Ladies Night -- Game Over

[cepi]

thats me btw

[cepi]

argg freaking top of page, i hate you so much....

but yeah

[Miyu]

If you are thinking of voting for me, than I can't stop you. I'll just laugh when you lynch the JailKeeper, and have been utterly fooled by such an obvious scum as Hoopla - since you are using your personal opinions as opposed to logic. Later today I'll actually do a larger wall of text post. But oh, lemme see - ya'all didn't read them the last time I made them. So spending my extremely limited time on doing such posts during this last week where one hour of my time was worth its weight in gold, was ridiculously silly.

So later today I'll make a post, since I have family arriving here right now.

[Snow_Bunny]

Anon brings a good point.

[Miyu]

I just found this, and I find it rather funny; from DGB.

I think Hoopla/Sotty/DizzyIzzy(Sucrose) are the scum

She has 2/3 correct here. Sotty, are you the third?

Here is why Hoopla is not the JailKeeper.

1. This is particularly the most damning piece of 'evidence' that you all have access to.

I tend not to think the claim is true, and Snow is just claiming to fish out the last powerroles for scum to pick them off later (it's the logical scumplay if you're going down). Though, as Ojanen says, it's a ridiculously simple claim to disprove, that it isn't worth lynching her for it when we have no players claiming contrary role information (ie; masons, nurse, jk/rb with other targets or another cop).

If she were the JailKeeper like she claims, then she would have

no

reason to not believe SB's claim as the Cop. As I believe she claimed she JK'd DGB the first Night - which fully supports SB's no result on DGB the first Night.

Hoopla responds to Apok pointing out that she did not initially believe the claim in 919. Yet she some how mistakes it, that Apok is meaning Izzy's claim.

No, she is talking about your nonbelieving in SB's claim of cop, which I quoted here in this post.

I really never at all considered a vote for Snow

Except that you did vote for Snow, Hoopla.

Your vote for SB.

I'm largely in favour of lynching Snow_Bunny today. I probably won't consider moving my vote to anyone other than Izzy in group 1, or DGB in group 3. These feel like suboptimal choices for today though.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Snow_Bunny

Correct me if I am wrong. But that right there looks like a vote for SB, when you claim "I really never at all considered a vote for Snow".

I am absolutely DAZZLED that Miyu is trying to extract town credit for her reaction to Izzy's claim, when she didn't post until AFTER Izzy was hammered. Granted, she was likely under the impression that she was the hammer-vote, as DGB forgot to unvote when changing her vote elsewhere, meaning it still counted on the Izzy-wagon, but the fact is, everyone besides Ojanen posted in between when Izzy claimed and Miyu's first reaction. I fail to believe that anyone else in her situation wouldn't bus Izzy when she is at L-1 (or already lynched) - she has no other options than to bus.

Like I said in an earlier post. I had been busy with other things, and so I had not read the thread until I made that post. This is a rather weak argument from you, and it is rather sad that you are even trying to stand on it. Could you please point out where I thought I was the hammer on Izzy? Because I recall saying that I thought SB had been the hammer on Izzy, and not DGB - because DGB had not unvoted.

On the contrary with my reaction to Izzy's claim, I was actively pushing her wagon before her lynch was guarenteed, which if you're going to count that passage of play for anything, it is I who deserves more town credit, because I actually had the option to push alternate theories, but didn't.

Are you talking about after SB's claim, and after DI's claim.. or just in general?

Because you made a giant post where you went after SB and voted for her. Then said you wouldn't considering moving your vote for anyone other than Izzy or DGB. If that is not going

Again, believing Izzy's claim is irrelevant, because you were the last to do so, and it happened after she was hammered.

I never believed Izzy's claim.

Convenient answers to the targets question - can you tell me why you didn't claim targets with your claim initially? It looks like the build-up to your claim is fishing for reactions on how widely believed you'd expect to be if you were to infact claim, which helps you decision to make the plunge or not. Your Snow block sheeps my logic, and again, doesn't improve the scummy slow-play of your fakeclaim.

Like I said in a response to UK. I was hoping that one of you scum would try to claim JK or RB - with hopes that you claimed RB; the wrong powerrole. That way scum would automatically be caught. If I were scum and trying to fakeclaim, I would not of done what I did - because that is just beyond ridiculous play. But I am town, specifically the JK, and I don't have to worry about how I come off to the village. Whereas you, who is scum, needs to constantly worry about it.

Of course someone will be vigged tonight. There is no we're lynching anyone other than you or I, and if the town picks wrong, then the vig killing you tonight is GUARENTEED. Scum and vig kills resolve simultaneously, so even if scum were to target Apok tonight, she'd still get a shot out if need be. Woops, there goes your scumplan!

Where did you get this information? I don't see it in the first page of this thread, or is this standard procedure?
Ahh, so you are hoping for two town deaths. Only if we lynch wrong; which mean I am lynched.

@Mod. What is the policy for vigilante shots in this case? Scum killing vigilante, the vig's shot still goes through?

Yes, they'd occur at the same time.

Hoopla, please respond to the point about why you didn't believe SB's claim; even though as a JK as you claim; you would know she was telling the truth. You keep sidestepping a response to this rather large point against you. Which has been pointed out, at least twice. I think cepi's post is the third doing so. Me quoting it in here would be the fourth.

Uk. Please quote yourself where you covered your flip on me. As I can't seem to find it.

Since I claimed, and am the real JK.
The four remaining scum are between:
UK
Sotty
Hoopla
Cepi.

Since Hoopla has fake claimed, that is one scum down.

Leaving the remaining among:

UK
Sotty
Cepi

At this point I personally believe it is UK, however I do admit some of that is because I don't like her for her overdramatic outbursts which are completely unnecessary. However I will cover all three in another post.

[Apokalyptika]

Huh...actually, Miyu's last post makes me feel a lot better about her. I didn't catch it earlier, but I actually had the same question about shots a couple (game) days ago, and I couldn't find the answer in the rules. I sent a PM to Red and he said that both shots do resolve simultaneously, but the fact that Hoopla knows this and Miyu evidently doesn't is...distressing. Combined with her other points, I'm actually feeling a drastic change in outlook here. I should reread, I think.

[RedCoyote]

I'm prodding Sotty.

---

Vote Count 4.4

• Miyu

  (2) (Hoopla - UncertainKitten)
  
  
  Hoopla

  (2) (Miyu - Snow_Bunny)
  
  
  Not Voting
  (3) (Sotty7 - cepi - Apokalyptika)

With seven alive, it takes four to lynch.

Current Deadline: Oct. 18th, 2010 at 2:15 AM (CST)

[Hoopla]

I tend not to think the claim is true, and Snow is just claiming to fish out the last powerroles for scum to pick them off later (it's the logical scumplay if you're going down). Though, as Ojanen says, it's a ridiculously simple claim to disprove, that it isn't worth lynching her for it when we have no players claiming contrary role information (ie; masons, nurse, jk/rb with other targets or another cop).

UNVOTE:

Hoopz, why did you think Snow was lying with her claim?

Of course I didn't think Snow was lying with her claim, contrary to what that passage says. In my situation

I knew

Snow_Bunny was telling the truth and was quite certain that her wagon would fall away (hence why I also unvoted her in the same post), meaning I wouldn't

need

to claim to confirm her as town, as outing myself then would suboptimal play. Anyone who has played more than 5 games knows it's a newb-PR play to telegraph your role unnecessarily, and this is EXACTLY what this situation was. From a scum perspective, they knew that Snow was truthful, which also meant they knew a roleblocker/jailkeeper existed. I didn't want to make it obvious I was the Jailkeeper, but also, I

absolutely

made sure that Snow would not be considered for the lynch, which reading my follow-up posts, not just that first one, makes clear;

This'll get me some boos. But. I'll say at this point that, shock holler, I don't find it totally inconceivable that the whole camn wagon was town. IF SBs claim is true, it's in fact looking like that. Because Hoopla is such a strong townread and UK would have to be a GF.

Ultra

quick wagons (outside of lylo and a guilty result and so on) contain most likely town, VI scum who expect to get away with their meta and only quite-a-bit-bolder-than-average scum, and this must have looked like a really warty wagon.

No boos here - I'm starting to endorse this theory too.

<snip>...

VOTE: DizzyIzzyB13

Then after I get on the Izzy wagon, she claims Doctor, to which I respond;

Oh joy, guarenteed scum today or tonight!

Izzy's probably the scum though. I REALLY want to see what DGB thinks given her flipflopping on SB.

Keeping my vote on Izzy, whilst also...

Yes. Third power role, don't claim - we get scum guarenteed today or tonight. There's no need outing yourself for this one to prove Izzy or SB scum.

If SB is truthful, we don't get any more investigations from her role, regardless - she'll either be NK'd or jailkept. If Izzy is truthful, Apok vigs SB tonight.

...pushing her wagon. I also left a small breadcrumb on what I was going to do that night with my role.

The question that everyone needs to answer is this;

If I'm scum with Izzy, what is my motivation to bus her, then make her claim doctor, or at least endorse a plan for her to claim doctor in the QT, only to bus her again and make sure the last PR doesn't claim? What does that get us as scum? Wouldn't me-scum at least try to get the Jailkeeper to claim or give a chance at a Snow-mislynch? There is ZERO gain for a Hoopla/Izzy scumteam in this scenario - I didn't give her a chance of being town, because

I

am the third powerrole, not because I'm scum trying to pull an elaborate bus for NO GAIN.

[Hoopla]

Huh...actually, Miyu's last post makes me feel a lot better about her. I didn't catch it earlier, but I actually had the same question about shots a couple (game) days ago, and I couldn't find the answer in the rules. I sent a PM to Red and he said that both shots do resolve simultaneously, but the fact that Hoopla knows this and Miyu evidently doesn't is...distressing. Combined with her other points, I'm actually feeling a drastic change in outlook here. I should reread, I think.

What the hell? Are you seriously using this as a point against me? Anyone that has played more than one game with a vigilante or Serial Killer, or even multiple scum teams knows that kills always resolve simultaneously. When have you ever seen a vig's shot not go through because the mafia killed it first? In my 40 or so games I've played, plus twice as many I've read or skimmed, I've NEVER seen kills

not

resolve simultaneously. Come on, this is just common sense.

[Sotty7]

Sorry I'm here. Dying of a headache this morning. When it goes away I will be back with content. (either later today or tomorrow)

Sorry girls.

[UncertainKitten]

@Miyu: Actually, notice the theme in that post. She leans towards "disbelieving", but says it's easy enough to disprove, and key words here,

not worth lynching over

.

Do you think it's possible she was trying to avoid outing herself as the jailkeeper after the hard stance she took on S_B?

...what the hell, Miyu, this is misrep!

Except that you did vote for Snow, Hoopla.

Your vote for SB.

Which was before the cop claim.

That's scummy as HELL.

I'm pretty sure I explained why I changed my mind pretty much after Hoopla claimed. You stalled on massclaim because you knew it would wreck your plan. Hoopla counterclaiming is suicidal.

@Apok: Um...actually, I kinda assumed that was the case two. It's how I'd resolve it. It's just...how action resolution works...

Miyu's post, for me at least, confirms she's scum. Her reaches to try to indict Hoopla scummily misrepresent her behavior. That's all there is to it.

[Anon]

Except that you did vote for Snow, Hoopla.

Your vote for SB.

That is a vote before Bunnys claim. If Hoopz is indeed a town jailkeeper, the she wouldnt know her targets before it. Thx for making this decision harder than it is.

Of course I didn't think Snow was lying with her claim, contrary to what that passage says. In my situation I knew Snow_Bunny was telling the truth and was quite certain that her wagon would fall away (hence why I also unvoted her in the same post), meaning I wouldn't need to claim to confirm her as town, as outing myself then would suboptimal play. Anyone who has played more than 5 games knows it's a newb-PR play to telegraph your role unnecessarily, and this is EXACTLY what this situation was. From a scum perspective, they knew that Snow was truthful, which also meant they knew a roleblocker/jailkeeper existed. I didn't want to make it obvious I was the Jailkeeper, but also, I absolutely made sure that Snow would not be considered for the lynch, which reading my follow-up posts, not just that first one, makes clear;

The problem here is that you could have unvoted Bunny without adding that scummy sentence. And others that give the feeling that you are still considering Bunny in case Izzy flips town (iso 79

"If Izzy is truthful, Apok vigs SB tonight.

", iso 80

"Actually, couldn't it be said that Snow Bunny was in the same position as Izzy? If the optimum scum move nearing lynch is to claim a powerrole to out one in the game - then surely Snow's claim could be interpreted in such a manner."

, iso 82,

"If SB is scum, what does that make DGB?"

).

Also, in the context of you being the jailkeeper, then the bold part feels off, something like you shouldnt even have thought if you were indeed the jailkeeper:

I tend not to think the claim is true, and Snow is just claiming to fish out the last powerroles for scum to pick them off later (it's the logical scumplay if you're going down).

Though, as Ojanen says, it's a ridiculously simple claim to disprove, that it isn't worth lynching her for it when we have no players claiming contrary role information

(ie; masons, nurse, jk/rb with other targets or another cop).UNVOTE:

The question that everyone needs to answer is this; If I'm scum with Izzy, what is my motivation to bus her, then make her claim doctor, or at least endorse a plan for her to claim doctor in the QT, only to bus her again and make sure the last PR doesn't claim? What does that get us as scum? Wouldn't me-scum at least try to get the Jailkeeper to claim or give a chance at a Snow-mislynch? There is ZERO gain for a Hoopla/Izzy scumteam in this scenario - I didn't give her a chance of being town, because I am the third powerrole, not because I'm scum trying to pull an elaborate bus for NO GAIN.

Town credit? Specially in a context of Izzy as the only viable wagon at that point? Siding with Izzy at that point would have been suicide.

[cepi]

oh joy

[cepi]

Hoopz, there is also something that is bothering me quite some:

Your jailkeep meta suggest that you jailkeep people you think are town. Why did you target DGB night 1 if you thought she was scum (and there was some consensus on her)? Why not Fenchurch for example?

Hey, Bunny, important question here, did you get different PMs from mod in night 1 and in night 3?

[cepi]

Yeah, as I reread more, I get more convinced Miyu is teling the truth here and that Hoopz is an amazing scumbag.

First, Miyu claimed first. Only choice for Hoopzscum would be to counterclaim and avoid the logical puzzle win. The timing slightly favors Miyu.

Second, lets see, if Miyu were scum then why would she refuse to claim and indeed softclaim? Miyuscum would know there is a town jailkeeper, why play the softclaiming and refusing to claim card if she knew there would be someone that was indeed the jailkeeper and could own her? This makes me think that Miyutown is indeed the jailkeeper, was not expecting Hoopzscum would counterclaim and was trying to not out herself.

Like I said previously. This entire massclaim has been a total waste. Could've lynched a scum without revealing...

It clicks perfectly with her town motivation and her

not knowing or expecting a counterclaim.

Now, there are some inconsistencies in Hoopz behavior. I dont see Hoopztown jailkeeping DGB night 1 with other players like Ojanen, Fenchurch and camn in the mix (likely targets for nightkills)and with a jallkeeper meta of protecting people, not roleblocking scumbags.

Who I'm not lynching today: camn, Fenchurch, Ojanen

Id also like to point out that Hoopz attacks DGB for clearing Ojanen for being smart in day 2, suggesting she thinks Ojanen is not one of her top town reads (subtly confirming this in iso 47).

Ojanen, can you explain your DGB town read? I find it quite bizarre you've put her right at the top of tree, when you've posted very little about her (and when my opinion differs heavily from yours)

But then later she goes from this stance to blindly following her in her camn hate and then after camn came up town, she still PROTECTED her night 2. Why wasnt Hoopztown paranoid about Ojanensmartscum after camn flipped town?

And finally we have this amazing piece of information from Snow White:

No vote because they are MY PRECIOUS!!
3-9 tomorrow. Should have more by then. Would not be against a esurio lynch but right now you all seem set on other people.

Context: day 2. This is Snowhite second and final post of the game and catchup post until page 6 before being replaced by Miyu. At that point of the game, esurio was already killed by scum night 1. One would say that by that point, Snowwhite scum would have already caught up in the scum QT and know that esurio was the nightkill for quite important reasons, yet she is disinformed of this event and has her as a top suspect for lynch.

So yeah, nice try but you are scum Hoopz.

VOTE: HOOPLA.

[UncertainKitten]

Hmm...hell, now I'm confused again. Because cepi puts up a lot of good points. But I REALLY can't shake my feelings on Miyu. I think the snow_white thing isn't necessarily concrete, but it is a supporting point...

ARGH...I guess I need to think and read at some point today or tomorrow.

[Snow_Bunny]

UK, Miyu's the one telling the truth. Hammer time.

[UncertainKitten]

To hell with it, if I'm wrong fuck it. I honestly don't see myself doing the promised reread in any timely fashioned.

I hope you all are right.

Unvote, vote Hoopla

[Snow_Bunny]

We are.

Right, dear mod?

[cepi]

I hate UK's timing, specially in a context where we should coordinate night actions. Stupid UK if you are town.

Anyways lynching wrong today doesnt mean game over. And lynching right means we win no matter what.

Would like to point out the plan for our power roles tonight. (Im considering myself as unconfirmed and posting this as an outside analyser so that you can all analyse it from your own point of view and understand this is a plan that works 100% of the times. DO NOT LET THE SCUM ALIVE TRY TO MESS WITH IT.

If we lynch right

Apoka should target one of the unconfirmed, that means either Sotty or cepi. It doesnt matter who. Miyu should jailkeep UncertainKitten in case she is the godfather.

Next day, if we havent won with a Sotty or cepi vig, we analyse if there was a scum kill or there wasnt a scum kill. If there is a scum kill, this means UK is NOT the godfather (since she would be the only scum alive sending the kill and she would have been jailkept). Lynch whoever is left of Sotty and cepi and win. If there wasnt a kill, then lynch UK, no matter how hard she cries. We can still vig or lynch whoever is left of Sotty and cepi the next night/day in case she was crafty enough to not send a kill (its 100% stupid and useless anyways.)

If we lynch wrong

, Apoka should vig Miyu and Bunny should investigate one of Sotty or cepi. Your call here. Next day, there is no logical puzzle to follow and people alive should reread and follow gut to lynch right. (worse scenario is we enter a situation with both unconfirmed and a townie or godfther alive).

[cepi]

PLEASE, IF WE LYNCH RIGHT, WHICH I THINK WE ARE GOING TO DO, FOLLOW THE PLAN ACCORDINGLY. DONT BE STUPID AND DONT LET SCUM MESS WITH IT NO MATTER WHAT.

THX AND GOOD NIGHT.

[UncertainKitten]

Haven't you noticed that the night actions are spelled out in both yours and mine posts, cepi? We've run down every scenario that matters.

The hammer's timing wasn't stupid, because everything you said has already been said.

[cepi]

If you are town, then that play is really stupid. We werent in a rush, there wasnt deadline and Id have liked to get Apoka confirming who would she vig, Miyu confirming that she would target you and basically PLANNING night actions, which are the ones that guarantee town win if we lynch right today.

And yeah there is still the remote but still latent possibility that Hoopz is indeed the jailkeeper, (if somehow Miyu is an evil mastermind capable of predicting my read....). Shutting off discussion with your hammer with you not even being sure you were lynching scum makes me dislike that maneuver even more.

[UncertainKitten]

Think what you want. I could care less about this game at this point, really.

[cepi]

Then why play?

Game aside, Ive sincerely lost a lot of respect for you, UK.