Ladies Night -- Game Over

[Hoopla]

WOW, SORRY I'VE NOT BEEN HERE THE LAST TWO DAYS. I WENT ON AN IMPROMPTU ROADTRIP - FORGIVE ME. CATCHING UP NOW.

[RedCoyote]

I'm prodding Snow_White.

[Ojanen]

Aaand I'm back. No reread yet but looking quickly at cepi's argument, I took a look at this:

Actually, upon reading cepi's case, it occurs to me that UK made no posts between day start and Snow's. Which posts made you feel UK was more town, precisely?

The ones at the end of past day. When camn's wagon began to form and end.

Looking back, post 562

Too bad you're scum in this game and you'll have to be lynched!
But thanks! ^_^

Clearly at this point she's not feeling more town on UK.
UK's only posts after that are these:

Oh, Apok. You have to shoot tonight. It'll prove your role. Of course, if you get shot because you fakeclaimed vig, that solves itself as well.

Well, the good news is the nature of her claim and the set up means...if she's not dead tomorrow, and there was only one kill, odds are she's lying.

If Haylen isn't vig'ed, Apok is lynched. No questions asked.

If ANY vig occurs this would be the most fucktarded thing you could do.

SB is not telling the truth about the reason she switched stances, that much is clear. I don't think I'm missing anything major in these 3 pretty self-evident posts.
S_B, explain.
Won't lend my vote to anything before the reread cepi, sorry. (Hi sotty, I already know what you are typing.)

[Sotty7]

Hi Ojanen, I'm not typing anything about that.

I can wait for your re-read.

[UncertainKitten]

Hi cepi. You're not reading the game, are you? If you were reading the game, you know that I have a marked preference for a Snow_Bunny lynch. But, DGB is doing something I approve of, so I've acquiesced with her current request.

Please read the fucking game now, please? Cause I've been voting Snow_Bunny since nearly the start of the day. I switched on DGB's request because I think it will help decipher who the scum are more certainly.

But, hey, we agree on one thing.

Snow_Bunny is scum.

She needs to die soon. But we also need more vote activity before I switch to her if I understand what DGB is doing correctly.

[DrippingGoofball]

We need some lady with cojones to move her vote to one of Hoopla, Sotty, or DizzyIzzy.

[UncertainKitten]

We need snow_Bunny lynched though eventually!

[cepi]

Any reason why you think Bunny is town, Mrs. DGB?

[cepi]

Hi cepi. You're not reading the game, are you? If you were reading the game, you know that I have a marked preference for a Snow_Bunny lynch. But, DGB is doing something I approve of, so I've acquiesced with her current request.

Please read the fucking game now, please? Cause I've been voting Snow_Bunny since nearly the start of the day. I switched on DGB's request because I think it will help decipher who the scum are more certainly.

But, hey, we agree on one thing.

Snow_Bunny is scum.

She needs to die soon. But we also need more vote activity before I switch to her if I understand what DGB is doing correctly.

So lets see : you arent even sure what DGB is doing but you prefer voting another person (trusting someone who could very well be scum) instead of who YOU think is scum?

How the fuck do you dont want me to suspect you?

[UncertainKitten]

Well, you see, while I might not be certain, it's still quite LIKELY I know what she's doing. And even if she's not doing what I think she's doing, GUESS WHAT!? I can do what I think she's doing just as easily and thank her for the idea .

Further, Sotty isn't THAT bad a vote, Snow_Bunny is just better.

How the fuck do you dont want me to think you're a fucktard?

[DrippingGoofball]

Any reason why you think Bunny is town, Mrs. DGB?

I think Hoopla/Sotty/DizzyIzzy(Sucrose) are the scum.

[UncertainKitten]

Then what of Bunny's contradiction just now, DGB?

[DrippingGoofball]

Missed it, where?

[UncertainKitten]

Aaand I'm back. No reread yet but looking quickly at cepi's argument, I took a look at this:

Actually, upon reading cepi's case, it occurs to me that UK made no posts between day start and Snow's. Which posts made you feel UK was more town, precisely?

The ones at the end of past day. When camn's wagon began to form and end.

Looking back, post 562

Too bad you're scum in this game and you'll have to be lynched!
But thanks! ^_^

Clearly at this point she's not feeling more town on UK.
UK's only posts after that are these:

Oh, Apok. You have to shoot tonight. It'll prove your role. Of course, if you get shot because you fakeclaimed vig, that solves itself as well.

Well, the good news is the nature of her claim and the set up means...if she's not dead tomorrow, and there was only one kill, odds are she's lying.

If Haylen isn't vig'ed, Apok is lynched. No questions asked.

If ANY vig occurs this would be the most fucktarded thing you could do.

SB is not telling the truth about the reason she switched stances, that much is clear. I don't think I'm missing anything major in these 3 pretty self-evident posts.
S_B, explain.
Won't lend my vote to anything before the reread cepi, sorry. (Hi sotty, I already know what you are typing.)

Ojanen outlines it well. This is a more scummy contradiction because I think it's trying to push cepi's conclusions, so that even if she gets lynched, she'll at least secure my mislynch.

[Ojanen]

Imo either SnowBunny is scum with x and y or the scum lies in 2-3 from [Sotty, dizzy, SW] and 0-1 of my strong townreads [cepi/Hoopla/DGB].

[RedCoyote]

I'm going to start looking for a Snow White replacement.

---

Vote Count 3.3

• Snow_Bunny

  (2) (Sotty7 - cepi)
  
  
  Hoopla
  (1) (Snow_Bunny)
  
  
  DrippingGoofball
  (1) (Hoopla)
  
  
  Sotty7
  (1) (UncertainKitten)
  
  
  DizzyIzzyB13
  (1) (DrippingGoofball)
  
  
  Not Voting
  (5) (DizzyIzzyB13 - Snow White - Apokalyptika - Ojanen)

With ten alive, it takes six to lynch.

Current Deadline: Oct. 6th, 2010 at 6:00 AM (CST)

[Hoopla]

Appologies for my lack of input recently. I've been going over the thread to try and bring some unique thoughts to game. Here is what I think;

Final Day 1 Vote Count

Paws

(8) (Sotty7 - UncertainKitten -

Apokalyptika

-

Haylen

- DrippingGoofball -

esuriospiritus

-

camn

-

Fenchurch

)

camn

(1) (Snow_Bunny)

Apokalyptika

(1) (cepi)

Snow_Bunny

(1) (chauchaudotcom)

UncertainKitten

(1) (Sucrose)

Sucrose

(1) (Hoopla)

Not Voting

(2) (Ojanen -

Paws

)

I think it's worthwhile to note that the entirity of deaths this game have been

on

the Paws wagon, particularly when it was being speculated heavily that the Paws wagon (particularly the back-end) was largely town-based. These predictions are coming true, and I don't think it's a coincidence all the deaths have been amongst that group of players. It's very probable that more scum are

off

this wagon than on it, by sheer virtue of where the nightkills have gone. In the instance of two/three scum being off the Paws wagon, it would be entirely reckless to shoot off the wagon to narrow the pool there, when it was roundly believed scum were probably off the Paws wagon.

The fact we've lynched from the back-end of the Paws wagon on Day 2 doesn't feel like coincidence either, and looking through the thread today, I'm confused why it hasn't been talked about more. Most of us seem to believe Ojanen's intentions were pure, I know mine are pure, but is it reasonable to believe this was a scum-powered wagon?

Final Day 2 Vote Count

camn

(7) (

Haylen

- Ojanen - Hoopla - UncertainKitten - Snow_Bunny -

Fenchurch

-

Apokalyptika

)

Haylen

(2) (Sucrose - DrippingGoofball)

Snow_Bunny

(2) (Sotty7 - camn)

Apokalyptika

(1) (cepi)

Not Voting

(1) (Snow White)

Strangely, we still have a slew of confirmed townies amongst this wagon, which would inevitably narrow it down to a small pool of players if we're to believe this wagon was pushed/helped along by scum. This locks us into two modes of thought: The wagon is pushed entirely by townies, or at best one scum. OR, there are two (the chances of three are so slim) scum on there, and they're either unfamiliar with how bandwagon analysis might trap them, or they're prepared to take the chance if they know what sort of analysis might be used.

But if we're to believe two scum are on this wagon, we need to find suitable partnerships amongst this group of four players. Contrary to how DGB does analysis, I'll include myself in the analysis with my alignment up for debate - rather than force-feeding you dozens of posts with my name constantly in green. I hope those relying on their wagon analysis or those just using DGB's coloured vote-counts as a tool understand and ackowledge the entirity of her conclusions is based on her being town, which only she can know. Please come to your own conclusions.

Anyway, back to suitable partnerships amongst camn wagon;

Spoiler: The possible scumpairs on the camn wagon

Ojanen/Hoopla:

I think most of us have ruled out Ojanen as a suspect, which makes it difficult to believe her as a component of any scum pair. We have mutual town reads on each other, that is the closest to anything substancial here though, and I would think most would see this pairing as unlikely. For the sake of this experiment, I'll rule out Ojanen, mostly because her behavioural tells are solid enough to help me improve my process of elimination quite safely.

Snow_Bunny/UncertainKitten:

Possible, and I think most would agree - the likeliest combination of the four players that can be made. Have traded votes on each other during Day 2, and it's reasonable to interpret either of them as distancing, as it was largely during the midst of a powerful Apok wagon. Neither of the SB/UK votes could possibly be influential enough to bring either of them into the equation for lynch - it's a safe distancing technique, actually. You get points for distancing, being at each other's throats, but it comes at a time where there is a clear candidate for lynch, which minimises any risks of your votes drawing in more. Plus it keeps blood off both of your hands when the town lynch goes though.

Hoopla/UncertainKitten:

Not possible from my perspective, but I'll defend this pairing anyway to make this analysis more accessible to other townies reading on. UK was on the Paws wagon, the camn wagon and most other major wagons of the game. I've probably been the closest rival to her as far as 'votes thrown down' go, and have pursued multiple avenues in this game, and though we've never really suspected each other, we've both been largely active overall in the pursuit of pushing wagons and keeping the game moving forward. This is a wifom defense, but I don't think this matters - we're not really a believable scumpair.

Hoopla/UncertainKitten:

Again, not possible from my perspective, but I'll defend this pairing. I've been in favour of Snow_Bunny's lynch throughout the game, and though Snow's only come around to me recently, mutual bussing like this would be pretty reckless, and frankly, unbelievable. I nominated Snow_Bunny/Haylen to be vigged yesterday, which was roundly agreed with, and I think that is a decent point against a SB/Hoopla pairing.

Having taken those pairings into consideration, the question to ask now is this: Which is more likely? Any of those pairings, OR zero/one scum on the camn wagon?

I'm overwhelmingly coming to the conclusion that it's the latter, with a notable preference for one scum being on the camn wagon. My opinion is biased in the sense that I can rule out many pairings with myself and to a lesser extent Ojanen, but I've provided a report that I feel is fair to the townies that don't have the information I have. I think this, along with the Paws wagon is a very reasonable assumption, and I'm now going to break the players into groups;

OFF

the Paws and camn wagon:

cepi, Izzy, Snow White

OFF

the Paws,

ON

the camn wagon:

Hoopla, Snow_Bunny, Ojanen

ON

the Paws,

OFF

the camn wagon:

Sotty, DGB

ON

the Paws and camn wagon:

UncertainKitten, Apokalyptika

I think it's believable and very likely that both wagons DO NOT have two/three scum on them. I have a notable preference for one on each, though zero on a wagon is certainly possible and more likely that two. If my assumption about there being zero/one scum on both wagons, it means that at least one of the players OFF both wagons are scum. It also means UK is very likely to be town - the provisor is, if she is scum, then her buddies are in the top group, but again, I don't think UK-scum is likely.

The pool of one OFF and one ON is the other source for scum to be lingering, and if my assumption that there is one scum on both wagons, it must mean that there is one scum in the first three groups, unless UK is scum, which she probably isn't. So, from my perspective, the scumteam lies here;

One of

cepi, Izzy, Snow White

One of

Snow_Bunny, Ojanen, Hoopla

One of

Sotty, DGB

These are the pools of players I get purely from bandwagon analysis, and taking other behavioural tells in such as timing of votes and presence in the thread, I think we can narrow down the indivual groups even further to make accurate calls about which group gives us the best odds.

I suspect the first group is between Izzy and SW - most of have cepi as a town read. Reading him as tajo, he's been aggressive and is obviously the likeliest townie in that first group. It's possible we have two scum here if one of the lynch wagons has zero scum on it, but I don't think it's anywhere near as likely as one scum being on both wagons. Most of us at some point pinned chauchau down as town too, and though it was merely on behavioural terms, it's probably enough to compensate for Snow White's lacklustre display, which makes Izzy the favourite in this first group.

Her entry into the game has been subpar, coupled with the lurking Sucrose, it makes for a decent lynch. Sucrose was also accused for fluff posting even when she was around, and was picked up on for pushing a nonsensicle tell of the three most articulate players being scum. UK correctly refered to this as pulling three names out of a hat - it was completely arbitrary, and beyond that she had minimal presense at all which is another minor scumtell.

The second group is almost certainly where I'll be lynching from, and to be specific, Snow_Bunny. Myself and Ojanen are the only others here, and for Snow_Bunny not to be scum, then one of the following things must be wrong. Ojanen is scum (unlikely). There is zero scum on the camn wagon (unlikely) or UK is scum and her buddies are both in the first group (unlikely). There is also the possibility of two scum being on either wagon, but this is even more unlikely I feel, and if this is true, it still gives Snow_Bunny a shot of being scum.

The third group is where Sotty/DGB is, and the only way one of these two aren't scum is if there were no scum on the Paws wagon (less likely than 1) or UK is the scum on this wagon (also unlikely). We've all speculated that the back-end of the Paws wagon was town, and this has come into fruition, but I find it difficult to swallow that there was no scum on it at all. Before the Paws wagon started generating steam, it would have been seen as safe vote for scum, moreso than a wagon that would blossum so quickly and look bad to be seen on it. But of course, being a 'bad wagon' is seen as good, and though I think few scum would have anticipated the wifom circle back around to it's beginning, it wouldn't have been a disasterous move to be on the Paws wagon early.

Sotty's vote sticks out far more than DGB's, if only because it was made so early in the game, and is where it was nestled for the entirity of the day. That screams ultra-safe vote. DGB's situation is a little more unique, mostly because I haven't seen her play this way before - I suppose I'm boxing her in based more on behavioural tells. She's been less aggressive and voted sparingly, which exaggerates her decision to actively vote Paws - it's one of the more definitive positions she's taken in the game, with her now residing and relying on a vote analysis, one I admit, I don't understand. She gives arbitrary values to certain actions - I wouldn't mind if she succinctly summarized the logic she is using to come to her conclusions. It's very stream of thought. Anyway, of these two, I'm more inclinded to believe DGB is scum, only marginally - I'm struggling to pinpoint the town motivation for some of her actions.

~~

If you didn't want to read all of my logic that builds to that conclusion, I think the simplest way to summarise is that I'm quite confident there is one scum on each lynch wagon, meaning we can safely narrow the scum into four pools. My reasoning for believing

that

number of scum feels very solid, and the qualifier of there possibily being zero scum on a wagon isn't such a bad result as it still keeps UK psuedo-confirmed and keeps the make-up of scum in mostly the same area. But I don't think I'm wrong.

I'm largely in favour of lynching Snow_Bunny today. I probably won't consider moving my vote to anyone other than Izzy in group 1, or DGB in group 3. These feel like suboptimal choices for today though.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Snow_Bunny

[Hoopla]

We need some lady with cojones to move her vote to one of Hoopla, Sotty, or DizzyIzzy.

Why the hell are you campaigning for votes without actually putting one down yourself?

This is just another example of DGB not believing in what she says - really, it has been a shoddy imitation of her town game.

[Snow_Bunny]

Any reason why you think Bunny is town, Mrs. DGB?

I think Hoopla/Sotty/DizzyIzzy(Sucrose) are the scum.

I partially agree with this. But I rather lynch Hoopla or Sotty first and then see.

Ah, massive wall hurts my eyes. I'll get to read it eventually. Not now, too busy with work.

[UncertainKitten]

Rather impressive. Why can't other people post like you, Hoopla!

...as much as I want to see someone switch votes to one of the three DGB mentioned, since I think we can pull some information from it, the fact that my vote will obviously be leaving Sotty as soon as I see that vote kinda weakens the chances of Sotty being voted I think, and therefore I'm kinda coloring the results by accident...

I think I'll switch to Snow_Bunny

Unvote, Vote Snow_Bunny

This is L-2

Cut by Snow_Bunny: And DizzyIzzy is your partner.

Intriguingly enough, I also think that Sotty might be your third and you're just trying to keep things even in the soft bussing/soft protection department.

Hmm...or perhaps just protecting Izzy and agreeing with partner DGB.

ARGH, this sucks, we have two out of three but we have one hell of a choice for the last one...

[DrippingGoofball]

We need some lady with cojones to move her vote to one of Hoopla, Sotty, or DizzyIzzy.

Why the hell are you campaigning for votes without actually putting one down yourself?

This is just another example of DGB not believing in what she says - really, it has been a shoddy imitation of her town game.

I'm voting DIzzyIzzy, you turkey

[DrippingGoofball]

BTW I'm really loving Hoopla right now, so I've got DizzyIzzy & Sotty as main scum suspects. I'm feeling those two more strongly than Snow_Bunny.

[UncertainKitten]

@DGB:

Not Voting (5) (DizzyIzzyB13 - Snow White - Apokalyptika - DrippingGoofball - Ojanen)

Is that an error?

[DrippingGoofball]

UK - would you do me a favor?

Switch your vote to Sotty7.

vote: DizzyIzzy

Here it is
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 5#p2499115

[DrippingGoofball]

'Tis an error.

Dammit. Sorry about that. I don't know how I keep missing votes, because I'm actually spectating the game with much interest. This will be fixed.