Mafia 119: MURDER AT HOTEL DEATH(GAME OVER)

[RedCoyote]

Prodding a2rudeboy today and ckd tomorrow if we haven't heard from him.

Vote Count

silverbullet999(3)

- PranaDevil, Pomegranate, SnakePlissken

Jack(1)

- a2rudeboy
evilpacman18(0) -
curiouskarmadog(0) -
LynchMePls(0) -
Antihero(0) -
vollkan(0) -
a2rudeboy(0) -
Pomegranate(0) -

SnakePlissken(1)

- Jack

PranaDevil(3)

- LynchMePls, silverbullet999, evilpacman18

Not Voting(3)

- Antihero, curiouskarmadog, vollkan

With 11 alive, it is 6 to lynch

Deadline: November 1st, 2010, 2:00 AM, Central Standard Time

One week left

[curiouskarmadog]

checking in to avoid the prod....will attempt to update again shortly.

[horrordude0215]

Sorry about flaking from the game everyone It was homecoming week at the school and I didn't have time to get on. Good luck to everyone... this was a really fun game!

[a2rudeboy]

unvote

Believe it or not, I'm actually starting to come around to the idea of Jack being town. Although I'm still against some of his earlier play. Jack, any chance we can get that bandwagon analysis you promised way way back.

This game must be giving Vollkan massive headaches...I believe that's the second time we've seen that gif this game.

I was going to put a vote down...but I can't figure who i think is the scummiest right now.

[a2rudeboy]

ebwop-

unvote

[Jack]

let's just lynch snake and then a2 and then we can think about who to lynch after that.

[Antihero]

Pretty sure we can all agree Nero is town, considering he's no longer here.

oops, I made this list before I got to the end of Day 1.

[LimMePls]

Unvote
Vote: Snake

Pretty sure he's a scum watcher.

[Antihero]

Nero Cain was pretty townish. Let's revisit that wagon:

Nero Cain(10)

– Jack, SnakePlissken,

singersigner

, Pomegranate,

DemonHybrid

, horrordude0215, vollkan,

Espeonage

, vezokpiraka,

CooLDoG

Let's see that Cooldog wagon too.

CooLDoG

(8) – LynchMePls, horrordude0215, Jack, vollkan, vezokpiraka,

DemonHybrid

, SnakePlissken. Pomegranate

While I'm doing VC analysis, let's look at a the Espy wagon too.

Espeonage

(7) – vollkan,

DemonHybrid

, horrordude0215,

CooLDoG

, a2rudeboy, Pomegranate, curiouskarmadog

Yeah, I'm /in for a Pom lynch today.

VOTE: Pomegranate

[vollkan]

First off, score update:

Player	Score
SilverBullet999 NicolBolas	50
Jack	49
Evilpacman Vezokpiraka	57
curiouskarmadog	50
LynchMePls Stef	50
Antihero Horrordude	50
a2rudeboy	55
Pomegranate	50
SnakePlissken	55
PranaDevil	60

Now, because my points at the moment are largely behavioural, they haven't yet taken the Silver/Snake issue into account. I'm going to give

Snake+5

for this and

Vote: Snake

, and explain why now: First, as a matter of game design, with the power roles we have already seen I find it very hard to believe that there would be both a town watcher and tracker. Flowing from that, the odds of one of them being scum are significantly elevated. The score chart above speaks for itself in indicating that Snake's play has been scummier (even allowing for the fact that he has posted more, and more substance, than Silver). Beyond that, as I think may have been mentioned already, Snake's early crumbing was extremely casual; pro-town power roles usually value their roles highly, so his failure to do so again makes it more likely that he is scum.

Nero Cain was pretty townish. Let's revisit that wagon:

Nero Cain(10)

– Jack, SnakePlissken,

singersigner

, Pomegranate,

DemonHybrid

, horrordude0215, vollkan,

Espeonage

, vezokpiraka,

CooLDoG

Let's see that Cooldog wagon too.

CooLDoG

(8) – LynchMePls, horrordude0215, Jack, vollkan, vezokpiraka,

DemonHybrid

, SnakePlissken. Pomegranate

While I'm doing VC analysis, let's look at a the Espy wagon too.

Espeonage

(7) – vollkan,

DemonHybrid

, horrordude0215,

CooLDoG

, a2rudeboy, Pomegranate, curiouskarmadog

Yeah, I'm /in for a Pom lynch today.

VOTE: Pomegranate

Even for VC analysis, which always strikes me as nonsense, the above makes no sense. Why is Pom scum?

[Jack]

I'm somewhat uncomfortable with you saying "the score chart speaks for itself--> snake is scummier" when you voted silver a couple pages ago.

[vollkan]

I'm somewhat uncomfortable with you saying "the score chart speaks for itself--> snake is scummier" when you voted silver a couple pages ago.

That was because of two facts combined:
1) Silver apparently having a post restriction; and
2) Your early game conduct and insta-vote for Silver indicating that you had reason to think that post restriction = scum

[Antihero]

Even for VC analysis, which always strikes me as nonsense, the above makes no sense. Why is Pom scum?

She's on all 3 wagons and late on 2.

But you're right. VCs by themselves are lame. I also think her play has been scummy.

Post 86: This is a pretty piggybackish wagon jump. Also, if Pom thinks the fact that Espy is playing to his town meta doesn't say much, why did she even bring it up? She's just padding her post and making it look like she has something original to say.
Post 164: This rubs me the wrong way. She's not really proving anything with this post, she's just getting pissed off at people calling her scum with Espy.
Post 210: What's with this sphincteritis about being outed as a neighbor? DH had a point that there's no apparent reason Pom should be getting bent out of shape about this.
Also, I'm not seeing any more scumhunting taking place. Just tunneling on Espy.
Post 236: I'm not seeing anything besides "misrep" as a reason Pom gave DH is scummy. I believe the fact that Pom called DH scummy just for that and nothing else is pretty OMGUSy.
Post 529: This post is pretty telling to me (now that Espy isn't viable anymore, she's just lukewarm with an Espy lynch and all for a NC lynch? Also, keep in mind she's not voting NC)
So far, this play is saying "Self-preservation" to me.
Post 585: Pom telling anybody to scumhunt is pretty hypocritical.
Post 596: You know, I don't know why the "Well, that sucks" tell is so widely criticized. Yes, it's a wikitell, but I find it (unlike most wikitells) to be pretty reliable.
Post 604: Is there any wagon Pom's not for?
Post 714: Nobody questioned this sudden request for a hammer from Pom? What the f%$# is wrong with you people?
Post 764: Self-victimization=scummy
Post 1002: Oh, so now you're piling onto silverbullet... how original.

@vollkan: Why did you vote for snake when he doesn't have the highest score on your chart?

[vollkan]

Pom can respond to your case.

@vollkan: Why did you vote for snake when he doesn't have the highest score on your chart?

Usually my choice between two top suspects comes down to either who I am less certain about or policy considerations. Here, though, there is a good reason for favouring Snake: he appears to be a mafia watcher, which is a confirmed (from what the mod said) additional risk over and above him simply being scum

[Antihero]

Pom can respond to your case.

OK, fine.

What do you (and everyone else) think of it?

[SnakePlissken]

What I'm not getting is why your all so sure that I'm a scum watcher and silver isn't a scum tracker? Does make me wonder what your real motivations are here?

[vollkan]

What I'm not getting is why your all so sure that I'm a scum watcher and silver isn't a scum tracker? Does make me wonder what your real motivations are here?

I've already explained this:

First, as a matter of game design, with the power roles we have already seen I find it very hard to believe that there would be both a town watcher and tracker. Flowing from that, the odds of one of them being scum are significantly elevated. The score chart above speaks for itself in indicating that Snake's play has been scummier (even allowing for the fact that he has posted more, and more substance, than Silver). Beyond that, as I think may have been mentioned already, Snake's early crumbing was extremely casual; pro-town power roles usually value their roles highly, so his failure to do so again makes it more likely that he is scum.

[PranaDevil]

Vollkan, I'm uncomfortable with you saying the chart speaks for itself, and that Snake has been scummier than Silver... when you only gave Snake those five points in that post.

Surely you could have done the same to absolutely anyone?

Also, you admitted in that very post that your chart is now meaningless because everything has been largely behavioural. So what use is it currently if that's the case anyway? More to the point, should you not be ignoring anything that's behavioural if it doesn't mean anything?

[vollkan]

Vollkan, I'm uncomfortable with you saying the chart speaks for itself, and that Snake has been scummier than Silver... when you only gave Snake those five points in that post.

That's not true. The chart is the points as they stood prior to me giving Snake an additional 5. The reason I did it that way was to make it clear that Snake's play was scummier than Silver's to begin with and that this becomes much more significant when I added the later five points concerning his claim and crumbing.

Also, you admitted in that very post that your chart is now meaningless because everything has been largely behavioural. So what use is it currently if that's the case anyway? More to the point, should you not be ignoring anything that's behavioural if it doesn't mean anything?

I think you've misunderstood me. I award points as I am playing the game for particular behaviours that I consider scummy. The problem with this is that it means that my system is unable to deal with non-behavioural factors that make people more likely to be scum (eg. where you have two players who have claimed roles that are unlikely to both be town). Just like the -1 point for Jack was based on something not related to his play, it's something that I have to insert into the system so that it better tracks my suspicions.

In short, my system is normally simply a means of measuring the scumtels that a person commits. However, through adding points where appropriate for non-behavioural matters, I can make it more akin to a "probability-of-being-scum measurer"

[PranaDevil]

Okay, that makes me feel better, I misunderstood the chart as I read it like Snake's 55 was only through the +5 you gave him up there, which understandably concerned me.

I'm still not actually a fan of your chart anyway, it feels like it's something that could be manipulated as Voll-scum to make yourself appear to be scum hunting as you go, when you're not.

But at the moment I do believe Snake is possibly scum with his actions, plus I don't remember seeing him actually "do" anything this game. It feels like he's keeping his head low and avoiding actually commenting on anything to slide under the radar.

unvote;
Vote: Snake

I still want to see Evilpacman lynched though.

[Jack]

What I'm not getting is why your all so sure that I'm a scum watcher and silver isn't a scum tracker? Does make me wonder what your real motivations are here?

Does it? Does it make you wonder? That's interesting.

[LimMePls]

What I'm not getting is why your all so sure that I'm a scum watcher and silver isn't a scum tracker? Does make me wonder what your real motivations are here?

This is the sort of thing I'd expect scum to say. "Why me?"

[Pomegranate]

@Mod- I am requesting replacement. I cannot handle mafia right now.

Sorry to hear that, Pom. I'll start looking for someone else.

[SnakePlissken]

This game has kinda become all disjointed since the long night so I'm not fussed if you lynch me, maybe it will help you gets some leads on real scum.

[SnakePlissken]

unvote