Open 249: Mayo Clinic **Game Over!**

[Katsuki]

Oh nvm, found it.

[warriormode]

smashbro- I think we should not stack if we lynch town and stack if we lynch scum.

[crywolf20084]

Phaen has requested a replacement. I will hold off on the deadline until I find a replacement. After I get a replacement I will give you and the new guy 7 days before night.

[crywolf20084]

esuriospiritus replaces Phaen.

thank you!

You now have 1 week until N2 comes about.

[crywolf20084]

Vote Count: Day 2

5 to lynch someone; 4 to not lynch anyone.

esuriospiritus: (3) (L-2)

Scott Brosius, HackerHuck, JesseSheffield

HackerHuck: (2)

Antihero, Katsuki

Scott Brosius: (2)

esuriospiritus, smashbro_of_the_SSS,

Not Voting

warriormode


Once again, any mistakes, let me know. etc etc

[esuriospiritus]

/obligatory greeting and confirmation of having received role PM

/obligatory

unvote

Totally haven't read a single word of this game yet beyond the first post and probably won't get around to it for another good 16-24 hours either. Today's really busy for me and any free time I

do

have is strictly reserved for hammering out the details for my upcoming mini theme.

I see I'm the leading wagon. Someone mind giving me a Cliff Notes version of why that is? Obviously I can't really explain the actions of my predecessor(s), but it would be nice to know at a glance what they were in so much trouble for.

[HackerHuck]

smashbro- I think we should not stack if we lynch town and stack if we lynch scum.

Seriously? Don't stack regardless. All of the real doctors should be protecting you guys, so a failed vig kill means guaranteed scum.

Esurio - it's a pretty easy read. If you just skip to the start of day 2, that will be a good start.

[Antihero]

At the time Kastuki voted for me, there were four other people who had me on their scum list - WarriorMode, Antihero (with a vote), Phaen, and Scott. Smashbro had yet to comment on me and Jesse really hadn't either. If anything it seems that I would be a pretty easy lynch. That is unless 3 of those 5 are scum and don't want to all be caught lynching town. I guess that might be why someone wouldn't expect my wagon to go anywhere.

This is non sequitur.

I might expect your wagon to not go anywhere because, I don't know, you're not actually getting any votes.

[Scott Brosius]

esurio- Basically your slot has been useless especially D2. Has promised content, provided little to none. Has been active in other games so obviously lurking in this one avoiding prods.

[warriormode]

Hacker and smashbro- If we lynch scum, were at 2v 3t 2m. Scum kill town. so 2v 2t 2m. At this point all we have to do is kill one of them to win. If we stack and kill scum going into next day its 2v 2t 1m, assume we lynch town its 2v 1t 1m, we win if we separate shoots. We stack and kill town N2 its 2v 1t 2m we lynch scum its 2v 1t 1m we win if we separate shoots. If we lynch town its 2v 2m we lose. Right?

So if we want to refer to numbers for this we have a 75% (3/4) chance of winning if we separate shoots N2 and 25% of losing N2. (do I need to explain the math?)
If we stack kills N2, we have a 50% of winning at night + the 50% chance we kill town times the 66% chance we lynch scum and win= 83.3333% (5/6)
Theres a 1/6 chance of us both killing town and lynching town the next day which is the only way we lose when we stack.

Basically we have a slightly better chance of winning if we go by the numbers and stack if we lynch scum.

[JesseSheffield]

Unvote: esurio

[HackerHuck]

Here are the outcomes if you don't stack:
Hit two scum: 2v 2t 0m - win
Hit one scum and scum doctor block: 2v 2t 1m - guaranteed scum lynch for the win
Hit one town and scum doctor block: 2v 1t 2m - guaranteed scum lynch
Hit one town and one scum: 2v 1t 1m
bad vigging: 2v 0t 2m - lose
Unintentional stack hits town: 2v 1t 2m
Unintentional stack hits scum: 2v 2t 1m

The way I see it, you're slightly better off not intentionally stacking - 2/7 guaranteed win, 1/7 chance of losing and the remaining 4/7 chance gives you good odds going into night.
That said, it's not a huge advantage and it's ultimately up to you guys. I tend to prefer not giving the scum any additional information, because it does allow them to alter their strategy. You're assuming that the scum aren't going to risk a non-kill by targeting the vigilantes, but if you stack on a scum target, they might as well take their chances targeting a vig.

At the time Kastuki voted for me, there were four other people who had me on their scum list - WarriorMode, Antihero (with a vote), Phaen, and Scott. Smashbro had yet to comment on me and Jesse really hadn't either. If anything it seems that I would be a pretty easy lynch. That is unless 3 of those 5 are scum and don't want to all be caught lynching town. I guess that might be why someone wouldn't expect my wagon to go anywhere.

This is non sequitur.

I might expect your wagon to not go anywhere because, I don't know, you're not actually getting any votes.

Hindsight is 20/20. How would Katsuki have known that?

Since my wagon isn't going anywhere, how about you do something useful and comment on the two leading wagons - Phaen/Esurio or Scott.

[warriormode]

Here are the outcomes if you don't stack:
Hit two scum: 2v 2t 0m - win
Hit one scum and scum doctor block: 2v 2t 1m - guaranteed scum lynch for the win
Hit one town and scum doctor block: 2v 1t 2m - guaranteed scum lynch
Hit one town and one scum: 2v 1t 1m
bad vigging: 2v 0t 2m - lose
Unintentional stack hits town: 2v 1t 2m
Unintentional stack hits scum: 2v 2t 1m

The way I see it, you're slightly better off not intentionally stacking - 2/7 guaranteed win, 1/7 chance of losing and the remaining 4/7 chance gives you good odds going into night.
That said, it's not a huge advantage and it's ultimately up to you guys. I tend to prefer not giving the scum any additional information, because it does allow them to alter their strategy. You're assuming that the scum aren't going to risk a non-kill by targeting the vigilantes, but if you stack on a scum target, they might as well take their chances targeting a vig.

two things wrong with this:
one were not killing 2 scum at night. mafia doctor is going to protect his buddy. another thing, smashbro and I would not unintentially stack. there's a way to guarantee avoiding that. which leaves 4 outcomes:

Hit one scum and scum doctor block: 2v 2t 1m - guaranteed scum lynch for the win
Hit one town and scum doctor block: 2v 1t 2m - guaranteed scum lynch, then separate night kills for the win.
Hit one town and one scum: 2v 1t 1m- win by next night
bad vigging: 2v 0t 2m - lose

3 ways to win one way to lose. = 75% chance

[Katsuki]

Waiting on esurio, would love to hear what he has to say.

Hacker is still spewing scum logic. If there were ever anything called "scum motivation", it'd be hacker's posts.

It also erks me that hacker keeps trying to call his wagon a "dead wagon that will go nowhere", since I severely disagree with that, especially with the extension we got.

[HackerHuck]

Waiting on esurio, would love to hear what he has to say.

Esurio is a she

Hacker is still spewing scum logic. If there were ever anything called "scum motivation", it'd be hacker's posts.

I think you need to explain this better, otherwise Warriordude and SmashBro might listening to said 'scum motivation' and following my scum logic. If you're really town, you would back up that accusation with some facts.

It also erks me that hacker keeps trying to call his wagon a "dead wagon that will go nowhere", since I severely disagree with that, especially with the extension we got.

Please read more carefully. Antihero is the one who stated that my wagon is a dead one that is going nowhere.

Your wagon is small and probably not going anywhere. Kat's "interest in wagoning" you doesn't mean you're on opposite teams. In fact, since your wagon probably isn't going anywhere, it looks more like a bus.

Really? Why would someone think that my wagon wouldn't go anywhere? Let's look at who has suspected me since Day 2 began.

At the time Kastuki voted for me, there were four other people who had me on their scum list - WarriorMode, Antihero (with a vote), Phaen, and Scott. Smashbro had yet to comment on me and Jesse really hadn't either. If anything it seems that I would be a pretty easy lynch. That is unless 3 of those 5 are scum and don't want to all be caught lynching town. I guess that might be why someone wouldn't expect my wagon to go anywhere.

This is non sequitur.

I might expect your wagon to not go anywhere because, I don't know, you're not actually getting any votes.

---

two things wrong with this:
one were not killing 2 scum at night. mafia doctor is going to protect his buddy. another thing, smashbro and I would not unintentially stack. there's a way to guarantee avoiding that. which leaves 4 outcomes:

Hit one scum and scum doctor block: 2v 2t 1m - guaranteed scum lynch for the win
Hit one town and scum doctor block: 2v 1t 2m - guaranteed scum lynch, then separate night kills for the win.
Hit one town and one scum: 2v 1t 1m- win by next night
bad vigging: 2v 0t 2m - lose

3 ways to win one way to lose. = 75% chance

Have some optimism. We could lynch the mafia doc today. If you have a way to avoid unintentionally stacking without telling the scum who you are targeting, I would agree. Otherwise, you don't want to tip off the scum for who you're targeting. That way if you do target town, they may inadvertently stack with you.

---

Katsuki - I'm not forgetting this. It shouldn't be too hard for you to comment on since he's only posted four or five times today. I'll even make it easier for you by quoting the post I keep asking you about.

Antihero has been :goodposting: today, hence why my attention has been focused elsewhere, like on hackerscum for example. I have yet to find anything scummy in antihero posts today, though I too am rather curious as to why he still finds me scummy.

Really?
I'm now very curious what you find to be :goodposting: Could you link/quote some of that?
I'm also wondering what happened to this-

Erg.

I will see if I have the energy for analysis tonight. I have another I must get to first though.

My top suspects are as follows
Hacker - For D2 comments. I think I explained some of it already. He is my top candidate.
Scott - Accuses me of doing nothing when his own iso is essentially empty. Seems like coasting scum imo.

Antihero: Useless player. Knows nothing but misrep.

Phaen is prob town imo. Need to look at her though.
Jesse is most likely town as well.

I REALLY THINK, THOUGH, THAT WHAT OUR VIG'S THINK ARE MOST IMPORTANT. CONFIRMED THEY ARE, NONE OF THE REST OF US ARE.

So you've recently said that you think Scott is more town than Phaen, you're now saying that Antihero is :goodposting:. I get that you think I'm scum and maybe that earlier comment means you think that Phaen is scummy now. If that's the case, then who is your new third scum?

[Katsuki]

Back up with fact? I already posted about the stack/no-stack situation thanks.

and what is it that you want me to answer in there? I do not get what you want.

[HackerHuck]

Back up with fact? I already posted about the stack/no-stack situation thanks.

I had to check, but I found that you did comment on stacking kills. I'd just like to know how it differs from my 'scum logic'?

We don't need vigs both targetting the same person imo. If one of the targets doesn't die, then we lynch them, simple as.

This would allow us to find scum faster.

smashbro- I think we should not stack if we lynch town and stack if we lynch scum.

Seriously? Don't stack regardless. All of the real doctors should be protecting you guys, so a failed vig kill means guaranteed scum.

Katsuki - keep reading all the way to the bottom.

and what is it that you want me to answer in there? I do not get what you want.

Are you deliberately being difficult? There were only four lines of my own comments in that quote. How hard was it to find the question? I'll even let you off the hook for the second half of that post. The bolded part should make it very clear what I'm after. I want to know

why

you think that Antihero was :goodposting:

Antihero has been :goodposting: today, hence why my attention has been focused elsewhere, like on hackerscum for example. I have yet to find anything scummy in antihero posts today, though I too am rather curious as to why he still finds me scummy.

Really?

I'm now very curious what you find to be :goodposting: Could you link/quote some of that?

[Katsuki]

Oh HELL NO DON'T YOU MISREP ME, HACKER.

IN CLASS, WILL DIG UP THE POSTS I NEED WHEN I CAN. I HAD GIANT CHUNKS OF THEORY EXPLAINING WHY WE SEPERATE IF WE LYNCH SCUM, STACK IF WE MISLYNCH.
SAME WITH THAT LITTLE THING YOU WANT FROM ME.

[HackerHuck]

Oh HELL NO DON'T YOU MISREP ME, HACKER.

IN CLASS, WILL DIG UP THE POSTS I NEED WHEN I CAN. I HAD GIANT CHUNKS OF THEORY EXPLAINING WHY WE SEPERATE IF WE LYNCH SCUM, STACK IF WE MISLYNCH.
SAME WITH THAT LITTLE THING YOU WANT FROM ME.

Misrep? Is that not one of

your

quotes in its entirety? I'd like to know how that could possibly be misrep.



If you've somehow changed your mind and think stack is better, prove how I'm wrong with my math or assumptions. Warriormode did just that, but now he thinks it's a 75% of winning if we don't stack. What is it that we're missing?

You don't have to convince me, just the two vigilantes.

[Katsuki]

It is misrep, because you are trying to associate the stuff you've said to mine, and present it as if we're saying the same thing.

WHICH IS TOTAL BULLSHIT.

Changed my mind? I already posted what I thought about that thanks. You can stop with your games, hacker. Read what I said, I will go dig it up when I am done with classes.

On that thought, I really can't see how twisting words and truths is town in any way. That is what scum do, and this is what hacker has been doing since the fucking start of this day.

[HackerHuck]

It is misrep, because you are trying to associate the stuff you've said to mine, and present it as if we're saying the same thing.

How are these not the same thing? If they're not the same thing, you don't need to look at whatever else you've posted to explain how they're different.

We don't need vigs both targetting the same person imo. If one of the targets doesn't die, then we lynch them, simple as.

This would allow us to find scum faster.

smashbro- I think we should not stack if we lynch town and stack if we lynch scum.

Seriously? Don't stack regardless. All of the real doctors should be protecting you guys, so a failed vig kill means guaranteed scum.

You've been caught in a lie and now you're flailing. Same thing with your :goodposting: comment about Antihero. There aren't any examples, so you're trying to make a bunch of noise so that people will forget about it.

[Katsuki]

HACKER, YOU ARE A LIAR, PLAIN AND SIMPLE.

ME GETTING CAUGHT IN

YOUR

LIE IS DUE TO YOUR MISREP. I COULD CATCH YOU IN LIES IF ALL I DID WAS TWIST YOUR POSTS AND WORDS.

Simple.

Because it is important that we LYNCH scum first.

Our vig's NK actions are less relevant if we can lynch scum, because if we do, we are left with 5/2. Then, as we have a 2/3/2 format left going into the night, I do not see how we can lose, especially if we have the vig's stack their shots (which SHOULD be done if we lynch scum). That way, at worst, we go into D3 with a 2/1/2 format, and by that point, it should hopefully be a easy town win, what with 2 scum and just 1 doc left.

This is why I find your suggestion insanely scummy, as proposing having doc's lead the scumhunting today increases the chances of mislynching, which is incredibly beneficial for scum.

We SHOULD be focusing on LYNCHING scum first, and THEN worrying about the NK.

Obviously that will come when we have come to an intent to lynch (the discussion of NKs). If someone does not get killed, its not hard to conclude that they were scum. Or just have vig's agree to doubleshot. Your continued emphasis on vigs not scumhunting due to NKs is imo, quite funny.

I would rather focus on going into the night with 2 scum remaining. I fail to see how this is short-sighted, as this is a very important first step.

The vig's don't have any better idea than the 3 town docs, but the 3 scum-docs know who is/isn't. Hence, you are increasing their voice in a 3/3 format vs a 3/5 format.

Re: Scum protecting vs Vig kill

This is why I suggested potentially double-shooting.

[HackerHuck]

HACKER, YOU ARE A LIAR, PLAIN AND SIMPLE.

ME GETTING CAUGHT IN

YOUR

LIE IS DUE TO YOUR MISREP. I COULD CATCH YOU IN LIES IF ALL I DID WAS TWIST YOUR POSTS AND WORDS.

Where's the misrep? What does your bolded bit have to do with stacking? If I'm lying, you should be able to point to it.

Where is this?

I HAD GIANT CHUNKS OF THEORY EXPLAINING WHY WE SEPERATE IF WE LYNCH SCUM, STACK IF WE MISLYNCH.

What about this?

Hacker is still spewing scum logic. If there were ever anything called "scum motivation", it'd be hacker's posts.

If you weren't referring to my comments on stacking, then what scum logic am I still spewing?


Antihero is still ignoring this game.

[Katsuki]

ARE YOU FUCKING PURPOSEFULLY TRYING TO BE ILLITERATE, OR ARE YOU JUST NORMALLY THIS MUCH OF A WISEASS?

NO SHIT YOU ARE MISREPPING, YOU DIDN'T EVEN FUCKING QUOTE THE STUFF WHERE I WAS TALKING ABOUT STACKING VIG SHOTS, USED SOMETHING ELSE TO SAY THAT "OH HAI KAT YOU DIDN'T SAY STACK VIG SHOT, MY THOUGHTS ARE SAME AS YOURS"

STRAIGHT FUCKING BULLSHIT

READ MY FUCKING POST WHERE I QUOTED THE STUFF, I AM POINTING OUT YOUR DAMN FUCKING LIES. IT WAS ALREADY A RESPONSE TO AN EARLIER SCUM-LOGIC POST OF YOURS.


SOMEONE DEAL WITH THIS ASSCLOWN. I HAVE LITTLE DOUBTS THAT HE IS BEING ILLITERATE ON PURPOSE.

[esuriospiritus]

I KNOW CURSING LIKE A SAILOR AND USING CAPS LOCK IS FUN AND ALL AND SOMETIMES I DO IT TOO BUT IF YOU DO IT TOO MUCH IT LOSES ITS POTENCY A LITTLE. JUST FYI.

Anyway, posting to let you know I'm finally getting around to reading and shit. Expect a post ... soon?