Open 226: Big Love - Game over! Town wins!

[DizzyIzzyB13]

@Ythill:

How about you

not

be a narcissistic asshole for once in your life.

Play nice.

[hitogoroshi]

My top suspects are Ythill and Zerofang. I'm in favor of lover claims. I'll post the ISOs/cases after the claims, on the chance one/both of them claims lover.

[Ythill]

You're funny, hito. ZF looks town at this point. Did you check out the VCs yet?

People need to post.

[Miyu]

Sorry. Have not heard this popcorn terminology before. So figured it was just go and say who to go next. Then I forgot to say who next.
Oh I know how to count. Those are the people I find the scummiest. Never clear cut. It basically rotates. As one will say something which I find to be townie, so they move down; then they'll speak again and it'll be scummy, so they'll move up.

Nah, You're buying me dinner.

Sorry for not sitting next to this thread all night to keep it warm. I was out watching a documentary. I am not against lovers claiming at this point, if after every one says their scumpicks. However, if they feel they can go through the day without revealing, and we can get a scum - then I'm not against that either. But that is just my personal opinion (see here, my own thoughts, from my head) in regards to powerroles.

Sanxion should go next.

[Ythill]

My nagging was for the people who haven't posted their suspects, FWIW.

[ZeroFang]

The lovers should claim today.

My top two suspects are DP and Ythill.

[ZeroFang]

EBWOP: That should be Sanxion and Ythill

[Ythill]

Heh. Sanx is town too.

We have yet to hear from him, Sandman, and Red. C'mon people, now is not the time to lurk if you're town.

[Miyu]

I think we should get a pair of pliers out, and start pulling teeth. No anesthetic.

Egh. Ninja poster.
How is Sanxion town?

[Ythill]

You know I had a root canal today, right?

I'm not going to start arguing for why people are town. He just is.

[Miyu]

No I didn't know that.
Well I hope you 'argue' it, once they all decide to say who they think are scum.

[Ythill]

You also hope I can't show that you're scum, but that's not very likley either. You really should have killed me last night.

[Miyu]

I'm not scum, so good luck on trying.

[DavidParker]

HAH.

[Ythill]

Of course you're going to say that. However, the facts are compelling. Not only does mallow's flip negate the caveat from yesterday, but other new information has surfaced as well. If you actually are town, you will have some work to do convincing me. I wish I could say more, but the lurkers have brought this game to a stop. One more day before prods can be sent out.

Even if I am wrong about Miyu, at least one town player must be stalling. This is not acceptable, as it is wasting our time before deadline. Post your scumpicks. Now.

I've been doing analysis behind the scenes and I'm no longer completely sure about Red. Miyu is still my #1 suspect by a long shot though.

[Mr.Sandman]

The lovers should claim. If we lynch town today and the scum hit a lover, it's all over, therefore the obvious thing to do is to minimise the risk today by gaining all the information we can.

My top two suspects are Miyu and Sanxion.

[RedCoyote]

Day 1 Lynch

chihuahua0

(smashbro_of_the_SSS,

don_johnson

,

Fidelis

, Sanxion1,

Robocopter87

,

DavidParker

,

Zajnet

,

yabbaguy

,

millar13

,

Shattered Viewpoint

) 10 (L-0)

millar13

(Mr.Sandman,

chihuahua0

) 2 (L-8)

Robocopter87

(

Xite9

) 1 (L-9)

Xite91

(Switz,

Pittbunny

, Muthaa, ZeroFang) 4 (L-6)
Not voting:

Enigma

, Wacka Alpaca

Day 2 Lynch

Enigma

(

DavidParker

) 1 L-8

Shattered Viewpoint

(Switz, Mr.Sandman, smashbro_of_the_SSS,

Zajnet

, Sanxion,

mallowgeno

,

don_johnson

,

millar13

,

Shattered Viewpoint

) 9 L-0

Zajnet

(

yabbaguy

) 1 L-8
Not voting:

Enigma

, Muthaa,

Robocopter87

, Wacka Alpaca, ZeroFang

Day 3 Lynch

mallowgeno

(

Zajnet

) 2 L-6
Wacka Alpaca (Sanxion, Muthaa) 2 L-6

Zajnet

(Switz, ZeroFang,

don_johnson

,

Robocopter87

, Mr.Sandman,

DavidParker

,

mallowgeno

, smashbro_of_the_SSS) 7 L-1
Not voting:

Enigma

,

millar13

, Wacka Alpaca

Day 4 Lynch

mallowgeno

(

Enigma

) 1 L-6
Miyu (Muthaa, Mr.Sandman) 2 L-5

Robocopter87

(

mallowgeno

, Sanxion, Miyu, RedCoyote, ZeroFang,

drmyshottyizsik

,

DavidParker

) 7 L-30
Sanxion (

Robocopter87

) 1 L-6
Not voting: Switz

Day 5 Lynch

DavidParker

(Miyu) 1 L-2

mallowgeno

(

DavidParker

, Ythill, hitogoroshi, RedCoyote, Mr. Sandman) 5 L-0
Miyu (

mallowgeno

) 1 L-4
Muthaa (ZeroFang) 1 L-4
Not voting: Sanxion

As much as I think Sanxion was doing a little innocent WIFOM earlier, the vote counts don't lie.

I think the most telling lynches are those of Day 1 and 4. On the first day, there can probably be two schools of thought. One is that SV used good strategy in nailing a scumbuddy to the wall when the wagon was full of townies (assuming that the scum know who the scum lover is, which I think they don't if I remember correctly), and the other school is that odds just don't work that way. As incriminatory as it may look for me, that's a big red flag that's hard to ignore.

Day 4 may be just as interesting though, perhaps because of how we've got townies sandwiching in the wagon here. I've said it before and I'll say it again, ZF makes out as the ugliest player here going just by vote counts. Neither of the scum lynches and two town lynches up until this most recent day.

It should be said that it's not particularly flattering to be on every lynch wagon myself.

Anyways, those are my two picks. Sanxion and ZF.

Waiting to hear if Sanxion claims, but otherwise you may consider my vote reserved for him.

[Miyu]

Would be nice if we could move on from this stage already. I'm anxious to hear what Mr.Sandman has to say. I hope you've been using the time to get caught up on the thread. Which means answering questions which were posed to you, a ridiculous number of days ago.

[Ythill]

Would be nice if we could move on from this stage already.

QFT.

Sanx will qualify for a prod in about an hour. His lurking is ridiculous, especially considering that he's prob-town. I've got several pages of analysis just sitting on my drive, waiting. And my patience is wearing thin.

[Ythill]

Mod: please prod Sanx.

[DizzyIzzyB13]

Sanxion has been prodded.

[Ythill]

Sorry hito, you can stop distancing now. I'm not going to wait another day for Sanx to post or get replaced, and I'm certainly not waiting for a replacement to catch up. If Sanx is scum (which I doubt) then here's a big, fat congratulations to him for lurking his way out of giving suspicions.

Claim: lover with hito.

Unless the scum have the balls to counter-claim, that means I am now confirmed town. I

love

being confirmed town.

Remember ZF's comment after I replaced in, the part where he said I was sitting up a little group of players with me as the leader? Yeah... that. Well, actually there are two leaders. Two of the the five of you remaining are scum and, if you're one of the townies in that pool, then I hope you'll understand that allowing us to take control of this game is the town's best chance of winning. We're both reasonably intelligent and have a good work ethic. More importantly, we are not manipulating you.

Over the next few days, hito and I are going to determine which of you are scum and which are town. Nobody votes. Use FoS if you want to mark your suspicions. After the decision has been made, we'll vote as a group. At the end of today, we are going to lynch scum and then we are going to die. There will be no new information unless the game is over so, tomorrow, the most trusted of you will lead the others to lynch the second person we agree upon at the end of today.

Although we have no ulterior motives, we are both capable of being wrong. As a town member of the unconfimed, your job is to find every one of our mistakes and bad assumptions. Play devil's advocate. Suggest alternate theories.

Here's a little statement to each of you, then I'm going to start throwing up a bunch of analysis. Sorry about your eyes.

@Sandman:

If you're scum, you've played an incredible game. Meaning that you seem most likley to be town from where I'm sitting. Thanks for the hammer yesterday. Sorry I was wrong.

@Sanx:

Post moar.

@Red:

You confuse me. From some angles, you look obv-scummy. From others, you look spotless. One thing I didn't like was the way you followed me onto a townie yesterday. I'm not infallible. If you're town, we need your brain. I'm watching you closely.

@ZF:

I think about how I came into this thread with my gut on fire for you and Miyu, and I wonder what that felt like for you if you're actually scum with her. I've started looking at the data and there still some interesting things pointing to that team. Then again, there was a caveat or two. I think we'll be chatting a lot today.

@Miyu:

If I was a viglante, you'd already be dead. I've been in this situation before with someone who was town. He argued plainly and dilligently and, over the course of several pages, proved his alignment to me, which won us the game. I

will

listen to you, but I'm not going to fall for craplogic, be swayed by rhetoric, or swoon before AtE. And you have no grounds for OMGUS.

[Ythill]

VC Analysis

I've copied the old ones and added the new flips/confirms. Though I put the whole thing in a quote tag, all of the analysis between the counts is new. Below the big quote box, I added select counts from D5.

chihuahua0

(

don_johnson

, smashbro_of_the_SSS,

Robocopter87

, ZeroFang,

yabbaguy

) 5 (L-5)

Muthaa

(Sanxion,

Xite91

,

chihuahua0

) 3 (L-7)

Reverse Simplicity

(Mr.Sandman) 1 (L-9)

Robocopter87

(

Muthaa

) 1 (L-9)
Wacka Alpaca (

Shattered Viewpoint

) 1 (L-9)

Xite91

(

youngminii

) 1 (L-9)

yabbaguy

(Wacka Alpaca,

millar13

) 2 (L-8)

Not voting:

Fidelis

,

Guthrie

,

PaltryExcuse

,

Pittbunny

,

Reverse Simplicity

One of Red/ZF is scum distancing on the early Chi wagon.

chihuahua0

(

don_johnson

, smashbro_of_the_SSS,

Xite9

) 3 (L-7)

millar13

(

chihuahua0

, ZeroFang, Mr.Sandman,

Robocopter87

, Wacka Alpaca, Sanxion1,

Shattered Viewpoint

) 7 (L-3)

Robocopter87

(

Muthaa

,

Pittbunny

) 2 (L-8)

Xite91

(

youngminii

) 1 (L-9)

Not voting:

Fidelis

,

Guthrie

,

millar13

,

PaltryExcuse

,

Reverse Simplicity

,

yabbaguy

Wasn't ZF just voting chi? Now he's willing to follow him? At least one more scum

must

be on that wagon.

chihuahua0

(smashbro_of_the_SSS) 1 (L-9)

millar13

(ZeroFang, Mr.Sandman, Sanxion1,

chihuahua0

) 4 (L-6)

Robocopter87

(

Xite9

) 1 (L-9)

Xite91

(

youngminii

,

Pittbunny

,

Fidelis

,

Robocopter87

,

yabbaguy

,

millar13

,

don_johnson

, Wacka Alpaca,

Muthaa

) 9 (L-1)

Not voting:

Enigma

,

PaltryExcuse

,

Shattered Viewpoint

,

Zajnet

Why didn't SV hammer? Extreme buddying, playing the long game, or a teammate looking bad on the wagon? Wacka's vote came with a blathered explanation. If it's the long game, then Red's slot looks bad because if the chi bus was the plan from the begining, that would explain why smash parked there for most of D1.

chihuahua0

(smashbro_of_the_SSS,

don_johnson

,

Fidelis

, Sanxion1,

Robocopter87

, ZeroFang) 6 (L-4)

millar13

(Mr.Sandman,

chihuahua0

) 2 (L-8)

Robocopter87

(

Xite9

) 1 (L-9)

Xite91

(

Switz

,

Pittbunny

,

millar13

,

Muthaa

,

Shattered Viewpoint

) 5 (L-5)

Not voting:

Enigma

,

DavidParker

,

yabbaguy

,

Zajnet

, Wacka Alpaca

Chi's been tunneling on Millar all day, ZF and Sanx both came off of the Millar wagon and ended up on chi. Maybe I missed a stepping-stone vote in the interim but it looks like they both avoided hot-topic Xite while crossing to what may be a bus.

chihuahua0

(smashbro_of_the_SSS,

don_johnson

,

Fidelis

, Sanxion1,

Robocopter87

,

DavidParker

,

Zajnet

,

yabbaguy

,

millar13

,

Shattered Viewpoint

) 10 (L-0)

millar13 (Mr.Sandman,

chihuahua0

) 2 (L-8)

Robocopter87

(

Xite9

) 1 (L-9)

Xite91

(

Switz

,

Pittbunny

,

Muthaa

, ZeroFang) 4 (L-6)

Not voting:

Enigma

, Wacka Alpaca

I'm still hestitant to believe that SV was the only scum on that wagon, seeing as how it was the optimal D1 scum play. Then again, there's WIFOM in that.

Enigma

(

DavidParker

) 1 L-8

Shattered Viewpoint

(

Switz

, Mr.Sandman, smashbro_of_the_SSS,

Zajnet

, Sanxion,

mallowgeno

,

don_johnson

,

millar13

,

Shattered Viewpoint

) 9 L-0

Zajnet

(

yabbaguy

) 1 L-8

Not voting:

Enigma

,

Muthaa

,

Robocopter87

, Wacka Alpaca, ZeroFang

This VC presents a decent argument against a ZF-Miyu team. I really can't imagine scum self-hammering when two buddies are leaning towards a bus. It robs them of much-needed townie credit for no good reason. However, SV has seen me catch scum using this tell before, so it's possible he saw it as an opportune moment to pull the wool over my eyes. I guess time will tell...

mallowgeno

(

Zajnet

,

Robocopter87

,

don_johnson

) 3 L-5

Muthaa

(

mallowgeno

) 1 L-7

Robocopter87

(Mr.Sandman) 1 L-7
Wacka Alpaca (Sanxion,

Muthaa

) 2 L-6

Zajnet

(

Switz

, ZeroFang) 2 L-6

Not voting:

DavidParker

,

Enigma

,

millar13

, smashbro_of_the_SSS, Wacka Alpaca

Here's the another instance where the scum are showing no interest in lynching the mallow/Xite slot. IMO, this suggests that SV's earlier lack of a hammer was buddying and that the slot was being groomed as a late-game mislynch. We should look for scum defending Xite D1, and linking him to each other in the mid game.

mallowgeno

(

Zajnet

) 1 L-7
Wacka Alpaca (Sanxion,

Muthaa

) 2 L-6

Zajnet

(

Switz

, ZeroFang, smashbro_of_the_SSS,

don_johnson

,

Robocopter87

, Mr.Sandman,

DavidParker

,

mallowgeno

) 8 L-0

Not voting:

Enigma

,

millar13

, Wacka Alpaca

All townie milsynch on D3? Methinks no. A Miyu-Sanx team looks unlikely.

Robocopter87

(

mallowgeno

, Sanxion, Miyu) 3 L-4
Miyu (

Robocopter87

,

Muthaa

,

DavidParker

,

Enigma

,

drmyshottyizsik

) 5 L-2

Not voting: Mr.Sandman, RedCoyote,

Switz

, ZeroFang

This is my favorite VC ever. Miyu hovers @ an all town L-2 with 3/5 of the unconfirmed not voting. Note that she is conveniently suspicious of the only other guy with a prayer of getting lynched. I like this VC so much that I reread several pages surrounding the situation and will be discussing it in a separate post in the near future.

mallowgeno

(

Enigma

) 1 L-6
Miyu (

Muthaa

, Mr.Sandman) 2 L-5

Robocopter87

(

mallowgeno

, Sanxion, Miyu, RedCoyote, ZeroFang,

drmyshottyizsik

,

DavidParker

) 7 L-0

Sanxion (

Robocopter87

) 1 L-6

Not voting:

Switz

This was a very shady lynch. At least one scum has to be on it and my guess is both are.

DavidParker

(Miyu) 2 L-3

mallowgeno

(

Ythill

, RedCoyote) 2 L-3
Miyu (

Muthaa

,

DavidParker

,

mallowgeno

) 3 L-2

Muthaa

(ZeroFang) 1 L-4

Not voting: Mr.Sandman, Sanxion

So I've got this theory I can't shake where the scum were two men down and about to lose a third when Wacka got pissed and replaced out. Then Miyu came in and wowed you all with her mad skillz and her "lurking is scummy" (post post post) "bandwagoning is scummy" (park park park) strategy and you lynched Robo. Then, D5 started and three smart townies were like, "No, really, we're going to lynch her today." Then I came in and fudged it all up but... look who followed me...

Red hadn't even finished reading the game. He had no reason to trust me. I've got obv on my avatar FFS, did he think I wouldn't seem pro-town as scum? Often, when I start swinging my weight around, the scum like to hide in my shadow and help me to be wrong.

DavidParker

(Miyu) 2 L-3

mallowgeno

(RedCoyote,

DavidParker

,

Ythill

) 3 L-2
Miyu (

Muthaa

,

mallowgeno

) 2 L-3

Muthaa

(ZeroFang) 1 L-4

Not voting: Mr.Sandman, Sanxion

I got off for a minute and then got back on, but pressure was being directed away from the all-town wagon and Red was happy staying put.

DavidParker

(Miyu,

Ythill

) 2 L-3

mallowgeno

(RedCoyote,

DavidParker

) 2 L-3
Miyu (

hitogoroshi

,

mallowgeno

, Mr.Sandman) 3 L-2

Muthaa

(ZeroFang) 1 L-4

Not voting: Sanxion

Note that Sand didn't join the Miyu wagon until pressure faded, this in spite of the fact that he'd been attacking her hard during the previous day and his only other suspect had been revealed town. My vote was a feeler. Though I'd found the false caveat, I still found Miyu suspicious and I wanted to see what would happen if I backed her up for a minute. At fisrt glance, it seemed like nothing had...

DavidParker

(Miyu) 1 L-4

mallowgeno

(

DavidParker

,

Ythill

,

hitogoroshi

, RedCoyote) 4 L-1
Miyu (

mallowgeno

, Mr. Sandman) 2 L-3
Muthaa (

ZeroFang

) 1 L-4

Not voting: Sanxion

...until I looked at this VC and wondered how Red got onto the end of the mallow wagon. It was him briefly following me onto DP only to slide right back onto the more popular wagon behind me. Again, why the trust? He didn't question me once and I was wrong on both counts. Plus, I could have been scum from his PoV. And why does it seem like he's willing to lynch anyone but Miyu?

DavidParker

(Miyu, Mr. Sandman) 2 L-3

mallowgeno

(

DavidParker

,

Ythill

,

hitogoroshi

, RedCoyote) 4 L-1
Miyu (

mallowgeno

) 1 L-4

Muthaa

(ZeroFang) 1 L-4

Not voting: Sanxion

This was a very strange vote from Sandman. Remember, he'd been tunelled on Miyu-as-scum for a long time. Then, inexplicably, he joined her momentarily on David. I'd really like an explanation.

DavidParker

(Miyu) 1 L-2

mallowgeno

(

DavidParker

,

Ythill

,

hitogoroshi

, RedCoyote, Mr. Sandman) 5 L-0

Miyu (

mallowgeno

) 1 L-4
Muthaa (ZeroFang) 1 L-4

Not voting: Sanxion

As counterpoint to my "how did miyu/ZF-scum feel when I replaced in with their nooses already tied" this VC suggests that they laughed pretty hard if they are the scumteam. Chances are, this mislynch did not happen without scum assistance. However, if it did, I can't wait to read the QT from N5.

[hitogoroshi]

I don't have much time, but I'm confirming that Ythill and I are indeed lovers and ready to rock the house.

I'm in Stars Aligned III which is a bugger of a game so I'll be posting less analysis than Ythill but his scumdar is the more calibrated one anyway so I don't mind playing supporting actor.

Listing Zerofang as a scum suspect was mostly just because I haven't ISO'd him and I'm seeing if I can get people to agree with me when they don't have a case, on the hopes that I'll write it for them.

I think that the only rational explanation for killing DP over me or Ythill is that the scum bought the Mega Shark v. Giant Octopus narrative that I tried to sell - that Ythill and I would be dueling it out today in an epic clash of the titans. As such, Zerofang, I'm extremely keen to hear your case on Ythill, because I kinda get the feeling that you're scum waiting for me to post the big epic case on Ythill I've been 'working on' and that you don't really have one of your own. Feel free to prove me wrong.

I'll be back with more soon.

[Miyu]

And my patience is wearing thin.

This could be the base of a comedy tour from now until the world implodes.

I continue to laugh at your implications, especially the one which involves me OMGUSing you. Which.. I never do. You seem to have this pre-conceived notion of how people are in mafia games, that they will do this this this and that - then try to fit them into that box; regardless of what reality is.

If you and Hito are lovers, it is rather comical - because you both shared the same ridiculous idea that bandwagoning is not a scumtell. Which it is. Otherwise, exactly what are you basing your vote analysis on?