A Clash of Kings - A Divided Kingdom

[Thor665]

If all of you could have only helped me by acting really townish if you were town I'd be having a much easier time of it

[Unsight]

I'm at L-1. We have a confirmed scum to lynch and instead you put the VT at L-1.

What the hell is wrong with you people?

[Thor665]

I'm willing to advance the concept that I believe you are lying about being VT - it's a crazy concept but I think Mafia do it occasionally.

Where do you think votes should be instead and why?

[Unsight]

Where do you think votes should be instead and why?

Is there something confusing about my position that makes you ask this or have you just not bothered to read any of my posts?

Macavitar - He's totally busted. His explanation boils down to that he just happened to be visiting the victim on the night of his death. I don't buy that at all.

- Macavitar is the last Lannister. He was found targeting Mikujin (Greyjoy) so he can only be Lannister.

Mina is the last Greyjoy

This is incredibly false, for reasons that may become obvious in the future. If Mina's anything, she's Lannister.

- Cow is getting played like a cheap harmonica.

Look, here's the deal.

You called Macavitar out and he needs to claim something believable fast. Since we had a namecop die and you asked for a claim, it's pretty much certain you're a "weak information role" or, at very least, not a cop. That gives him enough wiggle room to say "he probably saw me target Mikujin" and go from there. He uses his knowledge of flavor to claim something crazy and garnishes it heavily with flavor. You drop the "you fell for my trap card" post and he falls back to "oh well I must have been roleblocked." I don't believe that for a second and neither should anyone here.

Now going from there, we're almost definitely at 7 town, 1 Lannister, and 1 Greyjoy. If we lynch Macavitar, we'll be at 6 town + 1 Greyjoy tomorrow. The last Greyjoy needs to survive for 3 days in this scenario. With so many people practically confirmed town, those are horrendously bad odds--they border on auto-town win. However, if we mislynch today then it becomes 4-1-1 tomorrow. The Macavitar lynch will look just as good and we'll end up at 3-1 and LYLO on the following day. That means the Greyjoy needs only fight for their life on 1 day. I say all that to say this: the Greyjoy has gotta gotta gotta keep Macavitar alive. With that in mind, there are two people doing that right now: Mina and MagnaOfIllusion.

One of those two is our last Greyjoy. MagnaOfIllusion called out Axelrod and Mikujin as the Greyjoy yesterday. It seems like terrifically bad form to paint a bullseye on your last remaining partner while lynching the other one suspect because the following day he has to face questions like "Why aren't you going after Miku, he's your last Greyjoy suspect right?" Meanwhile, reading Mina's ISO shows her defending other Greyjoy scum time and time again. She defends every single Greyjoy at one time or another (as I show in my post with links). MagnaOfIllusion has the scumhunting ability of a jelly donut and I'd love to lynch him, but there's more evidence against Mina by far. Unless you have role-confirmed iron-clad belief that Mina is 100% triple-A confirmed town, go read those links above.

That middle paragraph is the key worry because not lynching him basically trades a town lynch for a scum kill which puts the last Greyjoy scum in ideal position as end game (assuming I get lynched today) will probably look like Mina, MagnaOfIllusion, and CSL. That is scary to me because I think MagnaOfIllusion and Mina could each be the last Greyjoy so having them both alive at LYLO is bad for the town. Conversely, if we lynch Macavitar (getting rid of the Lannister faction), we get 3 lynches to find the last Greyjoy which is almost an auto-town-win.

That is 100% pro-town logic. We can play by the numbers and win this as long as people are not idiots.

[Thor665]

Except your logic holds equally true if I were to change out all occurrences of Macavitar in that second paragraph and replace them with Unsight. The logic is predicated on Mac being scum, and I'm not sure I agree with that anymore.

Aren't you going to explain to me how I obviously need to believe your VT claim also? That sort of seemed to be part of your defense earlier and I'm still confused as to why, are you advancing a defense based on PR ratio in the game or do you believe scum never claim VT or something?

[Unsight]

Except your logic holds equally true if I were to change out all occurrences of Macavitar in that second paragraph and replace them with Unsight. The logic is predicated on Mac being scum, and I'm not sure I agree with that anymore.

We have a PR who linked Mac to a kill. My logic relies on Mac being scum because he obviously is.

Aren't you going to explain to me how I obviously need to believe your VT claim also? That sort of seemed to be part of your defense earlier and I'm still confused as to why, are you advancing a defense based on PR ratio in the game or do you believe scum never claim VT or something?

I have an ISO filled with 100% pro-town posts. If people don't see that by now then I'm sure one more post isn't going to make the magic light bulb of realization appear. The best I can do is work toward putting the town in a position where a mislynch doesn't cost us the game. I'm not advancing a defense, I'm saying "let's lynch the scum."

[diddin]

Except your logic holds equally true if I were to change out all occurrences of Macavitar in that second paragraph and replace them with Unsight. The logic is predicated on Mac being scum, and I'm not sure I agree with that anymore.

We have a PR who linked Mac to a kill. My logic relies on Mac being scum because he obviously is.

Aren't you going to explain to me how I obviously need to believe your VT claim also? That sort of seemed to be part of your defense earlier and I'm still confused as to why, are you advancing a defense based on PR ratio in the game or do you believe scum never claim VT or something?

I have an ISO filled with 100% pro-town posts. If people don't see that by now then I'm sure one more post isn't going to make the magic light bulb of realization appear. The best I can do is work toward putting the town in a position where a mislynch doesn't cost us the game. I'm not advancing a defense, I'm saying "let's lynch the scum."

Somebody's arrogant, aren't they?

[Faraday]

See below.

[Eddard Stark]

Vote count 5.8 - The "See with your eyes" votecount.

Macavitar (1) -

Unsight

Unsight (4) -

MagnaofIllusion, Thor665, CSL, RIchardGHP

MagnaofIllusion (2) -

Macavitar, diddin

Not voting (2) - Mina, hasdgfas

With 9 alive it takes 5 lynch.
Deadline will hit on the 18th of September @ 6pm ES(D?)T.

[Mina]

On my phone now during my lunch break, so no time for a big post. I did start ISO-ing Magna last night, and admittedly, I'm no longer confident in my suspicions. I'll at least try to answer posts from today I didn't get around to before.

Could someone remove his vote from Unsight? I'd rather not leave Mac in a position where he can hammer an end the day at any time.

CSL is ridiculous. He doesn't seem to think like a normal human being.

That's because I'm autistic. You have a problem with that?

...oh,

fuck

.

I am so, so sorry. I meant because of the cognitive dissonance, since your flip on Mac came out of nowhere...

Goddamn it. I need to stop putting my foot in my mouth.

[Mina]

Also, Mina, I understand your frustration but just listen to your overall commentary, it reads like this; "Oh, I can't believe we're not going to lynch Mac because he may be scum, but he may not - I'm confused. I have a town read on Unsight but Unsight has been playing a terrible town game. CSL is hard to read, he's having cognitive dissonance - is that a scumtell for him? I'm not sure!"

You also appear to really want an MoI lynch but aren't even voting him yourself yet, allow me to quote you briefly - WTF?

Yeah. Pretty much.

I also might not want to lynch Magna. But he's scummy. So you should all vote for him. But you shouldn't vote at all, because I don't want anyone put at L-1. But maybe we should lynch Unsight instead. Even though I think he's town. Or maybe he isn't.

Did I make myself clear?

What I find hilarious is that you followed that post with "Mina is obviously town."

[Thor665]

Could someone remove his vote from Unsight? I'd rather not leave Mac in a position where he can hammer an end the day at any time.

I see people make these requests so often - I have yet to see scum come leaping in to pounce on the ready wagon like a dog on a pork chop.

I'll humor the request, however, I just had to be difficult about it.

Unvote: Unsight

[MagnaofIllusion]

Is there a case for him besides the name claim? I think the name claim alone suggests he's town.

I’ll point you here .

The speed that Unsight wagon grew is slightly unnerving. I would not argue with an Unsight lynch but Macavatar is still a better option for me.

How is this even a valid concern in the endgame when both scum teams are down to 1 member? There can’t be a concerted effort by scum to work together. Are you stating that both remaning scum suddenly jumped onto Unsight?

Given your concerns who of those who moved to Unsight in that 2 RL day period is likely scum in your eyes – Thor, CSL or Richard?

I prefer Magna as a Greyjoy lynch to Unsight personally.

Despite your slapped together ‘opinion’ that you don’t bother to support I’ll just chalk this up to the fact that I’ve been stating I think you are likely scum for several days.

No, my point is that people should look out for people acting weird, weirder than scum would normally act. In this game, the scum clearly had the ability and desire to scumhunt for those of the opposing scum team. Right now, they probably no longer do, and probably want to specifically hunt town as opposed to just anybody not on their scumteam. And that's something that people can keep an eye out for.

So you would suggest that everyone look for people acting weird and that scum trying to lynch Town is weird?

If you want to address that you think my suspicions that Unsight and diddin / Mina are scum is suddenly a new position please do so. Otherwise you are throwing around generalities. I also find the unspoken assumption that I am hunting Town by not suspecting you is not a thought process I would expect to be coming from Town. Now you are making me paranoid about my read on you.

Yes, I have a problem with you saying that you were willing to out-right call something a fake claim because of the structure of a role PM in a different game. Either it's using bad logic to call someone obv-scum, or you knew it was a flawed question at the time and you asked a question just to say that you were scumhunting, and have to cover for it now. And I don't like either of those things.

I disagree strongly that GMs don’t have tendancies and consistencies to the way they handle mechanics in their games. I want to go back and look at your reaction to how DripHyrda played Day 1. Because your statement that using bad logic to call someone obv-scum would seem to indicate that their Day 1 antics would draw your ire.

Re-read on Unsight coming tomorrow.

[Thor665]

RE: diddin case; You offered up some self arguments against your case even as you made it - and it seemed to predicate on him changing a scum meta or somesuch. I'm pretty 'meh' on that case. I'd rather lynch CSL or Unsight over diddin.

I still think Magna looks pretty town.

I still think hasdsoptelkm and Richard should kindly show up and actually say something. I am going to have to rethink that "has/Thor/Richard best budz 4evah!" tattoo on my left inner thigh now.

[hasdgfas]

aaaaagh, how have I forgotten about this game?
Sorry everyone, I've been sick, and school is killing me, and this game is really starting to make my head hurt.

Right now, I don't know who I want to lynch, and it's really frustrating me.

Mina/Richard/Thor/me are right out.

Macavitar is someone I'm leaning against lynching today. But I don't know who the best choice of the others is.
This may be blasphemy, but I'm going to do the math on no lynch and see if it's an option.

CSL is ridiculous. He doesn't seem to think like a normal human being.

That's because I'm autistic. You have a problem with that?

No offense CSL, but quite frankly, I don't care. I treat every player the same in mafia, regardless of any mental conditions they may have. Whether it means taking RL notes to keep your thoughts straight or whatever, do something so you can't use autism as an excuse. To me, it's like any other AtE in a mafia game. Scummy. (I don't want this discussion to take over the game, so unless you have something game-related to say about this, leave it until post-game).

in summary: Don't use your mental condition as a crutch, overcome it as best as you can, because everyone is treated the same in mafia.

[CSL]

Not using it as a crutch.

[Eddard Stark]

Mod ~ Let's let this conversation drop shall we? CSL has never asked for special consideration. He was simply responding to Mina's comment to say that he has a (completely unsubstantiated, but that's the way of the internet) condition that explains her read. Each player is free to make up their own minds as to whether and how it should be considered. But discussing the merits of it is a recipe for disaster.

Edit ~ Just to clarify, this is not a reprimand of anybody who has posted in this space. I'm just looking to avoid escalation.

[hasdgfas]

Ok, this is going to look very messy, but I did some number crunching on NL versus lynch.
=========================================
no lynch

9 alive
2 deaths
---------------
7 alive
5/1/1
or
6/1
or
7/0(WIN)

6/1 is 3 days to find the last scum.


5/1/1 leads to
either a town lynch, so 4/1/1
or 5/1(leads to 4/1, and two days to find the last scum)
-------------
from 4/1/1

either 2/1/1(BAD), 3/1(NL, then 3-person endgame), 4/0(WIN)

============================================================

if we lynch town:
8 alive
2 deaths
-----------
6 alive
4/1/1
or
5/1
or 6/0(WIN)

5/1 = NL + 2 days

from 4/1/1
town lynch: 3/1/1
scum lynch: 4/1
NIGHT:
3/1/1 -> 1/1/1(VERY BAD), 2/1(3-person endgame), 3/0(WIN)

if we lynch scum:
8 alive
1 death
------------
6/1, so 3 days to find the last scum.
===========================================================

(Can anyone besides me understand what's going on here? Or is this too "out there"?)

Anyway, it looks to me like No Lynch has the least chance of hurting us, because we have the best chance of having the most time to find the remaining scum.

[CSL]

Hascow, that is the best idea I have heard this Day.

Unvote; Vote: No Lynch

[Thor665]

My opinion is that there are too many "pro town" players left to accept much likelihood of scum cross killing, our best hope is to have scum both target the same pro town player. I think that not taking that into account is skewing your results to suggest no lynch as more beneficial then it really is.

With that in mind odds are that;
no lynch = 5/1/1 or maybe 6/1/1
lynch town = 4/1/1 or maybe 5/1/1
lynch scum = 6/1

So lynching today gives us both a worst and best case of available scenarios.
I don't see how risk of a possible 4/1/1 is worth it for the relatively assured gain of a 5/1/1.

To my mind scum are just going to kill players we won't be lynching in any case, so why not lynch and hope we get it right? Unless we actually think scum will do us a favor and kill from the suspect pool...which I don't.

[hasdgfas]

our best hope is to have scum both target the same pro town player. I think that not taking that into account is skewing your results to suggest no lynch as more beneficial then it really is.

right, that is an option. I totally forgot about that. hmmmmmmm. Maybe lynching someone is the best idea, but I just don't know who the best option is.

[Thor665]

Mina, Richard, you and myself are definitely off the board in my mind.
diddin and Mac are both in 'interesting claim' territory.

If diddin is scum he was willing to admit his actual role name - which seems ballsy for scum to do
If Mac is scum he was willing and able to quickly contrive an odd claim instead of using the pre-built mod fakeclaim - which seems ballsy.

MoI is in a gut town read pool.

Unsight and CSL are in my likely suspects pool.

It feels too 'easy' if both CSL and Unsight are the scum. I'll admit on re-read that Unsight didn't quite scream scum to me but I'm really not sure how I feel about that as decent players do become scum. Conversely CSL is pretty bad, but bad players are town. MoI is all gut from me, so I could just be really wrong there but I've never felt any of the mega cases on him.

I'd rather lynch CSL or Unsight over diddin or Mac.

I'd rather lynch diddin over Mac.

I'd probably be willing to lynch MoI but I'd need to hear some sort of evidence to win me over.

What are your thoughts?

@Mina
@Richard

Feel free to chime in here - I'd rather have the four of us decide then count on the rest of them.

[hasdgfas]

Honestly, I think I want to lynch CSL, not necessarily for his play, but because he's such a wild card, and I have no idea what I think of him.

[Unsight]

Honestly, I think I want to lynch CSL, not necessarily for his play, but because he's such a wild card, and I have no idea what I think of him.

CSL is absolutely the wrong lynch for today and I'll explain why.

CSL is a heavily suspected player. He is more likely to be lynched than a good portion of people. This means that the more lynches the town gets, the worse his odds of surviving are. Despite this, he jumped on the Macavitar wagon right away. Not only did he jump on the wagon fast but, unlike Mina, he also stuck with it for a long time. As scum, this is the absolute worst thing he could probably do because without the other scum faction he's basically up the creek without a paddle. Whatever town points he might gain from being on the wagon of Macavitar wouldn't keep him alive through 3 lynches to win at end game.

The only lynch that makes sense today is Macavitar.

[Unsight]

(Can anyone besides me understand what's going on here? Or is this too "out there"?)

Anyway, it looks to me like No Lynch has the least chance of hurting us, because we have the best chance of having the most time to find the remaining scum.

No lynch would be a better option... if it weren't for the fact that we have you placing Macavitar at the scene of a kill. Really, the only thing better evidence-wise than that is a Cop investigation.

In this situation, all No Lynch is doing is taking one lynch away from the town and giving it to the scum. You're basically saying "Instead of the town lynching Macavitar, we're going to No Lynch and let him shoot someone tonight."