StrangerCoug's Worst Nightmare IIIS: The Dungeon (Game over)

[Espeonage]

If we could have a votecount before I vote BE?

[The Stove]

BE has 6 votes. CK3 has 1. Tasky has 1. It should be 9 to lynch. 16 alive.

Moar BE votes while Papa Ziti and I discuss the events.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Tasky has no votes. I switched to BE

[The Stove]

Noting that in the last game, there were only 4 scum (and an SK) this seems like... extreme.

I know I played a pristine game, but it was 5 scums. Me, Parma, bv310/Smashbro_SSS, xvart and someone else. I forget who #5 was. Katsuki mebbe?

-AGar

Pedit: Ok cool. Still 6 on BE by my count.

[xvart]

xvart. I suggested the same thing at the beginning of SWIII. I quickly realized the following.

Even if scum WERE to /fake/ a PR, to seem town, it's WIFOM trying to determine who, if any, are faking.

1

Also, it's likely that SC has set 1 person from the mafia side, to have a legit PR, just to balance.

2

Discussing PR's and how they affect us, yields no information past the point of "who wants to translate shotty's post now?"

Drop the subject, and move on to other suspicious activities.

3

1

I'm not suggesting that there is a scum faking a post restriction.

2

This is what I'm talking about. There is probably at least one scum that has a post restriction. Three scum have flipped and none have had a post restriction. Therefore, one of the post restrictions is likely a member of the scum team.

3

Why would I drop the subject when you agree that there is likely a scum member identified in the pool of three.

ci sono solo 3 prs, non si assumono almeno uno è feccia. E 'un nulla dire.

[[TRANSLATED: there are only 3 prs, assume at least one is scum. And 'nothing to say.]]

Even chesskid agrees that one of the three post restricted people is scum. I think his appeal to logic here is an attempt to get us looking at the other post restricted people.

Lady Lambdadelta (post 411) - Maybe the daykiller is the SK.

smargaret (posts 413 and 421) - The fact that there are so few town deaths during the night (and the lack of multiple kills each night) suggests that there is not multiple scum factions unless they are terribly unlucky in targetting people that cannot die during the night or are not protected by some means. smargaret's push for the multiple scum team faction seems to be a little forced as all evidence suggests one scum team, and therefore a distraction.

FoS: smargaret

Can someone give me some bulletpoints on the BE lynch case?

xvart.

[chesskid3]

ci sono solo 3 prs, non si assumono almeno uno è feccia. E 'un nulla dire.

[[TRANSLATED: there are only 3 prs, assume at least one is scum. And 'nothing to say.]]

Even chesskid agrees that one of the three post restricted people is scum. I think his appeal to logic here is an attempt to get us looking at the other post restricted people.

No. non quello che ho detto.

Ho detto che è un null raccontare.

In realtà

, dato che 3 feccia sono morti, è

improbabile

che uno dei restanti 2 prs è feccia

[smargaret]

xvart, I'd rather Tasky took a look at your translation, but I think it's not quite right. Specifically, "nothing to say" is Google Translate's way of saying "null tell".

And I think that's essentially what chesskid is saying.

"No, that is not what I said.

I said it was a null tell.

In reality, if there are three dead scum, it is unlikely that one of the remaining two post restrictions is scum."

right?

[BrookylnConstruction]

Yo... so why am i still the best lynch for today?

Yo... might I add that if we had lynched the claimed VT.... WE WOULDN'T HAVE LYNCHED THE COP!

slightly hypocritical of me to say, but still... the town sucks here -.-

Vote: Tasky

-gives off major scum vibes to me.

[chesskid3]

xvart, I'd rather Tasky took a look at your translation, but I think it's not quite right. Specifically, "nothing to say" is Google Translate's way of saying "null tell".

And I think that's essentially what chesskid is saying.

"No, that is not what I said.

I said it was a null tell.

In reality, if there are three dead scum, it is unlikely that one of the remaining two post restrictions is scum."

right?

si

[xvart]

No. non quello che ho detto.

Ho detto che è un null raccontare.

In realtà

, dato che 3 feccia sono morti, è

improbabile

che uno dei restanti 2 prs è feccia

[[TRANSLATED: No, not what I said.

I said it's a null tell.

In reality, as dregs of 3 died, it is unlikely that one of the remaining 2 prs is scum]]

False statistical analysis. You are basing probability on occurrences that happened after the post restrictions were assigned.

xvart.

[smargaret]

And you are basing analyses on modWIFOM. I'm not with it enough to actually work out the odds that one of the prs is scum, but can we put this line of thought on the backburner until you've read SWN 3 and read the argument there?

[chesskid3]

No. non quello che ho detto.

Ho detto che è un null raccontare.

In realtà

, dato che 3 feccia sono morti, è

improbabile

che uno dei restanti 2 prs è feccia

[[TRANSLATED: No, not what I said.

I said it's a null tell.

In reality, as dregs of 3 died, it is unlikely that one of the remaining 2 prs is scum]]

False statistical analysis

. You are basing probability on occurrences that happened after the post restrictions were assigned.

xvart.

Uh, no.
Supponiamo che ci siano 20 giocatori, 5 feccia, con 3 PR assegnati casualmente. Il numero atteso di feccia con PRS è (3) (1 / 4) = 0,75.
Le probabilità sono: 0 PR feccia: 15 * 14 * 13 / (20 * 19 * 18) = 40%
1 feccia PR: 5 * (15 * 14 / 2) / (20 * 19 * 18 / 6) = 45%
2 PR feccia: (5 * 4 / 2) (15) / (20 * 19 * 18 / 6) = 13%
3 PR feccia: (5 * 4 * 3) / (20 * 19 * 18) = 1%

Ora che sappiamo che tre sono morti feccia senza PR, e un morto PR, abbiamo:
16 giocatori, 2 feccia, 2 PR assegnati in modo casuale:
Numero previsto di feccia con PRS è (2) (2 / 16) = 0,25
Le probabilità sono: 0 PR feccia: (14 * 13 / (16 * 15)) = 76%
1 feccia PR: (2 * 14) / (16 * 15 / 2) = 23%
2 feccia PR: (2 * 1) / (16 * 15) = 1%

Succhiarlo.
Sono un grande matematico. So come funziona probabilità.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Yo... so why am i still the best lynch for today?

Yo... might I add that if we had lynched the claimed VT.... WE WOULDN'T HAVE LYNCHED THE COP!

slightly hypocritical of me to say, but still... the town sucks here -.-

Vote: Tasky

-gives off major scum vibes to me.

Try reading the thread next time. I asked the mod if the lynch yesterday was caused by a miscount of the votes. This was confirmed. Tasky was not at fault for the lynch.

[Antihero]

xvart, please stop failing and read the thread.

Yo... so why am i still the best lynch for today?

I don't know, why was BS the best lynch for yesterday?

Yo... might I add that if we had lynched the claimed VT.... WE WOULDN'T HAVE LYNCHED THE COP!

Yo... might I add YOU WERE ON THE WAGON!

Vote: Tasky

-gives off major scum vibes to me.

You can drop the act now. You're fooling no one.

[xvart]

And you are basing analyses on modWIFOM. I'm not with it enough to actually work out the odds that one of the prs is scum, but can we put this line of thought on the backburner until you've read SWN 3 and read the argument there?

Once again, the discussion in SWNIII is irrelevant because the discussion is completely different. That discussion, as I recall, happened on D1 when nobody had flipped a post restriction and the discussion at that point was lynching post restrictions. Here we are talking about lynching post restrictions because there is probably at least one on the scum team. Since we have three scum flipped with no post restrictions, that leaves a pretty narrow margin for targeting. Here is what I do know:

There were no post restrictions of any alignment in SWN1 (I didn't read the game but there were no flips that showed a post restriction and I searched for "restricted" and "restriction" which yielded no results).

FeFiFoFum, who replaced MafiaSSK, who was a

Greek Mafia goon

turned

post-restricted Greek Mafia goon

, has been lynched on Day 2.

MafiaSSK, you are a Mafia post-restricted role cop.

Parama, you are a Mafia post-restricted goon.

---

Uh, no.
Suppose there are 20 players, 5 dregs, with 3 PR

assigned randomly

. The expected number of scum with PRS (3) (1 / 4) = 0.75.
The odds are: 0 PR scum: 15 * 14 * 13 / (20 * 19 * 18) = 40%
1 scum PR: 5 * (15 * 14 / 2) / (20 * 19 * 18 / 6) = 45%
2 PR scum (5 * 4 / 2) (15) / (20 * 19 * 18 / 6) = 13%
3 PR scum (5 * 4 * 3) / (20 * 19 * 18) = 1%

Now that we know that three are dead scum without PR and a PR dead, we have:
16 players, 2 scum, 2 PR randomly assigned:
Expected number of scum with PRS (2) (2 / 16) = 0.25
The odds are: 0 PR scum (14 * 13 / (16 * 15)) = 76%
1 PR scum (2 * 14) / (16 * 15 / 2) = 23%
2 PR scum (2 * 1) / (16 * 15) = 1%

Suck it.
I am a great mathematician. So how likely.

Okay, but your assumption that post restrictions are assigned randomly is based on what? Did SC tell you this? Did you see some invisible mod notes in one of the previous games? I would think with such thought put into the game and mod notes about roles in previous SWN games (including the halted SWNIII game) that there would be something, somewhere that said post restrictions were assigned randomly.

Again, what's the case on BE? I've read BE's ISO, read the pages before the lynch; I'm just not seeing what happened since the day start that suggests BE is scum that would not have been obvious yesterday and BE been the lynch yesterday.

xvart.

[chesskid3]

e perché si assume che non sono assegnati in modo casuale?

[smargaret]

xvart, night happened.

[xvart]

and because it is assumed that are not assigned at random?

You must have missed the part about me finding it suspect that SC would not include the randomized post restrictions in his moderator notes posted end game with all his other plethora of moderator notes.

Also, the point I was making about reverse statistics was that your example is perfectly fine, up until the point where you are doing the second set of statistics after the scum flips because it does not take into account that the data set is no longer random. Predicting probability on whether there is a post restriction after the flips has no bearing on there actually being a post restriction since

the post restrictions and roles have already been assigned

.

And why are you continuing to try to undermine me to defend yourself and not explaining the BE wagon which you are currently a member of; unless you don't know and are just shamelessly bandwagonning a wagon that everyone else bandwagonning.

xvart.

[Antihero]

Hey xvart, get a clue.

[chesskid3]

and because it is assumed that are not assigned at random?

You must have missed the part about me finding it suspect that SC would not include the randomized post restrictions in his moderator notes posted end game with all his other plethora of moderator notes.

Also, the point I was making about reverse statistics was that your example is perfectly fine, up until the point where you are doing the second set of statistics after the scum flips because it does not take into account that the data set is no longer random. Predicting probability on whether there is a post restriction after the flips has no bearing on there actually being a post restriction since

the post restrictions and roles have already been assigned

.

And why are you continuing to try to undermine me to defend yourself and not explaining the BE wagon which you are currently a member of; unless you don't know and are just shamelessly bandwagonning a wagon that everyone else bandwagonning.

xvart.

Usa un traduttore migliore, per favore. Ti ho chiesto il motivo per cui credo che non è casuale.

avete bisogno di imparare come funziona probabilità. Ad esempio, la probabilità che ci sono stati 3 feccia con PRS è stato inizialmente non-zero, e ora che BS ha ribaltato città, è 0.

Per quanto riguarda la tua accusa di minare, io "difendere" me stesso quando effettivamente fare un'accusa, non speculare sul setup e suggerire due misslynches probabile.

Inizia a giocare pro-città, o ottenere vigged.

[smargaret]

I'm not liking xvart's play today at all. He's voting chesskid for no reason other than statistics instead of actually scumhunting. He is being almost deliberately obtuse about BE, he is rolefishing, he is abusing google translate to misrep someone I have a town read on, he didn't manage to reread the thread even given a night (possibly WIFOM, but suggests he had other stuff to do at night maybe?), and the slot he replaced into didn't post anything day 1 (hypocrisy, your name is smargaret, but I'm off the V/LA now).

Based on who was on the wagon yesterday and how it was being pushed, I have a town read on chesskid. He's an easy lynch and a bus just doesn't make sense to me. I'm also not really a fan of Twomz or Tasky, and I think there's a replacement still who has yet to say anything.

If BE is scum, xvart is scum. If BE is town, xvart is probably town.

[Espeonage]

k then. VOTE: BE

[Antihero]

While xvart is annoyingly misguided about BE, I'm getting a townread on him.

While xvart's idea of exculsively lynching people with PRs is a bad one, I'm willing to bet there is scum among people with PRs (yes, I looked at your math, chesskid; while I do not doubt your skills as a mathematician, I disagree with your conclusion). Personally, my pick for post-restricted scum is manho. Let's go back to his post yesterday:

why is Baby Spice still alive. he's the most obvscum i've seen.
BE's vote on LLD is not a scum tell to me, as i always thought that lynching a claimed VT is standard procedure.
LLD is town for the reaction to the his own lynch.
Tasky is scum for unwilling to read and scumhunt.
M=W is scum for doing nothing but pushing the well-established wagon on LLD and BS.
someone do an ISO on Twomz will find that if you remove the PR-first liner, he has no content at all. so he's scum also.
parama is town. and i will think the stove is town if not agar did the great job in the original SWNIII as scum.
other is a no read or no time to read for now.

VOTE: Baby Spice

First off, he got Baby Spice's gender wrong, so I'm willing to bet he didn't look at her posts very closely.
He makes sure to specifically counter the point that BE's LLD wagon hop is perfectly OK (calling it "standard procedure," whatever that means).
He piles on to the people attacking Tasky without adding anything ... how original.
The M=W point doesn't make any sense at all, and looks like a bunch of spaghetti flinging. Not to mention the "pushing the wagon on BS" point is hypocritical.
Yeah, yeah, yeah... buddy up to parama so he doesn't publicly exhibit you on his list as scum.

[chesskid3]

Google Translate mi ha fatto sembrare arrogante, quando tutto quello che ho effettivamente detto è che ero laureando in matematica.
Inoltre non ho mai detto che non poteva essere feccia nelle persone con pr, ma trattarlo come un nulla dire, altrimenti è probabile che come risultato un misslynch lungo la strada.

Infine, per evitare un quicklynch (dato che è a come L-2 o qualcosa di già)

Unvote [/ b]

[Antihero]

I didn't think you sounded arrogant.

Who, besides BE, do you think is scum, chess? Same question for you, espy.