/in-vitational Game 8 - Nito City (over) after 1015

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #600 (ISO) » Sat Sep 18, 2010 1:57 pm

Now that we have another scum flip I want to revist my previous VC analysis and update for the new information.

Please don't end the Day early today - yesterday had a good result but we once again allowed scum to self-hammer and possibly protect their last partner.

I probably will not be able to do my full analysis until Monday so please don't end the day early. Feel free to put anyone at L-1 (since there are no partners left to protect) but don't hammer them.

Incognito · Post Post #601 (ISO) » Sat Sep 18, 2010 3:01 pm

Vote Count #1 of Day 5

Zajnet (1) <-~ Jack

Not voting (5) <-~ farside22, Locke Lamora, MagnaofIllusion, Porochaz, Zajnet

6 living; 4 will do it.

Deadline:

Saturday, October 2nd at 5:30 P.M. EST

Jack · Post Post #602 (ISO) » Sat Sep 18, 2010 3:03 pm

Zajnet wrote:That assures what, that the kill will be blocked? That I'm scum? That Erg0 is scum?

Explain your thinking here please Zajnet.

Zajnet · Post Post #603 (ISO) » Sun Sep 19, 2010 7:50 am

Jack wrote:
Zajnet wrote:That assures what, that the kill will be blocked? That I'm scum? That Erg0 is scum?
Explain your thinking here please Zajnet.

I didn't know what she was referring to when she said the she had role information assuring

that

.

Jack · Post Post #604 (ISO) » Sun Sep 19, 2010 10:45 am

Why did you think it was possible that she had role information insuring that you were scum?

Zajnet · Post Post #605 (ISO) » Sun Sep 19, 2010 12:19 pm

I was asking what she was saying because it wasn't clear. If she blocked me and the scum chose a no-kill, she would think that she had role information that I was scum.

Jack · Post Post #606 (ISO) » Sun Sep 19, 2010 12:41 pm

Why would scum have chosen to no kill?

Zajnet · Post Post #607 (ISO) » Sun Sep 19, 2010 2:01 pm

I'm not saying they would have. But I am saying that it is possible that she would think she had role information ensuring that I'm scum when I'm actually not.

Jack · Post Post #608 (ISO) » Sun Sep 19, 2010 4:32 pm

How is it remotely likely?

Zajnet · Post Post #609 (ISO) » Sun Sep 19, 2010 5:44 pm

It isn't, but its possible. I wanted to cover every possible base in my questioning of her.

Locke Lamora · Post Post #610 (ISO) » Sun Sep 19, 2010 9:07 pm

Zajnet: why would you think that Sotty's vote on Erg0 and claim of information meant anything other than Erg0 being scum? Why did you ask about yourself when, as far as I can see, Sotty makes no mention of you?

Erg0 was heavily pushing Sando as a Jack buddy if Jack flipped scum, definitely arguing for him over Zajnet, but he does maintain suspicion on both Sando and Zajnet with Jack as the 'common denominator' in their scumteams. A brief summary of his reads in his conclusion post:

Strong Town - Sotty
Town - Farside, Magna
Null - Porochaz
Mild Scum - Locke, Sando
Strong scum - Jack, Zajnet

He is the second vote on the Jack wagon when Sando is at L-2 and doesn't move his vote after that. His vote comes not long after Magna has made a detailed case on Jack and laid his vote down there. He makes several references to either Sando or Zajnet being possible buddies for Jack, which does lend weight to Jack-scum with Erg0 keeping a choice of targets open in case of Jack's death. That said, it would be quite a strong bus to make Jack a more viable wagon at a stage when Sando was looking like the lynch.

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #611 (ISO) » Mon Sep 20, 2010 3:04 am

Here's the revised Day 1 and 2 raw vote data.

Spoiler: Day 1

Spoiler: Day 2

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #612 (ISO) » Mon Sep 20, 2010 3:25 am

Here are the Raw Day 3 Vote Counts –

Spoiler: Day 3

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #613 (ISO) » Mon Sep 20, 2010 3:59 am

Day 1 and 2 Revisited –

Erg0’s flip solidifies my opinion that scum split themselves on the dueling Day 1 wagons between Charlie and myself.

Charlie

(3) <-~

Erg0

, MagnaofIllusion,

Sotty7

MagnaofIllusion (5) <-~

vollkan

, Jack,

JasonT1981

, Zajnet, farside22

Charlie

(4) <-~

Erg0

, MagnaofIllusion,

Sotty7

, farside22
MagnaofIllusion (4) <-~ Jack,

JasonT1981

, Zajnet,

Charlie

(5) <-~

Erg0

, MagnaofIllusion,

Sotty7

, farside22,

Sando

MagnaofIllusion (4) <-~ Jack,

JasonT1981

, Zajnet,

Charlie

(4) <-~

Erg0

, MagnaofIllusion, farside22,

Sando

MagnaofIllusion (3) <-~ Jack, Zajnet,

Charlie

Those of unknown alignment on my peak wagon – Jack, Zajnet, farside

Those of unknown alignment on Charlie’s peak wagon - farside

It is possible that the third scum avoided both peak Day 1 wagons. Those players of unknown alignment are Locke and poro.

Final

Charlie

Wagon and other votes –

Charlie

(7) <-~

Erg0

, MagnaofIllusion, farside22,

Sando

,

JasonT1981

,

Sotty7

, Zajnet
MagnaofIllusion (2) <-~

Charlie

, Jack
Jack (1) <-~

vollkan

Zajnet (2) <-~ Porochaz, Locke Lamora

Jason’s Day 2 Wagon as it built

JasonT1981

(1) <-~

Sotty7

JasonT1981

(2) <-~

Sotty7

, MagnaofIllusion

JasonT1981

(3) <-~

Sotty7

, MagnaofIllusion, farside22

JasonT1981

(4) <-~

Sotty7

, MagnaofIllusion, farside22,

vollkan

JasonT1981

(5) <-~

Sotty7

, MagnaofIllusion, farside22,

vollkan

, Jack

JasonT1981

(6) <-~

Sotty7

, MagnaofIllusion, farside22,

vollkan

, Zajnet,

JasonT1981

Those not on Jason at lynch -

Jack (1) <-~

Erg0

vollkan

(1) <-~

Sando

Zajnet (1) <-~ Jack

Not voting (2) <-~ Locke Lamora, Porochaz

Erg0 being revealed on the final Charlie wagon for me clears farside of being scum. It seems highly unlikely that all three scum would be on the wagon for any significant amount of time Day 1. The only unknown play who might make sense as the third scum on Charlie’s final wagon is Zajnet.

Thus Jack, Porochaz and Locke all bear scrutiny based on their position off the wagon at the end of the day.

Budding Counterwagons –

Zajnet (2) <-~ farside22, Jack

Jack (2) <-~

Erg0

,

Sando

vollkan

(2) <-~

Sando

,

JasonT1981

Regarding the potential budding counterwagons to Jason –

The only one without 100% confirmed alignment was on Zajnet, with both farside and Jack on it. I’ve already assessed that farside looks clear based on the final Charlie wagon so Jack would be the only one worth reviewing based on the counterwagon.

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #614 (ISO) » Mon Sep 20, 2010 4:28 am

Day 3 Analysis –

Part 1 – Erg0’s behavior

Erg0’s vote doesn’t come until the fourth vote-count of the day. The first three vote counts were

Zajnet (1) <-~ Jack

Erg0

(1) <-~

Sotty7

Zajnet (2) <-~ Jack, MagnaofIllusion

Sando

(3) <-~ Porochaz, Locke Lamora,

Sotty7

Porochaz (1) <-~

Sando

Zajnet (2) <-~ Jack, MagnaofIllusion

Sando

(3) <-~ Porochaz, Locke Lamora,

Sotty7

Locke Lamora (1) <-~

Sando

When Erg0 does vote it is for Jack. Things I think are important to draw from this information.

1. Despite being a strong early wagon on a Town player Erg0 refused to jump on the Sando wagon despite indicating suspicion of Sando.
2. Zajnet was a viable counterwagon to Sando over these vote-counts and yet Erg0 also doesn’t vote for him.
3. When Erg0 does vote it is for Jack.

What can be drawn from this? With two remaining scum I feel it is less likely that Erg0 was bussing Jack. It’s not out of the question but seems less likely. Erg0’s behaviour leads me to believe more strongly that either his partner was already on the Sando wagon early (which would be either Porochaz or Locke) or is Zajnet (who he didn’t vote for despite listing him as a Top Tier scum candidate as Locke displayed above).

Part 2 – Final Wagon on Sando

Sando

(5) <-~ Porochaz, Locke Lamora,

Sotty7

, Jack, farside22
Jack (4) <-~

Erg0

, Zajnet,

Sando

, MagnaofIllusion

Zajnet’s position on the final wagon leads me to think that final scum is in the unknowns on Sando’s wagon. For the reasons I’ve stated above I think farside is clear so that leaves Poro, Locke and Jack. Based on the thought process above regarding Jack being a less likely partner Locke or Poro are the best candidates for the last scum.

Lastly Locke and Poro once again were ‘protected’ from having to vote on the Erg0 wagon by Erg0’s self-vote as they were by Jason’s self-vote.

Incognito · Post Post #615 (ISO) » Mon Sep 20, 2010 3:40 pm

Porochaz has been prodded.

Porochaz · Post Post #616 (ISO) » Mon Sep 20, 2010 3:40 pm

Have I? I dont need it if your away too.

Incognito · Post Post #617 (ISO) » Mon Sep 20, 2010 3:43 pm

Porochaz wrote:Have I? I dont need it if your away too.

Just sent. I'm not away...

Porochaz · Post Post #618 (ISO) » Mon Sep 20, 2010 4:01 pm

a way even sorry.

Anyway onto my vote, Im not sure how to play this, and Id like to apologise for my conduct during this game, in that I never got into it and I should have replaced out. I understand that this is an in-vitational and those of you who did request to play with me probably didnt expect this from me having either played with me before or seen me in other games.

The best way to play this in my eyes is partially to view the confirmed scums posts and partially to go on gut. I went through everyones iso in the end and my reading came up the same, the playstyle is too inconsistent for me, and I was wary about doing it before because I didn't think it was enough, the confirmed scum particularly erg0 and friends with farside is interesting. However in the end its mainly gut.

vote farside

Locke Lamora · Post Post #619 (ISO) » Mon Sep 20, 2010 9:06 pm

I still don't think Porochaz is scum. It just doesn't feel like scum play. At the moment I feel like it's Jack or Zajnet, but I'm going to reread and see how everyone fits in with Erg0's flip.

Porochaz · Post Post #620 (ISO) » Mon Sep 20, 2010 10:14 pm

I thank you for your faith in me, but to be honest Im going to go out on an existential limb here, why? I haven't done anything to warrant your belief that Im town and whilst I would prefer you didn't lynch me, you haven't really said why.

Locke Lamora · Post Post #621 (ISO) » Mon Sep 20, 2010 10:17 pm

You just seem to be a mixture of indifference and frustration at that indifference. It feels like a townie struggling to get into the game, if that makes any sense.

Porochaz · Post Post #622 (ISO) » Mon Sep 20, 2010 10:32 pm

I notice that you, Erg0 and Jason have a nice contrast when it comes to Jack in that both of them voted Jack one for very minimal reasons and the other pushed him quite hard. However scum have focused a lot of attention on him, as have you, the exception is, despite being more vocal about him than Jason, you have yet to put a vote or even a fos down on him.

I also want to know, although I doubt you'll be able to answer, the purpose (now Im looking into it) of the emphasis in iso 25.

Locke Lamora · Post Post #623 (ISO) » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:08 pm

I was deciding between Jack and Sando on D3, and Sando was my preferred lynch, for obvious reasons. As for an FOS, I just never use them.

The italics? I found that despite the fact Sando was listing one of his buddies high on his scumlist and voting for them, he was actually barely interacting with them. The emphasis was to indicate that even in situations where he did bus a buddy, you'd think he would have a higher level of interaction with someone he claimed to be a top suspect but he still displayed very little tendency towards directly interacting with them, whether in the form of questioning, accusations or even simple discussion.

Porochaz · Post Post #624 (ISO) » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:27 pm

Hmm I wrote several versions of my voting farside post, one of which explained other slight reads I had, within that I was going to ask for a town/scum game from MoI, it might be worth having a look at some games of farside as well?

I feel like Im starting to get a hook on this game now, which is useless in the closing stages. It should be pointed out Im fairly confident of Jack being town at this moment as well.

Locke, you've explained day 3, what about earlier on?