Mini 1023 - City Watch Mafia - Game Over!

[FakeGod]

@Thor: I don't find them mutually exclusive as you say. Because if you truly believed that mod isn't going to confirm town only, then by process of elimination, your next target would be the next-mod-confirmed player. I'm not saying because you're holding stance A, you can't do stance B. I'm saying if you're holding stance A, then this is the next logical step I can derive from your logic, yet seeing you indecisive and unwilling to commit to your own reasoning, and that definitely spells trouble.

And no, I don't have other games where I smokescreen for others. Looking at how it turned out for this game, it's not gonna happen again either.

Unvote

I admit that I was bit....premature in my voting. I was bit scared that there might be an accidental no lynch today, looking at how inactive people were posting few days ago. But since people are becoming much more active suddenly, I don't have any problem unvoting and using our time to the fullest.

VOTE COUNT

TheButtonmen (2): Narsis, Chronopie
FakeGod (2): Budja, jimfinn
Budja (1): Plum
jimfinn (1): VasudeVa

Not Voting (3): TheButtonmen, Thor665, FakeGod

With 9 alive, 5 is needed to lynch.
Deadline is Friday 17th.

[Thor665]

Because if you truly believed that mod isn't going to confirm town only, then by process of elimination, your next target would be the next-mod-confirmed player.

I'm not saying the player who gets a day power *has* to be scum, I'm saying he *could* be scum. There is nothing in my logic that would obligate me to vote for a player simply because he gets the day power. What are you even talking about here?

[FakeGod]

I hate repeating just as much as you do, but I'll lay it out again.

I'm not saying the player who gets a day power *has* to be scum, I'm saying he *could* be scum. There is nothing in my logic that would obligate me to vote for a player simply because he gets the day power. What are you even talking about here?

You said you still believe that mod confirms not only town but scum as well, even if I were to flip VT.

This means you believe that among the mod-confirmed players (Mysterio, VV, me, New-mod-confirmed-player), there is a scum.

Mysterio and I were VT, and VV claimed Vimes and caught us a scum.

By process of elimination, the last player in question (the new-mod-confirmed-player)

has

to be scum, according to your beliefs.


Is there anything wrong with my deduction?

[Thor665]

Just because your belief system is hardline (they *have* to be town) doesn't mean mine is (they *could* be scum or town). Your insistence to the contrary is where we're having the disconnect and your obtuseness when I've already said as much is preventing your understanding. This debate is going nowhere fast and has already arrived - feel free to draw what conclusions you will and to try to convince whoever you wish, I'm done with it.

@Button - I agree with your assessment of FG but will add the modifier; VV caught scum. That's a hefty distinction. Also, what do you think of FG's brand new invented strategy to try for the first time this game wherein he tries to make a case on a player he thinks is town with a power role?

@VV what's the case on jimfinn again? (I'm willing to search isos if you know who made it and don't want to retype, I'm just not willing to search the thread)

[jimfinn]

Your initial claim made me not want to lynch you today, FG. Your use of your power after it was generally agreed that it was anti-town to do so, however, feels very scummy. My vote remains on you.

[Budja]

@Thor, posts like this are why jimfinn is suss ^. He's a big sheep.
(but FG is proving to be a better lynch.)

@FG, your use of the word confirm is wrong. The mod show that powers are being given out to players. We don't know the criteria or even if the mod is the one doing it. All we know is getting a power mean you get a power, no more.

[Chronopie]

You said you still believe that mod confirms not only town but scum as well, even if I were to flip VT.

This means you believe that among the mod-confirmed players (Mysterio, VV, me, New-mod-confirmed-player), there is a scum.

Mysterio and I were VT, and VV claimed Vimes and caught us a scum.

By process of elimination, the last player in question (the new-mod-confirmed-player) has to be scum, according to your beliefs.

Is there anything wrong with my deduction?

What's bugging me is how FG is overextending this 'logic' of his, to say that Mod Day power #4 MUST be scum.

He assumes that

his

being 'town' is a forgone conclusion for

everybody

, thus pushing a lynch on tomorrows player

by default

.

UNVOTE: TBM
VOTE: FakeGod

[FakeGod]

@Thor: Backing out? You understand that I made a serious accusation to you (that you are lying/not convinced of your own stance). You can't just say our opinions differ, when you never pointed out where in my accusation was wrong.

My Logic:

Fact 1: Thor says he believes that mod is confirming scum as well as town.

Fact 2: Thor says he will still believe that mod is confirming scum as well as town even if I were to flip VT.

Therefore, Thor believes that there is at least one scum among the 4 people (Mysterio, VV, me, New-Mod-Confirmed Player).

But Mysterio and I am VT, and VV has claimed Vimes and has caught us a scum.

Therefore, New-Mod-Confirmed Player is scum.

All I'm asking you to do is point out where in my logic that I'm wrong and tell me why.

I really don't think I'm asking for much here, and we don't have time for your evade and avoid maneuvers.


@jim: one of the things I learned this game is that anti-town DOESN'T NECESSARILY MEAN scum. (examine my faulty case on VV that ended up cracked open in half), plus you're using what essentially are lame excuses to label someone "town" and "scum". (o I believe his claim, he's legit town. o wait nevermind, he going around using voteblock). Can you say

Active Lurking

?


@Budja: I already said to Thor (who can confirm me) that when I say "mod-confirm" I mean that mod has announced that I exist. (with a 1 day power). I never said that "mod-confirmed" = automatic-town-status. And I don't even know what you mean when you say that mod might not be the one who's doing it. Who else would it be? I mean, mod's the one who created the whole setup, so of course he's going to be the one behind the power-handout-to-VT mechanism.

unvote, vote FG

Vote + power use show strong survival instinct.

I could see a townie trying to persuade Thor, but removing his vote? That bugs me.

Your reasons behind your vote are terrible. You are essentially are doing the same thing jim is doing, sheeping and active lurking.


Preview: Another sheeping lurker jumps in with a FG vote! (and guys, if this isn't the epitome of sheeping lurker play, I don't know what is)

Chronopie claims that I am "overextending my logic", but the whole point of my chain of deduction was to show the Thor really doesn't believe in what he's saying. I have already asked Thor to answer to my questions as if I have been lynched and flipped VT. Feel free to point out what you think is wrong in my logic above, Chronopie.

[Plum]

@Thor: Backing out? You understand that I made a serious accusation to you (that you are lying/not convinced of your own stance). You can't just say our opinions differ, when you never pointed out where in my accusation was wrong.

My Logic:

Fact 1: Thor says he believes that mod is confirming scum as well as town.

Fact 2: Thor says he will still believe that mod is confirming scum as well as town even if I were to flip VT.

Therefore, Thor believes that there is at least one scum among the 4 people (Mysterio, VV, me, New-Mod-Confirmed Player).

But Mysterio and I am VT, and VV has claimed Vimes and has caught us a scum.

Therefore, New-Mod-Confirmed Player is scum.

All I'm asking you to do is point out where in my logic that I'm wrong and tell me why.

I really don't think I'm asking for much here, and we don't have time for your evade and avoid maneuvers.

Uh, no.

For example, what if the Mod throws a die every day to see which player is getting which predetermined one-day-only power (presumably he designed the powers so that however it fell out the game would remain approximately as balanced)? Then any Day we might be getting a Townie 'confirmed' or a scumbag 'confirmed'. Just because we happen to get Town hit with them a few Days in a row would in hat very plausible case have no bearing whatsoever on the alignment of the player chosen to get a temporary power the next Day, d'ya see?

In any case, Thor doesn't say a thing about Mod giving powers to scum as well as Town meaning 'by Day 4 scum must get a power'. It's a conjecture on your part. There's nothing indicating

Thor

believes that.

VOTE: FakeGod

Meant to do this in my last post.

[Budja]

@Fakegod, its hard for me to be sheeping I was the first one to point it out. Also my case just fine, if compact. Plum said it better than me, you are more concerned with survival than scum-hunting.

[FakeGod]

@Plum: Are you aware that even in your hypothetical setup I would be right. If Thor

truly believes

that mod is picking scum as well as town, and if we assume your hypothetical dice setup, then Thor would vote the last Mod-Confirmed-Player. It's simple probabilities. Assuming there are 3 scum out of 12 people, what's the chance that mod picks 4 people, and there are

no scum

in the picked people?

It comes out to be 14/55 or around 25.45%. (9 choose 4 over 12 choose 4) Therefore, chance that there will be at least 1 scum among the 4 picked is around 75.45%. (and by process of elimination which I pointed out above, it will be the last Mod-Confirmed-Player)

If I really believed in a theory that says that chance of this one player being scum is around 75.45%, you bet my vote would be on that person right away, and I mean

right away

.


In fact, to all of you voting me, your vote on me means that you believe in Thor's theory, that mod isn't confirming town only. Confirm this in your next post.


@Budja: I noticed you keep mentioning that I'm trying to survive. I don't understand how that could be a tell. Scum would try to survive, and so would town.

[jimfinn]

Post 710 is a serious statistical fail. The chance of the one player being chosen Day 4 in this scenario to be scum (assuming no scum are lynched D3 or killed N3) is 2/7 = 28%, not 75%. The chance of scum being chosen on any individual day is simply scum remaining over total remaining. You cannot assume that the previous choice of town has any impact on future choices. This is the Gambler's Fallacy.

[Plum]

@Plum: Are you aware that even in your hypothetical setup I would be right. If Thor

truly believes

that mod is picking scum as well as town, and if we assume your hypothetical dice setup, then Thor would vote the last Mod-Confirmed-Player. It's simple probabilities. Assuming there are 3 scum out of 12 people, what's the chance that mod picks 4 people, and there are

no scum

in the picked people?

It comes out to be 14/55 or around 25.45%. (9 choose 4 over 12 choose 4) Therefore, chance that there will be at least 1 scum among the 4 picked is around 75.45%. (and by process of elimination which I pointed out above, it will be the last Mod-Confirmed-Player)

If I really believed in a theory that says that chance of this one player being scum is around 75.45%, you bet my vote would be on that person right away, and I mean

right away

.

You don't understand How Probability Works. Each event resolves independently of the others. Day 1, assuming 3/12 scum, there's a %25 chance a scumbag gets a power. Assume Town lynch, Town kill as we have here, the next Day we have 3/10 scumbags, or a %30 chance of scum getting powered. Now add a scum lynch and no kill as we had last cycle. Today we'd have a 2/9 chance of scum getting powered, or about %22 chance. Assume Town lynch, Town kill tonight, tomorrow we're at 2/7 scumbags which is a bit under a %29 chance of scum getting powered. As a matter of fact, each Day it's considerably more likely that Town get powered than scum. Now that you say this, it may be that you're acting this way partly because you Have No Clue How Probability Works.

I confirm that I believe the Mod isn't powering only Townies with Day-powers. Um, wasn't that obvious?

jimfinn is way ahead of me on probability theory but here more explanation within reason is probably fine.

[Budja]

^^ Gambler's Fallacy is exactly what FG is doing.

[Plum]

Yeah, but the question is does it exonerate him in any way or not?

[Budja]

If I thought it did, I would have unvoted.

[Thor665]

For my two cents; I dunno. He seems really convicted and usually I'd tend to suspect a slight bit of appeasement from scum - though that's a rough tell to use. But the possibility is there for newb town who doesn't understand the scumtells he's blundering into. Take for example how he keeps calling me out for "not answering his question" when I quite blatantly did - twice. That's sort of weird any way you cut it. I think it's mostly a lot of newbie energy sloshing around which is always a pain to wade through.
His Button vote/unvote reasons were all really weird.
His stated plan about making a case on VV in order to "protect" him is terribad and very scummy, I have a hard time believing even a newb would think this was a good idea. Mafia 101 - don't try to lynch town. They still teach that, right?

I don't feel as confident on him as I did before, but I don't want to lynch Button today and I'm pretty lukewarm on the jimfin case. To my mind it's jimfinn or FG at this point unless somebody has noticed something I'm totally missing. I probably owe it to myself to glance over jimfinn again as I know I went and cleared him Day 1 for some reason (a wagon run on him I believe) and I really haven't considered him much since then. Should have time to do this tomorrow and will report back with exciting findings (or just eat pecan pie, flip a coin and pretend like I do )

[VasudeVa]

I just noticed this in my reread but, Tasky's last big post has a huge parroty case on FG(And Chrono). I don't think that him Tasky would make a case on his scumbuddy, especially since there was some heat on FG during that time(I was calling him obvscum etc.), also Tasky wouldn't make such a huge case on his scumbuddy. This logic also works on Chrono, since Chrono was the leading wagon on Tasky's return.

FG's recent waddling reminds me of myself when I'm town with a heavy wagon. I have a bad feeling that he's Town and he's being genuine. + I agree with the auto-clearing of Town with Powers every day. However, it's not as imbalanced as you people make it seem. There was a chance that Town won't figure that out, but we did so it's cool.

I really think that jimfinn is the better lynch right about now. I really dislike his last votehop.

----
@FakeGod: Did you honest to god see my breadcrumb and STILL proceeded to make a huge case on me? Or were you just bluffing as Town? That's one of the big reasons why Thor wants you dead(and was the big reason I called you obvscum D2.)

[VasudeVa]

I just noticed this in my reread but, Tasky's last big post has a huge parroty case on FG(And Chrono). I don't think that him Tasky would make a case on his scumbuddy, especially since there was some heat on FG during that time(I was calling him obvscum etc.),

also Tasky wouldn't make such a huge case on his scumbuddy.

This logic also works on Chrono, since Chrono was the leading wagon on Tasky's return.

Hellooo redundancy. Bye, redudancy.

Note to self: Re-check your posts properly goddamnit.

[Thor665]

I have a bad feeling that he's Town and he's being genuine. + I agree with the auto-clearing of Town with Powers every day. However, it's not as imbalanced as you people make it seem. There was a chance that Town won't figure that out, but we did so it's cool.

I'm toying with the idea of FG being misguided town.
I'm so against the idea that the powers will only go to vanilla town it's hard to describe. I'll use an emoticon instead. I may have used the wrong emoticon.

@FakeGod: Did you honest to god see my breadcrumb and STILL proceeded to make a huge case on me? Or were you just bluffing as Town? That's one of the big reasons why Thor wants you dead(and was the big reason I called you obvscum D2.)

Good posting.
Though he has already proudly admitted this on multiple occasions.

@Button - how does your FG/VV scum team feel at the moment? Is the above by VV more likely concerned town or coaching buddy. I tend to be against coaching buddy simply because I always hear it touted as a scumtell and I don't think I've ever seen an example of it ever. Thoughts?

[VasudeVa]

Thor, what do you think of jimfinn?

Actually, it's best to just ignore that argument(Vanilla Town clearing etc.), and proceed to lynching normally. However, I do think that he's not scum with Tasky(via my reasoning in #717). I'm a little disappointed that few people are looking for connections, especially since we've had a scumflip yesterDay.

I'm actually pretty lukewarm to the jimfinn case myself... but my analysis of Tasky's ISO makes me think FG is Town(And thus, me slightly agreeing with the autoclearing of Town every day etc. etc.).

[Thor665]

VV - stop trying to swing me onto Button's belief system, I really don't need the stress today.

As far as the jimfinn wagon I already commented on this;

"To my mind it's jimfinn or FG at this point unless somebody has noticed something I'm totally missing. I probably owe it to myself to glance over jimfinn again as I know I went and cleared him Day 1 for some reason (a wagon run on him I believe) and I really haven't considered him much since then. Should have time to do this tomorrow and will report back with exciting findings (or just eat pecan pie, flip a coin and pretend like I do )"

I'll get around to it - I'm honestly putting it off because I stopped having fun re-reading games after about five months of playing. It usually just puts me into WIFOM insanity and that's not a good place to be.

[Plum]

My gut has been muttering to me for ages 'look at Budja' but I don't know why. I'm in school and have Psych questions to type up, but someday. We'll see. I'll look at VV's analysis of FG not being a likely Tasky buddy but am inclined to believe that he notied something legitimate, given that he noticed it and whatnot.

[Thor665]

Budja's a conversation for tomorrow, in my opinion. If you figure out what's twigging you please post it though.

@VV - if you're lukewarm on the jimfinn wagon who would you rather we lynch if you're buying into my thoughts on TBM?

[VasudeVa]

Lukewarm is the most probable feeling on deadline lynches. Don't most deadline lynches give you a lukewarm feeling?

I'm okay with lynching jimfinn.