Sleepless Assassin wrote:
It's not "might or might not". It's about determining whether or not we think they did. Currently, I think it makes sense and his response has reinforced my thoughts.
It might be player bias that Mafuyu thinks otherwise. This is exactly why Mafuyu would up revealing Mason status in the last C9++, because of meta-based 'might have's. It just seems like it would lead to probabilistic uncertainties at best.
Yes, player A knowing player B might thus kill them for X reason. They might also kill players C-D for Y reason. X reason has a slightly better result for A-scum's play. However, C-D might also have killed B for Z reason or Y reason, which means that at the very best you wind up with a slightly weighted bias towards B. The fact that you are pushing it to the degree you do is obvious (you want to gauge reactions to see if X>>Y in methodology, thus if A is scum then A MUST have killed B), but it still neglects C-D players.
Sum: Yes, you might be right that he has good reason as scum to play as he has. Unless you account for the rest of the playerbase, however, this is leverage at best and player-biased tunnelling at worst. And to be honest, your entry reasoning for his play is horrible and easily negated by the simple observation that players will tend to tweak their play the more games they play. You're not going to make a disputable comment about his previous games and expect it to fly now, that's just poor form.
Bonus: Also keep in mind that you're making a scum/sk setup play right now. Also keep in mind that it has actually worked in the past.
Now then, for Mothrax. More votes on him are in order, if only to make him squirm and see what oozes out. Mass-claim is silly for easily-noted reasons, so the simplest rationales for his play are:
1. Stupid throwaway scum.
2. Lack of effort in interpreting setup base results (how doing X publicly would affect the game)
3. Attempting to gauge reactions.
Bear in mind that of the two towny reactions, neither are actually weighted towards being town reactions. Gauging is something both sides are capable of doing (and something an SK must eventually do) and a lack of effort can be attributed to anyone that's just playing the game casually or with more important things on their mind.
So, if he's going to convince anyone that he is town, Mafuyu thinks he'd better hit the ground running or lose credibililty.
Guh. The words.