A Clash of Kings - A Divided Kingdom

[RichardGHP]

ML - Innocent Aligned and a Town wincon I presume?

[Macavitar]

Yes, my fake claim is Innocent Aligned with the Town win condition as per the mod's first post.

[Thor665]

You know what, I don't think I want to see Macavitar lynched today. If he's scum he deserves to go further for that brilliant claim, and really I just don't see that claim coming from scum. It's not a safe claim and frankly I could buy that maybe he was roleblocked.

I'm not sure about MoI - I've had a slight town there most of the game and I'm not sure I understand the case there (make that - I'm sure I don't grok that case).

CSL is still...what he is. Unsight I've been skeevy on for a while.

Vote: Unsight

I don't claim to be that brilliant with this vote here - I feel a little lost with the whole two scum team mechanic since this is my first game with them, and I could really probably go for any of the other three. But I don't think Mac is the right lynch anymore.

[Eddard Stark]

Vote count 5.7 - The "Valar Morghulis" votecount.

Macavitar (3) -

CSL, Unsight, diddin

Unsight (2) -

MagnaofIllusion, Thor665

MagnaofIllusion (1) -

Macavitar

Not voting (3) - Mina, RichardGHP, hasdgfas

Mina has been prodded.

With 9 alive it takes 5 lynch.
Deadline will hit on the 18th of September @ 6pm ES(D?)T.

[CSL]

Mac's claim is believable. This, I go back to who I think was scum in the first place.

UNVOTE; VOTE: Unsight

More in a bit.

[Thor665]

CSL - at what point did Mac's claim become believable to you? I looked at your iso and didn't really see the shift at any point. In fact you sort of seemed to be coasting and requesting that the day should end rather then deliberating on Mac's claim - thoughts?

[RichardGHP]

Unsight is good.

Vote: Unsight

CSL, Thor: Do you have an opinion on what team Unsight is on?

[CSL]

I have no opinion of what team he's on. It's one less anti-town around.

[diddin]

The speed that Unsight wagon grew is slightly unnerving. I would not argue with an Unsight lynch but Macavatar is still a better option for me.

I did however discover another possibility for town-Macavatar besides Ben jailing him. A Greyjoy-Aligned Roleblocker, if one exists, have done either. I am gonna trust my gut here though.

[Mina]

UNSIGHT IS AT L-1. NO ONE HAMMER YET.

Um...

WTF

?

How did everyone go from "Let's lynch Macavitar NOW, so hurry up and let me hammer, dammit!" to "Yeah, Macavitar is obviously town."

I swear, I think people are unvoting him because they liked his

fakeclaim

(which, OT, was hilarious).

What I love is that I was rabidly anti-Macavitar when Cow first revealed and a few people had doubts. And then when Macavitar's lynch looked inevitable, I started freaking out that he might be innocent. And now that all of a sudden, he's no longer the vote leader, I'm paranoid that I've been played. I'm spinning in circles of WIFOM.

I don't like an Unsight lynch. For one thing, I've never been sold on him as scum (although if he's town, then he's played badly). But for another, I'd rather lynch a likely Greyjoy if we're going to buck the Macavitar lynch. I'm still wondering if he'd be an okay information lynch because the evidence implying that he isn't a Greyjoy is pretty circumstantial (whereas CSL--unless someone would like to argue that he'd have killed Mikujin as scum--MacavityLock, and diddin are all cleared of being on at least one team, which might be important in endgame).

===============================

Thor, why did you have a scumread on Macavitar before? I'm asking this because part of what made me uneasy was that I couldn't pin anything on Mac based on his behaviour alone (other than a couple of throwaway comments). And maybe I was grateful to have someone else see the light on MagnaofIllusion.

Mac is in that annoying zone wherein he's giving reasonable answers that are within the realm of possibility for town, but still not obvtown. (Because no, he couldn't have left breadcrumbs, or claimed to have a confirmable role AFTER HE WAS SUGGESTED AS AN INVESTIGATION TARGET. And I just remembered something that kind of makes me want to lynch him again. His antitown and cowardly "boohoo, if I asked for Brienne to nameclaim, people might accuse me of

role-fishing

...and I might even be

voted for

!" coming from a player who knows how to defend himself and has a

confirmable protown role

.) I don't think he'd act that differently were he scum.

Also, I hate hate hate hate HATE comments like "Well, if he's scum, then he deserves the win, because he did something that only a smart scum player would do." Smart players get scum role PMs too, damn it!

The best point in his favour is that he reacted so quickly with

flavour

for his role PM. But personally, I don't think his claim was

that

unlikely for scum--I think mason-hunter is the kind of "fake"-confirmable, certain-not-to-be-countered role scum might come up with in a pinch, and unlike what Mac said, I personally think Brienne was very likely to appear in the game, so claiming it would have been reasonable as an act of desperation. Also, a one-sided mason-hunter whose target doesn't have anything in his role PM suggesting he can be found? Clearly, the Renly-Loras connection was mutual.

============================

Damn it, I had stuff I wanted to do, and a contest deadline tomorrow. And now I'll have to waste all day tomorrow on analysis, because I'll be working from Monday to Thursday and won't have time for Mafia before the deadline. It looks like the game might turn on me making a half-decent MagnaofIllusion case (although I don't know if it would turn

for the better

, judging by my track record).

I want to vote for MagnaofIllusion (both because he could fit as a member of either scum team and because his post have really, REALLY made me itch today) or Macavitar, but now I'm getting nightmares of a repeat of yesterday's quicklynch out of nowhere. I'd rather do the research before voting.

===========================

CSL is ridiculous. He doesn't seem to think like a normal human being. There's so much blatant cognitive dissonance there ("I'm voting Z even though I said before that I suspect X and Y more! No one ever ever hammer without express consent from Mina or I'll lynch you the next day...hey, QUICKHAMMER ON SOMEONE UNCLAIMED A WEEK BEFORE THE DEADLINE! Hurry up and lynch Mac already...vote Unsight, because I believe Mac's claim.") Questioning him on suspects doesn't work, because he doesn't have actual reasons for suspecting anyone.

If someone knows any trick of discerning Town!CSL from Scum!CSL, please share it.

============================

diddin...so wait. If you were forced to lynch anyone other than Macavitar today, would Unsight be your first choice?

The Greyjoys having a roleblocker AND a watcher is broken (although the set-up in the mini was kind of broken as well). Also, the roleblocker should have been on Locke that night unless they foolishly gambled on the WIFOM of the Lannisters also having a blocker.

[Thor665]

How did everyone go from "Let's lynch Macavitar NOW, so hurry up and let me hammer, dammit!" to "Yeah, Macavitar is obviously town."

Because I changed my mind and because Richard and CSL are sheep or scum in some combination.

What I love is that I was rabidly anti-Macavitar when Cow first revealed and a few people had doubts. And then when Macavitar's lynch looked inevitable, I started freaking out that he might be innocent. And now that all of a sudden, he's no longer the vote leader, I'm paranoid that I've been played. I'm spinning in circles of WIFOM.

Yes, probably all the town players are - we get it. Move on please.

Thor, why did you have a scumread on Macavitar before?

Gut. Sorry, but that's the extent of the case. I'll note that, as I even said when I made the vote, it's not like I have that much more of a brilliant 'case' on Unsight. I used to go through the effort of making big cases, now I just go on gut and tells that I can point out at the time - I've (sadly) discovered that repetition and confidence actually makes cases better then evidence and examples. I'm, unfortunately, not high on confidence right now, so I'm mostly trying to get people talking till I can spot something to glom onto.

Also, I hate hate hate hate HATE comments like "Well, if he's scum, then he deserves the win, because he did something that only a smart scum player would do." Smart players get scum role PMs too, damn it!

Actually, I think my message was that the claim was so clever that he deserves the win - the inference being it was clever because it convinced me I didn't want to vote for him.

Also, Mina, I understand your frustration but just listen to your overall commentary, it reads like this; "Oh, I can't believe we're not going to lynch Mac because he may be scum, but he may not - I'm confused. I have a town read on Unsight but Unsight has been playing a terrible town game. CSL is hard to read, he's having cognitive dissonance - is that a scumtell for him? I'm not sure!"

You also appear to really want an MoI lynch but aren't even voting him yourself yet, allow me to quote you briefly - WTF?

[Thor665]

Oh, by the way, I'm now as confident as hasdsapfo that Mina is town.

CSL
Unsight
Mac
MoI

^^^
In no particular order - today's lynch is one of these players, that's a 50/50 to get it right from my perspective. I'm of a lower opinion o CSL now with his vote shift - the thing is with no scumbuddies left I'm not sure it's the same sort of scumtell since CSLscum would be in the same 'shot in the dark' concept as the rest of town. I'm neutral on the MoI lynch because I have had a town read there all game - my gut reads have been pretty good this game, but invariably some of them are wrong - so I guess I'll wait for the Mina case to see if it happens to mention anything that excites me to the idea. I'm still leaning towards a belief that Mac is town at this stage, I disagree with Mina about how "safe" the mason-esque role is and will note that he had to clear a coupe of logic hurdles to even make the claim as functional as it is at the moment. Other then that I've got nothing.

We need more Richard and has in this thread. And by that I mean actual opinions, not Richard's usual modus operandi thus far.

[diddin]

unvote

As much as I would like to lynch Mac today, if we lynch Greyjoy scum, Mac can confirm himself as town or scum by targeting has again assuming neither he or has is killed at night. Opinions on this idea?

I prefer Magna as a Greyjoy lynch to Unsight personally.

[Thor665]

I'm okay with the plan, though I think we know how it will end no matter which alignment Mac is.

Any particular reason you prefer MoI?

[diddin]

Mainly for his D1 fencesitting with Raivann. Not to mention I find no reason to breadcrumb a vanilla townie unless you're scum who wants to back up a fakeclaim. Overall the case on him seems a bit more... solid than the one on Unsight.

Macavatar, MoI, Unsight are the order of players by how confident I am that they are scum. However like I said before I would prefer to lynch a Greyjoy today.

VOTE: Magna

[CSL]

CSL is ridiculous. He doesn't seem to think like a normal human being.

That's because I'm autistic. You have a problem with that?

[Macavitar]

I did however discover another possibility for town-Macavatar besides Ben jailing him. A Greyjoy-Aligned Roleblocker, if one exists, have done either.

I brought this possibility up before, but I definitely think that Benmage JKing me is the more likely scenario.

CSL
Unsight
Mac
MoI

^^^
In no particular order - today's lynch is one of these players, that's a 50/50 to get it right from my perspective.

What about diddin as possible Lannister?

Still prefer Magna over Unsight.

[Macavitar]

ITT things get awkward.

[CSL]

Oh, by the way, I'm now as confident as hasdsapfo that Mina is town.

This.

[Thor665]

What about diddin as possible Lannister?

Is there a case for him besides the name claim? I think the name claim alone suggests he's town.

[Macavitar]

What about diddin as possible Lannister?

Is there a case for him besides the name claim? I think the name claim alone suggests he's town.

Other than the flavor fact that Sandor worked for the Lannisters, I think his reaction to the info that came out against me was very much the reaction of someone who was quite pleased that someone else was going to get pinched for his crimes. I do agree that the fact that he didn't give a fake name when called out by Locke is a point in his favor.

Just saying, I don't think your 50/50 is right here.

[Thor665]

I still think the diddin case is largely the name claim - if we're going to lynch on claims and investigation results I'd choose to lynch you over diddin. He's not on the option block today to my mind regardless of what percentages you think are or are not correct from the choices that are up there..

[Macavitar]

Yes, I can understand why you wouldn't be interested in lynching diddin today. Again, my point was about your calling that set of 4 a 50/50, which I strongly disagree with.

[Thor665]

...okay...? So other then a quibble with my conclusion and/or math skills is this going somewhere?

[Macavitar]

As long as you understand the consequences of your conclusions, I guess not.