flipping Town was 5:1, IIRC)

[yabbaguy]

Replying to Fonz, all quotes his.

A townie lynch doesn't end the game if there's a successful save. I don't see any need to out a doctor who might not get run up.

Actually, the first part is wrong, a Doctor can't salvage a 2:2 now that we're out of vigilantes (unless one has been hiding the whole time for some inexplicable reason)

yabba actually really looks scummy for his 'Oh my, that nasty ekiM misled me!' thing. Especially since all ekiM's actions did was move the wagon from an unclaimed undercontributing scummy-looking townie to a weak-roleclaimed undercontributing self-contradicting scummy looking townie. There's no real strong reason to believe that's in scum's interests. Scum-ekiM would have known that drmy wasn't the vig or doc, but that Zajnet might have been.

Again, I have an alternate theory: his sudden realization was actually him finding a way to throw shotty back into the mislynchable pool. I, for one, wasn't willing to touch him without good reason, yet I stupidly bought into ekiM's reasoning on a reflexive whim.

Also, he is misrepresenting my play in MeF. I did not in any way, shape or form 'hyper tunnel' on StrangerCoug vs Quoi. I asked people to comment on it because it was the beginning of the game, and it was the first thing of genuine relevance I saw. And almost importantly, I did this because that is my MO as town, to try to get people commenting on relevant issues ASAP.

Tout le monde devrait donner une opinion sur SC/Quoi, ou trouver quelque chose qu'il pense soit plus important. Comment dit-on 'lurker?'

Everyone needs to give an opinion on StrangerCoug/Quoi, or find something that they think is more important. How do you say "lurker"?

...I actually missed that part where you brought up that "bringing up something more important", especially with Apathy Mode at the max. I'll give you that it wasn't blatantly dichotomizing.

What the heck does the word misrepresentation mean

to you

? How can you distinguish it from mis

interpretation

?

The interesting thing is, I can see yabba connections to both Netlava and Prox. Prox, because yabba keeps him second on his suspect list, behind Zajnet, for quite a long time, and today, lo and behold, he's third behind me and ekiM. So yabba keeps Prox in the position where he midly cricitises him, but doesn't vote him.

For one, I'm buying into your points, so Prox moves onto the second spot now. The reason I brought ekiM all the way up to the front of the line is that I believed that his appeal to probability was flagrantly scummy and has a legitimate incentive (although you disagree) for the informed minority to bring up if they know shotty's Town. That's why Prox hasn't been as large of a suspect, because while the point that his scumhunting is wishy-washy is sticking in my mind, I thought that this was a more concrete lead for me. I don't see how this line of thought is either not allowed or potentially scum-motivated.

OTOH, we have the 'Why is Netlava and not Ythan getting all the heat' thing in reaction to me, and others, voting him over him not seeing the flaw in Ythan's logic, and the fact that he COMPLETELY IGNORES Netlava in his first post today.

Well you didn't bring up Ythan, first off, and secondly, I didn't bring up Net simply because I thought he was Town in the wake of the other scumminess. I also just don't see Netlava/ekiM as the remaining two; I think ekiM's case on Netlava is merely "his scumhunting sucks", and that sounds like the weak, baseless case that just is trying to mislynch him.

I actually seesawed on whether or not to put you or ekiM on the top spot, and you can tell since I left "The other person" in front of your name in the first paragraph. I do think that his willingness to fire at shotty does have potential scum motives, so that's why I'm pursuing that.

The reason I'm not going after Prox as actively is just because he's not posting much, and I therefore can't continue the questioning. (he timed his 6-day flake-out rather beautifully, right on the cusp of N2.)

[Prox]

Feel free to continue now.

[yabbaguy]

Prox- my issue is that you're very swingy with your suspicions and that you're willing to question anyone on a whim having no clear stance on who you find scummy. Just from your ISO page 3, I notice you start by saying "Act, shotty", then it's "wth is with Dry-fit's lurking", then "Beefster's being opportunistic"

Nothing to say to that?

[Prox]

I thought I already said that I found it useful.

...but that points out my failure at scumhunting. I wish shotty hadn't been lynched...that happens far too often.

Nonetheless, your issue is a note of my playstyle. If you find it scummy, then...ok. What more is there to say?

[The Fonz]

I could see scum motives for you switching. Having confirmed Town shrinks the unlynchable pool, and the problem is that you didn't even dwell on shotty's scumminess when you brought up the probability point.

Well, for one, 80% chance of scum is ridiculously high. I would lynch on that alone every time, let alone when the player's also played like shotty did. Your criticism of it after the fact just looks like scum going for the mislynch.

Secondly, scum didn't need to throw shotty in the 'lynchable' pool, he was already there. As I said, I saw his claim as being perfect for scum in that scenario- weakest PR that won't get you lynched is always a good scum claim. In fact, possibly the only objection I could think of is that shotty is too dumb to come up with that. I particularly didn't like the way you tried to use that as an excuse to try to out the doc. Plus, they only needed one mislynch, if the vig didn't kill right. Zajnet was clearly in line for that.

One question- even if you don't buy the above, don't you think that it would serve scum ekiM to wait for Zajnet to be forced to claim? I always think, if someone puts their neck on the line to effect a large change in the game, and it doesn't obviously benefit scum, it's protown.

And you wildly botched the numbers, ekiM. We have 2 D inputs, which was 12% likely. It's 6:1 against DDD, which certainly isn't slim (shotty flipping Town was 5:1, IIRC)

Six to one is extremely slim.

yabba, you have a point on no chance if we mislynch: therefore, I withdraw my opposition to mc. I suppose, at least, it either clears a player, or commits a specific scum to the doc claim (whereas if we don't, either one can claim doc if facing lynch).

I could live with popcorn.

[yabbaguy]

Secondly, scum didn't need to throw shotty in the 'lynchable' pool, he was already there.

I don't buy that. I think he was merrily on his way to advancing to LyLo until ekiM brought up the statistics. You have to take into account that ekiM changed his mind, it's blatantly obvious that regardless of his alignment, this revelation dawned on ekiM post-facto.

Consider this, what if ekiM is the Spy (and the Spy MUST exist with only one T input) and he detected Zajnet was a vigilante? The result is given at Daybreak, so he would've investigated him last Night, and then gotten the result N1, yet would've been unable to convey the result until N2. That's why his opinon differed from any other Mafia that were on board. If Zajnet was driven to L-1 and claimed, he would've claimed Vigilante and either confirm himself or force out a Mafia, which presents an interesting scenario- the Mafia can't kill him if we NL, then the scummy counterclaimer gets busted! That's why waiting for Zajnet to claim would not have resulted in a lynch the way I see it.

The only hole in my theory is why Zajnet's kill managed to succeed with a Mafia RB in existence. A Town Blocker getting lucky is one possibility. My theory might be a bit rough in a few places, but Spy-meddling is my new theory for why it's scum motivated.

Do you also realize that scum-ekiM would know whether or not the statistics are correct/not?

Nonetheless, your issue is a note of my playstyle. If you find it scummy, then...ok. What more is there to say?

Nope, I find it scummy that you were being wishy-washy. That's that.

---

Still thinking on the massclaim issue...

[Nobody Special]

Votecount 3.02

Not voting: ekiM, Netlava, Prox, The Fonz, yabbaguy

With 5 alive, it is three to lynch.

Deadline is September 19.

[Netlava]

All this theorizing on why Zajnet got nightkilled is nice and all, but I'm not buying it. I think it's a stretch to theorize that a certain player is a certain role on a certain team as fringe theories are less likely to be accurate than general assessments of scumminess.

Not to mention Fonz's theory on how only I would NK Zajnet as scum is completely incorrect. If I were scum, I wouldn't NK Zajnet because he's a mislynch target, and I had expressed suspicion of him during the day. If I knew that he was a vig, nightkilling wouldn't change all that much as the vig kill would still go through (as it did). What would stop a kill on the other hand? Roleblocking. Zajnet getting NKed doesn't explain anything in my opinion, other than that scum made a poor nightkilling choice imo. Unless, of course, the "townier" looking players are actually scum. *shrug*

Speaking of general assessments, I think Prox's lack of activity is scummier than any so-called theory that has been conjured up so far. And also, I don't follow ekim's claim that Prox seems "town" because of some farfetched theory and Fonz's claim that ekim seems "town" because he successfully swang a mislynch. Doesn't make sense. I'm a bit wary of Fonz's defense of ekim, as defending other players is something that scum tend to do more often.

[Netlava]

Also, Prox, claim first. The doc isn't saving the game. A mislynch today and there's no night phase.

[The Fonz]

Guys, my home net is down atm, so i can read but replying at length is v tricky. Netlava, your point that 'scum are more likely to defend' just isn't true, especially at lylo- town should be willing to state who they think is scum and who town, and why. The fact that, as you yourself noted, yg's attempt to come up with an exp for why it makes sense for ekim as scum relies on ekim having a specific role, having targeted zajnet that specific night, then an unlikely town role existing, then that town role hitting precisely the scum rb. If you have to come up with that litany of individually improbable events to explain why he as scum would do that, but the town exp is very simple, then i'm going with the town exp. @ yg, yes, of course i know that if ekim is scum, he knew drmy was town. The words 'informed minority' ring a bell?

[Prox]

@yabba: wishy-washy is a misrep. I asked questions and focused on those answering them as they came and went.

@Netlava: School, sorry.

I like mass-claiming. Seems better. Doc save chance will be very low, especially since the mafia isn't deciding its kill randomly, leaving the chance that the mafia will target the doc, either randomly or thoughtfully.

Makes sense that I claim first, considering I have the least content.