Open 249: Mayo Clinic **Game Over!**

[drmyshottyizsik]

oh shit damn fuck, sorry!!!
Um wow, I just reached a new level of dumb, I'm really sorry. Bye

[HackerHuck]

So, um, are we just gonna sit here until deadline again?...

Activity usually drops on the weekend and I believe we're waiting on massclaim direction. Since Warriordude went first, I suggested that he pick next.

[Phaen]

I'm still watching.

After the claims we'll have plenty to talk about. Voting and narrowing down who we think is fakeclaiming and such.

Can we hurry up and claim, then? (is there really an advantage to going in a certain order? if not I can just claim now...)

[Katsuki]

Order does not matter imo.

Will wait to see what warrior likes though.

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

P-EDIT: HOLD THE MASSCLAIM UNTIL I GET HERE. I WANT TO GET MY ANALYSIS OFF BEFORE ANY CLAIMING OCCURS.

I assume you're all set now? Can we see the analysis?

So are you planning on claiming before you go on V/LA smashbro? And is that really all you have to say?

Yeah. I'm back now, and I see no one has claimed anyway (aside from warrior). That's all I had time to say.



If we lynch someone today, it can be either town or scum.

town lynch = 2 vigs, 3 scum, 2 town.
---------assume 1 town dies, we need to kill at least 1 scum. assuming 1 to 1 === 2 vigs, 2 scum, 1 town. we (hopefully) win
---------if both vigs shoot, one hits town, other hits scum, and scum hit town, then 2 vig 2 scum, we lose.
---------if 1 vig shoots town, and scum shoot town, then 3 to 2 we lose.
scum lynch = 2 vigs 2 scum, 3 town.
---------Assume 1 town dies from scum, if we both hit town, then we lose.
---------if we don't do anything it's 2 vig 2 scum 2 town.
---------If we get 1 scum and scum kills 1 town at night, then it becomes 2 vigs 1 scum 2 town, and we win.
---------if there are 2 deaths, both town, then it becomes 2 vigs, 2 scum, 1 town.

what's the point of this random math and night speculation? It's pretty much always better if we only have one vig shoot, and still keep the other one alive for confirmed town purposes. That being said, It might be best to, at the end of the day, set up pools of people, saying all of you protect vig #1, the rest of you protect vig #2. There will be a doctor in each setup, and if a vig does die, then anyone who was supposed to protect him was scum.

I need to get to class now, but I'll be back later with a post, will include who I suspect.

[Antihero]

Forgot to post here in a while. Expect one later.

I support a massclaim, by the way.

[Scott Brosius]

what's the point of this random math and night speculation? It's pretty much always better if we only have one vig shoot, and still keep the other one alive for confirmed town purposes. That being said, It might be best to, at the end of the day, set up pools of people, saying all of you protect vig #1, the rest of you protect vig #2. There will be a doctor in each setup, and if a vig does die, then anyone who was supposed to protect him was scum.

I need to get to class now, but I'll be back later with a post, will include who I suspect.

Vigs have to shoot, they have no choice. I guess a protection scheme isn't optimal at this point especially if we don't kill scum.

[HackerHuck]

This is taking way too long. We should massclaim and then just pick one of the claimed doctors to lynch. I'm in that pool, so whoever posts next should claim.

[JesseSheffield]

I'm a doctor as well.

[Scott Brosius]

Yeah there's really no point to popcorning. I am a doctor.

[Katsuki]

Doc here

@Smashbro: I scratched the analysis since it was too much work for me when mod didn't list non-voters. (and I don't have the time to piece those together without)

[Antihero]

This isn't my catchup post, but I'm a doctor.

[warriormode]

Im one of the vigs. killed shotty. and i made an obv breadcrumb for those who didn't see.

And yes we do have to pick someone to kill every night, but if we only want to target one person as smashbro was thinking, both vigs could just target the same person.

so far we have:
docs: Hacker, Jesse, scott, katsuki, antihero
vig: warrior
unclaimed: Phaen, smashbro
correct?

[Katsuki]

We don't need vigs both targetting the same person imo. If one of the targets doesn't die, then we lynch them, simple as.

This would allow us to find scum faster.

[Phaen]

Doctor here.

[crywolf20084]

Vote Count: Day 2

5 to lynch someone; 4 to not lynch anyone.

Scott Brosius: (1)

JesseSheffield

Not Voting

Antihero
Scott Brosius
Warriormode
Katsuki
Smashbro_of_the_SSS
Phaen
HackerHuck


Once again, any mistakes, let me know. etc etc

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

Alrighty, I'm the other vig, killed gandalf.

If I had to pick out players who I think are most likely to be scum I'd say you, Phaen. Town players don't normally seek out reasons for players to be scum. That's something scum do because they can't actually pick out other players to be scum, because they're the scum.

I know this backtracks a bit, but I don't see why you didn't vote for Phaen at this point. People should vote for who they think is scum, yet you hold your vote back. Why?

I assume others will understand why?

Scum will know who is/isn't protected but it also confirms scum if someone who was supposed to be protected dies.

not entirely, no.

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Something about Scott's play in this game has thrown me off, not sure why though. I can't find anything especially scummy about him, but I'd like to see more out of him. Also going to look at katsuki, I'll have to go back and ISO again, there were a few quotes I found odd.

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Also, anyone have any insight on why Nopoint was killed? I don't see any particular reason, since he wasn't especially active town, but he does vote for jesse, katsuki, and muthaa through the day.

[HackerHuck]

Doctors - three are scum:
Antihero
Scott Brosius
Katsuki
JesseSheffield
Phaen
HackerHuck

Vigilantes - confirmed town:
warriormode
smashbro_of_the_SSS

Also, anyone have any insight on why Nopoint was killed? I don't see any particular reason, since he wasn't especially active town, but he does vote for jesse, katsuki, and muthaa through the day.

I don't see any value in that line of thought.

It's also best not to discuss why the vigs chose their respective targets. We don't really want to tip the scum off onto their train of thought and there's no reason to doubt their claims.

I'm going to look back into the claimed doctors, but won't get around to it until this evening.

[JesseSheffield]

I know this backtracks a bit, but I don't see why you didn't vote for Phaen at this point. People should vote for who they think is scum, yet you hold your vote back. Why?

It was too early in the game to get an accurate read on anyone. Just because I feel someone is most likely to be scum does not mean I think they're scum. I do that often early in the game to let others know where my head's at since they're usually pissy about me not voting.

[HackerHuck]

I'm a little disappointed that no one showed up to even ask why I hadn't got to my read through. Come on people, no posts leads to no votes and no votes leads to no lynch. I also want the vigilantes to remain active. You guys are going to have a big role tonight, so it's important to press us so that you know who to target after today's flip.

Here's my take on the other five docs. We're only 14 pages in and there are a lot of empty posts in that.
Anithero - His biggest contribution is a vote on Katsuki and he makes a wall of text post that really doesn't put together a solid case. Most of what he says about Katsuki doesn't even jive with what actually happened, so it looks to be mostly misrep. Oddly enough, he finds Nopoint to be townie. I'd put him in the mostly fluff category

Jesse - I don't have a problem with his choice not to random vote. He's certainly not alone in stance. I find his discussions of scumhunting versus scumseeking to just contribute a lot of noise, but I don't see it as being a scumtell. His claim that Phaen would be his top scum suspect is consistent with his beliefs, albeit not how I would go about making a casae. Iso 18 is a really good wrap-up and explains his thought process enough that I'm leanig town on Jesse. Post 22 is indicative of a new player and is incorrect. Jesse, it is your problem if you can't get your point across. It's no good to be right if no one will listen to you.

Phaen - She seems to be very tentative and I really didn't like how both of her real votes (Jesse and Katsuki) were really just pressure votes. It seems a little hypocritical coming from someone who really had a problem with Jesse not taking a stand.

Katsuki - Lots of noise, makes a pretty basic case on Nopoint that gets Antihero all riled up for some reason. Both of his cases (gandalf and Nopoint) are really weak, but are made early in the game. The worries I see are where he says that he always lines lynches, and the fact that he's been less active since the massclaiming went through.

Scott Brosius - This guy has totally been flying under the radar. Only 16 posts and he's discussed claiming in about five of them. I'd throw him in my scumpile.

Based on my reads, I'd put the scumteam as Antihero, Phaen, and Scott Brosius. That's in descending order of most scummy to least scummy, followed by Katsuki and Jesse in that order.

I don't really care if anyone else puts together a ranking or not. Just have something to say about my list.

[Katsuki]

In class, will probably not have time to post until tonight.

Agreed with what hacker said about activity, and apologies on my part, been very busy as of late.

[JesseSheffield]

Anithero - His biggest contribution is a vote on Katsuki and he makes a wall of text post that really doesn't put together a solid case. Most of what he says about Katsuki doesn't even jive with what actually happened, so it looks to be mostly misrep. Oddly enough, he finds Nopoint to be townie. I'd put him in the mostly fluff category

Phaen - She seems to be very tentative and I really didn't like how both of her real votes (Jesse and Katsuki) were really just pressure votes. It seems a little hypocritical coming from someone who really had a problem with Jesse not taking a stand.

Katsuki - Lots of noise, makes a pretty basic case on Nopoint that gets Antihero all riled up for some reason. Both of his cases (gandalf and Nopoint) are really weak, but are made early in the game. The worries I see are where he says that he always lines lynches, and the fact that he's been less active since the massclaiming went through.

Scott Brosius - This guy has totally been flying under the radar. Only 16 posts and he's discussed claiming in about five of them. I'd throw him in my scumpile.

I agree with most of what you said on Antihero. I don't think Antihero's been the most helpful later in the game and I do agree that most of his posts are fluffy but I don't really seem him as a top scum read. I agree with everything you said about Phaen, I feel as if she's just been floating by through the game, trying pretty hard to not draw attention to herself. Katsuki has made a lot of borderline annoying noise about pretty much nothing. The activity I'm not so worried about because he's also relative inactive in other games. Scott is my #1 scum pick at the moment. I feel like he attempted to pressure the town into making a deal with the devil with the protection scheme and I think he's purposely been not attracting attention to himself in order to fly under the radar. I think he's playing smart, manipulative scum and right now I think he's the town's biggest threat.

So I'm keeping my vote on him.

[Scott Brosius]

I wasn't trying to pressure the town, the last game played in this setup, that strategy helped town out. It doesn't seem it will be as advantageous this game.

This post still seems forced and bothers me.

Wow, pretty hard to believe that with six doctors we weren't able to protect any of the three townies that died last night. Good news is no vig deaths, but I was really surprised that all three of those slots flipped town.

This is one case where I think that a massclaim is a really good idea. Given what happened yesterday, Katsuki should go first. Please claim when you post your analysis.

Anyone claiming vig needs to claim their target, but I don't think that the docs need to.

Antihero is another scum read of mine, promising content and not delivering. I'm leaning towards Jesse being town based on the accusations against him for not voting are lame and very easy for scum to jump on. Phaen and Katsuki I don't really have a read on either way, I guess it's more interesting in Katsuki's case since there are a lot more posts saying nothing.

[JesseSheffield]

Sooo what're your thoughts on Hacker other than that singular post seeming forced and bothering you.

[Katsuki]

Erg.

I will see if I have the energy for analysis tonight. I have another I must get to first though.

My top suspects are as follows
Hacker - For D2 comments. I think I explained some of it already. He is my top candidate.
Scott - Accuses me of doing nothing when his own iso is essentially empty. Seems like coasting scum imo.
Antihero: Useless player. Knows nothing but misrep.

Phaen is prob town imo. Need to look at her though.
Jesse is most likely town as well.

I REALLY THINK, THOUGH, THAT WHAT OUR VIG'S THINK ARE MOST IMPORTANT. CONFIRMED THEY ARE, NONE OF THE REST OF US ARE.