Mini 1046 - Murder in the Desert (Game Over!)

[Nicodemus]

Vote Count 4.04

Socrates

(1): WeaponsofMassConstruction

WeaponsofMassConstruction

(1): DemonHybrid

Not Voting:

boberz, charter, Slaxx, Socrates, Xine

4

to lynch.

Deadline for D4 can be found here

[WeaponsofMassConstruction]

So, I'm running with number one, and, some extra thinking I have to go with that, is that I HIGHLY doubt that an experienced player would have done that. I think that rules out Socrates. No killing as mafia is really a terrible play, even getting caught making the kill is better than no killing. (I understand how it looks like I'm trying to rule myself out using this, but that won't be the case)

What, nobody else caught how wrong this was?

Date joined, this site:
boberz - Nov 15, 2009
charter - July 12, 2007
DH - June 1, 2010
Slaxx - Jan 1, 2010
Socrates - Oct 9, 2009
Weapons - Jan 16, 2010
Xine - June 21, 2010

Of the non-prs, non-charters, there is a three month gap between the most experienced and least experienced. This is also discounting offsite experience, and IIRC, we haven't talked about that in this thread, which makes the quoted conclusion nearly as dumb as its implication.

[DemonHybrid]

Yes. That's because mafia experience starts at mafiascum.

I'm glad I found a good lynch.

[WeaponsofMassConstruction]

*facedesk*

[charter]

Also, join date is relatively independent to experience. However, I didn't actually look at Boberz's experience, and I see he's about the same as Socrates, I just remember playing in a bunch of games with Socrates and never seen Boberz before.

Regardless, I don't think an experienced scumbag would have no killed and given the town another lynch. Even if you get caught, the reward is worth the risk. To continue what I was saying earlier, I think you have to kill as scum in the situation that was last night. I also think they had to kill Xine. Even if you get tracked making the kill, the game would go down to:
night three - kill Xine
day four - lynch a scumbag
night four - kill Demon
day four, you're left with Slaxx and three of Charter, Weapons, Socrates, Boberz, so you're scum and you've successfully made it to LYLO and now you just need to finagle one more lynch to win.

What actually happened was this
night three - no kill
day four - lynch one of Charter, Weapons, Socrates, Boberz - (50% chance of hitting scum, 66% chance for the two townies in this group)
night five - the mafia is in the same position. If scum got lynched day four, then they are finished, if not, it's the exact same scenario for them as night three, except that there's an even higher chance of them getting tracked.
day five - would be LYLO, so town would have to lynch correctly. If demon tracked someone making a kill, it's game for town.

So basically by no killing, they just increased the chance they will get lynched since they gave town another lynch.

As such, I think Weapons is likely to be scum who was afraid of being tracked. Case coming soon.

[charter]

And this is all aside from the gigantic benefit of if one scum got tracked last night while the other made the kill. That probably would have been game winning for them. But I don't think they thought of that.

[WeaponsofMassConstruction]

Do you think I would think Xine would track me when Lowell flipped town?

And how long has Socrates been in this business?

[Slaxx]

How long have you been waiting to play that card?

[charter]

Clearly he's been waiting a while.

I think you were worried, especially after your hammer fiasco, where you basically flat out refused, then someone told you to, and you immediately did.

[WeaponsofMassConstruction]

And this experience speculation is bullshit anyway. Socrates and boberz are apparently experienced enough to know that nk'ing is statistically bad; I've played enough games on various sites to know that it's bad, and I know Slaxx has played on EM for long enough to know that it's bad. So it's bad.

[Slaxx]

Hell yeah I was rocking a 70 something win % on my alt....dont mind the fact that it was only like a 30 game sample size >>

Also WOMC, your defending reeked of lolscum trying to defend a townie for town cred. The fact that you pulled it out today as a defense to a (baseless WIFOM) accusation doesnt help the case.

Can you just summarize why you thought he was town one more time?

[WeaponsofMassConstruction]

Can you just summarize why you thought he was town one more time?

*grumbles*

I felt a very strong town energy emanating from Lowell's spot at the bar. Translation: gut; also self-confidence read in Lowell.

[Slaxx]

That just doesn't cut it for me. Why is self confidence a town tell to you?

[charter]

Can you just summarize why you thought he was town one more time?

*grumbles*

I felt a very strong town energy emanating from Lowell's spot at the bar. Translation: gut; also self-confidence read in Lowell.

So why did you hammer him then? It clearly wasn't that "very strong".

[charter]

I mean, reread page 37. Demon highlights your wishywashiness, then you make the ridiculous post of wanting to wait 12 days for a no lynch, then you turn right around and hammer Lowell.

[WeaponsofMassConstruction]

That just doesn't cut it for me. Why is self confidence a town tell to you?

Self-confidence in the fact that he was town. He didn't post like he needed to prove he was such.

Also, know I remember this:

Also, why does Lowell look townish? Again, explanation would be nice here.

This quote makes me confident that Lowell is town. Parama is also town for obvious reasons.

I would agree with DH that Bub asked a lot about why people were voting boberz, and though most of it was directed at CES, he was defending more than attacking, which is enough to revise my day 1 opinion.

Vote: boberz

*facedesk*

[DemonHybrid]

You were pretty vehement for a gut town read.

It's just an obvious scramble for pro-town points. I'm liking a Soc/WOMC scumteam.

Preview Edit: You realize that you've posted no evidence to back up your Lowell read...except one example. And it was the weakest.

The more you say "Lowell is town. Gut read." and "Bub said this. So town read." makes us believe that it's unnatural.

[WeaponsofMassConstruction]

Okay, on page 37, I got really pissed, and hammered to prove me right. That probably wasn't the best thing to do, but with DH in ugh mode and Slaxx egging, shit happens.

PREVIEW EDIT: MY GOD DH, YOU'RE TERRIBLE AT THIS GAME. MY GUT IS ALL POWERFUL.

[DemonHybrid]

I'm sure.

[Slaxx]

I want Soc input for any decisions are made.

[DemonHybrid]

Good luck. Soc's been missing from every game.

[WeaponsofMassConstruction]

You know what would be hilarious? If DH was scum. That would be hilarious.

Right now, it's just plain sad.

[DemonHybrid]

You know what would be hilarious? If DH was scum. That would be hilarious.

Right now, it's just plain sad.

The only confirmed PR is a Watcher. Tracker claims. I wait to claim, everyone else claims Townie, and I claim Doctor. Doctor, Watcher, Tracker; completely plausible set of town PRs. So are you trying to push suspicion on me? Cause THAT would be funny.

[DemonHybrid]

By the way, someone protect me tonight now that I'm outted. We're going to need it.

Attempt to push Doctor suspicion onto others to protect myself in order to protect Xine that night. If this wasn't obvious to you, you need to re-evaluate your mafia skills.

[WeaponsofMassConstruction]

You know what would be hilarious? If DH was scum. That would be hilarious.

Right now, it's just plain sad.

The only confirmed PR is a Watcher. Tracker claims. I wait to claim, everyone else claims Townie, and I claim Doctor. Doctor, Watcher, Tracker; completely plausible set of town PRs. So are you trying to push suspicion on me? Cause THAT would be funny.

No. I am anger.