Open 226: Big Love - Game over! Town wins!

[Ythill]

ITT mallow wants me to help him find flaws in my own logic and ZF is all... "Them? I'm not with them."



Two scum between these three and we have a mislynch to spare even if the lovers die. Looks like a town win.

[RedCoyote]

Wow, thanks for replacing in, Ythill! I was planning on doing a little more VC analysis myself, although I prefer your conclusion to mine.

Vote: mallowgeno

[DavidParker]

So ythill, a little birdy tells you that one person in your "voting block" is scum. Who would you say it is?

[RedCoyote]

Well, I thought we would look at you versus Snaxion, but that would be primarily based on the first lynch. Plus I'd have to throw myself in that mix, despite the fact that SSSS was the most townie player in this entire game.

[Ythill]

The bird. Why?

[DavidParker]

figuratively speaking. i'm saying if someone in that voting block you proposed (as opposed to the 2/3 players u mentioned who u think is scum) is scum, which would u say it is.

[ZeroFang]

You'll notice he made a convinient little in group out group where he's the leader

[Miyu]

Haha. You can take up the cheerleading squad for activity.
I'm not sorry for my role; I much prefer being VT than anything else.

SV self-hammer's on this page, and the following page is the votecount/lynch. If I remember right, both his scummates were on him.

Why mallow?
I'm not 'keen' on him being scum, because of his prior slot Xite.


I don't see how people can find DP town. If by some miracle he is town, then he needs to learn how to play. Like actually play.

[Ythill]

@David:

I'm not going to rate my town reads so you can stop asking. Again, why do you want to know?

@ZF:

Meta me.

@Miyu:

David

is

inexperienced, yes. What's your point? Nothing about Xite was obv-town. He fake-claimed in the course of rolefishing Millar, FFS. Did you even look at my VC analysis?

[DizzyIzzyB13]

Day Five #3

• DavidParker (Miyu) 2 L-3
  mallowgeno (Ythill, RedCoyote) 2 L-3
  Miyu (Muthaa, DavidParker, mallowgeno) 2 L-3
  Muthaa (ZeroFang) 1 L-4

Not voting: Mr.Sandman, Sanxion

With 9 alive, 5 votes are required for a lynch.

V/LA:

Activity Check!

We're currently full to capacity. Yay!

Prod Count:

smashbro_of_the_SSS - 2

chihuahua0, millar13, Muthaa, Pittbunny, Reverse Simplicity, Shattered Viewpoint, Switz, youngminii - 1

Deadline for Day 5 is Wednesday, 6th October at 8pm UK time.

[Miyu]

Is DP inexperienced? Is that the excuse? Since when is inexperienced an automatic lead to town? And why is it even being used as an excuse? Which is really no excuse at all. You can still be inexperienced and actually read the thread and give opinions on things. If not, then what exactly is the entire system of Newbie games for?

Like I said in one of my posts when I replaced in this game. I had just played in a game with Xite, and she (I believe Xite = a she;) exhibited similar behavior. Which I found out that this game and that game seem to of been running at the same time; as she bowed out of this one for the same reason as that one.

I honestly only skimmed your post; as I was supposed to be halfway out the door on the way to class.

[Ythill]

Did I say it was an excuse? You set up a n00b-or-scum false dilemma which I found funny because David

actually is

new. Ooops.

Besides, from my reread it looks like you're either scum or convinced that inactivity and bandwagoning are strong scumtells, so I really don't care what you think of David. By that measure over half this player list is scum.

[mallowgeno]

Newbie cards don't fly outside of newbie games. Still think DP could be town.

[Ythill]

Way to latch on to your buddy's misrep, scumbag.

[Ythill]

Chi

:

He was a straight shooter and very new. He buddied to one town, one scum, and ZF. Chi attacked 7/17 players including Muutha, Xite, and 5 now-confirmed townies. Of them, he placed a vote or FoS on four (including Muutha and Xite), plus a RV on David. Most of his attacking was reserved for Millar and purported buddy Robo. When Xite came under pressure, chi made his only major stance change of the game, connecting Xite to both of his other suspects. Opportunism or distancing? Post #472 suggests the latter.

Mallow's slot is implicated here. To a lesser extent, Mutha, David, and ZF are also tarnished. Also note that the combination of an apologetic late confirm and behavior that seemed almost purposefully scummy suggest that chi knew he was going to be bussed. I believe that his goal was to out as many lovers as possible and then take the fall as soon as a buddy came under pressure.

SV

:

Though he's more experienced, there isn't a lot of depth to SV's play. He buddied up to or defended chi and 2 town. He Attacked 6/17 players including Xite/mallow, chi, and 4 town. Of those he voted Xite, chi, himself, and two town, plus a RV on Wacka. The only links he drew between players were town to town. While most of his votes were either hammers or placed on growing wagons, his Xite vote came as the pressure was fading. Furthermore, he took a last jab at mallow before self-hammering, which struck me as the distancing of scum who has already given up.

Mallow and, to a lesser extent, Wacka are implicated by this iso.

Fidelis

:

In reading the above isos, I made a realization. SV attacked post-claim Fidelis briefly as an excuse to hammer chi but didn't mention him before that. Chi didn't mention him at all. Thing is, the scum knew that Fidelis was linked to chi and, from their Pov, he was the worst possible lynch because it was as costly as bussing without any of the town-cred. I expect that the scum either buddied up to him or avoided him like the plague. Wacka, ZF, and Sanx only had nice things to say about him. Xite defended himself from Fidelis but otherwise ignored him. RC's predecessor ignored him completely. Sandman attacked Fidelis; Muutha voted him: town points for both slots.

D1 Bussing

:

The scum might have started bussing chi early, but I am

certain

that they had a lot to do with his lynch at the end of the day. There was a strong false dilemma going between the two VIs with Xite @ L-2 and chi had been mostly forgotten when the votes started quickly shifting his way. At that time, smashbro and a townie were already parked on chi. Smash had gotten on early with a decent case and stayed there all day. The second wagon started growing with a flurry of votes and attacks from now-confirmed town, and a vote from Sanx who slipped on in a sheep suit.

Immediately after that, Wacka and Sandman put on the breaks and Xite requested replacement. Things slowed down considerably. ZF stopped lurking, posted that quadruple eyebleed of IoA and jumped on chi, citing lurking and wagoning (heh), only to remove his vote in his next post

while still listing chi as his top suspect

. David jumped on with no explanation whatsoever, then another townie. That's L-3. Wacka kept defending chi and stalling. Town players dropped two more votes to make it L-2. More defense from Wacka, and an attempt to recreate the Xite counter-wagon. SV lurked for six hours before dropping the hammer.

The scum on this wagon is either ZF or Sanx. However, SV stalling before dropping the hammer suggests that he was giving one of his other buddies the chance to do it, probably the one who came up with the contingiency plan in the QT. If that's the case (a lot of assumption, I know), then only one other partner could have been on the wagon and Wacka is cleared as scum because there's no was SV was waiting for the defender to quick-hammer.

So, if we accept the theory that SV was waiting for a buddy, the scumteam are one of ZF/Sanx + mallow. If we believe that SV simply got cold feet then we can add Wacka to the first group but mallow is still implicated.

[DavidParker]

Vote: mallow

[Ythill]

Wacka

Lurked through the early game. Attacked 6/17 players including Xite and 5 confirmed town. He buddied to Sandman and 2 town, plus he defended both scum. I'm noting that he attacked Millar and Xite most aggressively D1, and they were two claimed lovers who were unknown to the scum. He also fished for lovers here and there. I don't like the slow lean he made off of millar and onto Xite because it felt unnatural. He wasted a lot of words qualifying his play and trying to seem innocent, and then replaced out once he'd been seriously accused. Plus there are a few scumslips...

Won't the mafia just NOT kill Xite now? Or am I missing something that makes Xite irresistable to being killed by mafia?
Let's say the mafia just doesnt kill him, then the town goes with your logic, and lynches him... now we (Possibly) have 2(or 3, or 4 if both are lovers with diff people) dead townies + mafia kill.
Is that what you want to (Possibly) die for?

Or again, am I missing something?

This is written over the course of trying to argue that Millar is a better lynch than Xite. It reads very much like he knows that Xite is town but there's been no confirmation and, two posts later, Wacka votes Xite simply because he's ahead of Millar in the VC.

This meant that the town was not scum hunting, due to an immense diversion that was Millar. This distraction had to be removed in order to move forward as a town.
In such a large game, we can justify a HORRIBLE townie lynch, to make progress on the next day - on the theory that a full town with one HORRIBLE player is worse than a full town - 2 townies.

Here he sounds like he knows that Millar is town, but there's been no cardflip.

Xite, I agree with a person who posted that your plan felt "Made up" on the spot. that plan DOESN'T MAKE SENSE.
Think of it, why would the mafia kill you again? YOU LOOK LIKE MAFIA.
Whenever I play as town, I try to be two steps ahead.
Whenever I play as mafia, I try to be THREE steps ahead.

Again, phrasing suggests he knows Xite's alignment to be town

while calling him scum

. And it also reads like scum ego pooh-poohing a dumb plan. It's disconcerting that iso evidence is showing a disconnect like this between my top two suspects.

In my experience, most people who request to be replaced out in a rage are scum, trying to play to a fearful town of killing a townie.

I just posted this one for the lulz.

[Ythill]

UNVOTE: mallow
VOTE: ZeroFang

[Miyu]

Bandwagoning is a scumtell. Town has absolutely no reason to be throwing their vote around all over the place and .. bandwagoning. Inactivity is not a scumtell, however extremely annoying. Lurking is one. When someone admits to not even reading the thread, it is extremely annoying; and I wonder why they are even playing in the game.

You labeled him as a newbie; so yes you are using it as an excuse.

[DavidParker]

Umm, ythill, you realize it's MIYU who replaced Wacka!?!?!? Not zerofang.. Yet you have Miyu pinned as town!?

i think you are confused.

This is why I wanted miyu lynched. Becuase of wacka's huge scum tells.

[Ythill]

Bandwagoning is a scumtell. Town has absolutely no reason to be throwing their vote around all over the place...

Not true. Vote movement and grouping is the

best

way to catch scum. Enough people have bandwagoned in this game that town

must

have done it. If town have done it, then it is

not

a reliable scumtell.

Lurking is one.

No, it isn't. Power roles lurk. Overloaded/busy/bored town lurk. Again, enough people have lurked in this game that town

must

have done it.

You labeled him as a newbie; so yes you are using it as an excuse.

No, I'm not. David is my town list because his play demonstrates that he is not scum.

You were the one

who said that he was either scum or new, which is a false dilemma. I was just pointing out that you should meta people when picking your false dilemmas because, ironically, David

is

new, and therefore your argument is silly.

Umm, ythill, you realize it's MIYU who replaced Wacka!?!?!? Not zerofang.. Yet you have Miyu pinned as town!?

i think you are confused.

The confusion is yours, probably because of your own assumptions. I know who replaced who, and I don't have Miyu as town. Let me explain my vote...

My initial reread gave me scumreads on Miyu, mallow, and ZF. Of them, Miyu was the scummiest but she had a bunch of votes already so I didn't get on her bandwagon. VC analysis didn't give much evidence to change my townreads, but it did implicate mallow heavily and he had no votes so I voted him. Scum isos and a couple of context reads further implicated mallow. Then I started my isos on living players with Wacka and found a disconnect: if the slips made by Wacka are accurate then it is suggested that mallow is town. This seems odd to me because both are individually scummy. Seeing that votes have shifted to mallow, I didn't want him close to lynch while I figure this out, so I moved my vote to the one suspect who (1) is likley scum with either Miyu or mallow and (2) doesn't have a wagon on him.

Over the next few days I will be continuing my isos and then I will be voting to lynch one of my suspects.

[mallowgeno]

Well doesn't that just wrap it up in a pretty little package?

[Ythill]

Make moar sense plz.

[Mr.Sandman]

Lol you give me more credit than is due. Bussing my partner wouldn't be smart in this stage. Therefore you need to recheck your facts because either Miyu or I are scum. Both is not possible.

This post sounds wrong, for a couple of reasons - WIFOMing the scum tactics and saying that either one or the other is implies knowledge. The idea of mallow being scum is growing on me.

I still see three possibilities for the second scum slot - mallow, Sanxion and I see the case on Zero and think there may be some merit in it, but I'm also aware that in this game more than most, most people look scummy just because of the way in which the game has been played. At the moment, Zero would be lowest out of the three and would probably fall into this category. Miyu, I have most confidence in getting right and thus she is my preference for today's lynch when the time comes

[Ythill]

@Sand:

Please comment on my #1166. If the strongest evidence against Miyu's slot are the scumslips where Wacka revealed knowing Xite to be town, how can mallow be scummy with Miyu? I am not trying to discredit your read but, rather, trying to refine mine.