In looking at the VC I’m going to focus my analysis on the following counts / series of counts. When I’m referring to unknown players in the analysis I’m specifically referring to players with alignments unknown to me.
The dueling Charlie versus MoI Wagons –
Charlie
(3) <-~ Erg0, MagnaofIllusion,
Sotty7
MagnaofIllusion (5) <-~
vollkan
, Jack,
JasonT1981
, Zajnet, farside22
Charlie
(4) <-~ Erg0, MagnaofIllusion,
Sotty7
, farside22
MagnaofIllusion (4) <-~ Jack,
JasonT1981
, Zajnet,
Charlie
Charlie
(5) <-~ Erg0, MagnaofIllusion,
Sotty7
, farside22, Sando
MagnaofIllusion (4) <-~ Jack,
JasonT1981
, Zajnet,
Charlie
Charlie
(4) <-~ Erg0, MagnaofIllusion, farside22, Sando
MagnaofIllusion (3) <-~ Jack, Zajnet,
Charlie
Prior to the first count Charlie and I were both a 1 vote – Erg0 for Charlie and vollkan for me. From a grouping standpoint I find it most likely that scum probably committed at most 2 members to each wagon (Charlie and mine) at the wagons peak. All three appearing on the wagon early in the day would be suicide based on the kind of analysis I am doing now.
Unknown players on my peak wagon – jack, Zaj, farside
Unknown players on Charlie’s peak wagon - Erg0, farside, Sando
I don’t think there is more than 1 scum in the set of jack, Zaj and farside. We know Jason was on my wagon during the two peaks.
I think there is at most two scum in the set of Ergo, farside, Sando.
Charlie’s final wagon –
Charlie
(7) <-~ Erg0, MagnaofIllusion, farside22, Sando,
jasonT1981
, S
otty7
, Zajnet
MagnaofIllusion (2) <-~
Charlie
, Jack
Jack (1) <-~
vollkan
Zajnet (2) <-~ Porochaz, Locke Lamora
If there are three scum on this wagon I’d be surprised. That only makes sense if Zajnet is scum. If Zajnet is not scum one scum is more than likely off the Charlie wagon.
Unknown players on final wagon – Erg0, farside22, Sando, Zajnet
Unknown players off the final wagon – Jack, Porochaz, Locke
Day 2:
The abbreviated nature of the day and the fact that we only have one major wagon leads me to focus on the major wagon and any budding counterwagons.
Jason’s Wagon as it built –
jasonT1981
(1) <-~
Sotty7
jasonT1981
(2) <-~
Sotty7
, MagnaofIllusion
jasonT1981
(3) <-~
Sotty7
, MagnaofIllusion, farside22
jasonT1981
(4) <-~ S
otty7
, MagnaofIllusion, farside22,
vollkan
jasonT1981
(5) <-~
Sotty7,
MagnaofIllusion, farside22,
vollkan
, Jack
jasonT1981
(6) <-~
Sotty7
, MagnaofIllusion, farside22,
vollkan
, Zajnet,
jasonT1981
Those not on Jason at lynch -
Jack (1) <-~ Erg0
vollkan (1) <-~ Sando
Zajnet (1) <-~ Jack
Not voting (2) <-~ Locke Lamora, Porochaz
Jason’s self-vote tells me that he was trying to protect at least one of his scum partners. Otherwise he wouldn’t have self-hammered. Also the wagon was very consistent through the day with only Jack getting off right before the self-hammer.
If Zajnet is scum then farside is very unlikely to be. This further strenghthe
If Zajnet is Town the likelihood that farside is scum rises slightly. It is possible that Jason was protecting both partners so it is only a marginal rise.
There is at least 1 scum in the set of Erg0, Sando, Jack, Locke and Poro.
Budding counterwagons –
Zajnet (2) <-~ farside22, Jack
Jack (2) <-~ Erg0, Sando
vollkan
(2) <-~ Sando,
jasonT1981
These are the only other players with more than 1 vote during the day’s VCs. Based on the fact that Sando was on two separate budding wagons while Jason’s wagon built he is one I see as most likely trying to divert from Jason.
Farside, jack and Erg0 all still bear watching.
Other factors for both Days – Jason’s vote movement –
On Day 1 Jason first appears on Sotty and later switches to Poro. He then parks on my wagon until Charlie’s solidifies itself as the stronger wagon. He then moves Zaj before hoping onto Charlie in 6th position.
On Day 2 he holds off voting for a significant amount of time before voting for vollkan. His vote stays here until he self-hammers.
I’m looking at his Poro and Zajnet votes as most likely votes meant to skew a VC analysis. He wasn’t under voting pressure Day 1 and thus was free to make bussing votes. I especially think this is true because he didn’t return to either of those players Day 2 but went for a now-confirmed Town with his vote.
Going into the day I was most focused on Jack and Zajnet as likely scum based on Jack’s Day 1 interaction with Jason and Zajnet’s horrible voting both days and his lack of contributions.
Based on the VC analysis I have the following thoughts –
Zajnet’s position on the wagons combined with other factors (Jason’s self hammering, etc) makes him a lynch-pin in determining scum via this style of analysis. I don’t think he can be scum with farside or Jack for the reasons mentioned above. If he is scum it goes a long way to clearing two more players and making a POE endgame viable. Also, Jason’s vote for him before joining the Charlie wagon at the end of Day 1 looks like distancing.
farside appears in more suspicious places based on my analysis than I would have expected given my read. I’ll have to re-ISO her with a fresh set of eyes.
Erg0 and Sando also appear multiple places of suspicion during both days. I’m going to review Sando’s ISO to look closely at his day 2 contributions. Erg0 will be assessed as he goes with my thumb on the scum side of the ledger as CDB / Ythan’s total lack of contribution to the game strike me as scumtastic.
VOTE: Zajnetfor the moment as the VC analysis doesn’t lessen my suspicion of his play.
"I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
Pretty much Geriatric game restricted at this point ... unless there are players I REALLY want to play with.
