/Invitational 11: Pick your Poison 5 (Game Over)

[DrippingGoofball]

...AND I INVOKED THE NAME OF GEARS OF WAR.

HERE WE GO

[Ellibereth]

THIS RIGHT FATE?
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 9&start=25

NOW I see what you're seeing.
Just have to choose between Plum and ooba now...
Which has bigger wagon?

[Ellibereth]

Oh damn, they're both equal with no wagon on them.

[Ellibereth]

VOTE: OOBA

FOS: PLUM

[Kmd4390]

Plumpom is definitely a better lynch than ooba. Even though mith is a better lynch than either.

[SpyreX]

@Rhinox: You're letting oobas ISO #2 hold you back? Good god man theres nothing remotely town in that post don't overthink your damn self

THERE IS A REASON FOR THAT.

IT WILL BE APPARENT IF CLEARING THE CHAFF LEADS TO SWEET DIAMONDS.

Mmm, diamonds.

(Yes I'm aware thats to Rhinox)

(Its still true)

[Rhinox]

well, if I can't get a spyrex lynch, and he and ellibereth are both voting ooba (ellibereth choosing to vote ooba over plum when both VC's were equal), no way I can support an ooba lynch based on that alone.

UNVOTE: spyrex
VOTE: plumpom

but would anyone be down for an ellibereth lynch instead?

[DrippingGoofball]

Huzzah!

[DrippingGoofball]

but would anyone be down for an ellibereth lynch instead?

No distractions please.

[Fate]

Lol DGB this is like a fucking race.

THESE TWO WAGONS RIGHT HERE WILL BE THE GARDEN OF WAGON ANAYSIS FILLED WITH FRESH GOODNESS.

PICK A SIDE EVERYYYYYYYODY

[mith]

My level of interest in this game appears to be inversely proportional to the number of capitalized letters. (Seriously, people, the shouty look-at-me posting style is quite annoying to read. Cut it out.)

DGB: I'd like you to explain a few things, pretty please.

1. What is the reasoning behind your ranking system in this game? For example: Why did you choose the vote counts you chose, what is the rationale behind X scum being on each wagon, etc.?
2. How does the system you've used here compare to previous games? For example: The ranking here appears to focus more on those off wagons, only uses end-of-day vote counts, and has a different scoring system. Why the changes?
3. Explain the inconsistencies in the total scores, vs. the wagons posted. For example: It seems clear that you've given Rhinox 3 points for the Hoopla wagon, the ooba wagon, and the zoraster wagon. It's not so clear where Kmd's points come from.

Ok, the NyQuil I took is starting to kick in. More when I'm awake again.

[DrippingGoofball]

1. What is the reasoning behind your ranking system in this game? For example: Why did you choose the vote counts you chose, what is the rationale behind X scum being on each wagon, etc.?

I like a clear wagon happening, a few middling wagons are much harder to interpret.

2. How does the system you've used here compare to previous games? For example: The ranking here appears to focus more on those off wagons, only uses end-of-day vote counts, and has a different scoring system. Why the changes?

The whole premise of the wagon analysis is that scum doesn't put all their eggs in the same basket. HOWEVER, I'm coming to the realization that scum is more likely to be on the leading wagon, to an extent that looking at off-wagon players is less informative than concentrating on on-wagon players. Also, looking at both, I end up with the situation that P{scum-on-wagon} + P{scum-off-wagon} = 1 so looking at both, the information cancels out. But with the premise that there is more scum on-wagon rather than off-wagon (say, P{scum-on-wagon} = 0,6 and P{scum-off-wagon} = 0,4 - looking on-wagon is more effective.

3. Explain the inconsistencies in the total scores, vs. the wagons posted. For example: It seems clear that you've given Rhinox 3 points for the Hoopla wagon, the ooba wagon, and the zoraster wagon. It's not so clear where Kmd's points come from.

KMD shouldn't be there, actually, I started out adding up his points, then I realized, ah, yeah, he's confirmed town, and I forgot to erase his name and the points.

[ooba]

K ooba I'll play ball. LAST TIME you mentioned my slot (eKim) with regards to a read was your d1: "luuuuuuuulz d0 scumhuntinnn" and calling this slot SCUM.

Those posts weren't commenting on? Besides being fresh new stuff from a player your are "GLAD TO SEE" its a slot you APPARENTLY haven't given much thought, AND one that calls you scum with the need to dangle.

None of those posts stood out for anything significant - if they did, I'd have commented on it ..

I've seen ISO 8 before in a Reck mini theme with ooba scum. It was a well done list, and I gave him a town pass D1 (then died N1). BUT HE RAN OUT OF STEAM AND HIS TOWNNESS GOES ALL DOWNHILL FROM THERE. NOT THAT IT WAS ALL THAT TOWN TO BEGIN WITH BC SCUMHUNTING OFF D0 PLAY ACTIVITY=EASY PEEZY....

Nonsense .. The only reason Ythan voted me over the other person at endgame was due to flavor based reasons ..

---

Believed that yesterday based on

my end of day skim

.. But do not think that is the case now .. Why mention this now?

OK, do you have any intention of elaborating on why you

used to

think a DGB/mith pairing was remotely plausible?

Their move to the zoras lynch ..

[HackerHuck]

I'm still plodding along with my read, but I've got a few questions I might as well ask right now. I briefly skimmed the first 15 pages, so I'm sure I missed some of these answers.

Hoopla's gambit. Who actually thinks she might have been scum?

Did anyone claim Hider? I know DGB did, but rescinded it

Any town claims besides KMD's tracker claim?

[Kmd4390]

Hoopla's gambit. Who actually thinks she might have been scum?

I think Fate was the only one to suggest this. I'm basically ignoring the chance that she was scum because worst-case being wrong there is that we think we are in LYLO a day sooner than we actually are, meaning we are allowed an extra mislynch.

Did anyone claim Hider? I know DGB did, but rescinded it

No.

Any town claims besides KMD's tracker claim?

Not from anyone who is still alive.

[Rhinox]

hmmmm...

Hoopla Gambit revealed page 30 linky

DGB hider claim page 11 yeah ok. linky

Any town claims guess could be referring to at any point in the game so page is irrelevant.


So only your second question makes any sense at all - and maybe the 3rd is plausible - in relation to your first statement in your post:

I'm still plodding along with my read, but I've got a few questions I might as well ask right now. I briefly skimmed the first 15 pages, so I'm sure I missed some of these answers.

But the first question makes no sense at all if you're only to page 15.

So, how do you know about the hoopla gambit if you haven't skimmed past page 15 yet? Read about it in the scum QT did ya?

Unless there's a good explaination for this, this seems like a slip worth changing my mind on the whole player slot.

[HackerHuck]

...So, how do you know about the hoopla gambit if you haven't skimmed past page 15 yet? Read about it in the scum QT did ya?

Unless there's a good explaination for this, this seems like a slip worth changing my mind on the whole player slot.

My mention of skimming the first 15 pages was a clarification of this post since I mentioned something (DGB claim) that was in those pages.

UNVOTE: Spyrex

Hi folks. Given the size of this game, I won't do a full readthrough right off. It will definitely be a while (if at all) before I go through the first 18 pages of role discussion/voting.

To clarify what I've looked at...
early pages - roughly 1-15 I skimmed.
Started reading at beginning of Day 2
Currently to page 47, but was probably on early 40s when I posted.
I did go back and look at Hoopla's last few posts, including her explanation of the gambit/breadcrumbing.

[mith]

DGB: So, if the whole premise is that scum don't put all their eggs in the same basket, why would you then "call the scum team" with four players who were all on the very first wagon you included in your analysis?

I am predisposed to dismissing your wagon analysis (not because wagon analysis isn't useful, but because the point system is mathematically naive, and doesn't analyse motivation within a wagon)... but here (as compared to the rankings to be found in the Ellibereth links) your system is devoid of any thought beyond counting up who was on the lead wagons, and spit out a result which completely contradicts the premise of the wagon.

[DrippingGoofball]

DGB: So, if the whole premise is that scum don't put all their eggs in the same basket, why would you then "call the scum team" with four players who were all on the very first wagon you included in your analysis?

Are you doing this on purpose???

It's not 100% accurate. Right? You knew that. Right? As we lynch and as players are NK'd, we have their alignment. Every time we have more information, the analysis becomes more accurate.

[DrippingGoofball]

...because the point system is mathematically naive.

It's doesn't have to be complicated, it has to be EFFECTIVE. And effective it is.

[Ellibereth]

FATE I WANT TO BOUNCE OVER FOR A SEC I MIGHT BOUNCE BACK K.

UNVOTE, VOTE PLUM

[Fate]

FATE I WANT TO BOUNCE OVER FOR A SEC I MIGHT BOUNCE BACK K.

UNVOTE, VOTE PLUM

DO YOU REMEMBER THR LAST TIME YOU SAID THIS TO ME?

DO YOU?

I AM NOT PLEASED.

[Ellibereth]

No. >.>

[Fate]

@mith: I'm not sure if your expectation for people to change their playstyle midgame is actually

serious

or not, but I urge you to look deeper and realize capitalized letters aren't all that scary and are quie capable of conveying deep and powerful messages just like their wimpy counterparts.

SO QUIT BITCHIN AND REALIZE THIS BURST OF CONTENT IS A GOOD THING.

Unvote:
Vote: Plumplom

[HackerHuck]

I read through pretty quickly, so I'll need to go back in and dig into some people. I found that I got more townish reads than I normally do, which was a little surprising since I normally put most people in the neutral to scummy side when replacing in.
I don't have notes on everyone, but that's because some people made almost no impression on me (ooba, pokerface/eek, Adumbrodeus, pz/iamausername).

This post didn't make sense to me in the context I read.

Kmd is claiming track on elmo to someone?

If it was tajo, elmo should shoot himself today (or) be lynched tomorrow.
If it was Amished, I see no reason why elmo should be lynched; or why kmd choose to soft claim today.

If it was someone else (and was blocked by JK\WD), we should take a call on how scummy target was.

Oddly, both Spyrex and Seraphim (both seeking on VV/me) were aiming toward less than optimal play in this situation by pushing for an Elmo lynch. (of course 20/20 hindsight here) Then Spyrex pushes Elmo for more information.

@Elmo:

Why did you take that shot over others?

@ Elliscum

BECAUSE:

Tajo was the vig kill. No, I am not claiming vig. It is just painfully obvious.

I knew that KMD was hinting at role-based info, so I took it for cash to the bank.

To me, this means either Ellibereth or DGB are scum, but not together.

- If elmo had been tracked to tajo, the correct play would have been to ask him to shoot himself as that frees up a lynch.

Huh?

Rhinox in 849 makes a good case on ekim.

Rhinox is acting pretty weird though. I don't understand the stance on VV. He seems almost too certain that my slot is town.

Pom case on VV in post 921 is bad. Way too much going on to peg someone for lurking. It's interesting that Plum puts a halt to it in the next post.

knowing Vas' alignment, I think that the Seraphim/Vas argument is town/town. I agree with Rhinox that it doesn't make sense for scum to push that hard and I don't get the feeling that Seraphim is so stubborn to let that get in the way of a scum win-con.
I like this observation by PZ.

I think this post by Mith re DGB will be useful once we get a flip on him.

That pretty much rules out a DGB lynch, then.

Power roles should know what to do tonight (if not, read through the discussion back on whatever page, or ISO me to find the relevant stuff).

UNVOTE: DrippingGoofball
VOTE: zoraster

I'm not sure if this is coaching or being tool helpful, but it doesn't feel very good to me.

This doesn't ring right to me either

Kmd: I suspect

anything I say

will do nothing for your opinion of me, because your opinion of me is irrational and inexplicably set in stone.

That said, I will carry on trying.

Why would Mith be so hung up on what KMD thinks of him?
FTR, I don't think this second vig discussion makes much sense. Yes, the scum would know if there are two vigs in the game, but letting KMD track someone implies that they think he's more likely to track the second vig than one of the scum. -Fate makes a good point later on that the scum may have RBed Elmo and there are two vigs, so I may be wrong here.
From a results perspective, it assumes that something prevented one kill both nights. It's not impossible, but I think the combination of these things makes it very unlikely. Jailing the mafia RB could be a reason why KMD was able to track. That said, it's probably not scummy to make the 2nd vig suggestion, so I wouldn't make much of Rhinox/Mith mentioning it.

I was going to repeat my comment about how concerned Mith is with KMD's vote on him, but I'm touched by his post 1285. It's almost enough to convince me, but I think Post 1283 is a little too contrived. With 8 to lynch, I don't really see a lot of worry that people will pile on 'just because' considering the people that don't agree with KMD's case.

I'm going to pretend that this came after I was announced as the replacement.

PRAISE ALL THAT IS FAIR AND JUST VV'S SLOT IS GETTIN AN INJECTION OF COMPETENCE

I also like this post by fate

Also, Why wasn't KMD blocked if elmo was the scum kill?
It's suboptimal to try and block a possible role while you already have a claimed informational role. There's something wrong here.

Tell us what is wrong then, because:

1. It ain't KMD scum
2. A townie with half a brain would know why he was left unblocked
3. You pointing out these "suboptimal shenanigans but drawing no conclusions from it is SCUMMY AS ALL HELL.

Ooba moves to #2 immediately

I don't agree with his later conclusion that there are two vigs, but it is scummy that ooba made no conclusions. Well, sort of...

Addn: 1264 - "Agree with Rhinox's point 3 that a second Vig remains a possibility, and that Kmd unblocked lends weight to that possibility, and that we shouldn't discuss this in detail - if we have a second Vig, we will likely know it for certain tonight."
Back to 1263 - might be a possible slip by Rhinox (and mith?) - JK blocking the Roleblocker might also explain why KMD was not blocked - the fact that this possibility was not considered might point to inside info that a JK might not have been added - Hence never considered as a scenario?

This last sentence could actually be evidence that the PRs are 2 vig, tracker, and jailer. ooba is then putting this out there so that the jailer thinks he actually caught scum last night.
I'm not sure that ooba is that sophisticated, but I think it's a good idea to keep the jailer from making that type of a claim until we get the number of vigs resolved.

My scummier players are in this list: Mith, Plum/Pom, ellibereth, ooba, spyrex. These folks (and the less active ones) are where I'm going to look a little closer. I'm comfortable with a Plum/Pom vote now while I see what I can shake loose from those other trees.
VOTE: Plumegranate