Ladies Night -- Game Over

[UncertainKitten]

Yeah, I checked in ISO after I said that and saw you haven't unvoted. How disturbing.

[DrippingGoofball]

I'm willing to switch to SBunny, so she should claim.

[Ojanen]

I want a claim from SB too.

[Sotty7]

Snow, you haven't given any reason for your suspicion on me. You should change that.

I haven't read Hoops wall yet, I'll check it in a bit here. Suffering from a cold at the mo need some energy to tackle it.

[Ojanen]

Sotty, could you quickly answer a simple question:
how convinced are you that SB is scum? For example on a scale of 1 to 10 or anything similar that gets it across clearly.

[Hoopla]

I'm voting DIzzyIzzy, you turkey

Oh sorry.

The last vote-count had you listed as not voting. Red has it fixed up now, though.

[Sotty7]

Sotty, could you quickly answer a simple question:
how convinced are you that SB is scum? For example on a scale of 1 to 10 or anything similar that gets it across clearly.

I'd say I'm at around an 8.5 on how sure I am about Snow flipping scum right now. The more she tries to push on me with no reasoning the higher that number will go.

[Snow_Bunny]

*sigh*

Way to go, town. Want a claim? Have your stupid claim. Me is cop. Night 1 I investigated DGB, but I got no result. Second night I went over UK, and found her innocent. Not ruling out she's a GF, but I thought it was worth the risk to trust my result for now.

[Ojanen]

I was pretty sure you are either scum or cop, although I was holding back since my imagination was a bit too wild last time. And early claim better than later since this wagon seemed unevitable.
Any counterclaims or counters through a mason pair?
The fact that you claim no result means that if you speak the truth, it is provable by the existence of a doc/jk targeting DGB or you. This also gives the claim a bit of credit. I thought the only result matching with your posts would have been a town on Haylen N1.
Let's think. We should be able to crack this game.

[DrippingGoofball]

The chances of SB getting RB'd or JK'd are pretty slim. Also, to paint her innocent with the Godfather brush doesn't bode well for her honesty.

I'm not believing the claim.

[Snow_Bunny]

Well, I'm thinking there's a RB (or even a JK) who targeted me thinking he could stop a NK. Bad move, RB, bad move.

So, DGB, would you rather town assume UK is 100% confirmed when there's the chance she could be a GF?

Thinking about my wagon, I'm thinking cepi pushed too hard to know why my stance changed. I'd call that a very subtle rolefishing, but hey, that's just me.

You can lynch me if you want, truth is you'll be wasting a lynch. Chances are scum is going to NK, or risk getting a guilt (or me confirming another town.) If I survive through the night, you can always lynch me if you want if I don't provide anything. But, right now, the best move is to lynch someone else *coughcoughhooplasottycoughcough*

As the setup is, my claim is easily confirmable (scum HAS to kill me or risk too much), so, why waste a lynch on me?

[Ojanen]

Also, to paint her innocent with the Godfather brush doesn't bode well for her honesty.

I disagree with this being a valid tell since we know 1 out of 3 scum is godfather.
Noone lynch her right now please. The claim is über easily disproven if it's not true. If we have anyone in the game who is a cop, doc, backup, mason, a rb not targeting her N1 or a jk not targeting her/DGB, she is confirmed scum. Pretty stupid fake claim.

[UncertainKitten]

Yeah, best to wait for responses to the claim. I've already formulated some revisions to my theory as to who's scum though.

[Ojanen]

This'll get me some boos. But. I'll say at this point that, shock holler, I don't find it totally inconceivable that the whole camn wagon was town. IF SBs claim is true, it's in fact looking like that. Because Hoopla is such a strong townread and UK would have to be a GF.

Ultra

quick wagons (outside of lylo and a guilty result and so on) contain most likely town, VI scum who expect to get away with their meta and only quite-a-bit-bolder-than-average scum, and this must have looked like a really warty wagon.

But let's see if anyone has a guilty on SB first.

[DrippingGoofball]

I can agree to that. Especially if it means we're lynching Sotty or DizzyIssy instead.

[Ojanen]

In fact if I'd have to lay down a bet right now it would be that either SB is town, or less likely that SB had no help from the daytalking and messed up (lurker/being replaced buddies). I can see little other reason for claiming no result on D1 .

[Apokalyptika]

First off, apologies to all. This week has been busier than anticipated.

I definitely wasn't expecting Snow_Bunny to claim cop; I'm inclined towards believing it for now, though. As Ojanen said, it's a hard claim to pull off as scum here. So assuming Snow_Bunny is telling the truth, UK is somewhat cleared. Then, of course, we have that frustrating no-result on DGB...I'm holding off comment on that for the moment, though.

If SB is cop:

Unclear people on Paws: Sotty7 and DGB, with UK semiclear.
Unclear people on me: cepi, DGB, Hoopla.
Unclear people on camn: Ojanen and Hoopla, with UK semiclear.

Now, scum might avoid the Paws wagon because it seemed "too easy", and they might avoid the camn wagon for fear that Ojanen had some brilliant and scum-finding plan, but I can't see any good reason that they would avoid voting me. Thus, some subset of cepi, DGB, and Hoopla is scum. Of those three, I would be most inclined to believe DGB's scumminess. Going back to my list of people on 2 wagons (DGB, UK, SB, Hoopla), this is reinforced, as Hoopla's more townish than DGB from where I'm sitting. I'm not sure where I'd go from there, though, at least for now.

If SB is scum:

If SB is scum, then we should obviously be all over UK. I'd actually be more inclined to believe DGB to be town in this case; I can't see any reason scum would fake a roleblock on a scumpartner.

In both cases, though more if SB's cop, I have a slight feeling that one of Snow White/Dizzy is scum, just because I'm having real difficulty with finding a believable 3-person scumgroup.

Also, Hoopla, great post just now. I'm curious, does anyone else have any thoughts on my wagon? I feel that there's some real information there somewhere.

Note to self: SB voters were Sotty, cepi, Hoopla and UK, with pressure from DGB and Ojanen.

[UncertainKitten]

So...obviously scum would NEVER tell the truth ever if they were fakeclaiming cop, right? Please think things through before you say them, Apok. Please?

[Hoopla]

I tend not to think the claim is true, and Snow is just claiming to fish out the last powerroles for scum to pick them off later (it's the logical scumplay if you're going down). Though, as Ojanen says, it's a ridiculously simple claim to disprove, that it isn't worth lynching her for it when we have no players claiming contrary role information (ie; masons, nurse, jk/rb with other targets or another cop).

UNVOTE:

[Hoopla]

This'll get me some boos. But. I'll say at this point that, shock holler, I don't find it totally inconceivable that the whole camn wagon was town. IF SBs claim is true, it's in fact looking like that. Because Hoopla is such a strong townread and UK would have to be a GF.

Ultra

quick wagons (outside of lylo and a guilty result and so on) contain most likely town, VI scum who expect to get away with their meta and only quite-a-bit-bolder-than-average scum, and this must have looked like a really warty wagon.

No boos here - I'm starting to endorse this theory too. Of the two wagons on D1 and D2, camn's was the bigger/riskier assumption, because it had fewer suspects and I was banking on Snow_Bunny being scum. The facts are that if her claim holds it clears her and psuedo-clears UK, which is a massive swing in the make-up of that wagon, and puts scum squarely in the non-voters for that day. In my opinion, we need to be lynching someone OFF both the lynch wagons (cepi, Snow White, Izzy), or at worst someone OFF the camn wagon (DGB, Sotty).

The thing is, if all the scum is off the camn wagon, it almost certainly pins someone as scum in the cepi/SW/Izzy group, with a high likelihood of there being two in there. The only way this assumption fails is if there are two scum on the Paws wagon (DGB/Sotty/UK), which seems quite unlikely given UK is psuedo-cleared and DGB has been at Sotty's neck throughout the game. Of the off-both-wagons group Izzy is the clear candidate for scum. After replacing the habitually lurking Sucrose, she's done little to indicate she's interested in scumhunting, and when coupled with Sucrose's flimsy attempts, it's a slot that reeks of scum.

VOTE: DizzyIzzyB13

[RedCoyote]

I'm still looking for a Snow White replacement (I have one potential taker I'm waiting to hear back from), and I'm prodding DizzyIzzy.

---

Vote Count 3.4

• Snow_Bunny

  (3) (Sotty7 - cepi -

  Hoopla

  - UncertainKitten)
  
  
  DizzyIzzyB13
  (2) (DrippingGoofball - Hoopla)
  
  
  Hoopla
  (1) (Snow_Bunny)
  
  
  DrippingGoofball
  (0) (

  Hoopla

  )
  
  
  Sotty7
  (0) (

  UncertainKitten

  )
  
  
  Not Voting
  (4) (DizzyIzzyB13 - Snow White - Apokalyptika - Ojanen)

With ten alive, it takes six to lynch.

Current Deadline: Oct. 6th, 2010 at 6:00 AM (CST)

[RedCoyote]

I'm pleased to announce that the lovely Miyu will be replacing Snow White. Thanks, Miyu!

[Sotty7]

Really want Miyu's input on the game ASAP. I realize it is a somewhat big thread but we are at a key moment right now. Gut tells me not to believe the Snow claim but Ojanen is right, it is one easily disproven.

I'm gonna

Unvote

for now while I review a few things. Particularity Dizzy and chaucha's early play.

[DrippingGoofball]

I'd like to see a competing wagon on Sotty. For kicks.

[Miyu]

Hey all.
I just wanted to say that I am about to leave for work, but later this afternoon I'll have the entire thread read and post with my opinions and comments.