/Invitational 11: Pick your Poison 5 (Game Over)

[mith]

Ok, that's everyone except Plumegranate (already claimed) and Seraphim (MIA). Moving on...

I return to post 1328. What initially caught my eye on this post was the "mith is still alive, maybe he's scum" implication (yuck, but especially odd at that point in the game since the scum had two very good reasons for leaving me alive - I was under lynch pressure from a confirmed innocent, and there were two power roles outed night 2 for them to target instead). But what stuck with me was that, as VasudeVa was making that argument, he made the assumption that the night 2 scum kill was Herodotus. Why would a townie assume that, particularly in making the argument he was making? (The argument falls apart entirely if the scum kill was instead Elmo, a Vig.) So, I see two possibilities:

1. Either he was the Vig, and killed Elmo... but killing Elmo means he also killed tajo, in which case he shouldn't assume tajo was the night 1 scumkill. (Further, I think HackerHuck would have claimed - given the pressure he's been under, he has no reason to think he will survive two days.)
2. VasudeVa (and thus HackerHuck) is scum, and knew the scumkill was Herodotus.

I was hesitant on this yesterday - obviously, I won't say whether this is because I'm a VT (and thought it most likely there was only one Vig, in which case that post couldn't be a slip, and was in fact a town-tell since VV-scum would have to be awfully subtle to posit a Herodotus scumkill knowing the scum killed Elmo) or because I'm the Vig (and have been playing a variety of WIFOM mindgames with the scum to keep them off me). But now we have public confirmation of a two-Vig setup, and I think this is a pretty damning slip on the part of VV.

(tl;dr: SpyreX and Seraphim were right all along.)

PokerFace is my number two (I've talked myself out of the MME-ignorance argument - it occurs that MME could have been aware that a fake claim was happening without being aware that DGB was going to retract it), and I think HackerHuck's vote is likely distancing (if he's not distancing from PokerFace, he's probably distancing from Plumegranate, which would make me sad). Somewhat busy this week, but hoping to have time to sit down, read, and think about this game - can't shake the feeling that I'm missing something.

VOTE: HackerHuck

[HackerHuck]

Mith - I can't really respond to what you've posted since most of it relates to VV's behaviour. I would like you to look at my wagon yesterday and see if it makes sense that a scum-hacker would have gone to L-1 and then had the wagon dissipate the way it did. I'm going to do the same thing, but I'm curious to see what your take on it will be.

[mith]

I don't expect you to respond, Mr. Huck, I expect you to die.

(I'm not voting for you solely because of a VV-slip; as pointed out yesterday, I find you suspicious for your stance on DGB - 1530, in particular - and I think AdumbroDeus made a valid point in twilight. But yes, it's unfortunate for you that VV's play factors heavily... though that doesn't make you any less scum.)

...I'm not really sure what your point is on your wagon. Which type of wagon do you think is more likely to dissipate, a town-HH wagon or a scum-HH wagon? Likely scenario - scum-HH gets some heat, either legitimate or bus-heat from one or both of his scumbuddies, gets to L-1 from wagon momentum, it dissipates when Fate decides to go rogue and the confirmed innocent joins him (possibly giving scum an opportunity to get off the wagon - PokerFace or SpyreX).

[SpyreX]

Mith - I can't really respond to what you've posted since most of it relates to VV's behaviour. I would like you to look at my wagon yesterday and see if it makes sense that a scum-hacker would have gone to L-1 and then had the wagon dissipate the way it did. I'm going to do the same thing, but I'm curious to see what your take on it will be.

Did you just really imply that a scum wagon wouldn't dissipate?

I'm glad this is finally happening. It only took three shades past forever.

[Patrick]

Votecount

Seraphim (1) -- Fate
PokerFace (1) -- HackerHuck
HackerHuck (2) -- SpyreX, mith

Not voting: PokerFace, Plumegranate, ooba, iamausername, Seraphim
9 alive, lynch at 5

[iamausername]

Going to reread and put in the effort that I really ought to have done yesterday, but I think it's deeply unlikely that I'll vote anyone but HackerHuck today.

[Fate]

WAS THAT ANOTHER HH WAGON I SAW FORMING?

[Fate]

Either I am a (Vanilla) Townsperson, or I am the Vig and think there is enough of a chance that I can get two shots off to warrant my staying hidden.

IT IS TIME TO DO THIS RIGHT DAMNIT FATE

AND WHEN HE FLIPS TOWN THEN WHAT?

YOU'LL BE ALL "ZOMG VEZOK WAS TOWN??" AND SULK THE REST OF THE DAMN GAME INSTEAD OF BEING OBVTOWN.


LYNCH SERAPHIM, DO I NEED TO QUOTE MY FIRST POST WHERE I SAID IT WOULD CONFIRM IAM+HH???

OR OOBA OF COURSE, BUT APPARENTLY MITH IS TOO POWERFUL AND WON'T ALLOW SUCH A FEAT TO BE ACCOMPLISHED BY MERE MORTALS.

[SpyreX]

IAM is town regardless. One of those special snowflakes.

Sooooo if a scum Sera flip confirms HH like you've been saying and a scum VV flip confirms Sera...

ARENT WE DOING THE SAME THING

I'd be down for Ooba BUT I WANT THIS GIVE ME IT PLEASE

[Fate]

VOTE: HACKERFUCKINGHUCK

[Plumegranate]

Either I am a (Vanilla) Townsperson, or I am the Vig and think there is enough of a chance that I can get two shots off to warrant my staying hidden.

IT IS TIME TO DO THIS RIGHT DAMNIT FATE

AND WHEN HE FLIPS TOWN THEN WHAT?

YOU'LL BE ALL "ZOMG VEZOK WAS TOWN??" AND SULK THE REST OF THE DAMN GAME INSTEAD OF BEING OBVTOWN.


LYNCH SERAPHIM, DO I NEED TO QUOTE MY FIRST POST WHERE I SAID IT WOULD CONFIRM IAM+HH???

OR OOBA OF COURSE, BUT APPARENTLY MITH IS TOO POWERFUL AND WON'T ALLOW SUCH A FEAT TO BE ACCOMPLISHED BY MERE MORTALS.

I would be happy to lynch ooba today with you but welp, you haven't even voted him today so it was off the table before it even got to my plate.

Also maybe ego but I'm torn regarding mith's catch. On the one hand I'm not a scumslips kinda gal (we've been through this before) but on the other hand wacky scum gambitz have been in effect so it's that much more likely to end up causing confused scum to say something wrong about that (I'm picturing VV going 'ohcrudohcrudohcrud' in the scum quicktopic'). And yet and yet my question about VV scum is קל וחומר'd given that we have two Vigs.

I'm thinking too hard. Should probably just listen to the smart people. I mean, two of my favorite nice Townies, mith and Spy, have just AGREED that someone is obvscum, which is a nice warm fuzzy feeling.

Sleeping on it.

[HackerHuck]

Did you just really imply that a scum wagon wouldn't dissipate?

Not at all. For any wagon to dissipate, players need to shift the momentum to someone else. I'm saying that it's most likely that the scum would be driving the shift from scum to town, especially with daytalk. Look at how Adumbro's wagon developed and who drove it. Where do your other scum/town sit on that list? It's a little hard for me to do this objectively since I know my alignment, which is why I'm asking you guys to do it.

This was not looking at context for the moment and just looking at the votecount progressions...

===================================
Sunday October 3rd, 2010 8:05
Votecount

HackerHuck

(6) -- PokerFace, iamausername, SpyreX, Seraphim, Fate,

AdumbroDeus

Not voting: mith,

Ellibereth

,

Kmd4390

, ooba, Plumegranate,

HackerHuck

===================================
If I'm scum, I would expect someone to hammer here to get some town cred. That's especially true if there aren't any scum on my wagon. If there are two scum already on the wagon then it wouldn't make sense. Mith - do you see this as PokerFace and Spyrex bussing me?
===================================
Tuesday October 5th, 2010 14:35
Votecount

HackerHuck

(4) -- PokerFace, iamausername, Seraphim,

AdumbroDeus

AdumbroDeus

(5) -- Fate,

Kmd4390

, Plumegranate,

Ellibereth

, SpyreX

Not voting: mith, ooba,

HackerHuck

12 alive, 7 to lynch.

===================================
So Fate jumps off my wagon to lead off the AdumbroDeus wagon. KMD (town), Plumegranate (unk), and Ellibereth (town) all place votes on Adumbro, essentially creating a second competing wagon (5 on HH vs. 4 on Adumbro). Spyrex then moves to Adumbro, which flip-flops the votecounts.

Fate's pretty certain town in my eyes now. He had no reason as scum to jump off of my wagon and start a new one on another townie.
If one assumes me to be scum, then Spyrex's switch looks pretty scummy. His jump also looks scummy with me as town, considering that the Adumbro wagon was heating up and he has repeatedly pointed to me as his prime scum target.
===================================
Wednesday October 6th, 2010 13:37
Votecount

HackerHuck

(4) -- PokerFace, iamausername, Seraphim,

AdumbroDeus

AdumbroDeus

(3) --

Kmd4390

, Plumegranate, SpyreX
ooba (1) -- Fate

Not voting: mith, ooba,

HackerHuck

,

Ellibereth

12 alive, 7 to lynch.

===================================
Ellibereth unvoted, but is confirmed town. Fate's jump to ooba is interesting, but I could only see it being scummy if Ooba is scum and Fate is trying to bus. That argument seems too forced to be likely.
===================================

Friday October 8th, 2010 10:15
Votecount

HackerHuck

(3) -- iamausername, Seraphim,

AdumbroDeus

AdumbroDeus

(6) --

Kmd4390

, Plumegranate, SpyreX, Fate, mith, PokerFace

Not voting: ooba,

HackerHuck

,

Ellibereth

12 alive, 7 to lynch.

===================================
Fate hops back on, Mith takes a stand on Adumbro and PokerFace makes the switch. Pokerface switch looks really scummy if I'm scum, slightly less scummy with me as town.
===================================

Friday October 8th, 2010 14:12
Final Votecount

HackerHuck

(3) -- iamausername, Seraphim,

AdumbroDeus

AdumbroDeus

(7) --

Kmd4390

, Plumegranate, SpyreX, Fate, mith, PokerFace, ooba
PokerFace (1) --

HackerHuck

Not voting:

Ellibereth

12 alive, 7 to lynch.

--------------------------
Ooba drops the hammer. That doesn't make sense if he's scum and I am not. Unless he just wasn't around to hammer me before the wagon went away.


In all fairness, it should be noted that my last vote on PokerFace came in after ooba dropped the hammer.

Probably the most surprising thing I found is that all of my scum suspects (except confirmed town Ellibereth) were on the AdumbroDeus lynch.

Something to keep in mind after I'm gone is that unless all of the scum were voting for Adumbro, either iamausername or Seraphim are scum. I'd go with iamausername in that scenario. Sorry Fate, but I see the VV/Seraphim argument as town/town. I don't see scum Seraphim being so stubborn to act that way. The other two scum on my list would be PokerFace and Spyrex or Plumegranate. I haven't gone back to look for any connections between these folks. Based on that last post by Plumegranate, I don't see her paired with Spyrex.

[HackerHuck]

I just took a look at the counts. If I get lynched today (or some other townie gets lynched), that means the vigilante has to hit scum or hit the scum's target tonight to avoid a town loss. So let's not get carried away and rush a lynch.

[iamausername]

If one assumes me to be scum, then Spyrex's switch looks pretty scummy.

...

Pokerface switch looks really scummy if I'm scum, slightly less scummy with me as town.

Hi, I'm HackerHuck, and I know my goose is cooked, so I'm just leaving you guys a bottle of WIFOM to remember me by when you're trying to find my partners.

Really, give me one reason why you would ever say these things as town.

[PokerFace]

If one assumes me to be scum, then Spyrex's switch looks pretty scummy.

...

Pokerface switch looks really scummy if I'm scum, slightly less scummy with me as town.

Hi, I'm HackerHuck, and I know my goose is cooked, so I'm just leaving you guys a bottle of WIFOM to remember me by when you're trying to find my partners.

Really, give me one reason why you would ever say these things as town.

Yes, if Hacker Huck was town he wouldn't be telling us to consider the options of him being scum. He is obviously just trying to drag down me and spyreX at this point so that Mith will go after us next.

Considering that^ and the slip Mith found and the stuff I said at the start of yesterday (Vas's play was scummy and bad, connections to DGB) I think we got obv scum caught.

And mith I won't defend anything SK and Eek did as I am not them and wouldn't know how. As far as my play day 3 that concerns you, yay I fucked up and over thought that. should of gone with my first impulse or read more instead or practically phoning it in and agreeing to vote whoever had most. If you want I can provide 2 meta instances where I was town and deliberatly stayed silent because i wanted to see if any scum would come out or out themselves. In Dynamite Mafia I knew Ultima Avalon was not entirly killed by Adel the moment I read it and said so. I kept my mouth shut and acted like everyone else to see what they would do. In Satin Doll I didn't vote or hammer any scums until just before deadlines. I had planned to do they same here if Fate had not beat me to it wuith DGB. Ironically Erg0 and Tar drug me to the grave later since Incognito said I was connected to them. I'll get you links to those games in a moment so you can read I am telling you the truth. Other than this there is nothing else I can say.

I currently suspect Hacker for reasons given. Ooba for rushing yesterday, some connections he has to DGB and various instances of IIOA that Fate pointed out. And I think either The fruits or Fate is the last scum. More so Fate given SpyreX had to point out to him that other option in his plan and really was the curse word needed in your vote? Its a bit of a weak suspicion though so ooba should be tomorrow's lynch and there should be deep thought about Fate vs Fruits or SpyreX should HH be trying to clear SpyreX and frame me with what he said before. But yes HH and then Ooba need to die. We can figure out true last scums after that since I am not sure

I'm ready to vote Hacker Huck when you guys are though given my vote would put hacker at L-1. After seeing how yesterday went I am going to ask if there is anything else anyone else wants to talk about before I do this?

[PokerFace]

Satin Doll
http://67.222.17.61/forum/viewtopic.php?t=8276

Dynamite Stick
http://67.222.17.61/forum/viewtopic.php?t=8119

Other than this I got nothing else

Likly Town
mith
iam
Seph/replacer

One is scum
SpyreX
Fruits
Fate

scum
ooba
HH

[PokerFace]

actually I suspect fruits less given if they were scum DGB would have told them to claim tracker and out rhino instead. so yay flip them and spyreX.

[SpyreX]

That analysis said, amongst other awesome things:

If I'm scum, SpyreX is scum.
If I'm town, SpyreX is scum.

Which is really cool with that PF vote.

[HackerHuck]

If one assumes me to be scum, then Spyrex's switch looks pretty scummy.

...

Pokerface switch looks really scummy if I'm scum, slightly less scummy with me as town.

Hi, I'm HackerHuck, and I know my goose is cooked, so I'm just leaving you guys a bottle of WIFOM to remember me by when you're trying to find my partners.

Really, give me one reason why you would ever say these things as town.

Because my goose is cooked and I've got to leave the town something to go on. It seems to have worked a bit since the three main people I called out have all responded. Pokerface showing up isn't too surprising, but you and Spyrex aren't the most common posters in this thread. Do the scum smell blood in the water?

That analysis said, amongst other awesome things:

If I'm scum, SpyreX is scum.
If I'm town, SpyreX is scum.

Which is really cool with that PF vote.

Yes, because I said the same thing about PokerFace. I'm just more certain about him, because I don't know whether scum Spyrex would tunnel as hard as you have.

Yes, if Hacker Huck was town he wouldn't be telling us to consider the options of him being scum. He is obviously just trying to drag down me and spyreX at this point so that Mith will go after us next.

How does this make sense. If I were to flip scum, why would Mith listen to me?

actually I suspect fruits less given if they were scum DGB would have told them to claim tracker and out rhino instead. so yay flip them and spyreX.

Smells a bit like bussing, knowing how I'll flip.

[Patrick]

CrashTextDummie replaces Seraphim. Thanks!

[CrashTextDummie]

Hi.

Any deadlines or other pressing matters I should be aware of? Give me a day or two to catch up otherwise.

[Fate]

Unvote:

Let's see how much CTD can impress.

[Fate]

"If one assumes me to be scum, then Spyrex's switch looks pretty scummy."

wait what the fuck?

[Fate]

Either I am a (Vanilla) Townsperson, or I am the Vig and think there is enough of a chance that I can get two shots off to warrant my staying hidden.

My reads are screwed up this game .. Time for an epic re-read ..

oh hell sunshine here actually posted and I ALMOST MISSED IT.

Day doesn't end until Ooba's catch-up post is posted, I destroy it, he is lynched instead, and CTD posts.

IZ WE CLEAR?

[PokerFace]

Yes, if Hacker Huck was town he wouldn't be telling us to consider the options of him being scum. He is obviously just trying to drag down me and spyreX at this point so that Mith will go after us next.

How does this make sense. If I were to flip scum, why would Mith listen to me?

actually I suspect fruits less given if they were scum DGB would have told them to claim tracker and out rhino instead. so yay flip them and spyreX.

Smells a bit like bussing, knowing how I'll flip.

If you were town then you would know you would flip town. Thus you wouldn't need to waste your breath telling us what you being scum would mean. The fact you are saying it basically means Iamusername is right. You are using wifom

That analysis said, amongst other awesome things:

If I'm scum, SpyreX is scum.
If I'm town, SpyreX is scum.

Which is really cool with that PF vote.

Pardon? You agreeing with me and saying you got no problem with me putting him at L-1 or is this addressed to something else?

Fate's unvote feels odd. Why do you want to hear from CTD if you thought he was scum and voted Hacker so harshly earlier? Yep I think HH, Ooba, Fate

Edit while preview: ok he thinks he might want ooba dead instead, thats fine, still surprised he would want to hear from CTD though at any rate since this wouldn't put HH at L-1 and CTD should still get time before hammer while huck at L-2

Vote: Hacker Huck