Open 236 - Pamplona Mafia (C9++) Game Over

[yabbaguy]

misrep

You're misrepping me by saying that I'm misrepping you. How ironic.

Seriously, I'm calling it as I see it, you flipped between three stances in consecutive posts, and that's that. You can't use the word misrep unless you think that I'm doing it on purpose, somehow twisting the situation to look like something entirely different. Here, I'm calling it as I see it, you switched between three stances in consecutive posts (Beef/shotty/Dry-fit), and that's that.

@ yg, yes, of course i know that if ekim is scum, he knew drmy was town. The words 'informed minority' ring a bell?

Without trying to start a pointless squabble here, yes, that's what I'm trying to tell you. I'm trying to say that ekiM's usage of statistics is scummy because the fact of the matter is that his supposed gamble was wrong, and you have to factor into the issue whether or not he was scum-motivated to do so.

@Net: I'm putting chips on the fact that you didn't actually read my theory or are refusing to believe it stubbornly for whatever reason. I'm glad you're at least on board with the Prox-wagon, but actually read my Spy case on ekiM. It actually is a very plausible counter-explanation to Fonz's claim that ekiM had no motive to rip one Town wagon down for another. He KNEW Zajnet's claim. He KNEW Zajnet was going to save his ass and the Doctor would protect him, and he therefore didn't want to put up with that.

At this point, the Doctor does have limited usefulness, so I suppose we might as well proceed with the massclaim, seeing as I can't see any reason why we need the remaining powerroles intact. I'm presuming we all know what popcorn is?

[The Fonz]

Without trying to start a pointless squabble here, yes, that's what I'm trying to tell you. I'm trying to say that ekiM's usage of statistics is scummy because the fact of the matter is that his supposed gamble was wrong, and you have to factor into the issue whether or not he was scum-motivated to do so.

Right, and that is PRECISELY my point. Working out odds like that is something town are more likely to do than scum imho, and shifting from a player that could have been vig or doc to one that definitely isn't just isn't worth the effort for scum. Overnight, I thought that Zajnet was probably scum and ekim had done that to save him, but it makes a lot less sense with Zaj-town. Again, when someone sticks their neck out in such a way, but it ends up benefiting town (keeping Zaj hidden) I find it much more likely town-motivated.

You would have been aware at the time of the possibility that ekim was scum and knew full well that drmy wasn't, at the time. To bring it up now, again, it looks like you are scapegoating ekim for the mislynch- it looks like you are scum trying to mislynch him. By attacking ekim, you are distancing yourself from your own role in the lynch.

And the 'one hole' in your theory is the size of a planet. There is absolutely no way a scumgroup knowing Zaj was vig wouldn't have blocked him, and your conspiracy theory to get around this relies on piling one unlikely thing on top of another. If scum know who the vig is, they don't even WANT to kill him- they want to kill someone who might be doc, because the one person the doc can't protect is himself. Frankly, when someone comes up with a theory so intricate and relying on so many things to go exactly as you supposed, it always makes me wonder if that person has insider knowledge. I want to wait until after mc to elaborate on this.

Also, I'd like you to read day one of the just completed Newbie 986, if you believe that me trying to get people to comment on other people's arguments in early game, or me tunnelling, is a scumtell.

@ NL: Your claim that you wouldn't have killed Zaj because he was mislynch bait just underlines my point. That is true for

everyone,

but someone still killed him. Therefore scum must have had some reason to believe, even though he was mislynch bait, that he was a threat to them. The best explanation I can see for that is that you are part of the scumteam, and wanted him gone because he suspected you. I've played too many games to discount the possibility that scum will just kill whoever suspects them and then cry WIFOM when it's pointed out. The second most likely explanation is that other players may have accidentally dropped hints that they weren't the doc.

I want Yabba or Netlava first, but I am happy to popcorn from there.

[Nobody Special]

Votecount 3.03

Not voting: ekiM, Netlava, Prox, The Fonz, yabbaguy

With 5 alive, it is three to lynch.

Deadline is September 19.

I will have no internet access from this evening until Saturday morning. I am asking Vi to step in and provide votecounts while I'm gone.

[Nobody Special]

It has come to my attention that Vi will also be V/LA from Thursday through Monday.

Try not to burn the house down while I'm gone.

Should a lynch occur (I'm not holding my breath), talk amongst yourselves until Saturday morning (or, alternately, until Vi tells you it's Night and to stop posting).

[Vi]

It has come to my attention that Vi will also be V/LA from Thursday through Monday.

Try not to burn the house down while I'm gone.

Should a lynch occur (I'm not holding my breath), talk amongst yourselves until Saturday morning (or, alternately, until Vi tells you it's Night and to stop posting).

I'm Vi and I second the request to not burn the house down. If you do burn the house down, make sure there's no incriminating video footage.

[Prox]

You're misrepping me by saying that I'm misrepping you. How ironic.

Seriously, I'm calling it as I see it, you flipped between three stances in consecutive posts, and that's that. You can't use the word misrep unless you think that I'm doing it on purpose, somehow twisting the situation to look like something entirely different. Here, I'm calling it as I see it, you switched between three stances in consecutive posts (Beef/shotty/Dry-fit), and that's that.

Actually, I can use misrep in any situation where I feel I have been misrepresented, not just when done on purpose.

Mostly, all I did is shift my focus to those who needed it. It's not like I said "This guys is scum!" and then, "No this guy is scum", and then "Oh wait...this guy is scum!". Wishy-washy means that I'm incapable of making a firm decision. I wasn't even making decisions at that point, but instead investigating my leads.

[ekiM]

I've got a super important presentation to give tomorrow. I should have a lot more time available after that. Quickly:

yabba, three scenarios:

1) I'm town and believed my argument on dr.
2) I'm scum who didn't know Zaj was vig who redirected the wagon abruptly for some reason.
3) I'm mafia spy, knew Zaj was vig, and redirected the wagon so Zaj couldn't claim and save himself and get doc protection. We then decided not to block the vig (??), or our blocker got blocked.

I think we're discounting 2. Do you not see how 3 is pretty far fetched? Why are you so paranoid about the possibility of me being scum who knew dr was scum when the same possibility applies to every player who ever voted for a townie..?

[yabbaguy]

One pillar of my theory might actually be resolved/busted by the massclaim, so how about we fire up the Popcorn-O-Matic and see if that theory still stands?

I'm going V/LA soonish and I'm vanilla, so I'll claim first happily. ekiM next.

[ekiM]

Doctor. Netlava.

[The Fonz]

ekiM, night actions?

[ekiM]

Oh, duh. The Fonz N0 and N1 because I thought he was likely to be a target N0 for being "famous" and N1 for being unsuspected all day. N2 was between Fonz and yabba, again for being unsuspected, went with yabba because Fonz hadn't been targeted N0 or N1 so maybe he was scum or the spy found him to be vanilla.

[Nobody Special]

Votecount Three point oh four

Not voting: ekiM, Netlava, Prox, The Fonz, yabbaguy

With 5 alive, it is three to lynch.

Deadline is September 19.

I got some net a few hours earlier than I expected. Thank you for not burning the place down (not that I expected anything of the sort).

[Netlava]

I'm vanilla. Prox, next.

[Prox]

Vanilla, obv.

And...Fonz.

[The Fonz]

VT. So 2/3 of prox, nl, yg. I'm most confident on netlava. While i was waiting on prox, i re-read Netlava in mini love as town. Not at all lurky or opportunistic-looking there.

[yabbaguy]

Gah, I suck at this game. FWIW, sorry for wasting your time.

Quickly (again, I'm on vacation)- I'm still thinking Prox for the same reasons (which have not been discounted one bit the way I see it), but I should take into account that Netlava's hasty hammer with the rationale "Let's do this" of shotty could've sealed the game, and would've paid off handsomely (game win) as a scum opportunist move if Zajnet hadn't pegged Alduskkel.

Netlava/Prox is the pair I'm betting on, and I'm glad there's no scum meddling to be found. Have a look at how lurky Prox is, he's contributed absolutely nothing since this Day started, and I'm a bit angered that what I've been saying is not being registed (although like I said, the others aren't doing shit). Granted, my theories have been reduced to Certified 100% Bullshit Status, but Prox isn't making even a nominal effort to scumhunt. Netlava, same shtick.

[Prox]

I don't know what to do, sorry. I would attack not-Netlava, but it wouldn't be of much substance. I have no idea who other-scum might be, except that it is not me (or the claimed doc).

[The Fonz]

Prox, you are either legitimately the stupidest player ever to play mafia, or you're faking VIness, or you didn't think it through for more than a second. If netlava, yourself and ekim are all town, who do the TWO scum HAVE to be?

[Prox]

Netlava is scum.

[Prox]

*fights urge to call fonz an ass*

[Prox]

*breathes deeply*

I believe netlava is scum. Even remotely guessing who of the remaining 3 is scum is difficult for me. Not who of 2 players is part of a twoman scum team. Sorry for not being clear.

I apoligize for my unprecedented stupidity. However, it seems to go without saying that I don't need your help pointing it out.

Ass.

[The Fonz]

Why did you write that you'd attack 'Not netlava?'

[Netlava]

Ok, so ekim's not scum so... I'm not really sure who's scum now, so I'll need to look things over.

[yabbaguy]

Prox not weighing in on the ekim spy debate is another scumpoint I can add to his laundry list.

Basically, floundering scum. His stances are not clear, and I can't think of this being anything other than opportunism.

[The Fonz]

Thing is yg, floundering scum and flailing newbie VI look a lot alike, and if he's scum, then i can't believe he wouldn't have been coached just a little or given a talking point or two. Instead, he's got worse as the game wore on- see his comments on Ythan v al which at least show effort. Need to meta.