Ladies Night -- Game Over

[Sotty7]

I see potential for the Paws wagon to be all town, that could be bias on my side because I thought she would flip scum quite strongly. UK is one of my scum reads though but she ranks a ways behind my top pick.

Vote: Snow Bunny

Floating around all the popular wagons yesterday and even today, kept herself very open to any lynch she needed. With camn's flip and Ojanen talking about hypo cops I am wondering if it wasn't just a great switched pulled off by scum. With Apok confirmed as the vig now I think Ojanen was shifting attention away from the Snow Bunny lynch to protect her. I don't buy the cop explanation and seem like a big leap considering Haylen's play.

I think Hoop is likely town so I wouldn't be willing to lynch her. I think Snow Bunny or Ojanen should be the lynch. UK is a distant 3rd.

[DrippingGoofball]

Based on the previous wagons and votes, I'd say Hoopla. But Sotty is there too.

Do you have a reason for this, independent of my vote analysis?

[DrippingGoofball]

...now I think Ojanen was shifting attention away from the Snow Bunny lynch to protect her. I don't buy the cop explanation and seem like a big leap considering Haylen's play.

That opinion is scummy on two levels. You have to believe the following:

(1) Ojanen-scum would have sacrificed her own safety the next day to protect her alleged scumpal.
(2) Ojanen-scum has creatively imagined that Haylen had a negative result on a townie and exploited this - and NK'd Fenchurch instead (yes I'm assuming that's the scum NK)

Neither of these scenarios have any credibility.

Sounds like you're trying to keep townies "lynchable" as much as you can.

[DizzyIzzyB13]

There you go. Also, I didn't target anyone last night, because I didn't have firm enough suspicions on anyone.

Something that stood out to me from yesterday - I found it curious that this comment didn't garner more attention. At the very least, I would have thought it'd get a query or two as to Apokalyptika's prior tendencies as vig. To satisfy my curiosity: Apok, have you played vig before, what happened on any previous occasions re: night one kills and have any occured on this site that I can check for myself? Other players: Is there any reason why this particular issue didn't get more attention yesterday?

[UncertainKitten]

Izzy: Apok's confirmed. There is no role combination that allows for two deaths and Apok being scum.

Why this issue didn't get attention is because we can actually read the first post.

[DizzyIzzyB13]

Izzy: Apok's confirmed. There is no role combination that allows for two deaths and Apok being scum.

Well, there is Scum Apok + a vig who didn't counterclaim, as ridiculously unlikely as that scenario is. That's not the point, though.

Why this issue didn't get attention is because we can actually read the first post.

Please elaborate. When the comment was made yesterday, Apok was not confirmed - you had a vig claim no kill on night one, in a game where there's no assurance of a vig existing when the claim was made and no corroborating evidence. What have I missed in my read through that ensured nobody even raised the issue as to why Apok apparently no killed?

[UncertainKitten]

You do realize that any vig would be fucking STUPID to not shoot Apok, right? Especially when I

directly told them to because it was common sense?

My elaboration would be that the vig issue is pretty damn easy to sort out at night. Given Scum Apok + Vig, you get Scum Apok shot in the face. Given Scum Apok fakeclaiming vig, you'd have one kill N2, and thusly lynch scum Apok.

There was, quite literally, NO WAY for scum Apok to get away with the vig claim after Night 2.

I'm not sure how you are missing this?

[DizzyIzzyB13]

Which part of "That's not the point, though" did you miss? I'm not really interested in questioning whether Apok is the vig or not, since barring utterly ridiculous circumstances that's all but confirmed. I'm just interested in the answers to questions I would have asked yesterday for my own peace of mind and in investigating why the claim managed to go unqueried, particularly when there are a gamut of possibilities that don't end up in a clean two kill night that pretty much confirms the vig. Your attempted answer doesn't exactly inspire confidence.

[UncertainKitten]

Again, I don't understand how this has

any point

besides wasting time and not doing any actual scumhunting.

You're faking activity. Stop it.

[DizzyIzzyB13]

It's unusual for people to completely ignore such claims. I would like to understand why people did it, because their reasons for doing so speak to their thought processes and thus their ultimate motivation. You seem awfuly riled by this simple line of enquiry.

[UncertainKitten]

If you'll read the rest of the game, you'll notice I have a penchant for getting pissed at stupidity. Not to be so blunt but, hey, you're being pretty stupid right now ^-^.

[UncertainKitten]

However, out of curiosity, just what do you expect to find outside of the fact that the handling of vig claim was essentially common sense?

[DizzyIzzyB13]

If you'll read the rest of the game, you'll notice I have a penchant for getting pissed at stupidity. Not to be so blunt but, hey, you're being pretty stupid right now ^-^.

I don't know, based on the game so far it seems more like you get angry when you're the one being stupid. ^-^

However, out of curiosity, just what do you expect to find outside of the fact that the handling of vig claim was essentially common sense?

At a minimum, insight. Whether there's anything else, who knows?

I'm not liking the read I'm getting from your behaviour, though.

[UncertainKitten]

Well, that'd be cause you're stupid, but it's ok ^-^.

Also, insight's not gonna cut it.

What

insight? It's easy to claim "reaction fishing", but it's funny how often people don't know what they are actually looking for.

[Snow_Bunny]

Based on the previous wagons and votes, I'd say Hoopla. But Sotty is there too.

Do you have a reason for this, independent of my vote analysis?

I, independently, analysed Paws, mine, Apok and camn's wagon. As you said Paws was a wagon Hoopla would have avoided, and seeing how she jumped to the other three wagons, that seems like scum to me. Sotty performs similarly, but Hoopla stands out more.

[DrippingGoofball]

Good point.

Vote Count 1.2

• Hoopla

  (3) (Sucrose - Sotty7 -

  Apokalyptika

  )
  
  
  Haylen
  (2) (Hoopla -

  Haylen

  )
  
  
  Apokalyptika
  (2) (

  esuriospiritus

  -

  camn

  )
  
  
  camn
  (2) (UncertainKitten - Snow_Bunny)
  
  
  Sotty7
  (0) (

  esuriospiritus

  )
  
  
  Not Voting
  (6) (

  UncertainKitten

  - Ojanen -

  camn

  - chauchaudotcom -

  Sotty7

  - cepi -

  Apokalyptika

  -

  Paws

  -

  Fenchurch

  -

  DrippingGoofball

  -

  Snow_Bunny

  )

Vote Count 1.3

• camn

  (4) (UncertainKitten - Snow_Bunny -

  Haylen

  -

  Apokalyptika

  )
  
  
  Paws
  (3) (Sotty7 - Hoopla -

  camn

  )
  
  
  Apokalyptika
  (2) (

  esuriospiritus

  -

  camn

  - cepi)
  
  
  Snow_Bunny
  (1) (chauchaudotcom)
  
  
  UncertainKitten
  (1) (Sucrose)
  
  
  Haylen
  (0) (

  Hoopla

  -

  Haylen

  )
  
  
  Hoopla
  (0) (

  Sucrose

  -

  Sotty7

  -

  Apokalyptika

  )
  
  
  Not Voting
  (4) (Ojanen -

  chauchaudotcom

  -

  cepi

  -

  Paws

  -

  Fenchurch

  -

  DrippingGoofball

  )

Vote Count 2.3

• Haylen

  (3) (

  Apokalyptika

  - Sucrose -

  Fenchurch

  )
  
  
  Snow_Bunny

  (3) (Hoopla -

  camn

  - UncertainKitten)
  
  
  Apokalyptika

  (3) (cepi -

  DrippingGoofball

  - Ojanen)
  
  
  camn
  (2) (

  Haylen

  - Snow_Bunny)
  
  
  Snow White
  (1) (Sotty7)
  
  
  Not Voting
  (1) (

  Ojanen

  - Snow White)

Vote Count 2.5

• Apokalyptika

  (5) (cepi -

  DrippingGoofball

  -

  Ojanen

  - Hoopla -

  camn

  -

  Fenchurch

  )
  
  
  Snow_Bunny
  (2) (

  camn

  - UncertainKitten - Sotty7)
  
  
  Haylen
  (2) (

  Apokalyptika

  - Sucrose)
  
  
  camn
  (1) (

  Haylen

  -

  Snow_Bunny

  )
  
  
  UncertainKitten
  (1) (Snow_Bunny)
  
  
  Not Voting
  (2) (Snow White -

  Fenchurch

  - Ojanen)

[DrippingGoofball]

RECALCULATING

One of Sotty and UKitten is scum.
5 Sotty7
5 UKitten

One of Ojanen, Hoopla, UKitten, SnowBunny is scum.
5 Ojanen
5 Hoopla
5 UKitten
5 SnowBunny

Snowbunny likely bus'ed on Day 2 by Sotty
1 Sotty
1 SnowBUnny

VC 1.2 weak with information, inconclusive.

VC 1.3 all these wagons aren't on townies are they??? That's a weak belief, so one point only.
1 Snow_Bunny
1 UKitten
1 Hoopla

VC 2.3 is difficult to sort out, except that Hoopla is the one that broke the 3-way tie between Haylen-town, to Apok-town, by unvoting SNOW_BUNNY whose alignment is unknown.
2 SnowBunny
2 Hoopla

VC 2.5 - one of cepi and Hoopla is scum.
5 cepi
5 Hoopla
two of Ojanen, SnowWhite, SnowBunny, Sucrose, UKitten, Sotty is scum.
3.3 Ojanen
3.3 SnowWhite
3.3 SnowBunny
3.3 Sucrose
3.3 UKitten
3.3 Sotty

TOTALS

14.3 Ukitten
13 Hoopla
12.3 SnowBunny

9.3 Sotty
8.3 Ojanen
5 cepi
3.3 SnowWhite/chauchau
3.3 Sucrose/DI

Need to re-read, see if this makes sense as a scum team. I may have one of them wrong.

[DrippingGoofball]

Looking into what might have motivated scum to buff Fenchurch... the scum buffed a player they thought they couldn't lynch. Because Fenchurch's reads were mostly wrong, she only voted townies, and tended to be a follower.

Who has a meta of killing obvtownies at night, looking at no other reason?

Also, the scumteam must feel rather safe. Or maybe some WIFOM with that.

[DrippingGoofball]

Same goes for esuriospiritus. She wasn't strident on her scum reads, she had few of them.

[UncertainKitten]

Yeah, you see where my name is? You can put DizzyIzzy there instead and be right :O!

Hoopla's been giving me weird vibes but I haven't went for any confirmation to be honest. It's been hard to be motivated in this game to be honest. But whatev.

If you're wrong about Hoopla, it's probably Sotty.

Snow Bunny is and has been obv scum for most of this game and I was stupid to ever thing she wasn't.

[UncertainKitten]

Also, too much weight on the Paws wagon. Who are you trying to fool, DGB?

[DrippingGoofball]

OK, let's suppose that the Paws wagon never happened:

TOTALS

13 Hoopla
12.3 SnowBunny
9.3 Ukitten

8.3 Ojanen
5 cepi
4.3 Sotty
3.3 SnowWhite/chauchau
3.3 Sucrose/DI

[UncertainKitten]

Seems closer to right. Sucrose is still scum .

[DrippingGoofball]

VOTES

*UKitten

camn

Paws

Sucrose/DI
SnowBunny

*Sucrose

Hoopla
UKitten

Haylen

*Sotty7

Hoopla

Paws

chauchau/SW
SnowBunny

*SnowBunny

Hoopla

camn

UKitten

Apok

*Ojanen

Apok

camn

*Hoopla

Haylen

Paws

Sucrose/DI
SnowBunny

DrippingGoofball

Apok

*chauchau/SW

SnowBunny

*cepi

Apok

Haylen

OK based on this, I'd venture to say that Sotty7 has got to be the scumbag that's not being bus'ed.

UKitten has reciprocal votes with Sucrose/DI andSnowBunny.
Sucrose/DI has reciprocal votes with UKitten and Hoopla.
Hoopla has reciprocal votes with Sucrose/DI and SnowBunny.
Sotty votes Hoopla, chauchau/SW and SnowBunny, but gets no reciprocal suspicion.

If Sotty flips scum, she'd be scum with Hoopla/SnowBunny (I'm sure she's bus'ing one of them) and UKitten/Sucrose.

[UncertainKitten]

So, basically, I'm damned if I'm right. That's lovely. What happens if both Sucrose AND Snow_Bunny are scum, huh?