/Invitational 11: Pick your Poison 5 (Game Over)

[Fate]

SPYREX WHO TURNS IN THEIR GODDAMN BADGE NOW

[mith]

That whole sequence from 1938 to 1944 is icky. SpyreX looks worst, but I don't like that Fate goaded him into switching. On the other hand, what does scumFate gain from going so hard after scumooba? Maybe he thought HH would go down anyway (which is what happened, but it didn't seem likely until the very end; if HH had voted ooba instead of throwing himself on his sword in an endgame maybe we lynch ooba and go some way toward clearing HH).

I need to review iamausername. And the end of day 3 again; we had two scum in the mix and came close to lynching Plumegranate instead.

Gut ranking of possible scumgroups:

PokerFace-SpyreX
PokerFace-iamausername
SpyreX-Fate
PokerFace-Fate
SpyreX-iamausername
iamausername-Fate

[Fate]

hehehe

HAHAHAHHA

HEEHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

[Fate]

"I goaded him"

CTD, a DEAD TOWNIE, goaded him.

Course you can't suspect him now, can you mith, but trying to make me look scummy for it is just "lulz"

Also I hope HH learned his lesson:

if HH had voted ooba instead of throwing himself on his sword in an endgame

Now that we know I immediately came in and nailed oobascum, but the scum have decided not to kill me, I'm fairly certain SpyreX is nigh 100% cleared.

Which leaves...
PokerFace
Iam
Plumegranite
Mith

In order.

Hmmmm Iam scum again? *flashbacks* IAM SCUM AGAIN???????

[mith]

CTD absolutely goaded him; both of you. Of course, CTD presented a lengthy reread with a case implicating VV/HH - it's clear what his motive was in goading you two.

What's not clear is why you would rail all day how ooba is obvscum, how ooba is scum regardless of HH's alignment but, oh btw, VV/HH is town (as late as posts 1927/1928), and then turn around and suggest you and SpyreX switch to HH "JUST FOR KICKS?". If you're town, anyway. Pretty obvious why you would do that as scum.

(I also can't read post 1943 without imagining Fate cackling to himself in the middle of it.)

[Fate]

I begged and BEGGGGGGGED for a goddman Ooba hammer yesterday, it never came.

He was at L-2, HH was at L-1. SO WHAT THE FUCK WHY NOT?

The weird thing was SpyreX not seeing this without provocation and going "YES TIME TO DIEEEEEEEE VVVVVVVVVV" which makes me think he thought it would be scummy to switch from ooba to hammering a townie, (without proper authorization first). I'm wondering why he hasn't posted yet today as well.

SPYREX? COULD YOU BE?

[Fate]

Its probably about time to do one of those VC analysis things

[Fate]

I'll break with tradition and I won't put myself in green, so that you can continue with the analysis after I'm dead, just "quote" cut-and-paste in Notepad and search and replace to change the colors.

BOLDED FOR EXTRA LULZ. THANKS DGB >_>

Hoopla

(8) -- Papa Zito,

Amished

, mith,

ekiM, VasudeVa,

Elmo

, Plumegranate, SpyreX
VasudeVa (3) --

populartajo

,

ooba

,

Herodotus

zoraster

(2) -- DrippingGoofball,

Kmd4390

Papa Zito (2) --

Zorblag, Rhinox

Herodotus

(1) --

Hoopla

Kmd4390

(1) -- Ellibereth
DrippingGoofball (1) --

zoraster

One scum in (20% chance, 2 points):
Papa Zito, mith, ekiM, VasudeVa, Plumegranate, SpyreX

Hoopla

(7) -- Papa Zito,

Amished

, mith,

ekiM, VasudeVa,

Elmo

, Plumegranate
VasudeVa (5) --

populartajo

,

Herodotus

,

Seraphim,

SpyreX,

DrippingGoofball

zoraster

(2) --

Kmd4390

,

ooba

Papa Zito (2) --

Zorblag, Rhinox

Herodotus

(1) --

Hoopla

Kmd4390

(1) -- Ellibereth
DrippingGoofball (1) --

zoraster

One scum in (33% chance, 3 points):
Seraphim, SpyreX, DrippingGoofball

Hoopla

(5) -- Papa Zito,

Amished

, mith, Plumegranate,

Elmo

VasudeVa (4) --

populartajo

,

Herodotus

, Seraphim, SpyreX

zoraster

(5) --

Kmd4390

, ooba

,

ekiM,

DrippingGoofball,

VasudeVa

Papa Zito (2) --

Zorblag, Rhinox

Herodotus

(1) --

Hoopla

Kmd4390

(1) -- Ellibereth
DrippingGoofball (1) --

zoraster

one scum in (20% chance, 2 points):
ooba, ekiM, DrippingGoofball, VasudeVa

Hoopla

(11) -- Papa Zito,

Amished

, mith, Plumegranate,

Elmo

,

Seraphim,

DrippingGoofball

,

Rhinox,

Kmd4390

, SpyreX,

Hoopla

VasudeVa (1) --

populartajo

zoraster

(2) -- ooba, VasudeVa
Papa Zito (1) --

Zorblag

Kmd4390

(2) --

Herodotus

, ekiM
DrippingGoofball (1) --

zoraster

Two scums in (28% chance, 3 points)
Papa Zito, mith, Plumegranate, Seraphim, DrippingGoofball, Rhinox, SpyreX,

ekiM (1) -- Ellibereth
VasudeVa (3) -- Seraphim, ooba, SpyreX
ooba (6) -- Papa Zito,

VasudeVa, Plumegranate, Rhinox,

Kmd4390

, ekiM

DrippingGoofball (1) -- mith
Seraphim (1) -- SaintKerrigan

PAPA ZITO SCUM RIGHT HER

(when was ooba the leading wagon I don't remember that...)

VasudeVa (5) --

Seraphim,

ooba

, SpyreX,

AdumbroDeus,

Kmd4390

ooba (1) -- Papa Zito
DrippingGoofball (2) --

Elmo

,

zoraster

Seraphim (1) -- My Milked Eek

zoraster

(5) -- DrippingGoofball, ekiM, Plumegranate, Rhinox, mith
Papa Zito (1) --

Herodotus

mith (1) -- VasudeVa

VasudeVa (2) -- ooba, AdumbroDeus
ooba (1) -- iamausername
DrippingGoofball (1) --

zoraster

Seraphim (1) -- My Milked Eek

zoraster

(9) -- ekiM, Plumegranate,

Rhinox

, SpyreX,

DrippingGoofball,

Kmd4390

,

Elmo

, mith,

Herodotus

mith (1) --

VasudeVa

2 scums in (33% chance, 3 points)
ekiM, Plumegranate, Rhinox, SpyreX, DrippingGoofball, mith

[Fate]

HackerHuck (4) -- PokerFace, iamausername,

Seraphim, AdumbroDeus

AdumbroDeus (5) --

Fate, Kmd4390,

Plumegranate,

Ellibereth,

SpyreX

WHY SPYREX? WHYYYYYY?

HackerHuck (3) -- iamausername,

Seraphim, AdumbroDeus

AdumbroDeus (7) --

Kmd4390,

Plumegranate, SpyreX,

Fate

, mith, PokerFace,

ooba

PokerFace (1) -- HackerHuck

HE EVEN HAMMERED THE POOR FUCK JESUS WHY DID IT TAKE SO LONG TO CONVINCE OOBASCUM?

PokerFace (1) --

HackerHuck

HackerHuck (2) -- PokerFace, iamausername
ooba (4) --

Fate,

Plumegranate, SpyreX, mith

Which one of you hippies was bussing?

PokerFace (1) --

HackerHuck

HackerHuck (5) -- PokerFace, iamausername,

ooba

,

CrashTextDummie

, SpyreX
ooba (2) --

Fate,

Plumegranate

Plumsisters are deftown.

SO NOW WE HAVE:

Vote: Iamusername

Only reason I ruled him as town anyway was that catchup post, but since he's a goddamn SCUM PRRRRRRRR I can see him fakin it.

DIE DIE DIE

[Fate]

Yup just re-read that ooba wagon where he got 6 votes, Papa started it and town piled on, and he couldn't back off.

Should be some goodies there depending on how it disperesed

[Fate]

Spyrex didn't comment on the ooba wagon at all really.....


HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM??????????

(oh wait now I see it, he says VV wasn't bussing ooba or vice versa and he wants VV dead etc. etc....not good spy not good)

Kmd seemed to be the one to shift the wagon off ooba...

One of Poker+Iam/SpyreX?

Say it aint so baby...

[iamausername]

So here's the shit I was working on yesterday. Obviously partially irrelevant now, with HackerHuck and CTD (Seraph) flipping town, and I've yet to look at D5, but it's seems stupid to go to all that effort and then not post it.

---

DISCLAIMER: In this analysis I will be reading each players posts, assuming them to be scum, and asking the question "Does this post say anything about this player's scum partners?". So don't freak out about confirmation bias or anything. Confirmation bias is the whole point here. (Ironically, one of the main reasons I've started doing this is because I think it helps me break out of whatever confirmation bias I may be operating under.)

Post #381: Woof, where to start. OK, DGB's listed as town, likely that at least one of his other scum partners would be in the scum section. But probably one of those without any actual reason given.

Fate/ooba +

,

ooba/Palumporom +

,

ooba/Spyrex +

Post #406: Plum makes a fairly substantial attempt to get something going on ooba early on.

ooba/Palumporom -

Post #409: Vas adds his vote to the above.

Hacker/ooba -

Post #432: ekiM really nitpicks ooba's scumlist here, unlikely behaviour from a scum partner, I think.

Fate/ooba -

Post #441: Oh, right, ooba didsn't list mith as town even though mith fits the criteria he presented for putting people in his town list.

mith/ooba -

Post #446: mith calls out MME for lurking.

mith/PokerFace -

Post #545: SpyreX thinks MME's display of ignorance is a reason to write him off as town.

PokerFace/SpyreX +

Post #551: "Why is there a wagon on VV? I missed something here. Uh, ooba? Someone? I need more than 'I want to see where this goes. Also law of averages" to understand what VV's done/why wagoning him might be a good idea. Tajo? I guess I sympathize with question dodging BUT." - essentially serves to draw attention, and potentially votes, to Vas.

HackerHuck/Palumporom -

Post #563: Seraph starts pushing a Vas lynch.

HackerHuck/Seraph -

Post #573: SpyreX joins him.

HackerHuck/SpyreX -

Post #602: ekiM waffles a bit about Vas, but ultimately falls on the "Vas is an easy target" side.

Fate/HackerHuck +

Post #612: Kerrigan does the same, but also specifically singles out Seraphim as being the scum targeting the 'easy target'.

HackerHuck/PokerFace +

,

PokerFace/Seraph -

Post #613: mith talks about why he is

not

suspicious of zor, while making no mention at all of Vas, but then says at the end of the post that he'd support a zor wagon more than a Vas one.

HackerHuck/mith +

Post #668: Everything about Vas in this post is basically "let's save him for later".

HackerHuck/Palumporom -

Post #759: Seraph kicks off D2 by continuing to gun for Vas, thus demonstrating that it wasn't a case of "I'll vote my buddy now because it's obvious that someone else is getting lynched today"

HackerHuck/Seraph -

Post #787: Ditto SpyreX.

HackerHuck/SpyreX -

Post #801: Vas directs four @s at four different players. Three of them ask the question "why?", one says "I don't understand your last post."

HackerHuck/ooba +

Post #836: Vas votes ooba, the latest person to join his wagon. He doesn't address ooba at all, just continues with trying to convince Seraph that he is totally town yo.

HackerHuck/ooba +

,

HackerHuck/Seraph -

Post #861: They call this the 'Chainsaw Defence'.

HackerHuck/PokerFace +

,

PokerFace/Seraph -

Post #883: Seraph makes sure attention is drawn to ekiM.

Fate/Seraph -

Posts #921+922: Trying to weigh up whether staging this disagreement about Vas would be more beneficial to the fruit sisters if Vas was town or scum, but I'm all WIFOMed out about it. The end result of this is definitely

ooba/Palumporom -

, though.

Post #927: Vas thinks he can defend himself by pointing out that he is making himself a vig target, but wanted someone else to say it so people would actually listen, this I believe. Scum have daytalk, so scumVas could ask his scumbuddies to say it for him. Having done so, would Vas then say "thanks, buddy, I was waiting for someone to say that"? I really doubt it.

HackerHuck/Palumporom -

Post #947: ekiM takes Plum's "Vas is drawing too much attention to himself to be scum who knows there's a vig" point and runs with it, also gleefully hops onto the ooba wagon.

Fate/HackerHuck +

,

Fate/ooba -

Post #1039: mith suggests that ooba's vote on Vas has "bus-like properties", but that he doesn't think Vas is scum. That's either a

mith/ooba -

or a

mith/ooba +

depending on HackerHuck's flip.

Post #1078: SpyreX is very willing to clear others as town based off a scum flip on Vas.

HackerHuck/SpyreX -

Post #1092: Seraph calls for everyone to rank the popular wagons, but totally ignores the fact that ooba has a bigger wagon at this point than two of the wagons he does name.

ooba/Seraphim ++

Post #1145: Even if Seraphim thought scumbuddy mith had genuinely slipped up and and outed himself at this point, he could certainly go for the "no time before deadline" to avoid lynching him on that day, given that Kmd was.

mith/Seraph --

Post #1147: See above.

HackerHuck/mith -

Post #1163: Pom tries to redirect the growing mith suspicion onto Spyrex.

mith/Palumporom +

,

Palumporom/SpyreX -

Post #1236: ooba randomly ties mith to DGB.

mith/ooba -

Post #1257: MME adds a really afwul vote to the mith wagon.

mith/Pokerface -

Post #1328: Vas comes out with a shitty "if mith is town, why isn't he dead yet?" argument, which I assume would later be used to justify a later hop onto the mith wagon.

HackerHuck/mith -

(Also potential slip here, as mith pointed out.)

Post #1351: Lotta WIFOM in here. If Huck is scum,

PokerFace/SpyreX -

, If Huck is town,

PokerFace/SpyreX+

I'm not drawing any other solid conclusions.

Post #1372: Fate makes identical cases against Seraph and Kerrigan, except for how Seraph was

attacking

Vas, while Kerrigan was

defending

Vas. Through some leap of logic that I can't fathom, he decides that only voting Seraph will tell us the alignments of all three.

Fate/Seraph --

,

Fate/HackerHuck +

,

Fate/PokerFace +

Post #1379: PRAISE ALL THAT IS FAIR AND JUST VV'S SLOT IS GETTIN AN INJECTION OF COMPETENCE

Fate/HackerHuck +

Post #1380: The whole post, but particularly this: "Scum are letting him live with a pass,

letting his haters live (you)

, and then later on he'll be ripe for the LyLo." seems deep unlikely to be a conversation between two scums to me.

Fate/SpyreX -

Post #1387: Fate gets a real hate on for ooba.

Fate/ooba -

Post #1474: Huck joining the Palumporom wagon for super arbitrary reasons here.

HackerHuck/Palumporom -

Post #1485: ooba doing the same.

ooba/Palumporom -

Post #1496: Fate successfully creates a DGB/ooba tie despite apparently not thinking DGB is scum.

Fate/ooba -

Post #1505: HackerHuck throws some more dirt at Palumporom, and also talks about them tying themselves to mith that sounds awfully "I know mith is town".

HackerHuck/Palumporom -

,

HackerHuck/mith -

Post #1507: ooba returns the serve and does the same thing to Fate as Fate just did to him.

Fate/ooba -

Post #1514: PokerFace offers meta defence of ooba, and tries to persuade Fate with it.

ooba/PokerFace +

,

Fate/PokerFace -

Post #1547: Makes no sense for Fate to vote DGB here unless ooba is also scum.

Fate/ooba +

Mostly I want to draw attention to this one to make sure I remember it later, because I actually think it is a super-strong town tell for Fate either way.

Post #1586: What the fuck is this shit.

Fate/mith -

Post #1656: PokerFace tries to clear ooba based on DGB going after ooba instead of Palumporom, which is really a pretty inaccurate description of DGB's behaviour.

ooba/PokerFace +

,

Palumporom/PokerFace -

Post #1705: SpyreX tips the balance in favour of Adumbro over HackerHuck with this vote.

HackerHuck/SpyreX +

Post #1745: And now PokerFace jumps ooba down to 'likely scum', buuuut... he seems to be doing say at least partly on the basis of an Adumbro/ooba connection, which would obviously be invalidated when Adumbro was lynched and flipped town, which was pretty much guaranteed at this point.

ooba/PokerFace +

And that's everything to the end of D4.

I'm thinking it's PokerFace with either SpyreX or mith at this point, but I definitely need to re-examine things with the benefit of hindsight. I tried to break my confirmation bias through this, but I didn't necessarily succeed at all times.

[Fate]

YOU HAVE VERY, VERY INTERESTING TIMING THERE.

[Fate]

That's one hell of a post and I'm not a fan of "scumhunts via connections" since association tells are HELLA WEAKKKKKKKKK.

Also a couple of your points were so logically thawed I had myself thinking (is +++ supposed to mean more likely a connection? or more town points?)

HMMMMMMMMMMMMMM.

Unvote:

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

IF ONLY WE HAD LYNCHED OOBA SEVERAL DAYS AGO THIS WOULD BE EASIER TO SORT THROUGH. ALL MY ENERGY HAD BEEN DEVOTED TO HIM

[iamausername]

Also, since the game is over now, I can talk about Battousai's Mountainous Mountain Mafia, which ran simulataneously with this one. What I mostly want to talk about is this post from Adel's alt:

No offense to him, but I just don't think there's any basis to believe that he's sharp enough for that.

I thought about this some more. Doesn't this game require the assumption of competence? I am familiar with Hanlon's razor "

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

" but in this asymmetric information game shouldn't giving out passes for incompetence give false reading of "town" when evaluating alignments?

As it turns out, the player we were talking about was town, but at the time I made post #1834 over here, I was becoming convinced that he was scum and that Adel had been right, and I didn't want other people making the same mistake by giving Vas a pass for being an idiot here. I also didn't want to make the same mistake I'd made the previous day myself, not bothering to push for Vas over Adumbro because I found them both scummy, even if I was more convinced about Vas.

Net result: me being wrong about everything in every game. My poor ego.

[Fate]

ALL I SEE IN THAT POST:

You retroactively explaining the case you made on someone who has now flipped town that you voted OVER OOBA because ooba wasn't "a beacon of towniness" but VV was scummy as hell.

RAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

AND YOU ARENT VOTING YET TODAY. SITTING BACK AND WATCHING THE ACTION?

[Fate]

Wait a fucking second...

that game you linked doesn't include either VV, yourself, or ANYONE of importance

"This reminds me of _XXX" SCUMTELL?

IRONICALLY ENOUGH LAST TIME I SAW THAT SCUMTELL IT WAS BEING DONE BY FARSIDE WHEN YOU WERE SCUM TOGETHER.

VOTE: IAMUSERNAME

ITS BACK ON

[Fate]

ALSO THE FACT THAT YOU POSTED:

"HERES WHY I MISLYNCHED VV"

INSTEAD OF

"WELL I POSTED MY OUT OF DATE ANALYSIS JUST TO NOT BE WASTEFUL, BUT A TOWN VV+CTD TOWN FLIP TELLS ME THESE NEW SHINY THINGS:"

[Fate]

Net result: me being wrong about everything in every game. My poor ego.

K so you were in that game, w/e STILL not liking the "woe as me" card played out of nowhere.

OH WAIT.

YOU PLAYED IT TODAY, AFTER I VOTED YOU.

AND YOU IGNORED THAT VOTE. (meh maybe if i just don't address Fate he'll leave me alone, all softdefend my play this game though)

HMMMMM????????

[Fate]

THERES NO MORE GOD DAMN POINT IN BEING ANY MORE OBVTOWN OTHER THAN TO GET NK'D. AND DRAWING THE NK IS MY JOB, GOOD SIR.

NOW FUCKIN HAMMER THE REST OF YOUR READS ARE IRRELEVANT, THE FACT THAT YOU ARE TOWN IS ALL THAT WAS NECESSARY.

^IVE BEEN RIGHT SO MANY TIMES THIS GAME I CAN'T CONTAIN IT.

VVSCUMPANTSONHEADHH TOWN (CHECK)
ELLIE TOWN WHO SHOULDNT BE VIGGED (CHECK)
OOBAOBVSCUM (CHECK)
CTDOBVTOWNDRAWNK (CHECK)

REST OF THE SCUMTEAM (_____)

[iamausername]

Also a couple of your points were so logically thawed I had myself thinking (is +++ supposed to mean more likely a connection? or more town points?)

More likely connection. There are no town points. (Except the one that was explicitly stated.)

A lot of my decisions on whether a post represented an actual connection or just a bit of WIFOMsauce are super arbitrary, and I frequently miss the bigger picture; votes are often given the same weight regardless of how long they're sustained, for example. It's a method I came up with recently, it definitely needs some refining.

ALL I SEE IN THAT POST:

You retroactively explaining the case you made on someone who has now flipped town that you voted OVER OOBA because ooba wasn't "a beacon of towniness" but VV was scummy as hell.

Yes, that was the point. I'm giving more insight into my motivations, take it or leave it.

AND YOU ARENT VOTING YET TODAY. SITTING BACK AND WATCHING THE ACTION?

It's mylo. Not voting immediately is standard procedure.

that game you linked doesn't include either VV, yourself, or ANYONE of importance

Uh, check again? I was definitely in that game.

ALSO THE FACT THAT YOU POSTED:

"HERES WHY I MISLYNCHED VV"

INSTEAD OF

"WELL I POSTED MY OUT OF DATE ANALYSIS JUST TO NOT BE WASTEFUL, BUT A TOWN VV+CTD TOWN FLIP TELLS ME THESE NEW SHINY THINGS:"

I just got home from work like half an hour ago, I haven't had time yet to look at what shiny new things the flips tell me. That is what I will be working on next, like I fucking told you at the end of the first post. But right now I'm going to sleep. Try not to give yourself an anuerysm in the meantime, you psycho.

[Fate]

^Still no defense as to why you're town.

^Calling me a 'psycho' to invalidate my reads

^No content from me till LATER.

THE LATER THAT WILL NEVER COME.

ALSO THE BLOOD THAT RUSHES THROUGH MY VEINS BRINGS ME JOY, ANEURYSM? LOL I'D NEVER DIE OF SOMETHING STRESS RELATED

[SpyreX]

Hot damn balls of steel.

That whole sequence from 1938 to 1944 is icky. SpyreX looks worst, but I don't like that Fate goaded him into switching. On the other hand, what does scumFate gain from going so hard after scumooba? Maybe he thought HH would go down anyway (which is what happened, but it didn't seem likely until the very end; if HH had voted ooba instead of throwing himself on his sword in an endgame maybe we lynch ooba and go some way toward clearin

I'm going to need more than icky - and considering everything Fate sure as hell didn't 'goad' me into it.

That SAID I'm missing something. I've had IAUN as town from the before times although he pulled a great vanishing act. Fate and mith still are town. PF and Plum doesn't seem right.

FFF

[Fate]

UNVOTE:

SpyreX that post didn't include any mention of you turning your card in, OR saying "well Fates got my vote now, Iam must be dcum" OR FFFFFF HH AND VV WErE BOTH???

Because the more I think about it the more it smelled of Spy on soras action... couplle that with not hammering without permmission and your ongoing suspicion...

Did I mention CTD saiid words too and is now dead?

[Fate]

All that's missing is one more content post each from PF and Iam.

Then I will do my infamous "come out of left field and nail the scumteam at lylo with 100% accuracy" cases,
Everyone will sheep me,
Town win guaranteed. It will be epic.