Last Will Mafia II (Over)

[animorpherv1]

W00t! Third party cult wins!

unvote, vote Battousai

Vote Battousai

[Battousai]

In between classes, so just a quick post for right now...

ani, wtf? Give me a

good

reason why you think I should be lynched for saying that and why you are focusing in on that instead of even acknowledging the result from yesterday's lynch.

[Amished]

Not quite what I was expecting

In regards to... what?

[Jahudo]

@Jahudo: Which points are you mostly confused with? Or which ones do you feel aren't scumtells?

The things I don't understand / don't see them as tells are:

-How SSBF said to look for scum on the EGL wagon even though he had been on that wagon too. I don't think its hypocritical because there probably were scum on the wagon but its not his job to talk about his own actions if he's not under attack.

-How he speculated on multiple killing factions the night of the Ythan/Richard fiasco. It doesn't look like a slip of inside information because its just a common element in large games and safe to speculate about.

-How SSBF's scum meta is to overexplain his votes, or how he's doing that in this game. With a limited memory of some past games and what I've seen here, I don't know how he's overexplaining to justify a lack of honesty, or however this tell would help scum.

-How he went about analyzing the Shattered Viewpoint wagon. He initially leaves out some of the bandwagoners but later explains why he did that for KMD, for instance, and I don't see what's wrong with not explaining his town reads thoroughly. He picked some scum reads from the wagon, explained them, and that seems enough.

-How Diacra getting NK'ed makes SSBF a likely killer. Yes Diacra was suspicious of SSBF but it could also be a red herring or just a coincidence.

-How SSBF argued for a beloved princess lynch. Its a bad strategy and anyone should know that. Scum could easily take a cautious approach so as not to attract attention and get into debates.

I do understand a few of your points however. Like how SSBF was selective with those OMGUS attacks, or selective with how he treated people's town lists.

[Xite91]

Vote: Xite91

I don't like how hard she attacked Richard D2, only to flip and call him "confirmed town" on D3 based on faulty reasoning. I think she was just scum trying to get town cred by staying off the lynch of a PR. Also, I hate how she's been using a case on SSBF she's made 20 pages ago to continue to push through a lynch.

First, I said I'm "more inclined to believe ythan's town atm" not that he's confirmed town. But considering the way richard flipped, I at least know he's not lying, he was the one that nk'd millar. I'm going to leave him be for now and if he becomes scummier in my eyes I'll go after him, but my case around him fell mostly apart when richard flipped VT

Second, I gave my reasons for richard like 87986876587687568 times, so I'm not going to again. Read the thread

Third, yes it's partly based on the case 20 pages back, but it's also based on the points myself and others have been making on him ever since. Honestly, I can't be bothered to make a case every page, and with the way I post, I'm sure the rest of the players here would also like me to refrain from doing so.

Good morning.

----------

Xite, why is ythan town?

Mornin.
I said inclined to believe, not is. Gave my reasons above.

Erm ok. From memory, I think Kmd is town at the very least. Mafia is probably Nacho. Of this I'm willing to bet 1 lunch.
Not quite the answer but let me think about it ok?

Nach is town. Trust me on this one

1) -How SSBF said to look for scum on the EGL wagon even though he had been on that wagon too. I don't think its hypocritical because there probably were scum on the wagon but its not his job to talk about his own actions if he's not under attack.

2) -How he went about analyzing the Shattered Viewpoint wagon. He initially leaves out some of the bandwagoners but later explains why he did that for KMD, for instance, and I don't see what's wrong with not explaining his town reads thoroughly. He picked some scum reads from the wagon, explained them, and that seems enough.

3) -How SSBF argued for a beloved princess lynch. Its a bad strategy and anyone should know that. Scum could easily take a cautious approach so as not to attract attention and get into debates.

The others I'll let others explain, or I agree that they're not scumtells. (also I can't answer the one about meta because I don't know)

1) He was never on the EGL wagon. He said he could get behind it, but never voted (fence-sitting) then he said that he thinks there's scum on the wagon.
2) It was that he said to look at the last 5 on the wagon, but then said, "Oh, these guys I think are town, so it's these two that are scum" Also that one was more to point out to him that scum can be ANYWHERE on a wagon, and his insistence that scum must be on the last 5 is silly.
3) The way he did it, he waited to vote. Instead he just pushed and pushed then dropped it when he didn't get any support. I'm willing to venture a guess that if he were to get support for it, he would vote (remember what I said about throwing spaghetti?)

[animorpherv1]

In between classes, so just a quick post for right now...

ani, wtf? Give me a

good

reason why you think I should be lynched for saying that and why you are focusing in on that instead of even acknowledging the result from yesterday's lynch.

Why not lynch a cult claim? Cults = bad for town. And I didn't acknowledge Richard's flip because I sort of consider it obvious that Ythan is prob. town.

[Rhinox]

vote: animorpherv

So, you seriously think batt is claiming cult? And that is the best thing to talk about today, as well as override all discussion to become lynchworthy at the end of the day yesterday?

[animorpherv1]

Well, why would he fake cult? It makes no sense to do, IMHO, and is a scummy thing to do.

[Kmd4390]

Xite, no. The fact that ythan killed millar does NOT make him town. The kill was the result of an invention given to him by twomz. He could have used it regardless of alignment. The millar kill says absolutely NOTHING about ythan's alignment.

------

Animorph, batt was recruited on night 4. I'm the cult recruiter. Why waste time lynching one of my recruits?

[animorpherv1]

ITT I'm not an Idiot. I't's Day Four, kmd.

[Xite91]

Xite, no. The fact that ythan killed millar does NOT make him town. The kill was the result of an invention given to him by twomz. He could have used it regardless of alignment. The millar kill says absolutely NOTHING about ythan's alignment.

I'm not saying that him having killed millar makes him town, I'm saying that my case was on the assumption that Ythan was lying to gt richard lynched. As I said, he looks more town to me ATM. This could change later, but I'm less inclined to believe he's scum right now.

ITT I'm not an Idiot. I't's Day Four, kmd.

You're kind of proving that you are ani. He was trying to point out that it was a joke by furthering the joke. If you're going to vote batt, then vote him based on the scummy things he did, not the obv jokeclaim

[Kmd4390]

I almost want to sig something from animorph in this game, but I'm not sure what.

vote xite x2

[Jahudo]

@animorph: Do you think Batt is cult that was serious about thinking he had won? What kind of a cult can win this early? That alone should indicate he was joking. He could still be cult just on random chance, but no way would he think it was safe to claim.

Hey xite, can you re-summarize your SSBF case points? Or do you have a post for that already?

1) He was never on the EGL wagon. He said he could get behind it, but never voted (fence-sitting) then he said that he thinks there's scum on the wagon.

Doh, I got my wagons mixed up. I meant it didn't seem hypocritical for him to be on the Shattered Viewpoint wagon but also think it had scum on it.

On the subject of his EGL suspicion, it seems normal he wouldn't vote since he had been focused on finding scum from his Shattered Viewpoint wagon list.

And he was on the rival Richard wagon at the time and it was slightly larger. Deadline was two days from when SSBF started talking about EGL. Why would he help a rival wagon if the best thing for him would be to maintain the status quo and let either top townie wagon happen naturally?

2) It was that he said to look at the last 5 on the wagon, but then said, "Oh, these guys I think are town, so it's these two that are scum" Also that one was more to point out to him that scum can be ANYWHERE on a wagon, and his insistence that scum must be on the last 5 is silly.

I'm not seeing it that way. He was already suspicious of those people at the end of the Shattered Viewpoint wagon (Chrono, Richard, CSL) so it makes sense he'd decide to look at them. And he explained why Twomz was more townish, so it doesn't read like PoE that you imply.

And he did not insist scum were in the last 5, he merely suggested it. Where do you see it the other way?

3) The way he did it, he waited to vote. Instead he just pushed and pushed then dropped it when he didn't get any support. I'm willing to venture a guess that if he were to get support for it, he would vote (remember what I said about throwing spaghetti?)

I don't recall him pushing that much. I can find one post and then another where he acknowledges a vig can take care of millar being a better plan. It seems that was what caused him to back down. Anyway I still don't see how scum would take this unnecessary risk of arguing for a anti-town strategy.

[esuriospiritus]

Currently caught up to page 34.

Bandwagon analysis time!

raider8169 (5)
CSL (5)
RichardGHP (5)
Shattered Viewpoint (4)

At this point in day one, the lynch could have been anyone. Three of these people are dead and flipped town, which means:

1.) Raider/Plum slot is scum

-OR-

2.) Everyone being bandwagoned here is town, and scum were sitting back and laughing, in which case there is scum in this group of people:

Slots with less than 4 posts in the last 4 RL days of day 1

(out of the people left alive now, for what I hope are obvious reasons)

animorpherv1 (2 posts)

chronopie (3 posts)

Jahudo (0 posts)
Locke Lamora (0 posts)
Nachomamma8 (0 posts)

SSBF (3 posts)
Ythan (3 posts)

I am not including myself in that list even though Magua posted only twice, because I know I'm town. Chevre (Jahudo's predecessor) requested replacement within those last four days, and that was the only post that slot made during that time so I didn't count it. Locke Lamora's slot didn't have any posts from some time in June to July 20th - day one lynch was on July 14th. I started counting posts from the first post dated July 10th, 2010 in my time zone; if you live elsewhere, your results may vary slightly.

Cross-referencing this list with the final SV wagon, which I am relatively certain was scum-driven, we have... Ythan, SSBF, and animorpherv1.

Shattered Viewpoint (12) -

Ythan

,

EGL

,

Magua

,

Super Smash Bros. Fan

, Amished, Charlie, kmd4390, holycon,

towmz

,

animorpherv1

, pittbunny,

millar13

Now, again, I'm not fully caught up still, but to me it still seems more likely that raider/Plum is scum than Ythan/SSBF/ani are scum. I still advocate a Raider-slot lynch barring fantabulous play from Plum when I get caught up to whatever point she replaces in at. If raider-slot is town, out of those three people I'd be most suspicious of Ani for his late placement on the SV wagon (followed by SSBF, for having major text walls pushing the SV wagon). Out of the more general list of people who were lurking near the end of Day 1, Nachomamma is naturally the most suspicious for not posting AT ALL during that time and not having the excuse of a pending replacement.

For those of you who

are

caught up all the way, I figured I'd post this to see if you make anything different out of it than I do.

[esuriospiritus]

EBWOP: Durr hurr, forgot to vote:

Vote: Plum

[animorpherv1]

eusrio:

I do't think that amount of posts is going to be a good indicator, consider in last Last Will Game, scum didn't have daytalk.

[Super Smash Bros. Fan]

@animorpherv1: Your case on Battousai is downright absymal. Your only reason is that he jokingly claimed that third-party cult won, which was clearly

not

a serious statement in any shape or form. Yet you think this is enough to justify a vote on him. How is him jokingly claiming that an anti-town faction won is by any stretch a scum tell? And this isn't a good reason either. Also, that exact same post is a deflection from Rhinox's #1656. You didn't even answer Rhinox's questions, instead asked why would a person fake being a cult. These things are so scummy, it's enough to warrant a

Vote: animorpherv1

---

Well I think he is confirmed town. At the very least, he was responsible for the death of millar13.

How is Ythan confirmed town? Yes he was responsible for killing millar13, but a death of a townie is not an indication of alignment.

---

For those of you who are caught up all the way, I figured I'd post this to see if you make anything different out of it than I do.

Regarding your argument for how I'm one of the three most likely scums if Plum flips town, I do not see how me having major wall of texts pushing the Shattered Viewpoint wagon is consider to be scummy from your perspective. Furthermore, my attack on Shattered Viewpoint when I was voting him were not "major wall of texts". Were they decently-sized, yes, but not major wall of texts.

[Ythan]

I don't really have anything to add at the moment. I need to redo isos. Sorry but this game is just less interesting than that other one I'm in and my time is limited.

[Battousai]

My "claim" was a joke meant towards the players who were hesitant in hammering and on my insistance that someone hammer at the end of the day. Nothing more. I even go and say I will explain something tomorrow (I'm on slow/unrelable internet right now, so will have to wait till Monday). If I thought I won, why would I continue the charade that there is going to be a tomorrow?

Also, to the people voting ani... is he being opportunistic or is he just acting noobish? Would scum-ani try and get an opportunistic lynch on me instead of someone else (ie SSBF who was the second leading wagon at the end of yesterday)?

Esurio- I still find that raider's playstyle was scummy, using his voting style to mask any scummy actions he would do (pay attention to one hand, and ignore the other). Plum's actions yesterday/today has done nothing to swade that (she has pretty much stayed out of the light).

[esuriospiritus]

I do't think that amount of posts is going to be a good indicator, consider in last Last Will Game, scum didn't have daytalk.

I don't see the relevance. If scum was aware that there was no risk of one of them getting lynched, wouldn't at least some of them see fit to sit back and lurk to the end of the day, regardless of whether or not they have daytalk? I would bet my avatar (since that seems to be the popular thing to do) on there being two scum in the more general list, maybe even three, if Plum is town. I'd bet the same regarding the SV wagon, regardless of Plum's alignment. In that case, it makes sense to cross-reference the two and see where the lists intersect, no?

The analysis is far less relevant if Plum is scum, but I wanted to cover all bases since I'm not caught up yet and am not yet equipped to make a final judgement on anyone.

Furthermore, my attack on Shattered Viewpoint when I was voting him were not "major wall of texts". Were they decently-sized, yes, but not major wall of texts.

You're refuting the semantics of one sentence rather than the post in general? What do you think about the rest of what I posted?

As for how it's scummy: You supported a townie wagon (null on its own without context), but more importantly you spent a lot of

time and energy

supporting it relative to some. Now that I think about it in this light, it's probably more of a point against you if Plum flips scum -- scum!SSBF would have more of a motivation to push an SV lynch than town!SSBF would. Hmm.

[Ythan]

Batt's using the old "scum wouldn't act scummy" argument.

[animorpherv1]

Ah, I misunderstood. I thought that you thought they weren't talking for an outside reason other than lurking.

[Charlie]

Time to give proper answers. Reference: my own iso #94 and 85.

Two Town reads:

MichelSablehart

, kmd4390, Xite91,

SSBF

Two Scum reads: Nachomamma8, Plum

Look, I'd recommend you people to go back and read MichelSablehart in iso. All of them (Iso #4 caught my eye). He had a lot of good thing in his posts and I'm willing to go as far as to say that he was Nk-ed for his pro-town contrubitions, not because he was a suspected PR. He's right when he said this town is bumming too much.

His suspects iso #4: SSBF, esuriospiritus replacing Magua, Kmd4390, Charlie
His first impression suspects, iso #0: Battousai replacing Pittbunny,

RichardGHP

, Super Smash Bros. Fan and Charlie

Based on this, I can sheep his suspicion on SSBF, esuriospiritus and Battousai. I bet 1 dinner that there is at least one mafioso in these three jokers.

-----------

Based on the recent posts, I can see how Ythan is still a suspect because he may be mafia aligned but given an extra shot by means of the inventor. But I do not think that is the case.

Xite91, you said Nacho is town. How sure are you of this?

I can read Jahudo's #1662 without feeling distracted! I think the diffrent picture of the red panda helped. Unfortunately I didn't really like the way that post was constructed (as compared to...)

... esuriospiritus's #1663. This feels like a real catch-up post with no strings attatched. Content heavy (which is good) too.

Suspects: Ythan, Super Smash Bros. Fan, animorpherv1
I'll look at these 3 again.

-----------

Finalized suspects list: Nachomamma8, Plum, animorpherv1, SSBF, esuriospiritus, Battousai

[Ythan]

I might suddenly have more time for this game!

[Charlie]

Yay!