Mini 1009 ÔÇô Popularity mafia (Game over - Mafia wins)

[Johoohno]

Vote count Day 3

(8 players alive = 5 to lynch before deadline)

(4) Thief – Cuethlachtli, ZONEACE, Simenon, nopointinactingup
(1) ZONEACE – Thief
(1) Simenon – tumescence
(1) tumescence – scotmany12
(1) Cuethlachtli – Blackberry

Not voting: ---

Deadline Day 3 is September 15

[Cuetlachtli]

unvote

[Cuetlachtli]

@BB: I can't believe you went through all of my games, but failed to read my posts carefully and respond to questions I posed to you earlier today.

That said, I think we are in a 2:10 setup. Some argue that the Popularity aspect gives the town a slight advantage. I disagree. I find it unlikely that the a majority of the town and the scum would pick the same person at night. But given that all mods are different, there is a chance that Joh could be a bastard mod and we are, in fact, in a 3:9 setup.

Because, at most, two townies will not quit FoSing me, regardless of what I say, I don't think I should be around for any potential LYLO situation. As long as BB and Nopoint are alive, I am a liability to the town. Allow me to explain:

Key -

Town

Scum

Situation 1 - 2:10 in 3 way LYLO

Nopoint / BB

,

Cuet

,

Scum

Scum win cuz

Nopoint / BB

will vote to lynch me.

Situation 2 - 3:9 in 5 way LYLO

Nopoint

,

BB

,

Cuet

,

Scum1

,

Scum2

Scum win cuz

Nopoint

and

BB

will vote lynch me.

Situation 3 - 3:9 in 5 way LYLO

Nopoint

,

Cuet

,

Town3

,

BB

,

Scum2

Scum win cuz

Nopoint

will vote to lynch me.

Situation 4 - 3:9 in 5 way LYLO

BB

,

Cuet

,

Town3

,

Nopoint

,

Scum2

Scum win cuz

BB

will vote to lynch me.

Situation 5 - 3:9 in 5 way LYLO

Cuet

,

Town2

,

Town3

,

Nopoint

,

BB

Outcome to be determined.


That said, the odds are pretty much stacked against me if we RL wrong. I refuse to be a liability to the town going into potential 5 way LYLO.

vote: Cuetlachtli

[ZONEACE]

@BB: I can't believe you went through all of my games, but failed to read my posts carefully and respond to questions I posed to you earlier today.

That said, I think we are in a 2:10 setup. Some argue that the Popularity aspect gives the town a slight advantage. I disagree. I find it unlikely that the a majority of the town and the scum would pick the same person at night.

It's not a MAJORITY. The role PM says the person with the MOST nominations receives immunity.

[ZONEACE]

vote: Cuetlachtli

EBWOP

YOU UNVOTE THE BEST SCUM TARGET WE HAVE AND VOTE YOURSELF?????!!!!!1?????????????


ARE YOU FUCKING SERIOUS?

stop being stupid and wasting everyone's god damned time

[tumescence]

Cuet

, unvote yourself. Don't you see that lynching yourself as town creates even more trouble for town? It will draw suspicion to townies who incorrectly fosed you, like I believe BB and nopoint are doing.
Besides, BB and nopoint can still be convinced.

I've finally found something that will make me satisfied with my vote. The only other time Cuet has used the Rolling-Eye face icon was when he was scum.

We simply don't have enough evidence to assume that Cuet's rolling eye icon is associated with his being scum. Remember, loads of factors come in to play, like whether there was an opportunity to use the rolling-eye icon, whether Cuet was feeling emotionally rattled, etc. I know many people who use smileys in unpredictable manners, even as town.

BB, also consider this: I think Tazaro GENUINELY believed Cuet had gotten Night Kill immunity. As scum, you would naturally have to ponder over this question:

who is most likely to get night-immunity?

Tazaro, whether through discussion with his night-partner/s, or on his own, concluded that Cuet seemed most townie to him, and hence would get saved. I don't think such an artifice could be preplanned by Tazaro.
=======================

Typing up my analysis on Simenon.

[tumescence]

I don't expect a player of Simenon's caliber to explicitly scumslip. However, Simenon is far less townie than a cursory analysis would make it seem. There are 2 things that would give him the FALSE APPEARANCE of townieness:

(a) FOSing and voting Ironman d1: simply distancing. Very easy to do, and it shouldn't buy Simenon a single townpoint. People don't get lynched so early day 1.
(b) Building a case against Tazaro d2: Simenon's plan that day was: keep a vote on Tazaro, but allow Mothrax to get lynched. Mothrax already had 3 votes on him. Mothrax's bandwagon continued to gather momentum throughout the day, and

it seemed mothrax would get lynched

(notice that Simenon didn't really comment on Mothrax's lynch at all). The watershed moment that switched the bandwagon from Mothrax to Tazaro was precipitated by Mothrax himself, and was probably an unwelcome shock to Simenon.

Examining Simenon's comments more closely:

[Tazaro] buys into the BB's drunk posting, yet also equivocates ("alcohol can be a truth serum." Can be?)

A real stretch of a scumtell. Even a bit ironic, considering Simenon had himself said something like "Did it ever occur to anybody that he could be both scum and drunk?" (Could be?) But perhaps more importantly, although Tazaro was unclear on whether drunkenness always leads to sincerity, is that really important? Tazaro hadn't equivocated on whether Blackberry was scum! He had said just 2 posts previously: "I [am] willing to believe the intellectual honesty of the drunken mind displayed there."

Think about it: Simenon's overall response to Blackberry's drunkenness was more equivocal than Tazaro's response.

I was thinking that saying something is null get rid of that something as a tool that can be used to cast suspicion on a person that a mafia member wants to cast suspicion on.

1. Sometimes it's a good strategy for scum to defend townies.
2. If this were to become the meta, then it would benefit Cuet to violate the meta (this isn't WIFOM, in case anybody is wondering).

Cuet asked me to comment on this, but it doesn't really need commenting, imo. It just points out flaws in Tazaro's read on Cuet; it doesn't implicate Tazaro as any scummier.

Why isn't Tazaro dead? Existential questions for a new tomorrow.

.
Fluff, but also remember that at this point it seemed like Mothrax would be lynched.
==========================================

So: during the course of this game, Simenon has lynched a lurker, got into a few theoretical tussles, was on a scum lynch that he didn't really propel, and is currently fence-sitting on the Thief lynch. Nothing scummy, I'll admit, but as I said, I don't expect him to scumslip.

[nopointinactingup]

Okay, so now Cuet's acting like a defeatist. I find your speculation strange Cuet, you didn't mention the cases in which Nopoint/BB could be lynched/killed.
And this, ladies and gentleman, is a scum slip

I find it unlikely that the a majority of the town and the scum would pick the same person at night.

I can change my mind, but I'm certainly not buying any of this

Unvote:Vote:Cuet

[ZONEACE]

Okay, so now Cuet's acting like a defeatist. I find your speculation strange Cuet, you didn't mention the cases in which Nopoint/BB could be lynched/killed.
And this, ladies and gentleman, is a scum slip

I find it unlikely that the a majority of the town and the scum would pick the same person at night.

I can change my mind, but I'm certainly not buying any of this

Unvote:Vote:Cuet

THIS IS SCUMMY. Voting for Cuet after what he's said is VERY scummy.

[nopointinactingup]

It's obviously a gambit Zone. He slipped.

[scotmany12]

Okay, I'm drunk. But what the fuck just happened when I was away at work? Cuet, unvote yourself now.

[nopointinactingup]

Umm, Cuet wanted himself lynched because he thought he was a liability to town and he doesn't trust BB and mine flexibility. Then he scum slipped.

[tumescence]

And this, ladies and gentleman, is a scum slip

I find it unlikely that the a majority of the town and the scum would pick the same person at night.

How is it a scumslip? Because you're assuming that Cuet implied "a majority of ... the scum", implying 3 mafia? Have you considered that Cuet might simply have meant, "I find it unlikely that a majority of the town, and the scum would pick the same person at night"? You shouldn't assume Cuet meant a majority OF the scum.

I know you think my townreads are based on emotion, but what do you think about this part of my post?:

I think Tazaro GENUINELY believed Cuet had gotten Night Kill immunity. As scum, you would naturally have to ponder over this question: who is most likely to get night-immunity? Tazaro, whether through discussion with his night-partner/s, or on his own, concluded that Cuet seemed most townie to him, and hence would get saved. I don't think such an artifice could be preplanned by Tazaro.

[Blackberry]

3

Cuethlachtli ~ Very interesting interactions... Tazaro asks Cuet his opinions, Cuet plays it off and says do your own hunting (avoiding buddying?)...

4

ALSO Cuet's vote on Tazaro is different than his other accusations. When Cuet attacked nopoint, he made large arguments, when he votes Tazaro, he makes it short and simple, and it's different than his other votes and accusations

5

With all that, I am leaning towards Zoneace, or Cuet as the scum partner (although Tazaro commenting that Cuet got the NK immunity would be very odd, unless, he was trying to suggest Cuet is innocent via that way, it doesn't make a lot of sense to me unless they got to talk at night and Cuet told Tazaro he thought he'd get immunity - or Tazaro took the idea from someone else's post and exxagerated it to make it look like Cuet got immunity).

3.

You are reaching here. What would you have done different?

4.

My other arguments were larger because I was addressing more content. Do you have a problem with the actual content presented in my case against Taz?

5.

Maybe Taz deduced this after I suggested that people vote for who they think is scummy and no one voted for me.

(Answering your questions)

3: I, personally, would have given my reads and would have been happy that someone was following me. Although I would also be interested in how they respond. If they just completely 100% agreed with me, I'd be a little wary. If they took it into account as info, but then put in their own input, I would be excited that someone valued me opinion, and them putting their own opinion would have seemed to me that they weren't just latching on to someone. The way you responded and the way he asked looked to me like scum interaction and you being irritated with it.

4: I didn't say I had a problem with your content, you deflecting the question by asking something else strikes me as you admitting, yes, your accusation and reasoning was different than your other posts.

That said, I think we are in a 2:10 setup.

If this is true, and you genuinely believe that Thief or Zoneace are your top reads, then why in the WORLD would you unvote and vote yourself? You aren't making any logical sense. The only reason I could see you doing that is to make a big leap because you are fearful down the line that you will get lynched, so you might as well make a big, dramatic move now to confuse people and hopefully get someone on your side.

It, however, doesn't make any logical sense for you to be unvoting one of your top two suspects when you say you think there's only 1 mafia left.

Also, this dramatic voting of yourself seems to me that you are way overreating to only

two

people suspecting you. Or maybe you noticed the eye-rolling thing is correct and you're over-worried about that?

That said, the odds are pretty much stacked against me if we RL wrong. I refuse to be a liability to the town going into potential 5 way LYLO.

You think people are RLing? Aren't you voting for one of your top two suspects? How is that RLing? You just said you think there's likely only 2:10, which means only 1 mafia remaining. A lot of your speculation of "being a liability" contradicts the possibility that A) Thief is scum in your mind, which you claim to think and B) Assumes that you are confident the game won't be over once Thief is lynched, yet you claim to think Thief is scum.

POINTS & CASE:

* You are being way overdramatic by voting yourself, when just two people suspect you. This strikes me as over-paranoid scum. And considering there's likely only one scum left, he/she would have to do something to make sure they make it to the end.

* You are contradicting yourself by not sticking with your vote on Thief, while at the same time claiming you think there's only two mafia. If Thief is one of your top suspects, and you think there are only two mafia, and Thief is 1 vote away from a lynch, why would you change your vote? This makes no logical sense.

* Your play strikes me as strictly trying to make a big show to confuse people and call out people now to either be against you or with you because you're afraid you'll be next after Thief. And if people take your side now, you'll use it against them in the future. That is my theory.

[Blackberry]

And this, ladies and gentleman, is a scum slip

I find it unlikely that the a majority of the town and the scum would pick the same person at night.

How is it a scumslip? Because you're assuming that Cuet implied "a majority of ... the scum", implying 3 mafia? Have you considered that Cuet might simply have meant, "I find it unlikely that a majority of the town, and the scum would pick the same person at night"? You shouldn't assume Cuet meant a majority OF the scum.

I don't understand this as being a scumslip. I do think Cuet logicslipped. If he is a townperson that genuiney thought Thief was the last mafia, why unvote him? The only explanation: Cuet is mafia and is making a gambit.

I know you think my townreads are based on emotion, but what do you think about this part of my post?

Just my personal thought: I think tune's using of reading off of "emotion" (not really emotion, feeling is intuitiveish/empathy, emotion is another word, but anyways)- I find it makes me think tune is even more town.

[Blackberry]

We simply don't have enough evidence to assume that Cuet's rolling eye icon is associated with his being scum. Remember, loads of factors come in to play, like

whether there was an opportunity to use the rolling-eye icon

, whether Cuet was feeling emotionally rattled, etc. I know many people who use smileys in unpredictable manners, even as town.

This got me thinking because I specifically remembered Cuet getting killed NIGHT ONE in two or three games (aka, if he wasn't accused of being scum, he wouldn't have the ability to eyeroll). I went back. One game he got to endgame but it was apparently up to him to decide who got lynched, so no one was accusing him. One game before he was killed at Night one, he WAS put at L-1 and didn't do the eyerolling thing (townie in this game).

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 50&t=12563 ~That is his game as scum, and he eyerolls at the people accusing him.

The eye-rolling thing was just a small nudge to make me more confident. Thief and Zoneace had done things that made me second-guess myself and seemed like small town tells. Cuet hadn't done anything that made me think a small-town tell (until I just read something right now... about him claiming he thinks I town-slipped, doesn't seem like a scum thing to say).

Also, I remember my drunk post, and saying Cuet and Tazaro were mafia and saying check next to each of them. Not great evidence, but once again Cuet overreacts to an accusation.

At this point, Cuet's reaction of self-voting makes no logical sense to me. This action sticks out to me more than anything else now and I am confident in my vote.

[ZONEACE]

It's obviously a gambit Zone. He slipped.

That may well be, but THE ONLY reason to pull a gambit like that, at this time, is to attempt to save another scum that is more powerful than you. MEANING WE SHOULD STILL LYNCH THIEF.

If Cuet is town, lynching him is bad because he's town, and we need town people.

If Cuet is scum, he's trying to draw attention away from a more powerful scum target (and the only person in danger right now is thief)

Thief is still the lynch.

[nopointinactingup]

That said, I think we are in a 2:10 setup. Some argue that the Popularity aspect gives the town a slight advantage. I disagree. I find it unlikely that the a majority of the town and

the scum

would pick the same person at night. But given that all mods are different, there is a chance that Joh could be a bastard mod and we are, in fact, in a 3:9 setup.

1> He mentions that the scum has the ability to nominate Night Kill Immune though nowhere do I see that in the Role PM.
2> He seems to think that it takes "the majority" ( more than half ) to successfully nominate a person. Whereas if he has read the role PM, he would have been sure the nominated is at "most" votes. An actual case of 2 people with most votes is even elaborated in the Role PM. So why does he still think it takes the "majority" to have someone Night Killed Immune?
The evidence are clear. Either Thief or Zone is probably Cuet's partner in crime if we are in a 3 scum Set-Up.

[ZONEACE]

The evidence are clear. Either Thief or Zone is probably Cuet's partner in crime if we are in a 3 scum Set-Up.

Excuse me? where the hell did I suddenly become a suspect as being cuet's partner?

How hard is this for you to understand?

Thief is still the lynch.

If he flip scum and the game isn't over then the next day we take out BB or Cuet, and if we're wrong we lynch the other the next day. No matter how many scum are left, 1 or 2, they're located in the group of Thief, BB and Cuet.

If Cuet flips town, then we lynch cuet tomorrow and it's game over because if thief isn't scum, there aren't 3 scum in this game.

[nopointinactingup]

It's obviously a gambit Zone. He slipped.

That may well be, but THE ONLY reason to pull a gambit like that, at this time, is to attempt to save another scum that is more powerful than you. MEANING WE SHOULD STILL LYNCH THIEF.

If Cuet is town, lynching him is bad because he's town, and we need town people.

If Cuet is scum, he's trying to draw attention away from a more powerful scum target (and the only person in danger right now is thief)

Thief is still the lynch.

I'm not so sure about that. The Thief wagon, though at L-1 was at a standstill and a lot of people are not willing to lynch Thief. And Cuet was Thief's first pusher so I don't see a scum-scum in them. It could be a gambit, but I'm still more comfortable with a Cuet lynch. Tell you what, I'm going back with my old resolution. Lynch either Cuet or Thief. I'm poised to hammer the first to reach L-1.

Unvote

The evidence are clear. Either Thief or Zone is probably Cuet's partner in crime if we are in a 3 scum Set-Up.

Excuse me? where the hell did I suddenly become a suspect as being cuet's partner?

Because despite you realizing his slip, you were still trying to defend him.

[tumescence]

1> He mentions that the scum has the ability to nominate Night Kill Immune though nowhere do I see that in the Role PM.
2> He seems to think that it takes "the majority" ( more than half ) to successfully nominate a person. Whereas if he has read the role PM, he would have been sure the nominated is at "most" votes. An actual case of 2 people with most votes is even elaborated in the Role PM. So why does he still think it takes the "majority" to have someone Night Killed Immune?
The evidence are clear. Either Thief or Zone is probably Cuet's partner in crime if we are in a 3 scum Set-Up.

1> You misread what Cuet meant. Cuet's exact words are: "I find it unlikely that the a majority of the town and the scum would pick the same person at night." When I read this, I took it to mean that it's unlikely that the town would PICK someone for NK Immunity and that the scum would PICK the same person to kill. Cuet meant that it's unlikely that both teams will PICK the same person in their night-actions, which would result in save.

2> See Cuet ISO post 22 Cuet obviously knew all about and had access to the town role PM, irrelevant of whether he's scum or town. His error about the Immunity mechanics doesn't stem from his alignment, so much as a simple mis-comprehension.
=====================

@Blackberry:

Here are Cuet's towntells that I have not written about yet; hopefully some of them sound true:
Cuet ISO #14: huge list of scumreads. Cuet seems paranoid town.
ISO #24: "About Korts: So I was thinking, since we are in a mountainous setup, I find it hard to believe that scum-Korts would act so recklessly on Day 1. That is why I am going to drop my FOS of him for now." Cuet modifies his fos in light of new info about the number of scum. It means Cuet had been genuinely scumhunting on the assumption of 3 mafia.
ISO #51: "I purposely wrote "Nopoint and Sim's case on Iron Man" in Cuet ISO 46 because if Taz flipped town, I was going to push hard today on the Nopoint / Sim scum theory." Betrays his ignorance about Iron's man alignment. Scum doesn't think this way.
ISO #62 (Cuet's latest defeatist post): You think Cuet is acting defeatist to garner enough support so he will survive the later days. Nice theory, but have you actually seen such ploys in action? The site I play mafia at, has many people like Cuet. They often get frustrated and do things like self-voting, even when it makes 0 rational sense. I'm not exaggerating when I say I have seen behavior similar to Cuet's dozens of times. Cuet's defeatism seems sincere.

Cuet's vote on Tazaro is different than his other accusations. When Cuet attacked nopoint, he made large arguments, when he votes Tazaro, he makes it short and simple, and it's different than his other votes and accusations

Something else I noticed: Cuet's case against Tazaro was copying the STYLE of Mothrax's case. This change in style, coupled with lesser content and Cuet's uncertainty about whether Tazaro was scum (see the above-quoted excerpt from ISO#51), can account for Cuet's post being "short and simple".

[nopointinactingup]

Okay, 1> maybe my own misunderstanding, but 2> definitely still applies.

My experience with defeatist is very recent actually
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... &start=650
Herotodus was being a defeatist at post 656, 667. At post 682, he succeeded in gloating me into thinking it's sincere.

[Simenon]

Even a bit ironic, considering Simenon had himself said something like "Did it ever occur to anybody that he could be both scum and drunk?" (Could be?)

uh, that question was rhetorical.
My stance was clear: alcohol has no bearing on a person's alignment. Point out the fence sitting.

But perhaps more importantly, although Tazaro was unclear on whether drunkenness always leads to sincerity, is that really important? Tazaro hadn't equivocated on whether Blackberry was scum! He had said just 2 posts previously: "I [am] willing to believe the intellectual honesty of the drunken mind displayed there."

He posted that before anybody challenged him!
The equivocation happened

after

he took a stance (obviously). In the post you've quoted, he definitively says BB is town. Later, he says we should wait until he sobers up, then he could be town, because alcohol *can be* a truth serum. How is that not an equivocation?

So: during the course of this game, Simenon has lynched a lurker, got into a few theoretical tussles, was on a scum lynch that he didn't really propel, and is currently fence-sitting on the Thief lynch. Nothing scummy, I'll admit, but as I said, I don't expect him to scumslip.

I don't see why you would try to undermine your own case like this. The only rational explanation is that you knew it would be weak, and were trying to lower expectations.
Also, how is it fair that I've "lynched a lurker" all by my onesies, but get no credit for the Taz lynch? All I did on Day Two was back the Taz lynch! mothrax hasn't interested me since my first vote.
I'll give you Thief. I don't have a clear picture of his alignment yet. I'm waiting to see how he responds to my questions.
And I don't remember "FoSing" Iron Man. I have a policy against FoSes, but I'll let you prove me wrong on that one.

[ZONEACE]

Because despite you realizing his slip, you were still trying to defend him.

Um I wasn't defending him. If you'll go back and look you'll see what I said, and that was that voting him at that time was scummy. He jumped WAY up my scum list, but is still only number 3 (behind thief and BB, and like I said, if thief is town then he becomes number 1)

[tumescence]

I'll post by tomorrow.