Open 226: Big Love - Game over! Town wins!

[hitogoroshi]

If you and Hito are lovers, it is rather comical - because you both shared the same ridiculous idea that bandwagoning is not a scumtell. Which it is. Otherwise, exactly what are you basing your vote analysis on?

Are you reading Ythill's posts? This is a serious question. His reasoning is very clearly stated. I can't possibly imagine why you think that vote analysis is contingent on bandwagoning being a scumtell if you've read any of what Ythill posted. Bandwagoning is what ALLOWS this analysis. It's helping the town tremendously. Having lots of wagons is wonderful and amazing for town, because each wagon is a decision point where we can analyze motivations, and refine our conclusions as more role information comes in. I doubt you'll be able to find a single experienced mafia player who will say bandwagoning is a scumtell - though I welcome you to try in MD when this game is over.

Ythill, I agree a lot with your views on mod iso 48 and I can't wait to read the rest of your thoughts on it.

Also, you clearly like vote count analysis. I like associative tells myself. Give me your scumteam pick you like the most right this second, Ythill, and I'll throw down an associative analysis on it.

[Ythill]

For conversation's sake, I'm not sure if VC analysis is my favorite but it's something I've adopted recently and that I've found to be accurate more often than not. I do it first because it gives me a good overview of the game to work from. I like associative tells too, and I welcome any effort you want to put in. I think we're going to be a great team.

Right now I'm torn between Miyu-Red and Miyu-ZF, although I'm trying to keep an open mind. I'll be posting more analysis in a little while.

@Miyu:

It's going to be hard to laugh with a noose around your neck. Just sayin.

[Ythill]

Robocopter87

(

mallowgeno

, Sanxion, Miyu) 3 L-4
Miyu (

Robocopter87

,

Muthaa

,

DavidParker

,

Enigma

,

drmyshottyizsik

) 5 L-2

Not voting: Mr.Sandman, RedCoyote,

Switz

, ZeroFang

If Miyu is town, both scum have to be among Sanx, Sandman, Red and ZF. Let’s look at their reactions to Wacka’s exit, Miyu’s entrance, shotty’s L-2 vote, and Enigma’s switch to mallow after Miyu did an iso on her predecessor.

Wacka’s Exit

• Sanx: Pushed suspicion on Robo, with a slip suggesting he knows Robo is town (#927). Continued pushing Robo (#931).
  
• Sandman: Stated that Wacka and Robo were scummy but only attacked Wacka (#924). Attacked ZF for loaded questions (#929).
  
• Red: Was chatty while replacing in. Pooh-poohed the cases on both Wacka and Robo while calling mallow scummy (#943).
  
• ZF: Said that Robo vs. Wacka is as pointless as Robo vs. a dead townie (#921). After the Wacka vs. Robo dilemma was firm, he solidified it with loaded questions (#928). Answered one of his own questions in response to Sand’s jab, stating that he wants to lynch both Robo and Wacka; dodged the other two (#950-951).
  
• If Miyu is town: Sanx's stance as pressure was building against Miyu suggests that he is only scum if a buddy was already attacking her, meaning that Sanx-Sandman is the only sensible option. Sandman-ZF scumteam looks unlikely because the former's attack and the latter's response both look legitimate. In this section, Red looks town and ZF looks scummiest.
  
  
• If Miyu is scum: Sandman's stance gives him lots of towncred. Sanx looks bad, as does ZF. Red is null.

Miyu’s entrance

• Sanx: Made no posts.
  
• Sandman: Answered some questions from ZF and Miyu; pushed suspicion on Robo (#994).
  
• Red: Was impressed that Miyu read the whole thread; called four people scum across two points, noting Miyu as scummy in both but finding ZF scummiest (#984).
  
• ZF: Made a happy fluff post about replacements, then jabbed David. (#959, 965). Played instigator between two town players (#976). Answered Miyu’s questions (#979). Defended himself from Red (#995). Pointed out shotty’s mistaken vote for Wacka (#979).
  
• If Miyu is town:

  Sandman could have been backing off due to her obvious skill level but he'd set up suspicion on her and I don't see scum refraining from a vote here. Red might have been buddying and the exchange between he and ZF could have been distancing. ZF seemed to be struggling to find a new subject. Why not just get on the Miyu wagon since he'd already leaned that way pretty hard?
  
  
• If Miyu is scum: Sandman gets tarnished a bit, but not nearly as much as Red and ZF. The former has a two day record of wanting to lynch anyone but Miyu. The latter was jumping at shadows and spaz-posting while ignoring a large, growing wagon on someone he'd already called scum.

Shotty’s L-2 vote

• Sanx: Agreed that Xite could be scummy for the same reasons Miyu is but wants to hear from Miyu before voting because Xite is bad too (#1011).
  
• Sandman: Kept the pressure on Miyu (#1015).
  
• Red: Chainsawed a claimed lover for Miyu (#1012).
  
• ZF: Held Miyu accountable for Wacka’s actions even though it’s “unfortunate,” pointed out similarities to the Xite/Mallow situation (#1008). Changed the subject to Xite/mallow via a mild chainsaw on David (#1010). Responded directly to Red without mentioning that he just voted a claimed lover (#1013). Jabbed at Sanx (#1020).
  
• If Miyu is town: Again, Sanx doesn't make much sense as scum unless Sand is his buddy. Sandman-scum would have dropped the L-1 vote which he was set up to do. Red's chainsaw doesn't make sense at all, unless he was banking on building a connection between himself and Miyu, which I doubt. ZF's post suggests that he could be scum subtly pushing Miyu-town toward the lynch, but again, why no vote? A minor tell suggests a ZF-Red team.
  
  
• If Miyu is scum: everyone but Sandman looks bad. I can't decide whether Red or ZF is scummier.

Enigma’s switch to mallow

• Sanx: Gave an arbitrary “higher than 80%” scumread on Robo (#1040). Pursued the fight with Robo that would eventually lead to his lynch (#1049).
  
• Sandman: Defended mallow and voted Miyu, who was the more popular of his suspects at the time (#1034). Briefly defended himself vs. Miyu (#1046).
  
• Red: Voted mallow, based on cheerleading dead town (#1025). Immediately changed his vote to Robo, ostensibly due to his reread (#1041).
  
• ZF: Chainsawed Mutha on Miyu’s behalf (#1024). Briefly defended himself vs. Muthaa (#1038).
  
• If Miyu is town: There was no reason for Sanx-scum to push Robo so hard. Sandman could have been posturing. Red-scum's play would be non-sensical. ZF is unlikely scum for that chainsaw.
  
  
• If Miyu is scum: Sanx looks dirty, but maybe a little too overt to be a Miyu scumbuddy. Sandman looks clean as a whistle. Both Red and ZF continue to compete for the Miyu's-most-likely-buddy award.

Conclusions

• Sanx: Tunelled on Robo, pausing to consider and dismiss Miyu at the height of her wagon before slipping back into his Robo-hate. His play seems obv-town to me. If he is scum and she is town, his play only makes sense if a buddy was pushing the mislynch and therefore his buddy must be Sandman. If she is scum, his actions seem too blatant to be her buddy, but it's possible. Sanx is likely town.
  
• Sandman: Was firm in pushing the Robo-Wacka dilemma with a preference for Wacka, backed off momentarily to give Miyu the benefit of the doubt and then returned to pushing Miyu. If he is scum and she is town, I don't understand why he didn't put her @ L-1 seeing as how he was perfectly set up to do so. If she is scum, I think he would have followed through on the switch to Robo. Sandman is likely town.
  
• Red: Was determined to be an individual and seemed disinterested in the Wacka/Miyu wagon. Plus he chainsawed on Miyu's behalf. I don't think he is scum if Miyu is town. If she is scum, the connections in his play make sense as a buddy but his overall play seems less opportunistic than I'd expect in such a dire situation. Red could be scum with Miyu.
  
• ZF: Flip-flopped his read on Wacka/Miyu and seemed to want it both ways. His post-per-page average peaked and yet he seemed to be torn between a lot of different subjects, which suggests he was picking through all of the details and yet he missed an important one. He listed Miyu as one of his top two suspects but never voted her. If he is scum and Miyu is town, I don't understand why he didn't place the L-1 vote, especially with Sandman likley to hammer, and the chainsaws don't make sense. If Miyu is scum, ZF is her most likley buddy based on this analysis. ZF is probably scum with Miyu.
  
• Miyu: There is no clear scumteam between the four unconfirmed players who are not Miyu. There are solid reasons why each one of them is not scum unless she is. Furthermore, there are links suggesting that she is scum with at least one of them. All four players posted while she was hovering at L-2 and being pressured by five townies. Two of them (Sand-ZF) were set up for suspicion against her; unless those two are a scumteam, the other had a hammer likely to follow an L-2 vote. While Sanx
  may
  have been scum stuck in a stance, the only other player who didn't suspect Miyu was Red, who had recently replaced in with a clean slate, and could have easily placed that L-2 vote with
  two
  likely hammers waiting. Tl;dr: Miyu is scum.

[Ythill]

@Miyu:

Please address the above post. Specifically, I would like you to determine the two-man scumteam who was most likley to not lynch you in that situation and explain why. Transparently please.

I'm going to pause here and let people catch up. I have one more piece of homework saved that I will probably post tonight.

[Ythill]

One more thing. For reasons that I cannot discuss due to the ongoing games rule, I am no longer required to keep SV's alt status secret. SV == Nobody Special. Not sure if that will help anyone with meta reads, but it has been helping me.

[ZeroFang]

Claim: lover with hito.

@Ythill:

How about you

not

be a narcissistic asshole for once in your life.

I tried that once. It sucked.

Suddenly these posts make sense.

I'm making a for-cereal post but I wanted to post that first. I'm not against homosexuals.

[hitogoroshi]

I want to wait for Zero's Ythill case, so I'll start looking at Miyu/RC.

Wacka/Miyu's interactions with Smashbro/Redcoyote:

This isn't actually anything to do with RC, but "vote: townie FoS:scumbuddy" is a fairly common occurrence and here Wacka votes for Xite and FoS's chi.

Wacka says absolutely nothing about Smashbro. Complete silence is the interaction I find most scummy, though both Smashbro and Wacka said so little that this isn't as bad as usual.

We switch now to Miyu.

From day one, out of the remaining players..
mallowXite/Millardrmy I lean ranti-town, villagers.
Robo, Mr.Sandman, Sanxion are scummy.
Muthaa lurker
Every one else, no read.

No read on smashbro, not even to call him a lurker (which he certainty was).

She does give a "smash lurks" in her next post.

Her next mention of the slot comes here:

I feel ya Red. It wasn't so bad, until I got to the third Day and all of the vote switching... after Zajnet had been lynched. You can bring a horse to water, but... -shrug-

Which was a response to Red's "God love you, Miyu. I don't know how you could stomach this game." Hey red, why single out Miyu in particular?

The next silence is longer, twenty-odd posts. Her next mention of Red is this:

Red. I don't believe any lovers have outed themselves toDay.

Which is fairly null - town would say it to anyone, scum would want their buddy to know.

Her penultimate mention of Red in ISO 44:

I find you suggesting things to Red to read and do; rather hilarious mallow. Considering that you don't say much.. at all.

This immediately grabs me by the lapels and shakes me yelling "RC and Miyu are scumbuddies!" Hard to explain exactly why - it seems like she's crowing over the mislynch she's grooming (Ythill's post was the first time I heard that expression used in mafia, and damn, I like it!) and subconsciously celebrating with her scumbuddy. Would appreciate Ythill's input because this isn't a formal tell but simply what my gut tells me.

Her final post regarding Red:

Red, I've had my vote on David since almost the beginning of toDay. What are your thoughts?

Her scattershot questioning has missed Redcoyote for the entire game, and suddenly this. Not sure what to make of it.

Analysis from this side:

As I said before, complete silence is the interaction I find most scummy. That doesn't mean too much in the case of Wacka and Smashbro, because they both were lurking to high heaven. But when it's Miyu and Red, it gets way way uglier. ISO Miyu - she's throwing questions around left and right but omitting smashbro/red from every scumlist and question (with the exception of her last post). Miyu and Red as scumbuddies seem pretty damn plausible from this end.

Analysis of the pair from Red's side will probably have to wait until tomorrow, sorry.

[ZeroFang]

Red hadn't even finished reading the game. He had no reason to trust me. I've got obv on my avatar FFS, did he think I wouldn't seem pro-town as scum? Often, when I start swinging my weight around, the scum like to hide in my shadow and help me to be wrong.

I want to say something completely unrelated to the game at hand, but still important. All of this "weight" you speak of is fat, not muscle. It's not as if you just came in here and swept the scum up, and no, I'm not WIFOMing you. I'm telling you. You've suspected pretty much every single person here and claimed they were scum at one point or another. That doesn't help us. Your massive posts only look like they're full of content, but in reality it's an illusion to make your posts appear solid. It's a tactic, yes, but you can't rely on that, and it doesn't make you obv-town at all. It just makes your ISO hard to read.

With you being both confirmed town and somewhat of a legend here, I'm unimpressed.

[RedCoyote]

@Red

: You confuse me. From some angles, you look obv-scummy. From others, you look spotless. One thing I didn't like was the way you followed me onto a townie yesterday. I'm not infallible. If you're town, we need your brain. I'm watching you closely.

Well, so far, at least my judgment to trust you and hito as town has worked out, but that's about the only things I've been right about yet. This makes it easy from my perspective. I've seen a few sketchy things that I've pointed out about Sandman, but in general I think he's giving an honest effort in this game. I know Miyu is, although I have no idea if that necessarily would give her a town alignment. I'm betting that it does though. I have a unique meta of Miyu, having stolen her as a replacement for my most recent game based solely on the impression I got of her this game. She replaced into it long after it started and approached the game in a very similar fashion. She was a town role.

Despite giving this opinion from a bias standpoint, I think SSSS was, without a doubt, one of the most townie players in the beginning of this game. In a game rife with nonsense and irrelevancy, most of his posts were aggressive, clear, and on topic. Even though I replaced in with a chip on my shoulder, I still feel as though I've done enough to warrant a thumbs up for this game. I've never been very fond of ZF or Snaxion, addressed them both at different points since my replacing in, as well as Sandman and Miyu.

In other words, I'm comfortable from where I'm sitting, and I feel confident that enough townies will agree with me.

Red hadn't even finished reading the game. He had no reason to trust me. I've got obv on my avatar FFS, did he think I wouldn't seem pro-town as scum? Often, when I start swinging my weight around, the scum like to hide in my shadow and help me to be wrong.

I admitted early on that I stopped reading after about 15 pages. I skimmed the rest. I have no interest in finishing the read, nor do I think it's particularly prudent to do so. I "trusted" you in the sense that you reached the same conclusion I did based off of more evidence than I was willing to gather. I came into this game with a first suspect of Enigma and a second of mallow, and this was before you had even replaced in.

In regards to Wacka replacing out, well, that's very interesting and all, but it's also very subjective. I don't need to tell you of the possible perils of placing your vote on the basis of players replacing out. It's an often arbitrary measure of anything, and, frankly, I don't get the same impression. If anything, Wacka's commitment to the game seemed genuine. I don't think he was actively trying to mislead the town, and I don't think him replacing out has anything to do with his alignment. If it did, I'd favor townie frustration. Moreover, I think Wacka's replacing out was blown out of proportion by the likes of Sandman and ZF, although I think Sandman was more honest about his misgivings.

...until I looked at this VC and wondered how Red got onto the end of the mallow wagon. It was him briefly following me onto DP only to slide right back onto the more popular wagon behind me. Again, why the trust?

This had more to do with Miyu than it had to do with you. Given that the mallow wagon wasn't moving, and that I thought DP's wagon might, I briefly changed lanes, only to be brought back by hito's argument against Xite.

Tunelled on Robo, pausing to consider and dismiss Miyu at the height of her wagon before slipping back into his Robo-hate. His play seems obv-town to me.

I have trouble seeing Snaxion as obvious anything really, but, let's be real, it's hard for me to buy 10 townies in a row lining up to lynch scum on the first day. That's more than a statistical improbability; I've never seen something like that happen. I don't see how this doesn't carry more weight with everyone.

---

This isn't actually anything to do with RC, but "vote: townie FoS:scumbuddy" is a fairly common occurrence and here Wacka votes for Xite and FoS's chi.

I didn't notice that. I hadn't gone back to look at this post since the mallow flip. That's actually a pretty decent point against Miyu, hito.

Hey red, why single out Miyu in particular?

Because me, her, and docshotty were the replacements at the time, and we were all three attempting to reread the game at around the same time.

[Ythill]

All of this "weight" you speak of is fat, not muscle.

Actually, it's mostly balls. I really don't care what you think of me, Zero. Just stay on this side of the modkill line if you're town please.

In case anyone is mistaking Zero's misread for my actual point, I will reiterate... IME, scum like to follow me when I am town and wrong. This statement is not based on an inflated self-image but, rather, on a long history of scum doing just that. Feel free to skim my meta if you like.

Her penultimate mention of Red in ISO 44:

I find you suggesting things to Red to read and do; rather hilarious mallow. Considering that you don't say much.. at all.

This immediately grabs me by the lapels and shakes me yelling "RC and Miyu are scumbuddies!" Hard to explain exactly why - it seems like she's crowing over the mislynch she's grooming (Ythill's post was the first time I heard that expression used in mafia, and damn, I like it!) and subconsciously celebrating with her scumbuddy. Would appreciate Ythill's input because this isn't a formal tell but simply what my gut tells me.

Was mallow the obvious mislynch at that point? IME, scum will often link buddies to suspicious townies as a contingiency in case one of the involved scum dies. However, I don't see the point in doing it if mallow was already in the noose.

The rest of your analysis will be very helpful, though I think it will be moreso after we have a few other samples to compare it to.

I have a unique meta of Miyu, having stolen her as a replacement for my most recent game based solely on the impression I got of her this game. She replaced into it long after it started and approached the game in a very similar fashion. She was a town role.

No matter what her alignment, Miyu's strategy demonstrates that she understands the meta-game. I wouldn't expect anything less.

I don't need to tell you of the possible perils of placing your vote on the basis of players replacing out.

You're overlooking a lot. Three slips where he was casually overconfidant about town aligned players who were, in fact, town. His position on the otherwise all town-on-town L-1 Xite wagon. The double-bluff exit Sandman pointed out.

I am not overlooking the fact that you are defending the slot vehemently based on minutae, nor the fact that you are doing it very obviously. Please present your case for a ZF lynch.

@Miyu:

Does it seem like ZF is angry about me being confirmed town? Why were you hesitant to settle on two suspects before the lover claims?

[Ythill]

Okay... last piece of homework and I promise I'll slow it down a little.

While I was reading the context around mod iso #48 it seemed like ZF was posting more often than usual. I wanted to check if that was true, so I computed his post per page average for the whole game and compared it to that of the period in question. Following that train of thought, I split the game up into subjects based on the votecounts and then computed the ppp during each, for each of the unconfirmed slots. I've never tried this type of analysis, so I don't know how helpful it will be.

Things we need to keep in mind... There were some V/LAs: Sandman had computer issues a couple of times, Wacka had that vacation-then-uni fiasco, I think Sanx was out at least once too. Also, ppp can be forced down by flurries of posting from now dead or confirmed players. In examining these results, I think that peaks are more important than valleys, and more accurate measures of which topics players showed a particular interest in and/or exerted heavier influence over.

Note that potential post density increases as players leave the game. Rather than a straight line, a consistant poster's averages should curve upwards as the days pass. For reference, I plotted the mien, which is the number of posts per page divided by the number of living players, not accounting for modposts. It's the red line on the graphs.



Sanx got pretty Xited during that mess about the plan, then was happy to lynch Mallow. He's been a little lurky, but consistant about it. He looks townie to me.

Sandman had a peak in his average during the Zanjet quicklynch, but his differing levels of involvement in the Miyu dilemmas make sense based on reads he claimed to have at the time.



Smash was the lurkiest of the unconfirmed. His two flourishes coincided with chi's early wagon and his death. Combine it with the parked vote and it's way too strong for D1 town confidence. Red's average is at a nice smooth curve, null.

ZF has played a swingy game. He started at a mien average, showed interest in a chi lynch, then disappeared. He even taunted people about it when he came back to lynch chi. The SV lynch happened while he wasn't paying attention. Then he stepped up his game. During his peaks, two mislynches were engineered, and the focus on one very scummy player derailed. He dropped back after the Robo lynch and again when the spotlight grazed him.

I find the similarity of their input surrounding the D1 chi bus intriguing. Though the Miyu slot looks very scummy in other areas, Red and ZF look an awful lot like scum following their NZ plan.



Wacka might be considered consistant if one takes his V/LAs as honest scheduling issues. It's intriguing that he was more active on the scum-lynch days and wasn't very deeply involved in the mislynches. It could be a point in Miyu's favor, or it could be the effect of scum giving up. I think the most telling bit is Miyu's own play, which spiked sharply for defense, and then fell off once she was in the clear.

Again, this is experimental. I'd love to read other interpretations of the data, especially from hito.

[DizzyIzzyB13]

Since Sanxion hasn't posted, he's going to be replaced.

[Ythill]

*sigh*

[Miyu]

@ Hito. Get a clue okay. The fact that you are continually blatantly misrepresenting what I say is beyond offensive at this point. The other fact that you completely ignored my last statement in regards to this, is extremely laughable.

Ythill, since you apparently put so much weight on meta. Meta me. Either that or post your case against me. Now.

[hitogoroshi]

Either that or post your case against me. Now.

He did. He's posed multiple questions for you to answer, and he's posted quite a bit of good analysis, the majority of which implicates you as scum.

The questions addressed to you were on their own lines, starting with a bolded @Miyu. Are you not reading Ythill's posts, or are you deliberately not answering the questions?

Ythill: Honestly, the ppp analysis seems a little too special casey to be worth undue consideration.

RC side of the analysis will come maybe before I sleep, maybe not.

[Ythill]

@Miyu:

Didn't I just explain that I expect your meta-game to be null? I don't put a ton of weight on meta, except when the player is someone with a weak meta-game (in other words, not you). Could you answer the questions I asked you? Here they are again for your convenience...

@Miyu:

Please address

the above post

#1327. Specifically, I would like you to determine the two-man scumteam who was most likley to not lynch you in that situation and explain why. Transparently please.
...

@Miyu:

Does it seem like ZF is angry about me being confirmed town? Why were you hesitant to settle on two suspects before the lover claims?

Also, why do you sound more obstinate today? If hito has misinterpreted something, accusing him of misrep isn't going to clear it up. Remember... no grounds for OMGUS. As for my case on you, I think I've covered it pretty clearly. Did you have specific questions?

Ythill: Honestly, the ppp analysis seems a little too special casey to be worth undue consideration.

But... but... there's

pictures

.

Does it seem to you like ZF and Miyu are both in sour moods all of a sudden?

[RedCoyote]

Ugh, I had to go re-read my PM. Ythill had me convinced I was scum.

Seriously though, I really feel bad. Ythill is putting more effort into this game than I've ever seen anyone do in a game of mafia. I simply don't have that level of dedication.

You're overlooking a lot. Three slips where he was casually overconfidant about town aligned players who were, in fact, town. His position on the otherwise all town-on-town L-1 Xite wagon. The double-bluff exit Sandman pointed out.

Did you bring these up in a post? I'll look for this myself if you haven't, but if you or hito have already mentioned it then let me know.

Please present your case for a ZF lynch.

ZF was off of both scum lynches, and didn't even really make any worthwhile posts on the second day.

With that in mind... I'd have to point out four other players. Sanxion, millar, Muthaa, and mallow. All four of them are lurking/active lurking. I'm not so sure it'd be safe to policy lynch them all because it'd reduce our town by about ten guys, besides the fact that it would be generally bad play.

Despite consistantly whining about lurking (while contributing his fair share), there's a Sanx connection here in that Sanx is kind of buried in the mix of townies (a safe place to put a scumbuddy).

And... that's all he mentions about Sanx. He brings him up two or three more times, but they're basically exactly the same as this post. He whines about his lurking a little bit and drops it. Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

His voting in general has been kind of one-and-done, with the exception of the first and third days, he just votes and leaves it there the entire time. In the third day he only changed because a player claimed as a confirmed townie.

[Ythill]

Q: What color is the lipstick on my butt?
A: Red.

Did you bring these up in a post?

Yes and no. I quoted the three slips in my Wacka iso. His wagon position was apparent in the third VC (mod iso 18) covered in #1322. I don't know if I brought up the double-bluff, but you can read the contex for yourself in #910. Here's a quote of the line in question...

And Robo, don't screw this up for us

ZF being off the chi-bus is actually a point in his favor, IMO. And your case is kinda weaksauce, no offense. Please address mod iso 48. Why would a ZF-Sanx scumteam refrain from placing the L-2 vote on Miyu, especially with Sandman seeming like he'd be willing to hammer?

[Ythill]

*more crickets*

[RedCoyote]

Well, hm, those are some pretty good points, Ythill. Especially on how the scum didn't just hammer Xite on the first day.

Sanx is probably town then. Wacka's language doesn't seem particularly townie when put in that context.

[hitogoroshi]

RedCoyote's/Smashbro's interactions with Wacka/Miyu:

Smashbro said literally nothing about Wacka. Not as scummy as it could be because both of them lurked their asses off.

RedCoyote first mentions Wacka in ISO 2:

If the only case against Wacka is AtE, then I am not impressed.

This apparently seems to be referring to his "Robo, don't screw this up for us. " AtE seems like a ludicrous way to define that, and I get the vibe that RC came to the conclusion to defend Wacka FIRST and then found a buzzword for it.

ISO 3 has the already mentioned, "God love you, Miyu. I don't know how you could stomach this game. I read through the first ten pages, but I don't think I'm going to be able to do it. There is just far too much nonsense going on. ."

It

also

has this bit:

A few things stick out to me almost immediately:

1) Enigma and Miyu (Wacka Alpaca) have curiously not had a vote down before any of the three lynches occured.
2) Enigma, Miyu (Wacka Alpaca), ZeroFang, and Muthaa were not on either of the scum wagons during D1 & D2, yet ZeroFang was on the town lynch wagon during D3.
3) Me (SSSS), Sanxion, and the doc (millar) were on both of the scum wagons during D1 & D2.

Based on this primitive, excessively general overview of the game, ZeroFang is not looking too hot. Enigma, have you been scared to throw a vote down this game?

It looks scummy at first glance, but seeing as he couldn't ask Miyu if she was scared to throw down a vote (she voted Robo after her catch-up) it's pretty much a null wash.

ISO 5 is more explicit defense of Miyu:

I'm very unimpressed with this mentality of, "Oh, Miyu, I'm just going to ignore everything you said in favor of Wacka's ragequitting". It's nonsense. Since when is replacing out a scumtell? You can take that to the Mafia Discussion forum (and it is taken there quite often actually) and ask them about how people replacing out have a tendency to be a certain alignment. Virtually everyone agrees that it is completely arbitrary.

Vote: Enigma for not having any discernible presence in this game, and blindly pushing a case based on,

Whether you like it or not, you are going to need to dig yourself out of the hole he dug you into.

What about what Miyu has contributed so far?

ISO 8 is more explicit defense of Miyu:

Wacka was way more involved in this game than Robo. I've been looking over Wacka's posts in this game... and I just do not get how people see scum here. Why? If anything Wacka was one of the more townie players. Robo has a lot of contentless posts, and he's constantly having to catch up. He's jumping on bandwagons and not really giving his own, unique take on things. This Snaxion move is somewhat unique, but I'm sure it's partly because Robo's hand is being forced.

Seriously though, I'm reading over post's 640, 579, 557... and these all look townie to me.

His next major mention of Miyu is in ISO 26:

Well, so far, at least my judgment to trust you and hito as town has worked out, but that's about the only things I've been right about yet. This makes it easy from my perspective. I've seen a few sketchy things that I've pointed out about Sandman, but in general I think he's giving an honest effort in this game. I know Miyu is, although I have no idea if that necessarily would give her a town alignment. I'm betting that it does though. I have a unique meta of Miyu, having stolen her as a replacement for my most recent game based solely on the impression I got of her this game. She replaced into it long after it started and approached the game in a very similar fashion. She was a town role.

Despite giving this opinion from a bias standpoint, I think SSSS was, without a doubt, one of the most townie players in the beginning of this game. In a game rife with nonsense and irrelevancy, most of his posts were aggressive, clear, and on topic. Even though I replaced in with a chip on my shoulder, I still feel as though I've done enough to warrant a thumbs up for this game. I've never been very fond of ZF or Snaxion, addressed them both at different points since my replacing in, as well as Sandman and Miyu.

The last sentence seems to be suggesting that he's been applying pressure / suspicion to Miyu, which is

most definitely

not the case.

Overall, I have absolutely zero problem believing that RC and Miyu are scumbuddies. I really, really want ZF, sandman, and sanx's replacement to get in here.

I'll probably do RC <---> ZF next, unless you have a different plan, Ythill.

Also, just thought of something.

Ythill

, what do you think of the night kill? It seems to me that if the scum killed DP, they probably had to think he was a lover. If you had to pick DP's loverbuddy, who would it be? (I ask because if it's not one of us, that person gets some major townpoints.)

[hitogoroshi]

EBWOP: Actually, it's Miyu <---> ZF I'll be doing next. I think RC and ZF is actually one of the less likely scumpairs.

[Miyu]

did someone edit a post? Because #1327 did not look like it currently does when I made my last post. It was a wall of a quote quoting other things.

[Miyu]

Hito, please learn to read. A case does not equate to being asked questions.
I'll respond to everything once I get home. Though I do find it rather hysterical that you completely ignore me calling you out hito, but then turn around and try to bash me for not answering something. I ignored them for a reason, because I wanted ythill to post his case; rather than ask questions.

[Ythill]

AtE seems like a ludicrous way to define that, and I get the vibe that RC came to the conclusion to defend Wacka FIRST and then found a buzzword for it.

It fits with RC's misread/misrep that Wacka's exit was the only point against him. Red glazed over the double-bluff the same way he glazed over the other points against the slot. However, it seems really heavy-handed for treatment of an actual buddy. Does he seem that clumsy to you?

Red's leaning now, and I thnk that's meaningful concerning Miyu if he is scum.

Also, just thought of something. Ythill, what do you think of the night kill? It seems to me that if the scum killed DP, they probably had to think he was a lover. If you had to pick DP's loverbuddy, who would it be?

After a quick skim, I'd say you or Red. I'm not convinced scum wanted to kill lovers last night though. The paranoid side of me is saying that the DP kill makes the most sense as a framing mechanism for a Miyu-town lynch. NK speculation...

did someone edit a post? Because #1327 did not look like it currently does when I made my last post. It was a wall of a quote quoting other things.

Nah, that was my VC analysis in #1322. I made three big posts catching up with the stuff I was doing in private while we waited for people's suspicions.

Why bother to call hito out? He's town, he's correct, and you're the one who's not reading. There's an ongoing conversation about your alignment, several key points have been repeated, and several in-depth analyses have been conducted transparently. You are free to chime in at any time if you'd like to be involved. In fact, I asked you questions in an effort to involve you, but you seem determined to stand back and take jabs at confirmed townies.