Good Omens Mafia! Game Over.

[Mr. Flay]

Just to bump the "no posts exist" topic, I think if things come down to Fuldu's final decision, we've done this day correctly, since he appears to be the only truly confirmed soul we have still alive.

If I've missed some sort of outstanding question directed at me, please let me know.

[Dragon Slayer]

Vote Count

1 Esme (Pooky)

3 to lynch

.

[Mr. Flay]

Hello?? Are we all waiting for someone to crack under the pressure??

[Fuldu]

I'm waiting for a nose-count response from mneme and Pooky before I go any further.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

what's a nose count response?

[mneme]

I'd like to know that too -- but yes, I'm here, the weekend having ended.

[Fuldu]

It was clearer in the original post where I brought it up. A nosecount is just a votecount without all the mess and potential bother of actually voting. Basically I want to know who the two of you would like to lynch.

[mneme]

Fudlu: flay or esme.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Esme(that's where my vote is )

[mneme]

Eh. Or Pooky -- I keep forgetting that Pooky has found both Flay and myself innocent. If Pooky is guilty, one of us could be guilty. If he's innocent, than Esme must be our last scum (presumably, hastur).

Here's my problem:

I'd assume that if hell had one godfather, it would be Satan.
But Pooky is right that another godfather possibility is Sister Mary.
If pooky is scum, one of the people he investigated and found innocent may be scum.
But another possiblity is that an "innocent" person is actually an evil, investigation-immune Sister Mary.
If so, I don't really see much distinction between esme+flay (I know I'm not scum) and pooky+flay.

But...the common pattern there is "flay."

[Mr. Flay]

You're completely ignoring the possibility of one scum, and it being esme. I'm *not* some sort of "common factor", and I don't get why people are saying I am. In my mind, it's either esme (most likely) or Pooky+mneme, with a SMALL chance of esme+mneme+incredible luck. The idea of Fuldu's guilt beggars belief (scum-mason in a no-alignment-reveal game?), and I know who I am, even if I can't tell you.

Can we go back to something a little more logical, please, like figuring out which two roles might be missed?? This round-and-round is getting us nowhere, and if we can decide if someone else is more likely to be missing than Sister Mary, then I'll go with the two-scum-remaining theory. Right now, though, I've already laid out mine on the last page:

Hastur - almost has to exist. I believe it's esme, but it could be Fuldu, with Pooky as a mafia cop.
Thou-Shalt-Not-Commit-Adultery Pulsifer - may not exist, since the other two Witchfinders were a two-man mason. May be Pooky.
Agnes Nutter - probably Pooky, unless he's Sister Mary.
Sister Mary Loquacious - Fuldu believes she exists, I'm willing to entertain the possibility she's around, but no way to be sure.
A Delivery Man - probably exists; allegiance unknown.
Wensleydale - Fuldu.
Alien - probably exists, since all of the other "groups" at the end of the Dramatis Personae exist (Americans, Atlantians, etc). Identity unknown.

[Mr. Flay]

Oh, right: if esme IS pro-town and there's two scum left on the same team, then they've been taking their own sweet time speedlynching her. Just a thought, since most of us seem to think Pooky+esme is unlikely, given that they could have set somebody else up for the loss.

[Fuldu]

You're completely ignoring the possibility of one scum, and it being esme. I'm *not* some sort of "common factor", and I don't get why people are saying I am.

I don't know that anyone's ignoring that. It's just the fact that if there's only one scum left, then we can deal with that tomorrow. You are generally the common factor in most of the probable two-scum scenarios. I agree with your implicit claim that if you're pro-town, the most likely scenario is that esme is scum by herself. But I don't know that you're pro-town in the way that you presume for all your conclusions about what we should do.

Also, figuring out which two roles might be left out really isn't especially helpful at this point, except to point out additional comments you've made that indicate to me that you're not the Delivery Man. Nobody, but nobody, says "allegiance unknown" about their own role, even in a no claim game.

Which brings me back to the fundamental argument that if neither esme or Flay is the Delivery Man, then one of them must be scum if the plain townie roles are to go around the way they need to. If there's only one scum left, it's more likely to be esme, but if there are two scum left, it's more likely to be Flay. Since two scum is the greater threat today, that makes Flay the right lynch for today.

[Mr. Flay]

Fuldu, I

continue

to be unable to respond to your accusations that I am/am not the Delivery Man. I simply won't risk a modkill at this late juncture; I'll vote first.

And for the record, I didn't say that just anyone was ignoring the possibility, that portion of my response was directed at mneme, whose summation in the second half of his post ignored the very real possibility that he laid out in his first half, all so he could come to the conclusion that I was some sort of common denominator of scuminess.

[Fuldu]

Fuldu, I continue to be unable to respond to your accusations that I am/am not the Delivery Man. I simply won't risk a modkill at this late juncture; I'll vote first.

As you shouldn't. I'm making comments on that for everyone else's benefit, not yours. I guess the only other reason I'm putting those things out there is because if you do turn out to be the Delivery Man, I'm going to be pissed at you after the game and I want to make sure it's clear why.

[Mr. Flay]

Understood.

*goes back to waiting for the others*

[Fuldu]

I guess I would add to the Delivery Man argument with this. Flay doesn't like that I've pointed to him over esme as the preferable lynch for today, but he at least understands the basic principle at work that one of esme/Flay almost certainly has to be lying. Since he knows it's not him, he's in favor of lynching esme and has been pretty much all of today. esme, on the other hand, has Flay at the very bottom of her list of scum candidates, prefering to lynch Pooky or mneme first. To me, this just increases the likelhood that she's scum alone, since she knows that if we lynch Flay and he turns up Alien, she's next in line with very little recourse. Whereas, if we lynch Pooky and he turns up Agnes, she can still argue that one of the other two is Hastur with an investigative immunity. It's a hard sell, but a better bet given that she's pretty much talked herself out of every pro-town role except Alien.

[esme]

Whereas, if we lynch Pooky and he turns up Agnes, she can still argue that one of the other two is Hastur with an investigative immunity.
It's a hard sell, but a better bet given that she's pretty much talked herself out of every pro-town role except Alien.

Mneme avoided talking about roles the whole game which I would like you to realize as highly suspicious in addition to the two last day's lynches which Mneme and Pooky *both* failed to comment upon.

[Mr. Flay]

*blink* Hello? 3 days since the last post...I know it was a holiday here in the States and all, but...

Oh, right: if esme IS pro-town and there's two scum left on the same team, then they've been taking their own sweet time speedlynching her. Just a thought, since most of us seem to think Pooky+esme is unlikely, given that they could have set somebody else up for the loss.

Anyone have more to say about this? I'm about 98% sure esme is scum now, but I don't want to set up a speedlynch before we all report back in.

[esme]

*blink* Hello? 3 days since the last post...I know it was a holiday here in the States and all, but...

Oh, right: if esme IS pro-town and there's two scum left on the same team, then they've been taking their own sweet time speedlynching her. Just a thought, since most of us seem to think Pooky+esme is unlikely, given that they could have set somebody else up for the loss.

Anyone have more to say about this? I'm about 98% sure esme is scum now, but I don't want to set up a speedlynch before we all report back in.

Ehmm, it just means that if I am pro-town and there are two scum left, then Pooky is one of them, but we knew that anyway, unless you assume that we have two scum with investigation immunity left. It's just one more reason to lynch Pooky today, since we *should* go for the two-scum option today.

[mneme]

Flay: it was a 5 day holiday, yes. And a weekend. Not all that surprising.

Esme has been harping on my "avoiding talking about roles". But I haven't -- I've certainly avoided speculating on my -own- role (because that's, you know, against the rules), but I've tried (not always successfully) to keep up with speculations on other roles and use such speculations.

The fact is, however, that the sprirt of the rules involves trying to play mafia, rather than work around the restrictions which are, after all, intended to avoid having us use the roles to solve the game rather than our mafia solving skills. So for the most part I've tried to do this.

[mneme]

Esme: you are discounting the idea that you are one of the scum -- something you've been consistently ignoring. If you are one of the scum, since you have not been investigated, then only one scum needs to be either pooky or investigation-immune.

Since the argument is esme-as-scum vs esme-not-as-scum, this seems like a very silly thing to ignore.

[esme]

Since other people find it more likely that I'm scum alone if I'm scum and those people ignore that if I'm not scum and there are two scum, then Pooky *has* to be scum, it's not exactly silly to remind you of this.

[Fuldu]

The problem with lynching Pooky in the safeguarding-against-two-scum scenario is that if he's town and there's only one scum, having lynched him tells us little about who to lynch tomorrow.

Unlike mneme, I don't have anything against interpreting mod-given role/setup data in order to aid in analyzing roleclaims. Hence, I've concluded based on what we know about the setup and what people have said about their roles that it's extremely likely that either esme or Flay is lying. The more of this discussion we have, the more I'm convinced it's esme, but I still think Flay is the safest lynch for today, just to cover all our possible threats. If we lynch Flay, the only feasible scum layout to which we could lose is esme+mneme, since I find esme+Pooky to be beyond ridiculous. If I'm wrong about my analysis of either esme or Flay being a liar, then Pooky+mneme is a possibility, but I really don't think I'm wrong about that and, at the very least, I think that argument is well-supported. Since Flay+Pooky is a reasonable scum pair, I'm more concerned about Flay than esme today, and since esme+Flay is a plausible (though I think not enormously likely) scum pair, I'm more concerned about Flay than Pooky. Also, by lynching Flay, we can verify the conclusions I've come to about esme and Flay's roleclaims. If he turns out to be the Alien, then we know esme is lying, since she's worked harder to emphasize the possibility that Flay might be Delivery Man or that DM might be scum than Flay has. If he turns out to be DM, then we know not to listen to me and can go into the final day without automatically lynching esme. I view lynching Flay as providing the best combination of finding scum and producing valuable information.

[Mr. Flay]

I think that if we look back farther than just today, our least helpful lynchers have been mneme and esme. I'd prefer one of those to Pooky, but lynching him would tell us a LOT about the veracity of his claimed investigations, if not everything. It'll also depend a lot on whether the remaining scum (assuming we either have two, or guess wrong) decide to kill Fuldu or Pooky tonight.