Succession Mafia (OVER!)

[Andrius]

Your powers are weak, old man.

When I left you, I was but the learner; now

I

am the master.

My reread will come tonight.

[Yosarian2]

So Yos, I guess you were under the VERY STRONG impression that Furcolow was a cult recruiter yesterday?

Absolutely. I thought he was more likely scum then town based on his behavior, and I didn't think he'd likely be someone a cult would recruit night zero cult recruit, so yes, I thought there was a good chance that he was a cult recruiter. Otherwise, I wouldn't have voted him.

[ReaperCharlie]

Well, it makes sense when you say it THAT way...

--

Buuut you were still dead wrong, and I was right in refusing to vote for him.

So what makes you think you're right about Faraday, and I'm wrong about ooba?

[ReaperCharlie]

Also, Andrius. LOL.

But I need to teach you to use Photoshop

[Andrius]

Also, Andrius. LOL.

But I need to teach you to use Photoshop

Yes master.

Furcolow played his role shitty. Even AFTER I told everyone HOW to claim after dram failed in that respect.

[Yosarian2]

Anyway, this is how I see it here:

What we know about Ooba's role:

A. He claimed the Zwet kill, and wasn't counterclaimed. This was right after something like 4 people claimed significant pro-town roles, so awesome as Zwet is, if a cult had a klll for whatever reason I'd expect them to kill one of the town power roles. This was also consistant with Ooba's stated day 1 suspicions.

B. He had a lot of obscure details about his role confirmed by singersigner; there's no way he could have just guessed all of that.

C. He crumbed on day 1, with a crumb that proves that he already knew that the role name of the one shot vig was "loose cannon". This was confirmed by Zwet's death.

Most likely explination here is that he's telling the truth. The only other possibility I can think of that's at all likely is the one RC was pushing, that the cult recruiter got "loose cannon" as a safe claim. That dosn't explain the Zwet kill, though; if Ooba didn't kill Zwet, then who did? And why? Also, "one shot vig" would be a pretty crappy safe claim to give a cult recruiter without a kill; and I can't really see why any possible type of cult recruiter with a kill would not kill night 0 and then kill Zwet on night 1. Frankly, nothing other then "Ooba is a loose cannon" really makes sense here. (The third possibility, the one I came up with earlier today, that Ooba is a recruiter who knows about loose cannons because he recruited one, kind of fell apart once Ooba proved his day 1 breadcrumb; he would have had to recruit the loose cannon night zero and then set up an elaborate fakeclaim starting on day 1, which dosn't really make sense, and then direct his recruited loose cannon to kill Zwet rather then one of the claimed power roles or save the one-shot kill for endgame, which also doesn't make sense.)

At this point, I'm almost positive Ooba is not a cult recruiter. In fact, if I had to guess, I'd guess that he's probably still town; it's possible he could have been recruited after he made the kill last night, but it's really not all that likely.

[Andrius]

Ok, I'm willing to move on from ooba based on the above evidence.

BUT since I love crumbs, can someone point out ooba's crumbs?

-The Baker

[Yosarian2]

Andreus: This was the day 1 breadcrumb. I didn't notice it myself until ooba pointed it out.

After TheLonging had softclaimed one-shot vig in a really obvious way, ooba said this

Furcolow, Town reads based on
...
TheLonging - Secret reasons. He looks like a loose cannon.

So he clearly knew that the one-shot vig role was named "loose cannon", even though no one else had used that phrase. We know for a fact now that this is true, since Zwet flipped "loose cannon", and singersinger (TheLonging's replacement) also confirmed it.

[Andrius]

Yeah, that's good enough FTM.

Once my laundry is done I'm going to the library and doing rereads for this game and a couple others.

[Yosarian2]

Buuut you were still dead wrong, and I was right in refusing to vote for him.

Sure. Of course, the opposite is also true; you were dead wrong about your instance that dramonic was scum, and I was right in defending dramonic and refusing to vote for him.

[Porochaz]

This game is going relatively fast from when I checked it a couple of hours back. Will look through it tomorrow. Sorry.

[Andrius]

Goddamn. That's the second time I try to play catch-up in a game to find the thread LOCKED.

Reading here now...

[Andrius]

First off, my case:

Scum do Not have a Factional NightKill

Yes, I know that the Scum Role PM says "NightKill". But it also says that the Cerenzia Police Department would be doing the investigations. Well guess what. I'm not a policeman. Perhaps Flay's being tricky.

So. This is how I see the setup:

Scum A Recruiter
Scum A Loose Cannon

Scum B Recruiter
Scum B Loose Cannon

x2 Enforcer
x# Loose Cannons
x# Bodyguards
x# Roleblockers/Bus Drivers/Redirectors

Now you may say "lolol u r dumb Andy. Scum always have a NK." Perhaps they don't. I think of the scum as consisting of their Recruiter and one goon/loose cannon. That way, they can Recruit and still have ONE NK, without throwing the setup into CHAOS (2 scum factions, each with a NK and a recruit would be devastating). So this solves both problems. The scum are guaranteed at least one NK.

Now, the Recruiter and his buddy get to decide who to drag into their scumgroup.
Perhaps they'd like to kill some townies. They'll recruit the Loose Cannons (singersigner, ooba, etc.) And scum would know to recruit ooba because the starting Loose Cannon would have picked up the crumb.
Perhaps they'd like a roleblocker. They can recruit one of those too. (Chrono [?]).
Perhaps they'd like to eliminate a threat to themselves, while hunting for the other scum group. They'd hit the Enforcer. (Me) And with one dead (Furc) they can control all town Cops by having lynched Furcolow and perhaps recruiting me (which they haven't done. And from the looks of things, I'll probably be dead soon anyway.)
They could always get a bodyguard to protect their Recruiter.

Now, the town has to have some power sealed away. Perhaps there's a mason group (with or without a Recruiter of their own).
We'll get a better grip on the setup after tonight, seeing how many kills happen, and if any Vigs claim them.

[Andrius]

Also, deadline is OCTOBER 5.
AND WE ARE NOT GOING TO RANDOMLY LYNCH SOME IDIOT.
YOU ALL WILL CONTRIBUTE, AND WE WILL LYNCH SCUM RECRUITERS.

[singersigner]

Andreus: This was the day 1 breadcrumb. I didn't notice it myself until ooba pointed it out.

After TheLonging had softclaimed one-shot vig in a really obvious way, ooba said this

Furcolow, Town reads based on
...
TheLonging - Secret reasons. He looks like a loose cannon.

So he clearly knew that the one-shot vig role was named "loose cannon", even though no one else had used that phrase. We know for a fact now that this is true, since Zwet flipped "loose cannon", and singersinger (TheLonging's replacement) also confirmed it.

Mmmmm. That makes a lot more sense.

Holster

Rethinking. Thoughts to come later.

[Yosarian2]

Um...I still don't get your actions, singer; YOU were the one who confirmed his role. Why were you voting him, again?

[xvart]

So I had a thought; if I'm NK'd tonight, (barring any protection), there's probably only one scum-group. Because if there are 2, they'd possibly keep me around to hunt for each other? Especially if they can recruit me?

This doesn't really make sense. First, the ridiculous speculation on only one scum team? I suppose it is plausible; but the flavor, unless completely convoluted, suggests pretty clearly that there are two cult factions. Second, with you death how does that suggest only one scum group? With one or two scum groups either one would want you dead as long as you haven't been recruited to that group. Your death suggests that you were not a member of the scum group that killed you (unless you were shot by a town loose cannon which would be stupid) but it does not come close to suggesting that there is only one scum group.

Ugh. And no one better suggest a massclaim. That'd help the scum pick out what they want.

Was there a reason to think that someone might suggest a mass claim at this point? Isn't this pretty obvious?

Question: how many days do you think the town can allow 2 cult recruiters to both survive and still have a reasonable chance of winning?

IMHO, The realistic answer is probably somewhere between 3 or 4. If both cult recruiters are still alive on day 5, we're talking up to 10 potential recruits; that's a worst case scenerio, but I don't really see town winning if both cult recruiters are still alive on day 5, even if we manage to lynch or vig a recruit or two before then.

So, in a 17 person game, we've got perhaps 3 chances to lynch a cult recruiter (today, tommorow, day 4) , or else town probably loses. Considering that we're talking about only 2/17 odds of hitting one if we lynch randomly today, the odds are not in our favor here, unless we get smart and put "lynching at least one cult recruiter" as our absolutely #1 priority.

Basically, looking at the numbers, I consider any argument in the form of "we shouldn't lynch X because he's probably not the recruiter" to be incredibly strong, because we don't have many chances left to lynch a cult recruiter and win. And I still don't see any likely scenerio here where ooba is a cult recruiter; the most likely scenerio here are that he's telling the truth about being a loose cannon, that he used his kill last night, and that he may or may not have been recruited at some point. If so, then we don't want to lynch him.

I see your point. But I fail to see why Faraday is likely recruiter beyond doubt; and unless I'm convinced that someone is actually a recruiter I'm satisfied with lynching a recruited person instead of someone who might not be either recruiter or recruited.

Andy - your post here is so ironic since you called me out for encouraging RC earlier in the day.

At this point, I'm almost positive Ooba is not a cult recruiter. In fact, if I had to guess, I'd guess that he's probably still town; it's possible he could have been recruited after he made the kill last night, but it's really not all that likely.

This is good posting. This I understand as to why ooba is not recruited. And regardless, as long as loose canons are only one shot and Ooba is telling the truth about shooting zwet then he is basically vanilla so he isn't a threat to be recruited.

Holster

Andy - why are you still speculating on scum having a NK or not? The way I see it is that if the cults have to recruit loose canons to submit their NKs then there are probably a fairly large number of loose canons, which, if they all submitted their action night one could be a total disaster. Additionally, if you think this, then do you think we should ask all the loose canons to use their double vote during the day so they don't have the option of recruiting a NK?

I'm starting to think that Andy has certainly been recruited. He seems to go out of the way to try and explain how he is town, speculates on things that make the cults less powerful and thus providing misinformation to the town.

xvart.

[Andrius]

Ugh. I forgot that you're in this game still. You or Erg0 tonight, probably. Going to test some gut reads. [/WIFOM]

Was there a reason to think that someone might suggest a mass claim at this point? Isn't this pretty obvious?

The way we were sitting here outing PRs. Like, 4 a day. :S

Andy - why are you still speculating on scum having a NK or not? The way I see it is that if the cults have to recruit loose canons to submit their NKs then there are probably a fairly large number of loose canons, which, if they all submitted their action night one could be a total disaster. Additionally, if you think this, then do you think we should ask all the loose canons to use their double vote during the day so they don't have the option of recruiting a NK?

Because gandalf brought it up.
Obviously it'd be bad, but these games are always swingy. But then the mafia would have no kills, and we can sit here and lynch at will.
I'll let the loose cannons act according to their own thoughts. Yeah, we'd be outing a shitload of loose cannons, but we'd lose alot of vigs.

I'm starting to think that Andy has certainly been recruited. He seems to go out of the way to try and explain how he is town, speculates on things that make the cults less powerful and thus providing misinformation to the town.

lol Because they'd go ahead and kill dramonic while keeping me alive for recruiting? I feel like recruiting a bodyguard would be a top priority for me as scum in here. :/

I'm speculaiting. At least I'm posting, as compared to lurking like other players.

[ooba]

I like the setup spec .. Scum starting with a loose cannon makes sense ..

In fact, I think scum might have also had a choice to recruit any of the roles (LC, Roleblocker, BG) during N0 .. Something without the player name mentioned ..

"You have the choice to take aside one person entering the Calagesi villa and talking to them. Who do you wish to talk to?
- A, who was a trusted bodyguard of your father and made sure he was never in harm's way
- B, who was too aggressive for his own good but no one denied that the last bullet in his gun would be useful
- C, who had the power to stop men in their tracks with his words"

So if the person chose B, one of the LCs would have been recruited at random.

Also I see four LCs in this game total ..

[singersigner]

Um...I still don't get your actions, singer; YOU were the one who confirmed his role. Why were you voting him, again?

I was voting for him because at the time, I thought he was recruited (still figuring out how that works, sorry) based on what everyone else was saying about recruitment, and the fact that I didn't believe there were three loose canons in the game. But it seems to me that he wouldn't have admitted to the kill or pointed out TL's soft-claim if he was shooting for the other team. I also didn't realize he had pointed out the "loose-canon" reference before zwet's kill, which would've cleared all suspicions that he just took a claim from someone who already flipped. I probably should've unvoted sooner, but there wasn't a serious threat as of yet, and I needed that confusion cleared up first.

[Friend]

Okay posting to avoid proddage.

@Mod: You told me it was my second, but I haven't had one before - the one you gave me was "unofficial."

First, then - point is, post more. Flay

Can someone catch me up?

I feel lost.

[Andrius]

Read the game, Friend. :S

[Andrius]

Oddly enough, I was going to say 4 LC's as well, but who knows for sure?

[Faraday]

Not gonna be around much tomorrow, or today from now on. Sorry.

[Erg0]

It's a choice between singer and Chrono right now. I'd like to hear an explanation from singer about his ooba vote, which doesn't seem all that well-reasoned to me. Chrono is more outright scummy, though.

Aim: Chronopie

So just "Outright Scummy"?

No reasons, nothing to refute, just hoping on the wagon?

I can say, with 100% honesty, that I am not a recruiter, nor have I been recruited. After all, I've made my role clear enough that I

almost

qualify for a share in Andy's bakery

Read my previous post, 1574. In case you still haven't picked up on this: role does not prove alignment in this game.