Last Will Mafia II (Over)

[Chronopie]

EBWODP: And if you plan lynching me anyway, give me time to get my will in order.

[Fishythefish]

unvote, vote: Chronopie

Doc claims are a massive scumtell.

@mod and others

An access note: I fly to the USA for a couple of weeks on Wednesday morning. My access times and levels will change. I don't know how. I hope and think I'll be able to carry on playing this game, and if not I'll try to inform you ASAP. I'll certainly be able to submit any actions I may or may not have in the upcoming night (this sentence in no way constitutes a claim of anything, and is being posted in any other games I may or may not be playing).

[LlamaFluff]

End of Day Vote Count

Chronopie (12) – Jahudo, Locke Lamora, Rhinox, Nachomamma8, kmd4390, holycon, Fishythefish
Plum (7) – Ythan, esurispiritus, kunkstar7, Battosuai
Fishythefish (2) – Charlie, Plum

Not Voting (2) – Chronopie


Chronopie is strung up, as you all hope to have eventually found some evil amongst you, you search his house. There you find a very nice outfit of black clothes. Not very good for the early October heat, very good for sneaking around though

Chronopie – One Shot Columbian Mafia Ninja – Lynched Day Five

His votes go to Ythan, who now has six votes to his name

It is now night five. Deadline for actions is Thursday October 7th, 6PM PST

[LlamaFluff]

Hello to all of you! By all I mean all.

No one died night five

With 23 votes in play it takes 12 votes to lynch
Deadline is October 21st, 8PM PST

[Ythan]

One shot Colombian? Two things. What does that mean, and by Columbian (and not Colombian) do you mean that he is from my birthday of Columbia, South Carolina and not the country of Colombia?

[Jahudo]

I read it as he was a one shot ninja in the columbian mafia.

The Chronopie flip makes me think Fishy is less likely to be a buddy of his, so I'm even less interesting in voting him today. Chrono stalled the SSBF wagon when Animorph was only slightly less of a wagon. I'm less sure what it meant for Chrono to join the Plum wagon then. It looks like a safe time for him to distance or show support for a wagon that could go to lynch another day.

----------
@Charlie: Why was Chronopie so neutral for you?

----------
@holycon: Why did you vote Chrono over Plum? You called Plum scummy yesterday but didn't mention Chrono yesterday until your intent to vote, so I'm wondering what made you find him scummier.

----------
@Nachomamma: Why did you vote your town? It was 3 days before deadline. Was Plum a stronger town read for you? What did your Ani/Fishy read end up being yesterday, or were you still not sure?

---------
@Rhinox: What did this quote mean?

Seeing that chrono is finally getting some attention, I want to unvote, vote chrono.

I know you were gung-ho for a Chrono lynch in the earlier days, but I didn't get that vibe from you yesterday. I thought you were moving your read of him to center, so why act like he still deserved attention?

[Jahudo]

EBWOP:

Nacho: Why did you vote your town

read

?

[holycon]

I read it as he was a one shot ninja in the columbian mafia.

The Chronopie flip makes me think Fishy is less likely to be a buddy of his, so I'm even less interesting in voting him today. Chrono stalled the SSBF wagon when Animorph was only slightly less of a wagon. I'm less sure what it meant for Chrono to join the Plum wagon then. It looks like a safe time for him to distance or show support for a wagon that could go to lynch another day.

----------
@Charlie: Why was Chronopie so neutral for you?

----------

@holycon: Why did you vote Chrono over Plum? You called Plum scummy yesterday but didn't mention Chrono yesterday until your intent to vote, so I'm wondering what made you find him scummier.

----------
@Nachomamma: Why did you vote your town? It was 3 days before deadline. Was Plum a stronger town read for you? What did your Ani/Fishy read end up being yesterday, or were you still not sure?

---------
@Rhinox: What did this quote mean?

Seeing that chrono is finally getting some attention, I want to unvote, vote chrono.

I know you were gung-ho for a Chrono lynch in the earlier days, but I didn't get that vibe from you yesterday. I thought you were moving your read of him to center, so why act like he still deserved attention?

if you look back I said Plum has been scummy but that is the only thing i have ever said about plum But chrono to me as i have said several times including a case i made aginst him plum to me had a scummy feel for me but not as much as chrono

[Ythan]

Holy is is not fun to read your posts.

[holycon]

sorry

[Charlie]

Hey peeps, I'd strongly recommend to all those who are town-aligned to go read a bit on Last Will Mafia I. Don't bother if you're mafia. I'll even provide you a link to it in case you're lazy to find it. HERE

The mafia were Egyptian and Swiss there. Now, they appear to be Columbian. Now you may not like setup speculation much, but I like it and will say this: Knowing that this is a sequel, I'd expect some similarities between this and that game; added with something new.
Fun fact 1: Fishy was in that game. He was Town Neighbour.
Fun fact 2: Nacho was in that game. He was Swiss Mafia Tracker.

... I need time to read that game. I'm having doubts about Fishy being mafia now.

@Charlie: Why was Chronopie so neutral for you?

He felt like passive player; staying in the sidelines. Kinda what I'm aiming for but that's beside the point.

[Charlie]

Nice red panda, Jahudo.

[Ythan]

I like your post for once but what is the point of your two fun facts?

[Charlie]

Technically I'm ignoring you but whatever.

I'll need to read up on that game first before I can draw conclusions from those facts. I've put those up there because I feel strongly about those points; hopefully someone will pick up signs of those two jokers' alignment based on it. (I hate meta. It takes too much work and does not really pay off for me. Perhaps someone else may make use of it; I'll at least

try

to do it myself)

[Ythan]

You feel strongly about what roles they had in the last game?

[Fishythefish]

Access will be fine; turns out the internet has reached the US after all.

If you compare my performance in this game to that in LW1, I'm going to come up rather short. IIRC, I floundered briefly before finding scum, latching onto him and getting him lynched. You'll also find a lot of comments about not building up huge vote stacks, but I haven't been saying that here because I'm not at all convinced it's true when the town are doing so badly (all your eggs in one basket is actually a good strategy if you can't afford to drop any more eggs).

Seems obvious, but I'd very much guess that the "Colombian" thing doesn't signify two mafiates here.

Hmmm. So, if Plum is scum, we wagoned two scumbags yesterday. The other possible wagon was me. Does this sense?

I think that it does. If we have a scumteam like {Chrono, Plum, Holy, kmd/charlie, ?}, say then what did the scum get up to? kmd/charlie went after the third likely lynch, hard. Chrono's play is interesting - he claimed scumreads on both myself and Plum. He pushed my wagon, in a somewhat desperate way (his votes were not counted in the vote count, but he did vote). He could easily have gone after Plum in his position, and if she were town that would have made much more sense. Holy is on that list for Plum connections, but didn't commit to anything until a chrono/Plum lynch was pretty much assured. Plum was voting me. Just after my catchup - which was about peak time for a chances of a fishy lynch - the votecount read:

Vote Count

Plum (5) - Ythan, esuriospiritus
Chronopie (5) - Jahudo, Locke Lamora
Fishythefish (4

6

) - Charlie, kmd4390, Plum

, Chronopie

Nachomamma8 (2) - Rhinox
kmd4390 (1) - Battosuai

Not Voting (6) - Amished, Fishythefish, Chronopie, holycon, nachomamma8

Amished is being replaced

The red being my corrections.

So. My initial reaction to a Chrono flip was to downgrade Plumscum based on their wagons. But I think it really makes a lot of sense, still. If Plum and Chrono are scum - even without Charlie or kmd - the scumteam was fairly committed to my wagon here. Add in one of Charlie and kmd, and you really wouldn't expect any further input when there was so little townie interest.

I'm not at all saying this is compelling evidence. It's more that if you see two wagons in a game where scum has a lot of power you naturally think they are unlikely both to be scum. Here, I think them both being scum does make sense. I still find the raider day 1 affair really damning for Plum. I also feel the need to declare the following secondary reasoning, because it conflicts somewhat with my usual sentiments on links: we are in a bad position. That means we have to pick our lynches extremely well, and that means we have to find a scum

team

, and fast. So I'm seriously upgrading my belief in links in this game; while they aren't better scumtells than normal, they are better reasons for lynching.

vote: Plum

There is at least one player around I am

extremely

confident is town, and a few more that I am fairly confident about, so my will is looking up.

[Charlie]

Haha. "Floundered". Dropping eggs. It is funny coz you're a fish.

Um. Serious stuff. I shall read for a bit.

[Rhinox]

Hey guys. Sorry I wasn't around much yesterday. Hope to be more active today.

Jahudo:

The only reason I ever backed off a bit from chrono was because of this comment by michelsableheart:

Chronopie hasn't contributed much to the game, but he was the one who pointed out that Beloved Princess was missing from the list of roles that died pregame, unlike in LWM 1. It seems unlikely to me that scum will mention that. Scum would prefer to get a mislynch on a Beloved Princess if possible, and therefore wouldn't want to support the claim with evidence.

Ironically, when I voted for chrono, I had completely forgot about that point, so I guess that explains why I still felt chrono deserved attention.

Ythan: your flashing avatar... it burns!!! my eyes... they bleeeeeeed! yet I can't stop staring! AAAARRRGGHHH!


Anyways, anyone have any thoughts on the significance of chrono's vote going to ythan? My first instinct in this game was to policy lynch whoever the scum send their vote to to ensure scum never send their vote to other scum, but after thinking about it some more I'm not sure its the best strategy.

[Battousai]

Rhinox: Of course it's not the best strategy. Otherwise the scum get to control a lynch. Though, that doesn't mean you can't look at ythan with a bit more scrutiny (scumminess, his reads)

Fishy: I agree that there isn't enough evidence to say for certain that there are two mafia groups, and as such, it is best to assume there is not (1 scum team means they have more votes and thus, we will be closer to lylo) until a different faction flips.

Vote: Kmd

Same reasoning as yesterday.

[Jahudo]

I'm happy with Charlie, holy and Rhinox's answers, I can fill in those missing steps in the reasoning and they seem to fit well. Nacho's reasoning is still a mystery to me.

I agree with Batt on Ythan getting Chrono's votes. It doesn't make him a good lynch on its own, and I don't see Ythan as a good lynch anyway right now.

@KMD: Are you still adamant about a Fishy lynch? I want to try and understand all your reads better today and separate what is gut reasoning, what is VCA, and what is from the suspect's posting. So where do I start?

[Nachomamma8]

V/LA until Monday.

[Kmd4390]

I use VCA TM in almost every game I play. Not a scumtell. Get over it.

If you are going to use that as a defense, I would need multiple game links where you've used it as town.

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 46&start=0
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 19&start=0
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 6&start=50
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 6&start=75

That's all I could find, but I know there were a lot more. Probably in the archives. Want me to try finding them?

Also see this thread in MD and ISO me:
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=15242

---------------

EBWODP: And if you plan lynching me anyway, give me time to get my will in order.

unvote, vote: Chronopie

Doc claims are a massive scumtell.

This is absolutely terrible.

Fish, why are doc claims scum tells as opposed to...uh, I dunno, DOC tells?

I know Chro flipped scum, but seeing the name "Columbian", it is possible that we are dealing with multiple scum groups (maybe they kill every other night or one doesn't kill. *Shrug*). What does this mean? Fish can be:
A) Scum, but not with Chro. In this case, he probably wanted to rush the lynch.
B) Scum who decided last second to bus Chro by dropping a possibily imminent hammer.
C) Town who believes all doc claims come from scum

------------------

Jahudo, I was sheeping Charlie on Fish. I still think Fish is scum.

As far as my reads, I don't trust them.

A quick view of the final vote count combined with the unlikliness that every single scum bussed Chro, I'll say there is a scum or two or three in {Ythan, esurispiritus, kunkstar7, Battosuai, Charlie, Plum}. Most likely in {Ythan, esurispiritus, kunkstar7, Battosuai} which is the Plum wagon. Oh, hey, Batt's name again!

[Fishythefish]

Doc claims are good scumtells because scum often claim doc, and you get a lot of scum and very few docs in a game of mafia. Particularly in one like this, where doc + ANY confirmed or trusted town is extremely powerful (for will mechanics reasons), and I've already seen a 1-shot doc power, and there are lots of scum around. I'd be very surprised if there was a doc in this game, and I'd be unsurprised by a scum-claiming-doc being in the game. Hence my great disbelief of the claim. I quickhammered rather than discussed this because part of my thinking was based on information the town doesn't have (eg. my one-shot doc power), so I was in a better position to make a decision than anyone else.

[Kmd4390]

Hold up. What one-shot doc power?

[Fishythefish]

The one that got invented for me, and was claimed first by ani and then by me in 1296 and 2230 respectively. No claim has been made about it's use or lack thereof.