Good Omens Mafia! Game Over.

[Mr. Flay]

Also (and to avoid the "No posts in this topic" bug), I'll try to go through and figure out who can and can't be Hastur based on replacement times... I suggest all other townies do the same, so we can compare notes tomorrow.

[al_kohaulec]

I'd also like to hear what Esme's ability is. I know it won't help me, but it could help the town figure out who he is.

As for me, I've been trying to be as helpful as I can. It's just kind of hard when so much has happened before I've been here, and I never even read the book. My help has been much better recently (though after today, won't be good any more) because I finished reading the book during the last night, and I also reviewed most of the main parts of the thread. It had nothing to do with how much heat I was attracting, just simply what I knew.

Confirmation of my innocence won't mean much since I'm going to be dead soon.

[non-game related]
Also, this is totally unrelated to the game, just so you guys know, but earlier I started making a joke, and decided against it so you wouldn't get the wrong idea. It was when I predicted that everybody would lynch me, and I was saying something like:

"Hey, I predicted this whole thing. I must be Agnes Nutter!"
Of course, the joke sounds lame now because I can't remember exactly how I was going to put it, and it's way too late to sound good .
[non-game related]

[al_kohaulec]

Also (and to avoid the "No posts in this topic" bug), I'll try to go through and figure out who can and can't be Hastur based on replacement times... I suggest all other townies do the same, so we can compare notes tomorrow.

For the most part it's down to you and Esme.

[esme]

I'd also like to hear what Esme's ability is. I know it won't help me, but it could help the town figure out who he is.

I'm female and I consider it extremely poor strategy to talk about abilities after the lynch and before the night.

[al_kohaulec]

*she* sorry about that.

And I don't care if you do it tomorrow, I just think we're at the point where we should find out this information.

[Dragon Slayer]

Al_Kohaulec, Tibetan, was lynched day 8.

It is now Night 9, choices.

[Dragon Slayer]

I haven't forgotten about you guys- soccer got into post season (just ended) and now I have midterms. I think I'll have Polotet make an appearance to break day.

[Polotet]

Blonde Anchorwoman: We're back on the air! You make one little itty bitty mistake of forgetting to do a show and you get pulled off, its ridiculous. Luckily, we were able to convince the producers our show provides an important service to the community. Or something like that.

And now to Nondescript Reporter, with the news of the night.

*Nondescript Reporter is standing in front of a pile of ashes.*

Nondescript Reporter: Yes, I'm at the scene with an eyewitness. This is the home of well-known and respected Tadsfield citizen Fritzler. What did you see last night, sir?

Shocked Eyewitness: I was walking my dog, when a man stepped out of the shadows in front of Fritzler's house. I hid in the bushes, because of all the violence that's been going on lately, as the man began to recite some kind of chant while holding the doorknob. At first, it seemed like whatever he was trying to do wasn't working, and then he stepped back in frustration and started another chant. I could tell just from the sound of it that this one was something really nasty, and all of a sudden a piece of Fritzler's roof lit on fire. As the man continued chanting, the fire quickly spread to the rest of the house. Then, a brilliant white light came streaming out of Fritzler's windows. The man who had been chanting screamed and sprinted away as the Light began poking holes in the burning walls of the house. Within in a minute, between the fire from outside and the Light from inside the house was completely destroyed, and as the final pieces of the walls fell in the Light gathered and sped out into the sky.

Nondescript Reporter: Thank you, sir. I've consulted our "Mysterious Light Expert" and he's pretty sure that the only valid explanation is that Fritzler was God's avatar on Earth and when attacked he returned to Heaven. Back to you, Blonde Anchorwoman.

Blonde Anchorwoman: Thanks, Nondescript. We're now down to only 5 people left in town, so only 3 need to be in agreement for a lynch.

Fritzler, God, was incinerated Night 9.

It is now Day 9, 3 to lynch.

[Fritzler]

Pffft. I waited, and waited for this to open, and now I'm dead. good luck guys.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Flay's innocent.

Between Esme/Fuldu methinks.

[esme]

No, Fuldu was one of the Them Masons.

I am a vanilla townie. Therefore, either Pooky is lying or we have a godfather or a mafia recruited after being investigated left.

I have put Pooky's result below. The results on mith and Peachy make it unlikely that Pooky is just inventing things. I don't like Hastur being Godfather at all, maybe Sister Mary, but it's hard to see her burning people on her own. Given the quick lynches on the two previous day, I want to explicitly ask you to go slow with today's lynch, so I have a chance to discuss this, because I have to reread a couple of things. The worst-case scenario would be Hastur AND Sister Mary left. (If the Delivery Man is not pro-town, I find it hard to believe that he could kill on his own.)

...
Remaining Roles:
Hastur
Thou-Shalt-Not-Commit-Adultery Pulsifer
Agnes Nutter
Sister Mary Loquacious
A Delivery Man
Wensleydale
Alien

...
Remaining Players:
Mneme (Seol (Nanook)) inno by Pooky
Mr. Flay (Flying Dutchman) inno by Pooky
Esme (replaces JDTAY)
Fuldu II (replaces DoomCow) - Them (masons with Dog)
PookyTheMagicalBear cop

...
N1: dead innocent
N2: mith guilty, takes back as vibes
N3: Peachy guilty
N4: Roland good
N5: Forgot to send in a choice
N6: Thoth innocent after Thoth is modkilled
N7: Fritzler innocent (told on D8)
N8: Mneme innocent
N9: Flay innocent

[Mr. Flay]

I suppose Mafia Cop is a possibility, but that would mean we have two scum left, and therefore lynch-or-lose, right? Or do Mafia Spies count toward win conditions, usually? Unfortunately, she's the only one I can see getting an 'innocent' result by a cop, as Hastur is probably cut-and-dried, even for a Witchfinder...

The Delivery Man

may

have an independent win condition, something like find all the horsemen or something, would be the only possibility there. But... Pooky, are you still getting straight good vibes/bad vibes on everyone?

I'm leaning toward esme as the default answer today (from my POV), but I suppose something could be fishy with Mneme or Pooky. How do you propose to discover that though, esme, without throwing the game away (no lynch is not an option if we're at Lynch-or-Lose)?

It goes without saying that for the same reasons, ANY roleclaim slipups (modkills) could destroy us as well. Let's proceed cautiously.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Hmm you're right, I can see Sister Mary as having some sort of immunity from investigation.

This is going to have to be a little more difficult than I thought, I'll do another reread.

I hope you guys do the same.

[Fuldu]

Mafia cop or recruitable scum generally only count toward the win condition if the "official" scum know who that player is. If Hastur doesn't know who Sister Mary is (in the scenario we've posited) then he's just as likely to vote for her lynch in a situation in which the scum outnumber the town as for anybody else. That shouldn't be a winning situation, but the mod might see it differently.

Of course, if they know who one another are, then that's pretty much moot.

As for role-type claims, we have:

esme - townie
Fuldu - mason
mneme - unclaimed, that I can find
Mr. Flay - townie
Pooky - cop

I'd like to have mneme fill in that remaining blank.

[mneme]

Fudlu: townie.

I'm leaning toward eme.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Fudlu, hehe

that's a funny sounding name.

I'm gonna have to call Fuldu that from now on

Fudlu... I'm still giggling

[Fuldu]

Okay, so here's the list of remaining roles:

Hastur
Thou-Shalt-Not-Commit-Adultery Pulsifer
Agnes Nutter
Sister Mary Loquacious
A Delivery Man
Wensleydale
Alien

Of those seven, two aren't in this game. Also, I only see two that, if in the game, I would consider likely to be plain townies, A Delivery Man and Alien. If you go back over the posts of the three players who've claimed townie (and I still have to check who mneme replaced and look there, as well) the Delivery Man has been a topic of great discussion and speculation. esme has been pushing the idea that the Delivery Man might be scum. Mr. Flay has mentioned that the Delivery Man might have a separate win condition. Neither of those things are likely to be said by a plain townie who is the Delivery Man. That leads me to believe that there's a good chance mneme is telling the truth and that one or the other of Mr. Flay and esme is lying.

I see four possibilities:

1) esme is the only remaining scum. Pooky has innocent results on the other two and I am cleared through association. So if Pooky is telling the truth and there aren't GF issues to deal with, esme must be our scum.

2) Mr. Flay is the only remaining scum. This requires that Hastur have investigative immunity which, frankly, doesn't make a lot of sense to me, but it's possible.

3) two of the three claimed townies are scum. In this case, one of the two missing roles is one of the two townie roles (probably the Delivery Man) and either Hastur or Sister Mary has investigative protection. I'd assume Sister Mary, because of the implicit way Pooky's "vibes" seem to work based on mith. However, since I think it's extremely unlikely that they both have investigative immunity, esme's still scum.

4) Pooky is Sister Mary Loquacious, mafia cop. This is the problem scenario. In this case, mneme is still likely to be the Delivery Man, so Hastur is either esme or Mr. Flay. Offhand, it's more likely to be Mr. Flay, since Pooky has to realize that he's set up esme to probably be lynched today and it would be an awfully ballsy tactic to do that as a WIFOM. This scenario also explains how Pooky has survived this long.

I have some more thoughts on the subject, but I'd like to hear responses to this stuff before I proceed.

[mneme]

Nothing for a day...

Are people just waiting for someone to make the first vote before committing, or is there something more to discuss?

[esme]

I need to reread and I suppose others have to do the same. Since it's unlikely that Hastur is immune to investigations and that there are three townies left, *I* know that it is extremely likely that the town loses if I'm lynched.

I find it somewhat suspicious that you are not saying more about me and others, but pushing for a vote.

From my POV, it's *very* likely that Pooky is scum. Actually, I can practically be sure that there is either just one scum left or Pooky is scum which makes Pooky the right lynch, but you don't know what I know, so I have to look through his posts to maybe convince you. I'm especially interested in the quick-lynches.

I'm also not so sure, we can completely exclude the possibility that Mr, Flay is The Delivery Man, because the alternative win condition suggestion came after I pushed for including TDM on the possible scum list.

[Mr. Flay]

I'm much more prepared to lynch esme than Pooky at this point. If esme comes up town somehow and we're still alive, then Pooky's on the chopping block, but right now, we've got no reason to doubt his sanity, do we? Aside from esme's POV, of course.

Sorry, I meant to post a more complete reply to Fuldu's 4 choices, but I'm headed out now...maybe later/tomorrow.

[esme]

.......................
darquiel lynch:

Fritzler
Esme
Flay
SubtleTactix (as per modcount 25th Sept 2:46 PM, the first Delivery discussion between Fuldu and me is immediately before that)
mneme (25th Sep 6:47 PM)
alko (25th Sep 12:16 AM)
Blackberry (3rd Oct 7:51PM)

Lynch

.................
Genocide Heart lynch:

I think alko is more likely than esme -- esme instigated the GH bandwagon.

which mneme conveniently forgot in the meantime.

Genocide Heart, the only demon to have been lynched instead of nightkilled, was deadline lynched with only six votes. Of the living players, those voting for her were myself, esme, and Mr. Flay.

................
SubtleTactix lynch:

Flay (13th Oct 7:07 PM)
Fritzler (7:11)
mneme (8:16)
alko (9:22)
Pooky (9:54)

Lynch, neither subtletactix nor I had a chance to speak.

(Definitely raises suspicion on Pooky and then mneme.)

..................
alko lynch:

Fritzler (23rd Oct 1:07am)
Flay (2:23)
Pooky (3:31)

gets stuck, mneme doesn't post during that period

Fritzler unvotes (3:51pm)
votes esme
and revotes (24th Oct 1:16 PM)
some discussion without mneme
mneme returns and votes(24th Oct 5:05 PM)
(this is the post where mneme mentions the GH wagon)

Lynch
...........

Delivery Man issue:

esme, what makes you think Sister Mary or the Delivery Man are scum? The former I can see, but DEATH ended up killing the latter...not exactly much of an ally.

About the Delivery Man/Other Horsemen/yellow roles discussion: I don't think the Delivery Man is as likely to be scum as, say, Sister Mary. I do think we have the Other Horsemen, and esme might be one.

The Delivery Man

may

have an independent win condition, something like find all the horsemen or something, would be the only possibility there. But... Pooky, are you still getting straight good vibes/bad vibes on everyone?

The bold is Flay's. I don't think that we can exclude Mr. Flay from being the Delivery Man from these posts.

So, I say hell is Pooky and possibly mneme. If the Delivery Man is indeed scum, I don't think we can do much against it at this point.

I encourage you all to look at the wagons for yourself. The reasoning or absence thereof is also quite interesting.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

There's absolutely no reason why a demon wouldn't vote his ally in order to look more innocent, if you note my voting and posting patterns during the earlier days, you'd notice I wanted to post as little as possible so that others would have as little of an idea of who I wanted to investigate, I only came out with an investigation to defend an innocent or go after a guilty.

From my POV I know I'm protown investigator, since I got 2 innocents and Fudlu(i luv that sound) is innocent by association, this leaves you as scumbag unless we either have only 1 scum left(with immunity from investigation, which means we dont lose if we mess up on you) or 2 scum(you being one of them).

I can definitely see Sister Mary as being investigation immune to my role, but Occam's razor says that we have you, Hastur Demon Scumbag, cornered and trapped.

vote Esme

If tommorrow happens, I'd like to state my suspicions on who the last scum is, I've found Flay to be very helpful over the course of the game, I don't really know how he plays as scum so much but it strikes me that he would play this hard to seem helpful if he had an investigation immunity, Mneme hasn't seemed nearly as helpful and been somewhat uncommitted, but I don't know if it's cuz he not as dedicated as Flay or because he's just turned off by a townie role.

I could see Flay as being more likely to be the last scum than Mneme.

If Fuldu could state his opinion on the Flay vs. Mneme question too that would be helpful.

[Fuldu]

Well, the (and I think valid) point that esme makes about the GH wagon is that it was a deadline lynch and could easily have gone to no lynch instead with a little less support. It's not quite the same as saying that scum are willing to put votes on their buddies when if they hadn't done so, we might well have ended up not lynching their buddy.

So, what I think is that it isn't just a question of who the most probable scum is, but what the best play for today is. And that's a totally different question. I think the most likely scenario is probably that esme is the lone remaining scum. But I'm not confident that that's true. And (and this is the key) if there's only one scum left, then it's not vital that we get it right today. Today is not lynch or lose if we're down to one scum. It's only lynch or lose if we have two scum left. So my view is that we should play today to avoid losing, not necessarily to tie up the win.

And that means that esme is the wrong lynch for today. If there's only a single scum left, it's probably esme. But if there are two scum, we have several scenarios.

esme + Flay - possible, but not likely since they were both on the deadline GH lynch and it definitely wouldn't have gone through if they'd both remained off of it

esme + mneme - possible

Flay + mneme - highly improbable, since that means they both have investigative immunity

esme + Pooky - highly improbable, since, again, that's awfully ballsy of Pooky in terms of how he presented his investigations

Flay + Pooky - possible, and in fact the one of these two-scum scenarios I consider most probable

mneme + Pooky - improbable, since that means Flay has to be the Delivery Man even after his comment about a possible alternative win condition for that role. If Flay turns out to be the DM, I will be berating him for that comment, since he could easily have stuck with "I don't think that's likely" or simply not commenting on it.

Overall, my two most likely scenarios are either esme alone or Flay + Pooky, but the two scum scenario is more dangerous today and since there's a possibility that Flay is scum alone and no such possibility with Pooky, I think Mr. Flay is the right lynch for today. The only scenario I consider even remotely probable that would result in an immediate loss is esme + mneme. If Flay turns out the be the Alien (and the game isn't over) we

know

esme is the last scum tomorrow. If Flay turns out to be Hastur and the game isn't over, then Pooky is a good, but not certain, lynch the following day (since it's possible that Hastur has investigative immunity, even though I think it's unlikely). If Flay turns out to be Sister Mary, then tomorrow will be an interesting discussion.

I, of course, totally understand Pooky's viewpoint that if he knows he's innocent then esme is the right lynch. I agree with the argument, but since I don't know that he's innocent, I can't join him in that vote.

[esme]

+) You forget that if we have two scum, then they won't both have investigation immunity and then I don't see how you can explain that Pooky is still alive. Also, *not* having Agnes and TSNCA Pulsifer in the game does make sense chronologically, and this leaves Pooky's ability without role.

+) I didn't just vote for GH, I started and advertised it on Day 4 with multiple scum groups. This should be the main reason for you not to vote me and Pooky completely misrepresented what happened by saying that voting for an ally is normal.

+) I don't agree that it is necessary for Pooky to vote me at this point if he's innocent. He also must know that he should have died if remaining scum are not immune to investigation which doesn't exactly warrant an automatic following of investigation results in the face of other evidence. In particular, Pooky should have looked through old posts before voting, if he is pro-town.

+) Fuldu didn't want to put the Delivery Man down as possible scum, so I strongly argued for it. Mr. Flay was against it, but conceded that he

might

have an alternative win condition. I think that this exchange makes it more *unlikely* that Mr. Flay is demon scum, not more likely.

+) I really wished you would read old posts, including mine. We have 50 pages, including the lynch of a demon, and lots and lots of discussion.

+) Of all remaining players, Mneme has the most noncommittal posts in this game, is on the quick-lynches, not on the demon-lynch and now has innocently asked whether there is anything to discuss. I strongly suggest that we now wait until Mneme has posted an in-depth analysis addressing the points in the posts of Fuldu and me. Afterwards, I would like to hear from Pooky why he thinks he is still alive. A typical Mr. Flay post is of course always welcome.

[Fuldu]

Fuldu didn't want to put the Delivery Man down as possible scum, so I strongly argued for it. Mr. Flay was against it, but conceded that he might have an alternative win condition. I think that this exchange makes it more *unlikely* that Mr. Flay is demon scum, not more likely.

I don't follow that conclusion at all. To my mind, it makes it more unlikely that Mr. Flay is the Delivery Man. Why would a plain townie even suggest that his role could have an alternative win condition? That's just bad play, to my way of thinking. And if Mr. Flay's not the Delivery Man and you're not the Delivery Man, then one of the two of you isn't the plain townie that you've claimed.