Last Will Mafia II (Over)

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Count

Super Smash Bros. Fan (7) - Amished, Ythan, Chronopie, Xite91
animorpherv1 (6) - Jahudo, rhinox, Super Smash Bros. Fan
Battosuai (3) - animorpherv1, kmd4390
Ythan (2) - Battosuai, Charlie
Charlie (2) - Plum, Locke Lamora
Plum (1) - esuriospirius
Xite91 (1) - nachomamma8

Not Voting (1) - holycon

animorpherv1 is being replaced, this will not extend deadline

[Kmd4390]

Xite, plum is town because of the wagon on raider.

I "won't share" the tell on holy because I don't remember it.

I'm not suspecting you based on personality. Its more based on your voting record. The "frustrating" thing is more how I was going back and forth in my head before the VCA TM.

Meh, difference of opinion. I see chro's consistency as a town tell.

Lol. Not responding to 5 because its the worst strawman I have seen in my entire mafia career.

[Kmd4390]

Amished, it can be summarized that way, but its more specific than that.

-----

Esurio, be careful not to fall into the trap of thinking that everyone who contributes regularly is town. This is rarely true and will continue to burn you until you learn otherwise. Yes, I removed my town reads because I have strong town reads for once. If everyone would like me to, I can put them back in for everyone else's sake, but I won't suspect them based on the results.

If rhinox is town, I don't see it changing my suspicions unless he gets lynched and leaves behind a nice wagon to analyze.

[Amished]

@KMD: Ok, so then is there a specific other reason that you chose Batt over Rhinox out of your red names especially after

If Rhinox is scum, so is Amished. I'd look for one orange next. Basically, his buddies will be spread pretty evenly on this list. I'm not very good at guessing how many scum there are, but yeah. That's how it'll work. Amished being the only "town/idk" isn't a point in his favor if Rhinox is scum.

Rhinox scum means:
Scum-Amished, Locke, nacho or chro, Smash Bras or Animorph, Ythan, Batt, or Xite.

Most likely Amished, Locke, Batt, and Smash Bras. Nacho if there is another.

where it looks like you're gaining more information from a Rhinox-scum flip than a Batt-scum flip if all things are equal otherwise.

Essentially: Why did you decide on Batt over Rhinox?

[Super Smash Bros. Fan]

Will post more tomorrow since I don't have time to make a big post, but this caught my attention

Jesus Christ you guys haven't said shit lately.

This quote is ironic to me. Amished is claiming that we haven't said anything lately (Which I disagree with, there is always something to comment on and people making useful posts) yet as of this post, he hasn't really done that much scum hunting today.

[Amished]

Will post more tomorrow since I don't have time to make a big post, but this caught my attention

Jesus Christ you guys haven't said shit lately.

This quote is ironic to me. Amished is claiming that we haven't said anything lately (Which I disagree with, there is always something to comment on and people making useful posts) yet as of this post, he hasn't really done that much scum hunting today.

So... am I scummy for this? How is this a useful post at this point since there's absolutely no analysis combined with it?

[Battousai]

Will post more tomorrow since I don't have time to make a big post, but this caught my attention

Jesus Christ you guys haven't said shit lately.

This quote is ironic to me. Amished is claiming that we haven't said anything lately (Which I disagree with, there is always something to comment on and people making useful posts) yet as of this post, he hasn't really done that much scum hunting today.

So... am I scummy for this? How is this a useful post at this point since there's absolutely no analysis combined with it?

Kind of agreeing here. SSBF's post seems to be from a scum stance. It is understandable for Amished not to have contributed much, since, you know, he was prodded... But when he came back he has started making points and so forth, but you zero in on this.

@KMD- Anyone else you are not sure of that I can suspect so you will think they are town?

[Ythan]

Unfortunately, Fan is still obvscum.

[Kmd4390]

Amished, I'm more confident of my read on batt than on rhinox.

-------

Batt, nope. Doesn't work once you are aware. Also, sarcasm when being attacked often comes from scum. Just sayin'.

[Kmd4390]

Ythan, wanna put those votes to use and help me lynch batt?

Smash bras, what is your opinion of batt?

[Kmd4390]

Rhinox, why is batt town?

[Amished]

@KMD: Fair enough. Wanna put those votes to use and help us lynch SSBF while you're at it?

[Ythan]

Batt is not obvscum like Fan. He's not good but he's not as bad as at least one other player.

[Jahudo]

@Jahudo: Please link me (or explain) your case on whomever you think is scummiest, I'm blanking on where you actually stand this game other than against Xite's case on SSBF.

Ta-da:

Vote: animorph

- I don't like how he complained the day was not over when he still wasn't voting. It suggests he thinks there's a good decision but he won't be responsible for it.

I also find it hard to believe he thought Batt cult claimed for as long as he did. He just ignored the logic that a cult couldn't win this early and kept his vote on Batt.
His CSL and Ythan votes don't make sense as to why he thought each person was scum for his reasons, and his Richard vote never had a reason.
His softclaim didn't make sense from a town standpoint. I don't know why he'd reveal a power role just to say he had it.
Other than that he didn't do much in the game. Some non-game related posts and some lurking.

Its not much compared to the encyclopedia of SSBF tells out there, but I cannot in good faith sign off on SSBF when it looks like most of the points are so far reaching that they make him look town more often than scum.

I guess I'll look for an alternative now that he's getting replaced though.

[Kmd4390]

Meh. Smash bras isn't a terrible choice. Not the best though.

[Kmd4390]

I forgot that being replaced is a town tell.

[Xite91]

@Xite: Have you read Raider/Plum and SSBF in back-to-back iso together? You said you were suspicious of both of them. Do you think they make more sense as part of a scumteam together, or do you think one is probably town if the other is scum?

Haven't yet (didn't even think of it) but that's a good idea, I'll get on that in a bit.

Xite, plum is town because of the wagon on raider.

I "won't share" the tell on holy because I don't remember it.

I'm not suspecting you based on personality. Its more based on your voting record. The "frustrating" thing is more how I was going back and forth in my head before the VCA TM.

Meh, difference of opinion. I see chro's consistency as a town tell.

Lol. Not responding to 5 because its the worst strawman I have seen in my entire mafia career.

1) Since when does a wagon on someone make them town? Especially when we've had no scum flips?
2) Well then go back and find it, because otherwise it's not valid and probably wasn't in the first place.
3)

I don't like your inability to take a solid stance. Its just not you. We even talked about this after firefly mafia. You decide what your opinion is, latch on, and refuse to believe anything else is right.

I don't like your inability to take a solid stance. Its just not you. We even talked about this after firefly mafia. You decide what your opinion is, latch on, and refuse to believe anything else is right.

First, I have changed a lot about my playstyle since I started playing IRL, so you really can't meta me for what happened about a year ago.
Second, if you

really

are hellbent on using that as my meta, I'm pretty sure I have taken a stance. I have been pushing for SSBF for at least two days (have to go back and check exactly how long). Also, I have my other opinions on who's scum, and have pointed them out, I'm just too goddamn lazy to make cases on each one. And I refuse to believe he's town, so uh... yeah, it's still me, just a much more toned down version of me

Xite, its more a personality thing than specifically a mafia playstyle.

And its not your opinion of smash bras that I'm concerned with. Its richard and now ythan.

What was that?
4) Eh, it can also be a cautious scum-tell which is why it's null to me.
5) This was my 5

5) Yes, your READS are allowed to be biased, but when you're giving us INFORMATION, it should not be biased. You should include EVERYONE in those brackets that "belong" there, including your town reads, because, hey, your town reads can be wrong. You are not the mod, and therefore you do not know everyone's roles. Also, I don't need town points. I do what I do based off of my reads, I don't give a shit what others think is townie or not, if you think I'm scum, tell everyone WHY without biased INFORMATION and then, if it's convincing, people might even follow you, then get me lynched based on how I've played and not based on who I am. kthnxbai

Point out the strawman. I don't see it AT ALL.
Also, read below

@KMD: Rhinox and Pitt both gave me strong gut town vibes in the early game. I'm slightly more ambivalent about Battousai but until he does something obv scummy I am sticking with my early gut read. Interestingly this gives me much more reason to be suspicious of Locke if otherwise your scumset brackets are correct, since he's in one with Rhinox and another with both myself and Rhinox. That is a really big 'if' though, because you took people out of the brackets you felt were obvtown

before

doing the final analysis. I'm sure you're not right about people 100% of the time, even when you think someone dropped a really good tell, so removing those people beforehand kind of damages the integrity of the analysis imo. :/ I mean, if someone just happens to be awesome at fooling you, you're ignoring the kind of empirical evidence that would cause you to open your eyes.

Sound familiar?

Batt, nope. Doesn't work once you are aware.

Also, sarcasm when being attacked often comes from scum.

Just sayin'.

You've got a lot to learn too.

Ythan, wanna put those votes to use and help me lynch batt?

Smash bras, what is your opinion of batt?

why tybalt and SSBF? Kind of an odd choice if you look at suspicion levels...

[Locke Lamora]

Unvote: Vote: SSBF

Last post is point-scoring off Amished.

[Amished]

@Jahudo: Please link me (or explain) your case on whomever you think is scummiest, I'm blanking on where you actually stand this game other than against Xite's case on SSBF.

Ta-da:

Vote: animorph

- I don't like how he complained the day was not over when he still wasn't voting. It suggests he thinks there's a good decision but he won't be responsible for it.

I also find it hard to believe he thought Batt cult claimed for as long as he did. He just ignored the logic that a cult couldn't win this early and kept his vote on Batt.
His CSL and Ythan votes don't make sense as to why he thought each person was scum for his reasons, and his Richard vote never had a reason.
His softclaim didn't make sense from a town standpoint. I don't know why he'd reveal a power role just to say he had it.
Other than that he didn't do much in the game. Some non-game related posts and some lurking.

Its not much compared to the encyclopedia of SSBF tells out there, but I cannot in good faith sign off on SSBF when it looks like most of the points are so far reaching that they make him look town more often than scum.

I guess I'll look for an alternative now that he's getting replaced though.

I see all this and ... I just don't understand you.

What you've said looks to me like Ani essentially just doesn't give a shit about this game. I don't know how it's a scumtell, which makes it even harder to believe that you're attacking Ani in good faith since you're defending SSBF for largely the same stated reasons.

(In case that was convoluted: From your case, it looks like Ani doesn't give a shit. That's not a scumtell really. You've said that you won't vote SSBF when he doesn't look scummy from much of what's presented against him; which is my exact stance on your "case" against Ani. There's a cognitive dissonance here where you're "objective" with SSBF but you can't be with Ani from my POV, and I don't understand where it comes from)

Then the look for an alternative (like KMD pointed out) since he's getting replaced? That doesn't really fly either if you believed in your case at all.

@Xite: learn to be more concise. You're turning into Mastin, and that's not a good thing.

[Jahudo]

I didn't say or imply that Ani didn't give a shit, though I guess its possible with tells like lack of scumhunting or the softclaim. And I didn't say I was second guessing my vote. The simple truth is that he didn't become a huge wagon before he replaced out, so its hard to strengthen a case on someone that can't respond to questions from people still on the fence about him.

Whatever. Let's just find out who this guy is already. I hope to be proven wrong.

unvote;
Vote SSBF

[Kmd4390]

Plum - Raider's wagon earlier made him town or something. Can't remember specifics but I remember deciding that him and CSL were town.

Plum - I had the same feeling that Raider was town, but it was more that VI feeling. Plum, however, is a different character. Read her based on her play.

Xite, plum is town because of the wagon on raider.

1) Since when does a wagon on someone make them town? Especially when we've had no scum flips?

So the first time I said it, you agreed with my reasoning, but not my conclusuion. The second time, you attack my reasoning. Why?

To 2, I'll try, but I doubt I'll see the exact same thing.

Ok, I can't find it.

To 3, yeah, that's what was frustrating and making you hard to read.

To 4, like I said, difference of opinion. I don't see how that is cauitious.

Your strawman...
Let me break it down:
A) I gave my reads
B) I said they were biased because they were reads
C) You say I gave information, not reads (not true)
D) You say giving information the way I did (I didn't) is scummy.
E) You say only the mod can give information like that (I agree), so I'm scummy for trying to
F) You say I'm trying to get you lynched for your personality (no, I was frustrated trying to figure you out. I'd like you lynched because of the VCA TM)

I chose Smash Bras and Ythan (and Rhinox in the next post) because they have multiple votes and I want them to look closer at Batt. When you suspect a player, you try to get them lynched. When you are trying to get someone lynched, the best players to get help from are those with multiple votes.

----------------------

Jahudo, how was Animorph not a wagon? Look at the last vote count.

[Jahudo]

Ack, I had my deadlines mixed up.

unvote;
Vote: Ani

[Kmd4390]

Ack, I had my deadlines mixed up.

unvote;
Vote: Ani

No majority at deadline isn't a no lynch anyway. It's person with the most votes, unless it's a tie, in which case we no lynch.

[Charlie]

Okay, let's try to get some serious stuff done here now. First, I'll answer questions then I'll chip in with something that has been on my mind lately.

Charlie, what is your opinion of Locke?

He doesn't seem to have a wide suspect list, and he's been on my case for quite a while IIRC. I'm not very sure what to make of it, but I'm confident that there are better people to than Locke.

Based on feel, here's everyone:
Ythan - town
Batt - town
xite - town
kmd - town
charlie - idk
locke - idk
Jahudo - town
esurio - town
plum - idk
Amished - town/idk
nacho - idk/scum
SSBF - scum
chrono - idk/scum
holy - idk/scum
ani - scum

Goody, a simple list! Not too bad actually, they have good matches with my own and kmd's. I hope that we can come to a consensus easier with discussion.

The obvtown

Charlie - Everything he has done is so town it's scary. I probably won't vote him at all in this game
Plum - Raider's wagon earlier made him town or something. Can't remember specifics but I remember deciding that him and CSL were town.
holycon - Pinged a town tell early. I don't remember what, but I remember it was strong.

Regarding Plum: I think I need to hear those specifics, coz I'm getting a mafia read from Plum...
Regarding holycon: I kind of agree, but would not say holycon is

obviously

town. I'm leaning probtown for the stuff he said early on sounding like good intentions, only poorly worded some parts. It was non-specific but enough to get by a town read.

The ones who I don't feel comfortable calling town

Amished - I remember even the quickest glance at vote counts had me screaming scum.
Xite91 - The second most frustrating living player in this game.
Locke - Pinged my scumdar for something that it doesn't benefit the town to share.
animorpherv1 - Not only the "wait, he's in this game?" player, but quick glances at vote counts don't look good. Wouldn't stand in the way of his lynch at all.

Good posting...had me thinking a bit.

The ones with multiple votes

Rhinox - I haven't been agreeing with a lot of what he says. Hard to say exactly what that means.
Super Smash Bros. Fan - My opinion of him has been going Town->Scum throughout the game. Not my top suspect, but shouldn't have all the votes he does.
Ythan - This scum needs to die ASAP so we can get those votes back into town's hands. Hell, even if I'm wrong and he's town, let's get the votes to someone useful.

Yeah, this is where the unique aspect of the game comes in... I feel that mafia members will try to buddy up those with multiple votes if they are indeed town. I feel it is worth looking into this.
Regarding Ythan: A well warranted emotional response. 'nuff said.

Charlie ... I need to look over again cause I have a hard time reading people like him. I think the most damning point against him in my eyes is that while scummy, he hasn't really gotten close to a lynch. Somebody like that typically gets lynched as town so it's possible that scum are deflecting away from their scumbuddy. Ok, these last 5 pages make me want to shoot Charlie.

Can you condense this into a shorter sentence? What are you trying to say, exactly?

@Xite: learn to be more concise. You're turning into Mastin, and that's not a good thing.

This is funny because of what I just said in my last sentence.

Whatever. Let's just find out who this guy is already. I hope to be proven wrong.

Hey! I'm already doing that "hope to be proven wrong" thing. Get your own reason (I'm joking btw).
Interestingly, I think the red panda is getting more and more town looking but am not sure why... This can't be good.

-----------

Content generation from these people are excellent and should be referred back again:
Kmd4390 (everything)
Battousai (vote count spreadsheet)
esuriospiritus (breakdown analysis of wagons)
Rhinox (said that there is a lot of useless thing happening and this rings true; goodposting)
Jahudo (red panda)

So I'm not in favour of lynching any of the above Today...

Let's look at the shady individuals:
Nachomamma8 (Not doing town stuff, based off past game)
Ythan (Probably town, but still a good lynch. Yes.)
Plum (General shadiness)
Super Smash Bros. Fan (My own read is null, I can sheep others on this one)
animorpherv1 (Lurking IS a scumtell. No qualms lynching a lurker)

Gonna separate my post here for neatness.

[Charlie]

Um, Kmd4390 is right about Xite91 behaving suspiciously. Her posting of late is way to defensive for my liking. Sounds like she has got something to hide. Quite a good lynch actually.

Let's make use of that spreadsheet:
1) Nacho slot and Plum slot never once voted on the same person. Can be attributed to early distancing.
2) Xite91's voting style is anomalous. Problem is, she's not the only one...

And that's basically all I can use because:

1) There is too much shenanigans going on what with the dictating of things to make proper use of this data.
2) The data is incomplete. D1 data isn't enough.

-----------

Combining suspect lists of the following people: Kmd4390, Rhinox, Battousai, esuriospiritus and MichelSablehart:

Kmd ISO #113: Xite and Animorph, Rhinox and Batt, Ythan, Smash Bras, Locke.
Rhinox ISO #72: nacho - idk/scum, SSBF - scum, chrono - idk/scum, holy - idk/scum, ani - scum
Battousai ISO #41, #43: Ythan and SSBF. Jahudo, chrono, magua, Locke, and ani.
esuriospiritus has 3 separate sets for different reasons, ISO #15:

[animorpherv1, chronopie, Jahudo, Locke Lamora, Nachomamma8, SSBF, Ythan]
[Ythan, SSBF, Amished, Charlie, kmd4390, holycon, animorpherv1, Battousai]
[Amished, animorpherv1, Locke Lamora, Chronopie, Plum, Xite91]

MichelSablehart's suspect list, ISO #4: Super Smash Bros. Fan, Xite, Ythan, (esuriospiritus) Magua, kmd, Charlie

I conclude that SSBF and animorpherv1 are the most likely lynch today. Between these two, I'd rather much lynch the lurkish animorpherv1.

A side note: Look at Battousai's ISO #44 and see how much it contradicts the earlier ISO #41. That's a bit strange.