Last Will Mafia II (Over)

[Charlie]

Are red pandas fat or just fluffy?

[Kmd4390]

Batt, I've been far too busy to finish the analysis. It is a lot more time consuming than I expected. What makes Diacria/Michel/Xite more likely to be NK'd than the chance that they were right about their suspicions? Especially Xite. Answer that and I'll consider factoring it in. I haven't done an analysis of yesterday's lynch. Just a quick glance. All I'm saying is that I doubt every scum bussed, so there must be scum who didn't vote Chro. I didn't list "bussers" because it wasn't a full "based in this wagon, here is a guaranteed failproof list of the scum". It was a statement that at least one, if not most of, the scum can be found off the wagon. Also, I think I've sheeped Charlie more than he's sheeped me so that bit is pretty amusing. Plum being a counterwagon to a scum lynch doesn't make me suspect her, it reinforces my town read. I'm "focusing" on you over Ythan and Rhinox because you are my most confident scum read. I get less and less confident on the other two as the game progresses. Ythan definitely shouldn't live to endgame though. But if he is scum, his votes won't go to an ideal townie, so there's no point lynching him just to move his votes. Also, you don't know my scum game at all. I don't look at what "benefits" scum. If anything, I do what would benefit town if I was town. When I'm scum, I usually get halfway through a post before I remember that I am scum. I haven't read past that post, but if Fish protected someone, they were probably the kill target, which is why there was no kill.

On the NKA TM, how is using a different method to find scum when mine has obviously failed not helpful for town? Ok, maybe I'm not doing it how you would. But it's new to me.

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Plum, ok.

Vote Batt x2

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Back to Batt, no. It doesn't assume that the same person chose each kill (which isn't even a bad assumption. One scum's opinions being dominant isn't uncommon). It's a point system to show which players (that is with an s at the end) were most widely suspected by the NK'd players.

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Fish not telling us who he protected is fine. If the person comes near a lynch, he can tell us. If not, even if Fish dies, we know that it was either the person who gets Fish's vote or someone who is already dead. For today, this is fine, but it may be a good idea to tell us at the very least whether or not players who die were who he protected. For example, let's say we lynch Batt and I die tonight. Fish should tell the town if he protected Batt before he is lynched or if he protected me the next day. If Fish is lynched, he should claim it before he dies. If Fish is NK'd, we know that either the person lynched (assume Batt) or the person who gets Fish's vote was protected. But we'd know it's not Batt because we should ask Fish before we lynch Batt.

Ok, it probably looks like typing in circles, but it helped me understand that basically it's ok for Fish not to claim his target for now as long as Fish gives us a yes/no ASAP on each death.

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Batt, why are you assuming I was targeted last night? Oh yeah, scumknozthis.

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Esurio (post 2378), you're going to have to explain those reads because I disagree with most.

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GUYS, FISH IS IN THE SAME BOAT AS YTHAN WAS WITH THE MILLAR KILL. IT WAS AN INVENTION GIVEN TO HIM AND SAYS NOTHING ABOUT HIS ALIGNMENT

. It's possible that scum no-killed so that Fish could claim something. It's possible that it wasn't even a doc-protect that he got. Maybe he still has another unused kill or something (unlikely, but possible). We don't know enough about this to be all "Fish is obvtown cuz he claimed doc-protect HURHURHUR".

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Rhinox, why can't Fish have bussed Chro? And as much as I appreciate being excluded there, why not me? Hate to say it, but you and Locke also get townpoints... And why is Holy more likely scum who bussed than Batt or Charlie scum who didn't?

Thridly is the power of wifom. Leaving players alive that you think should have been nked by now makes town suspect them more. I suspect Ythan more because he hasn't been nked,

but I can't lynch him for that.

To the bolded, why not?

[Rhinox]

GUYS, FISH IS IN THE SAME BOAT AS YTHAN WAS WITH THE MILLAR KILL. IT WAS AN INVENTION GIVEN TO HIM AND SAYS NOTHING ABOUT HIS ALIGNMENT. It's possible that scum no-killed so that Fish could claim something. It's possible that it wasn't even a doc-protect that he got. Maybe he still has another unused kill or something (unlikely, but possible). We don't know enough about this to be all "Fish is obvtown cuz he claimed doc-protect HURHURHUR".

Its not quite the same boat. See my post a lil while back for reasons why scum aren't just going to no kill, and scum-fishy isn't going to just happen to accidently block a scum kill, while scum-ythan could kill town regardless of alignment with a 1-shot kill. Ani claimed the doc 1-shot ability almost immediately upon getting it, and fishy first refused to say whether he chose to protect anyone last night before turning around just to say he did use the ability. I don't think that was all staged, so I feel fish really did use a doc protect, and isn't just claiming to have prevented a kill that was prevented for other reasons. He's also going about the claiming/not claiming target considerations in a very pro-town way. Its all pointing to fishy being prob-town.

Rhinox, why can't Fish have bussed Chro?

Due to the above reasons I view fishy as obv-town, I didn't look at his vote in the context of possible bussing. I don't think he's scum, ergo he wasn't bussing.

And as much as I appreciate being excluded there, why not me?

I'm hesitant to say this, but I feel as if the effort you've put into the VC analysis earlier in the game seemed to go above and beyond the effort most scum would put into appearing to scum hunt, especially in a slow game like this one.

And why is Holy more likely scum who bussed than Batt or Charlie scum who didn't?

PoE. I feel pretty confident at least 1 of holy or nacho are scum. Its going to be harder to sort out who is scum among {ythan, charlie, batt, plum, (kunk), (esuris)} - kunk and esuris I'm confident aren't scum, but ?/4 are scum out of the other 4 and I can't get better odds out of it than 1/2 or better between nacho and holy.

To the bolded, why not?

too wifomy

[Kmd4390]

Maybe Fish is scum who protected someone from a second scum group's kill. This would support my even/odd kill theory.

Again, I appreciate the town read, but it's for the wrong reasons. I use VCA TM regardless of alignment and put in just as much effort as scum as I do as town.

Fair enough on the holy vote.

too wifomy

*Sigh*

Not wasting my breath.

[Jahudo]

Hmm, now I have to understand the Battousai wagon. (I'll omit the animorph case because that was just lolz)

- The part where he said "Because they are part of your scum team, that's why" and then dropped it in the EBWOP version.

I don't find the edit scummy because obviously he'd know the line had already been said and anyone could read it, so its not like he was trying to hide. I can see his defense that its a line that can't be answered seriously. And that kind of bravado talk is a common feeling to have as town when you are confident but don't see alot of support. I don't think its forced.

- Plum has a strong gut feeling and hasn't been wrong in the past.

This means nothing to me. Even I wouldn't bet on my strongest reads if I was on a hot streak.

- "Blatant paranoia-mongering rhetoric."

Eh, there is some merit to Batt's arguments even though I disagree with the conclusions. But its not paranoia mongering.

Kmd is making town actions that result in scum benefits (wagon analysis that doesn't take into account reasons for voting, erroneous NK analysis/IIoA

It wasn't a method I would support, and I think it could be good busy work for scum who wouldn't want to commit to anything right away. But I don't think KMD was doing it for that reason. He was already set on getting Fishy lynched, so he wasn't avoiding a bold move.

the fact he has me/ythan/rhinox as most likely scum but choose to focus on the person with 1 vote even though we are most likely near lylo

Hoping to get more votes out of scums' hands? Yeah, I can see that argument. He'd had to prove he was more confident in Batt than Ythan or Rhinox. Ythan as lower I can see from a quick ISO. Its harder to weigh his Batt and Rhinox reads from the past couple of days, other than the VCA which placed Rhinox way above Batt. Though I guess it was never completed but still.

That is how decent scum play. They make moves that they expect to be interpreted as reasonable town play, even though it resulted to benefit scum.

Is this under the assumption that KMD is scum with either Rhinox or Ythan?

If at least one of the scum falls into the category of "giving off a town vibe," lets call him Kmd, they can't kill him and they can't kill of one of the last townies that give off a town vibe as it would become suspicious later that "Kmd" is still alive and has multiple votes.

This speculation is lessened now that we can speculate whether or not Fishy stopped the kill, but I don't think there's a lack of town-vibe players that are shared by most of us. I think half the town is being seriously suspected for scum while the other half is being considered for PoE candidates. And actually I think you and Nacho made KMD a serious candidate yesterday so he wouldn't be in much danger of looking suspiciously town and still alive.

- 3 Days on the "Scum Set TM'S"

I don't think this means much since there weren't any serious wagons (other than 3 votes on Plum) of people still alive. So almost everyone, town and scum, were voting town in those sets. Although I can see now that KMD was betting on SSBF being scum there, in order to boost his case and prevent him from looking hypocritical (as someone who was already on 2 town wagons when he posted that).

- Vote jumping

KMD argued that Batt jumped from Twomz to Plum to Xite to SV, also saying most important VC was Plum's. I guess that's still true but I can also see that SSBF vote hopped just as much day 1, while Chrono only voted 2 people. It would matter more if the reasoning for hopping looked forced, but KMD didn't argue that.

All in all I'm not feeling this wagon.

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Charlie, do not get between a red panda and his dinner.

[Jahudo]

@holycon: Is Plum your top suspect?
@Locke: Is holycon your top suspect?
@kunkstar: Are you staying on Plum or switching to holycon, now that she has a wagon?

I'm ready to vote Plum but am willing to hear about the other two wagons if there is any information I have not seen.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Count

Plum (5) - Fishythefish, esuriospiritus, Battosuai, Charlie, kunkstar7
Battosuai (4) - Plum, Nachomamma8, kmd4390
holycon (2) - Rhinox

Not Voting (12) - holycon, Locke Lamora, Ythan, Jahudo

[Fishythefish]

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Fish not telling us who he protected is fine. If the person comes near a lynch, he can tell us. If not, even if Fish dies, we know that it was either the person who gets Fish's vote or someone who is already dead. For today, this is fine,

but it may be a good idea to tell us at the very least whether or not players who die were who he protected.

For example, let's say we lynch Batt and I die tonight. Fish should tell the town if he protected Batt before he is lynched or if he protected me the next day. If Fish is lynched, he should claim it before he dies. If Fish is NK'd, we know that either the person lynched (assume Batt) or the person who gets Fish's vote was protected. But we'd know it's not Batt because we should ask Fish before we lynch Batt.

Ok, it probably looks like typing in circles, but it helped me understand that basically it's ok for Fish not to claim his target for now as long as Fish gives us a yes/no ASAP on each death.

This is all true, and in particular I'm certainly planning to do the bolded.

Someone asked about reasons for voting Plum. My major one goes all the way back to day 1. It seems very unlikely that the late day wagon switch from raider to SV wasn't scum driven. This points strongly to raider (and now Plum) being scum. Chrono's play yesterday also makes me think Plumscum a bit more - his natural play would really have been to go after Plum when his lynch became likely, and he didn't do that.

[Ythan]

And I don't like how the person holding the most votes is trying to dictate this sort of things, you know.

By dictate do you mean recognize that you're trying to dictate, and are terrible? Yeah it doesn't make sense to me either.

[Charlie]

I suggest.

[Ythan]

And I say that you are in no position, of all people in this game. And you try to twist that into me dictating the course of the game, suggesting that it's dangerous to allow this to happen (because I have six votes?). This is what I meant when I said terrible.

[Kmd4390]

Charlie has a point.

[holycon]

@holycon: Is Plum your top suspect?

@Locke: Is holycon your top suspect?
@kunkstar: Are you staying on Plum or switching to holycon, now that she has a wagon?

I'm ready to vote Plum but am willing to hear about the other two wagons if there is any information I have not seen.

No plum is not my top suspect i think shes scummy but in my eyes shes not the scummyiest
VOTE: Batt

Batt is the scummier one to me i have to go to work but i should have a longer post about it ether tonight or tomarow

[esuriospiritus]

Fun Fact: This got written in three different sittings because I keep getting interrupted by shit. >:( I blame any incoherency on that.

Esurio (post 2378), you're going to have to explain those reads because I disagree with most.

Fishy is town, Jahudo is town, Battousai is probtown, Rhinox is probtown. Plum is scum, and Charlie and Ythan are probscum, I'm willing to trust KMD about Holy if he's town but ignoring his mysterious town tell on her she's pretty scummy, and I'm on the fence about everyone else.

Fishy - KMD brings up a good point about Fishy not being confirmed town just 'cause of the inventor item, but Occam's Razor dictates he's probably telling the truth and I still am not willing to lynch him today. Plus he's one of those people I get a vibe about that he'd be pretty transparent if he were scum. I've never played with him before so I could be totally off but there are some people I've played with who I consider really easy to read and he reads like they do to me. Also, see Charlie read.

Jahudo - Just plain obvtown. I have yet to see something from him that raises a red flag for me. Period. (If I'm wrong, I'm pulling a Charlie and blaming the red panda. <.<)

Battousai - Pittbunny dropped something I consider a towntell really early on; I don't remember what it was exactly but if I recall correctly it was something like he made a post early on that I felt put him in the spotlight way more than a scumbag would be comfortable with. I haven't seen anything to convince me to disregard that towntell since, although he's said a few things I disagree with (which isn't a scumtell, but yeah).

Rhinox - Really strong posts D1. I felt like he gave a little coherency to town early on when everyone else was still kind of bouncing off the walls, whereas I would expect scum to take advantage of the chaos more and lay back a little. Like Battousai, hasn't said or done anything to make me really question that read since.

Plum - Raider's ISO speaks for itself. Plum I feel really hasn't been making much of an effort to scumhunt; when she posts it just feels to me like she doesn't care very much. Plus there's the Chrono-Plum connection. Their wagons were so close, scum definitely had the option of swaying the lynch to whomever. If there are scum that were on his wagon, that means either a.) Plum is a scum role they think they needed more than an extra kill or b.) Plum is town and Chrono already used his kill so scum felt free to bus him for town points c.) we have a really stupid scumteam on our hands, which considering we only have one of them dead to nine town, I don't think is the case.

Charlie -

Charlie has risen significantly on my scumlist -- his play all day has basically been "guise, lynch fish!" and I see scum motivation in his push for others to vote fish before he'd even had a chance to catch up and say anything that might redeem the slot. I am fairly certain that one of Charlie/Fish is scum (both highly unlikely) -- if fish is town Charlie had significant scum motivation to try to push a mislynch through before the replacement could do anything to make the slot a harder mislynch (like, say, actually post useful shit). If Fish is scum then I somehow doubt Charlie would be continuing to bus his buddy today knowing, again, the slot has a chance of redeeming itself with the replacement and all. Them both being town together, while admittedly more of a possibility than them both being scum together, makes much less cohesive sense to me than the situations of Charlie being scum, which is what I'm currently betting on.

Ythan - lurking galore and a relative lack of scumhunting, especially earlier on. Plus Chronopie handed off two votes to him, which doesn't help. Also, he pops up twice in my scumbrackets from earlier (I should probably update those. Hmm...)

Holy - mostly her rapid change in stance on Amished, and relative lack of scumhunting.

[Charlie]

I'm looking at the first post and seeing player numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 still alive. Randomn distrubution dictates that at least one of these people are mafia. Clustering may indicate more than one. This may sound random but, it is true! Trust me.

[Charlie]

Oh the heck with it.
UNVOTE: Plum
VOTE: Nachomamma8

[Fishythefish]

I'm looking at the first post and seeing player numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 still alive. Randomn distrubution dictates that at least one of these people are mafia. Clustering may indicate more than one. This may sound random but, it is true! Trust me.

This applies totally equally to any set of five numbers with those players alive, unless you are suggesting that some choices have been made to bias towards certain numbers (which seems deeply unlikely). "Clustering" means nothing in this context - there is no clustering effect in picking a random mafiate (or two) from a list of players. This is all intuitively obvious, but it is also mathematically true.

[Ythan]

Charlie has a point.

Unless this is all you have to say about it then no, he doesn't.

Esurio, two things. One, explain how I'm lurking. Two, explain how you're not full of IoA. If you're trying to make a point then make it instead of waiting for someone else to based on your post so you don't stand out.

[Charlie]

there is no clustering effect in picking a random mafiate (or two) from a list of players. This is all intuitively obvious, but it is also mathematically true.

Are you sure about this?
...
...
It doesn't matter. I like your Plum vote, and I say we move on.

[Charlie]

I missed out Jahudo's 1 line reply towards me. My response:

Thanks, that was actually quite entertaining in a cute kind of way. The problem is, I know you're distracting me and I know it is working.

[Fishythefish]

there is no clustering effect in picking a random mafiate (or two) from a list of players. This is all intuitively obvious, but it is also mathematically true.

Are you sure about this?
...
...
It doesn't matter. I like your Plum vote, and I say we move on.

Could have sworn I replied to this earlier. Yes, I'm completely sure. I'm also happy to move on, just wanting to make sure you weren't going to vote based on that.

[esuriospiritus]

Esurio, two things. One, explain how I'm lurking. Two, explain how you're not full of IoA. If you're trying to make a point then make it instead of waiting for someone else to based on your post so you don't stand out.

You're right. That should be:

active

lurking galore and a relative lack of scumhunting

I guess I didn't edit

Oh, you've been here all right. Hell, your iso has ten pages. But a lot of your posts don't have

substance

to them. In the majority of your posts you have limited yourself to one sentence or one question that may or may not actually have anything to do with looking for scum (hint: a lot of the posts are snarky remarks to people, or a question about their posts, but hardly ever do you put your own opinion out there any more transparently than "hey something's up with this person, I am going to ask them a question about their post"). You tried to ride the wave of your 'obv-town-ness' after millar was killed until everyone else made it clear that wasn't going to fly. The

first

string of actual useful posts you make as far as getting a good read on your thoughts on the other players comes on page 6 of your iso. You improve on your fluff-to-substance ratio later on, but the early posts are indicative of scum not wanting to make their "stances" on the majority of players clear and obvious.

Does town have any motivation for posting lots but keeping reads on other players under wraps? No.

Does scum? You bet.

Two, explain how you're not full of IoA.

o_O How about you explain how I

am

, and then I'll beat your inevitable word-twisting and misrep into a bloody pulp.

If you're trying to make a point then make it

I wasn't, I was just answering KMD's question about my reads.

instead of waiting for someone else to based on your post so you don't stand out.

Could you elaborate on this? I've read this sentence like ten times and I

still

don't know what you're trying to say. "If you're trying to make a point, then make it."

[Battousai]

there is no clustering effect in picking a random mafiate (or two) from a list of players. This is all intuitively obvious, but it is also mathematically true.

Are you sure about this?
...
...
It doesn't matter. I like your Plum vote, and I say we move on.

Could have sworn I replied to this earlier. Yes, I'm completely sure. I'm also happy to move on, just wanting to make sure you weren't going to vote based on that.

He did vote based on it. He used it as an excuse to jump off the plum wagon and onto Nacho (who's player number is right in the middle) along with his past call of nacho being scum for playing the same here as he was in LWM1.

I also agree with Ythan over his discussion with Charlie. Charlie called for plum's lynch today and nacho's tomorrow. Ythan only pointed out that charlie shouldn't call tomorrow's lynch (which is blantantly obvious as Charlie is very anti-town). Charlie then calls ythan out for dictating that charlie shoulding dictate and strawmans the point by implying that Ythan is trying to control the game since he has the most amount of votes.

And surprise, surprise, Kmd sides with Charlie. WTF? Kmd is not that bad of a player, people. He says he sheeps charlie more than charlie sheeps him recently. So, he is doing it again to reinforce the point. Again, Kmd is not this bad of a player to agree with Charlie. CHARLIE!

[Charlie]

He did vote based on it. He used it as an excuse to jump off the plum wagon and onto Nacho (who's player number is right in the middle) along with his past call of nacho being scum for playing the same here as he was in LWM1.

I also agree with Ythan over his discussion with Charlie. Charlie called for plum's lynch today and nacho's tomorrow. Ythan only pointed out that charlie shouldn't call tomorrow's lynch (which is blantantly obvious as Charlie is very anti-town). Charlie then calls ythan out for dictating that charlie shoulding dictate and strawmans the point by implying that Ythan is trying to control the game since he has the most amount of votes.

And surprise, surprise, Kmd sides with Charlie. WTF? Kmd is not that bad of a player, people. He says he sheeps charlie more than charlie sheeps him recently. So, he is doing it again to reinforce the point. Again, Kmd is not this bad of a player to agree with Charlie. CHARLIE!

What is your main point? Either Plum or Nacho is (or is it "are"?) my choice of lynch, thus my vote. That's no excuse used by me.

[Battousai]

2 points.... you are very anti-town/border scum, and Kmd is scum.

Your excuse for voting Nacho is clearly stated and is bullshit. The only case you've presented that I have found, is that nacho is playing like he did in LWM1 and the scum cluster theory. Both are asinine.