Actually, I'm good with Nacho right now.
I'll probably support a Plum lynch.
I think Raider has a questionable history, and the slot connects fairly well with Chronopie.
Chronopie wrote:So raider, the likely early wagon, get turned around. of the early jumpers to the SV wagon, SSBF was the one without much reason.
His argument makes the most sense if he also thinks Raider is scum, but he never says as much. Otherwise why would he focus on the early jumpers? Late jumpers without reason could still be scum for following the bandwagon, but its early jumpers who could have an interest in protecting scum by voting town.
But Plum's defence of Amished wasn't a "look at the whole post" it was "no that's not a tell." Sounds like scum defending a buddy, or scum defending a townie for town cred.
I saw this two ways (Plum could either be scum with him or a townie), but after reading it along with the rest of his ISO, one scenario looks more likely. That he was distancing when it was safe and opportune to do so.
I feel that Plum's 'Sense of surety' of what's genuinely scummy needs a recalibration.
Here Chrono loses his confident and clear Plum read. If he wanted to argue this was Plum-scum tactics he could have easily argued it like before. But he focuses on the 'Plum being wrong' part as if she could just be misguided. It reads to me like he wants to pull his suspicion back so that he can justify a vote switch, which he does to Fishy.
Now I see 3 more scenarios.
1)
He thinks Plum has enough suspicion to get lynched, and is moving onto Fishy next.
But this doesn't feel like the move he pulled with SSBF, where he sheeped Ythan to "forget" he had ever called SSBF scummy. This time he still sheeps KMD but also says Plum is scummy. Its hard to interpret because he could just be protecting himself here, whereas he wasn't under suspicion when SSBF and Ani were the wagons. But if he wanted to protect himself more, I think he would have voted Plum when he had more justification for that vote anyway.
2)
Its all about Fishy, and Chrono was bussing.
If that's the case then why didn't he care when Ani was nearly lynched over SSBF, and instead Chrono left SSBF for Plum? It doesn't look like Chrono and Fishy are connected.
3)
Fishy was the largest town wagon
. It seems reasonable that he would go for Fishy-town instead of bus Plum-scum in this scenario because most of the players off the three major wagons were actually in favor of Fishy over Plum or Chrono. (Nacho, holy and Rhinox has all recently said as much in their ISOs) Amished was a wild card since he had been V/LA so long. Even I had expressed suspicions of Ani, so Chrono could have believed he could save himself and lynch town.
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I still want to look more at Plum herself before I feel comfortable voting though, and look at her old Charlie case again to see if there's merit to it.
@Plum: What caused your KMD turnaround? How do you feel about Fishy now?
-And if KMD was a ? for his interpretation of Ythan-Richard, why didn't you put Batt as ? too?
And a few old questions I don't think I figured out.
-Do you remember the “ways the phrasing could have happened by accident” you talked about in post 1927?
-Why did you include the unlikelihood of 2 scum factions into your argument that Amished's post was not a big deal? Why not stop at "scumslips aren't a good tell"? Why use setup speculation to bolster your position?
