/Invitational 11: Pick your Poison 5 (Game Over)

[Fate]

HH WHAT THE FUCK IS GIVING YOU PAUSE.

WHAT THE FUCK HAS OOBA DONE.

WHAT DO I NEED TO SHOOT DOWN.

THIS NEEDS TO GET DONE.

NO ONE WILL BE ABLE TO CHANGE THIS WAGON.

NO ONE.

[SpyreX]

Ok, can we get this done so we can get to lynching HH because my GOD:

Hey Spyrex, Pokerface is bussing you and he's using the same logic I did. Where are you now?

ACTUALLY, there's a fundamental difference (while PF is on the drugs and you're scum and all):

Pokerface is saying "SpyreX is scum IF only one of ooba/HH is scum"

You're saying "In all scenarios SpyreX is scum."

AND FATE I SWEAR TO EVERYTHING IF OOBA IS TOWN AND HH IS SCUM YOU BETTER BE SCUM OR YOUR TURNING IN YOUR BADGE.

[CrashTextDummie]

Up to page 50 read. Analysis:

Zoraster lynch happened in these pages, which I thought was terrible. The scummiest vote came from SpyreX. I don't see how the reasoning he provided for the vote indicated scum-zoraster in the slightest. Plum gets further town-points for catching this bit of opportunism. All the while, SpyreX continued being at arms with VV, which

continues

to smell of busing.

Second scummiest vote on the zoraster-wagon belongs to mith (the first one, not the near deadline one). I had a similar reaction to this as KMD had (I assume this is the "tracker was left alive because he suspected mith" episode Fate talked about), it didn't feel genuine.

[...] add the possibility that he's scum playing dumb and it's yet another point against him.

Nope, not buying it.

Didn't like miths defense against this line of thinking much either. It relied too much on "scum-mith would do that/scum-mith wouldn't do that" reasoning for my taste (Post 1150, Post 1171). Do have to admit that the football-analogy part of his defense went a bit over my head, though.

Interactions between DGB and mith felt weird and a bit staged in these pages. Mith unvotes DGB, votes zoraster -> DGB votes mith -> Mith votes DGB again -> DGB votes zoraster -> Mith votes zoraster. Can't really put my finger on it, but it left a bad taste in my mouth.

VasudeVa continues to be very suspicious. He was among the people who drove the zoraster-wagon to the point where it became feasible, at which point he abandoned it and seemed to make a conscious effort not to get attached to it again (his vote went to mith, then to SpyreX, despite claiming continued suspicion of zoraster). Behavior towards DGB also doesn't speak in his favor either. I don't understand why he's not dead.

At this point, I'm convinced there's more scum than town in this group of players: {VasudeVa, mith, SpyreX}

Plumegranate continues to be obvtown. EkiM's vote against zoraster doesn't bother me too much compared to the others mentioned. Ooba's play continues to be underwhelming (he managed 30 posts in the first 50 pages, and about half of them were of the "will catch up" nature (slight exaggeration)), but he's not a prime suspect. MME-Playerslot continues doing nothing. My patience is wearing thin.

Next 10 pages coming up.

[SpyreX]

NOTTT to mention HH that IF you believed your own madness that PF is trying to bus me THEN his statement of "one of X and Y" is scum would HAVE to be true and if, like you're so apt to say, you were town that would MAKE OOBA SCUM.

Yet, nope. Just throwin out those softballs.

And I'll not derail the textdummie since we're obviously waiting until he's done.

[Fate]

Why isn't this thread locked.

[Fate]

God dammit CTD "ooba underwhelms"

=/=

OOBATOWN. JUST BECAUSE HE HASN'T.

Stop.

Calm down....

it'll all be over soon.

*rocks back and forth slowly*

[SpyreX]

YOU KNOW WHY

[Fate]

SPYREX VV IS *PANTS ON HEAD* SCUMMY.

HH IS, YES I KNOW THE CHANCES OF BOTH THEM BEING SO TERRIBLE ARE LOW, THE SAME.

HE'S ALL "WOOOOOOHAHAHAAAAAAA I DON WANNA HAMMER OOBA CAUSE IF HES TOWN THAT MEANS BAD NEWS BEARS FOR MEEEE"

ITS TOWNMADNESS. MADNESS, BUT TOWN.

[CrashTextDummie]

I read pages 51-60, in which everyone got replaced and things started getting painful again.

First of all:
What the hell @ Plum wagon. I refuse to believe there was only one scum on it. Fate and HackerHuck are the candidates. Oh hi, HackerHuck. Only 4 posts in the game so far and already I have every reason to believe my read on his predecessor was right.

I am not impressed by Fate's entry into the game. A lot of what he posts is pure rubbish. Treatment of DGB is bad. Treatment of other people is equally bad (as far as my reads are concerned). It's counterbalanced somewhat by his brashness and an apparent drive to get shit done. IGMEOY.

Iamausername's entry was a mixed bag: Clearly he put a lot of effort in it. Some of his reads are spot-on (Plum, MME), some are the opposite (all his top suspects sans DGB). I felt that his case against DGB was strongest, and yet she doesn't top his list. I also have a problem with his "if one of DGB/Rhinox flips scum, it clears the other and if one flips town it implicates the other" theory considering the alignment of these two players. I started feeling better about him as the game went on, but those are still things worth pointing out.

Ooba did just that. He continues not contributing a lot, but when he does, it's usually spot-on. Is something drastic gonna happen in those next 15 pages? Because I don't see myself hammering him at this point.

Mith continues hating DGB. It doesn't improve my opinion of him by much. Scum-DGB gets bussed, that's pretty much a law of mafia. In my experience, it's hard to make sense of DGBs antics irregardless of her alignment unless you're scum with her. Hence why it's usually easier for her scum-buddies to see her scum-moves for what they are than it is for a townie. This is not to say that I count his general correctitude re: DGB as a point against mith, because it's entirely possible for a player of his caliber to get DGB right even as town (I think he even mentioned having a good track record at reading her) and I'm trying to avoid falling into the trap of confirmation bias. It's just that I don't really award town points to players who call scum-DGB from the beginning of the game (particularly if that player still ends up on two town-lynches along the way).

Why is SpyreX voting ooba and not HackerHuck? Doesn't make much sense to me after he's been calling the latter scum for so long. Could it be that he was bussing a weak-ass scum-partner and stopped as soon as he was replaced? Just a thought.

PokerFace is also new, but he has done nothing yet. Quite frankly, I don't really care.

HackerHuck, Mith, SpyreX <- look for scum here

I will finish my analysis tomorrow just to spite Fate. Good night.

[CrashTextDummie]

If I'm wrong about one of those three, replace with Fate.

[SpyreX]

I will finish my analysis tomorrow just to spite Fate. Good night.

WHY

WHY GOD

[CrashTextDummie]

By the by, could someone unvote ooba in the meantime please? I'd hate for HackerHuck to drop the hammer before I'm done.

[Fate]

By the by, could someone unvote ooba in the meantime please? I'd hate for HackerHuck to drop the hammer before I'm done.

HA.

WHO YOU GONNA LISTEN TO RIGHTEOUS OOBA WAGON?

ME?
OR
SOME FNG?

[mith]

Fate: A wise man once said, "Fair enough, I'll tone it down given the nature of the /invitationals and the fact Patrick didn't ask if me replacing in was ok." (Then he apparently went mad?)

I'm pretty confident that CTD is town; scumCTD would have little reason to rock the "mith is obvtown" boat, and his thoughts on the game read genuine (if misguided with respect to me).

CTD: I'm not going to rehash the argument with Kmd again (though I will add that the football analogy is especially powerful at the moment, with the Bears unexpectedly leading the NFC North), but if you have any specific questions for me, ask away.

[Re: The massclaim discussion... Knowing the setup now, I think I still would end up arguing against massclaim. Out of curiosity, I ran some numbers on an Open 4:16 2 Vig 2 Tracker setup, with a basic strategy of "Scum don't fake claim, Vigs announce their kills at the end of day and shoot every night until they die, Trackers split the town between them and choose someone at random from among the non-Vig targets, Mafia kill the Vigs first and then the Trackers". EV = 33.7%. A bit higher than I expected, but not enough for me to give away the opportunity for lots of extra town-controlled kills (for comparison, 4:16 Vanilla Double Day is 32.4%). It's clear that in this game we haven't gotten the benefit out of the power roles staying hidden to justify no-massclaim... but we have had a combination of questionable power role play (Kmd outing Elmo, Rhinox basically outing himself rather than just agreeing with my post as justification for his vote, Kmd tracking obvtown Rhinox), inaccurate shooting, and (depending on what happened night 2) terrible luck.]

I was going to say that there's no point unvoting ooba - someone hammering before we're ready would be obvscum - but reading Town of Suspicion to check on CTD's play there reminded me that oobascum could self-hammer to end the day early. My vote will go back on him tomorrow night.

UNVOTE: ooba

[Fate]

A WISE MAN ONCE SAID OOBA WAS OBVSCUM.

THEN THE REST OF THE TOWN WENT MAD AND REFUSED TO LYNCH HIM.

THEN THE ONLY WISE MAN LEFT LOOKED INSANE BY COMPARISON.

SO IT GOES.

[PokerFace]

I caught up and read the things I missed. I'd be happy with a lynch of either HH or ooba as both can be scum and can be scum together. After CTD catches up I'll change my vote if its needed

[ooba]

Lol .. I actually thought I was hammered .. I shall also skim read D1-D2 and give you my findings (hopefully before I'm lynched) ..

[HackerHuck]

By the by, could someone unvote ooba in the meantime please? I'd hate for HackerHuck to drop the hammer before I'm done.

Are you really worried about me doing this?

I know that Fate is really pushing for an ooba lynch, but looking back at the Plumegranate wagon, there's bound to be scum on it - especially considering so many of you consider them to be obvtown. We're now down to just PokerFace and me as the two survivors, so it makes more sense to focus our energies there and lynch one of us. I'd obviously prefer it to be pokerface. I also wouldn't worry all too much about the scum roleblocker surviving today, because if it is ooba then I don't see any way that the scum team would have let him skip a night of roleblocking and he only has four shots. That means the roleblocker should be out of shots for night five.

[Patrick]

Votecount

PokerFace (1) -- HackerHuck
HackerHuck (2) -- PokerFace, iamausername
ooba (3) -- Fate, Plumegranate, SpyreX

Not voting: ooba, CrashTextDummie, mith
9 alive, lynch at 5

[ooba]

By the by, could someone unvote ooba in the meantime please? I'd hate for HackerHuck to drop the hammer before I'm done.

Are you really worried about me doing this?

I know that Fate is really pushing for an ooba lynch, but looking back at the Plumegranate wagon, there's bound to be scum on it - especially considering so many of you consider them to be obvtown. We're now down to just PokerFace and me as the two survivors, so it makes more sense to focus our energies there and lynch one of us. I'd obviously prefer it to be pokerface.

I also wouldn't worry all too much about the scum roleblocker surviving today, because if it is ooba

then I don't see any way that the scum team would have let him skip a night of roleblocking and he only has four shots. That means the roleblocker should be out of shots for night five.

HH reinforcing the ooba-HH pairing so that I get lynched .. Also subtle reinforcement of ooba=roleblocker theory ..

Vote: HH

[SpyreX]

Lol .. I actually thought I was hammered .. I shall also skim read D1-D2 and give you my findings (hopefully before I'm lynched) ..

TICK TOCK GOES THE CLOCK

[CrashTextDummie]

Praise the lord, I'm all caught up.

HackerHuck and SpyreX are scum together. I will eat my hat, my coat and my pants if they are not. SpyreX has been hating on HH/VasudeVa

all game long

. Not a day has passed in which he didn't lament the lack of VV death or thank the heavens when a wagon on him started to form. And yet he ended up on every single lynch (usually in very opportunistic fashion and on weak reasoning) and is currently voting ooba. Of further note is his extended period of ooba-voting on D3 when VV got replaced by HackerHuck.

Also take a look at VasudeVa in ISO and Control F "SpyreX". The first time he even

mentions

him is on page fucking 48. This despite his whole "people voting me are scummy" spiel he spent most of his time arguing against Seraphim for. It couldn't be more obvious that they are scum-buddies.

HackerHuck is individually the most scummy player by far, bar none, no contest. Iamausername has summed it up over the last couple of pages. No sane townie would ever make an argument or analysis under the assumption that he himself is scum. And this is just the icing on the cake made of a staggering amount of evidence that this playerslot has played a scummy game from beginning to end. Any lynch today that isn't HackerHuck is just poor town play.

I found it easier to see mith as town ever since DGB died. He made some observations that even a scum-player as good as him would have a hard time coming up with (the VasudeVa slip, for example). Based on the last couple of days, he's not one of my top suspects anymore, even though he ended up on yesterday's mislynch and has participated in todays ooba-wagon shenanigans.

Most likely 3rd scum alongside HH/SpyreX is Fate, who has done little but derail good wagons and fuel bad or suspect ones ever since he replaced.

I have no interest in lynching ooba today. Apart from a general lack of participation, I have little to object to in his play. Actual content contributions are more good than bad. I really don't understand how this wagon sprung up all of a sudden.

Iamausername has emerged as the most pro-town player thanks to heaps of :goodposting:. Plumegranate has slipped some due to undesireable voting over the last couple days, but remains uninteresting. The same is true for Pokerface, who has built some on the good faith I had in his predecessors.

Scum:
HackerHuck
SpyreX

Possible scum:
Fate
mith

Probably not scum:
ooba
PokerFace

Most likely town:
Plumegranate
Iamausername

Vote: HackerHuck

[CrashTextDummie]

I will answer questions directed at me by mith and HH tomorrow, provided we're not in night by then.

[Fate]

Lol .. I actually thought I was hammered .. I shall also skim read D1-D2 and give you my findings (hopefully before I'm lynched) ..

TICK TOCK GOES THE CLOCK

whoa whoa whoa haoaaaaaaaaa

WHOA WHOA WHOA..


IS THAT A CTD RE-READ COMPLETE GO AHEAD POST I SEE ABOVE ME?

[SpyreX]

No, thats me calling him out on more "I'll reread guys" when he has no intention of doing so.