Mini 1049 - Hide and Seek Mafia - FINAL Kablooie!

[Katsuki]

Good news: I got my comp back
Bad news: They fucked up with installing everything, so I gotta take it back tomorrow... and no idea why resolution is so screwed up but it hurts my eyes.

[camn]

And I replaced a drunk monkey that I would have lynched.

I love you.
Literally.

[Katsuki]

Oh that reminds me

If I get lynched while I'm gone, someone take a DEEP HARD LOOK at jenn for me, and to a lesser extent, camn.

I'm glad spy realizes what he replaced into too

[SpyreX]

I've missed you camn you magnificent bastion of sense.

<3

I'll finish up tomorrow the powers of muscle relaxers have devoured the higher level brain activities.

[Ellibereth]

And I replaced a drunk monkey that I would have lynched.

>.>

Spy, you know what Amished's tell thing is y/n?

[TheButtonmen]

Deadline in 5 days.

Tick-tock on those catch up posts replacements.

[SpyreX]

THERE, caught up.

Annnd....

I have to give one apology.

TBM, sorry I doubted you as a lurkerface. You're not a lurkerface. You are in fact a townface.

That said.

Follow me here.

Kat is scum. Not the ohh maybe ooohh nelly kind. But, the I'm certain of this kinda scum. Between lying for no town gain (hint: also for no scum gain but the default is in fact bad news bears), the teehee with the claiming AND the delay in giving the important part and this new "welp lynch me to help the game" business we done caught us a scums in the face.

FURTHER, and this is important enough I'm gonna lay it out now: When Kat flips scum, check her ISO. All those people she calls town without any qualifiers? Town. Every last damn one. (double hint: I'd bet hard on Pom being the last scum).

The ONLY reason I'm not throwing the vote/hammer is that I want to squeeze the Ice a bit just to make sure.

Spy, you know what Amished's tell thing is y/n?

Amished is in this game?

Regardless (n)

[Iecerint]

TOWN
camn
Pom
TBM
Jenni
Tanstalas=SX

SCUM
Katsuki
Budja=FC=NP

HMM
MBF

1. If Katsuki is scum AND tanstalas/SX is town, jenni may be scum.

2. I don't understand why jenni changes her mind about tantalas, or why camn applauds her for doing so, around 400. It doesn't look scummy, though. It also removes the other deduction I made in "1" above.

3. The combination of 1 and 2 make it less likely that jenni is scum.

4. MBF's reasons on MPR are fair. I'm surprised camn didn't point them out tbh. I figure she was trying to confirm her prior hypothesis.

5. I get extra town rays from camn, so I'm not sure why Elli is questioning her in 421. Also, she DID explain it already. Not necessarily scummy, though; just idk.

6. FC's attack on Jenni in 424 looks bad given my decision that Jenni is probably not scum above. The reasoning is bad, too; her case didn't "fail;" she got information that convinced her to look elsewhere, and on a (hypothetically) scummy townie.

7. Actually, I think we SHOULD reveal where we hid the previous night every night. While it's true that no one will lie, it's also true that hiding place locations per se are still informative. We can get information equivalent to everyone being a Light Sleeper without cost AFAIK.

8. I am sympathetic to tan's case on Katsuki/Elli in 439.

9. Katsuki is so scummy around 440-450.

10. OK, he keeps being scummy into the 450s.

11. I'm not sure why TBH totally ignores Katsuki in 465...but his case on FC is still good, and I think FC is scummy.

12. FC's response to TBM is consistent with a scum response. The part that TBM in 471 quotes is perfect - "I'm not getting a scum vibe here" about analysis of HIS OWN POST.

13. I hadn't noticed what Pom (and camn) apparently already knew at 475...

14. Katsuki is omfg.

15. I agree with Pom in 489 re: tans. And I was just getting a townier read from tans, too.

16. Not sure why MBF has good vibes on my slot in 491. EDIT: he explains it in his subsequent post.

17. NP(=FC) going after camn upon replace-in is awful. camn is not scum. Her push on Katsuki subsequent is way too sincere. The post is really canned; it looks like an active attempt to find another scumfriend for Katsuki more than anything else.

This also weakly implies that NP is not scum with Katsuki, though it may just be that he doesn't think he can avoid the lynch any other way.

18. Erm...dunno how I feel about camn's attitude toward NP's post...it's not what I would have expected at all...

19. Whaaa...drunken NP vote from camn (538) is even weirder in context...I...erm.

20. MBF's 563 is...well, it's not the way I see things, but I suppose it's workmanlike. And his conclusion doesn't address the dueling wagons. Strong towntell. On the other hand, his conclusion is sort of bogus. Jenni is pretty strongly town to me at this point in my readthrough. So that makes it just a weak towntell, cuz it looks slightly made-up.

21. Katsuki 567 is again v bad. She basically votes Jenni and then posts VCs that have no bearing on Jenni being scum. Looks just as made-up as MBF's thing, but without the bonus points of voting a non-wagon he had. Scummy.

22. Elli is straight-up CC'ing Katsuki's sleeping location? That seems to make things simple.

23. Oh...Katsuki...umm...lied earlier...? Huh? @ 575. Did he claim locations twice?

24. Why the hell is everyone voting Jenni @ TBM's 576.

25. Why does camn think Katsuki may be town in 584? Why is she more likely to be town than Jenni or NP (who I think she's votin at the time)?

26. ...Why does MBR also think Katsuki is town...? @ 588

THIS IS THE WEIRDEST PAGE OF THIS GAME BTW.

27. I don't see the motivation in Jenni being scum in 577, other than that she piped up when there was pressure on her.

28.

[Iecerint]

Thought summaries:

1.

camn

- 110% Town until the schizophrenic response to NP's bad case on her. I still think she's probably town

2.

MBF

- I disagree with most of his analysis, but I can usually see where he's coming from. Leaning town because of dependencies.

3.

Jenni

- I think she's town because of dependencies. I don't think she's the kind of player who would be sneaky and subvert this very well. I did at first think she was really scummy early game for her attitude toward vezok, though.

4.

Ellibereth

- Weak town read.

5.

Spyrex=tanstalas

- The same deal as with Jenni in terms of my read changing as I went along, but tanstalas also made some good posts toward the end.

6.

Pomegranate

- The activity level is not what I'd like, but her actual content shows pretty good evidence of analysis. I think this is townPom.

7.

Katsuki

- Extremely scummy. Has outright lied at least once, has repeated attacked players I think are town, and always opportunistically. The move on Jenni after MBF did so is a good example.

8.

NP=Far_Cry=Budja

- Pretty scummy. NP's a little better, but the case on camn looked fake to me, granted that her response to it was utterly bizarre and makes me give the benefit of the doubt on it a little. This makes me lean Katsuki over him.

9.

TheButtonmen

- Much clearer town play in the second half of the game.

[TheButtonmen]

Yo Spy could you clearify why you think Kats is teh scums.

I agree all those things you mentioned are indeed the bad news bears they are also all the most obvious issues, gimmie the meat of the issue.

[camn]

Schizo=I missed a bunch of NPs responses because they were buried inside quotes of me.
So there was a period there where I think I wasn't playing the same game as NP.
It confused me.
I feel better now.

[SpyreX]

They are the tiny, perfect strokes of scum against the broad brushes.

Kat hasn't done anything. There's a lot of words, but (and I swear PLEASE GOD dont make me go through and get the diagrams) they're designed specifically NOT to say anything. Everything is qualified and not in the "I'm not sure what I actually think" but in the "I have to leave these bridges open".

Of course, that aside, the combination of factors listed before would be an instant death warrant anywho so.

[Iecerint]

7. Actually, I think we SHOULD reveal where we hid the previous night every night. While it's true that no one will lie, it's also true that hiding place locations per se are still informative. We can get information equivalent to everyone being a Light Sleeper without cost AFAIK.

On second thought, this will narrow heavy/light sleepers a little or a lot depending on what everyone chose. So there's that.

[mikeburnfire]

Might not have time to finish my review this weekend, as I'm hella busy. If that's the case, and Katsuki/NoPoint are the speculated scum pair, I would prefer to lynch Katsuki, as I like how NoPoint has played. Also, icerint looks like a really perceptive player, as I am indeed not a very good townie.

[SpyreX]

I'm really thinking this isn't one of those MYSTERIES game and it is Kat and Pom, nice and simple.

[Iecerint]

I don't understand why you think Pom is scum. She seems town to me.

Why do you think she's scum?

[SpyreX]

She's got a case of that nothing virus.

What in her analysis is fresh thought AND feels town to you?

[Ellibereth]

Ugh spy let me find that link...forgot about the forum move.

[Iecerint]

Namely, iso 6. I had the same O.o about the same point in Jenni's post when I read that, and I was happy someone caught it. Granted that it's scumhunting against a player I now think is town, I think that scumPom doesn't usually catch that sort of thing. She wallflowers (more than this Pom, who admittedly still wallflowers).

Caveat is that I have not played with Pom for several months.

Apart from that, it was just that her comments sometimes mirrored my own impressions as I read through.

Also, part of the reason I asked is that Pom is such a lurker in general that I dunno how you find her scum except by PoE.

[Ellibereth]

HERE WE GO SPYSPY.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 1#p2067031
Vut you think.

[SpyreX]

High on goofballs.

Being scum and being scummy are different beasts entirely. I'm more than happy to qualify my predecessors AND, if they are actually using analysis, I will used the fact they are confirmed to adjust my reads.

In other cases such as this one? Absolutely disregarded.

[Katsuki]

Whoa, so replacements have very skewed reads.

I agree with MBF, and am against nopoint lynch.

My VC analysis, which lacked the analysis part that I never got an opportunity to write up, was meant to show how jenni was quite the happy wagon hopper D1. I guess you can say that I'm going partly by meta, but that does not seem like town-jenni to me at all.

@Icerinct: I only ever lied about my hiding place, coming out of N1, and coming out of N2. I already explained why I thought that was a town thing to do at the time. I hope that is not a major part of your reasoning for me=scum, because if it is, then I have major objections to that.

[Katsuki]

They are the tiny, perfect strokes of scum against the broad brushes.

Kat hasn't done anything. There's a lot of words, but (and I swear PLEASE GOD dont make me go through and get the diagrams) they're designed specifically NOT to say anything. Everything is qualified and not in the "I'm not sure what I actually think" but in the "I have to leave these bridges open".

Of course, that aside, the combination of factors listed before would be an instant death warrant anywho so.

I'd love examples of those moments, since whaddya know, that sounds JUST LIKE MY META IN EVERY SINGLE GODDAMN GAME.

[SpyreX]

Ohh well if its meta then

[Katsuki]

I'd still love examples, spy.