/Invitational 11: Pick your Poison 5 (Game Over)

Fate · Post Post #2050 (ISO) » Mon Oct 25, 2010 7:01 pm

Mith is still going to CC me. He wouldn't have claimed either bc he wouldn't. Have been wagonned, YOU would have. This way the cards are in my hand and we go my way today.

Also I will reconsider given what you said re MC and PF defending mith setup meta. Lurker slots always give me trouble endgame.

Fate · Post Post #2051 (ISO) » Mon Oct 25, 2010 7:02 pm

SpyreX wrote:I guess I don't have to explain the town part now I hope.

GOD.

?

SpyreX · Post Post #2052 (ISO) » Mon Oct 25, 2010 7:04 pm

Where I said I still know you're town even though I want to throttle you. Because I was PRETTY CONFIDENT you were the vig.

SpyreX · Post Post #2053 (ISO) » Mon Oct 25, 2010 7:05 pm

Lurker slots always give me trouble

endgame

.

Yes.

Good gravy can I sleep now?

I was really hoping it was BOOM SPYREX WAS A RUSE GAMBIT

Fate · Post Post #2054 (ISO) » Mon Oct 25, 2010 7:13 pm

Yeah goodnight.

I was going to gambit it up but I had written so much Spyscum text I rolled with it even though rereading the game gave me a town read on you again...

SpyreX · Post Post #2055 (ISO) » Mon Oct 25, 2010 7:16 pm

I was going to gambit it up but I had written so much Spyscum text I rolled with it even though rereading the game gave me a town read on you again...

Is it possible to both brolove and brohate at the same time?

Because, I think I'm there.

And sleeping.

PokerFace · Post Post #2056 (ISO) » Tue Oct 26, 2010 1:58 am

<<Not countering

just so you know. I won't discuss how I feel about the claim until everyone else checks in and I'm all caught up on things

PokerFace · Post Post #2057 (ISO) » Tue Oct 26, 2010 2:31 am

WTF?! I just read 2010-2015. How the hell did spyreX quote 2015 in 2010? I've been sober for about a month now and never done drugs, wtf. I didn't didn't rent out my time machine to anyone in this thread..... at least not yet

ISO · Post Post #2058 (ISO) » Tue Oct 26, 2010 2:40 am

I was in the middle of typing up an analysis of the possibilities remaining, but I had a "wait, what?" moment. I'll go ahead and post the analysis as well, but:

Fate, 2039: "2. I fear that if we lynch Spyscum today, and I die tonight,

the vig won't have the balls to shoot mith

and then mith will manipulate the rest of you sheeples away from himself tomorrow."

Fate, 2040: "I AM THE VIGILANTE."

Case 1: Fate is the Vigilante, and wins a Scummie for being the biggest idiot in the history of mafiascum. Seriously, what part of "a Vigilante kill tonight is a free kill for the town, the Vigilante needs to stay hidden and unblocked" didn't get through? If he's the Vigilante, believes he has fooled the scum, and believes I am one of the scum, he should have just shot me tonight; at least that would leave some hope of town pulling this out after I come up town.

If Fate is town, it's PokerFace/SpyreX (with a slight chance of other scum just playing an awesome game, in which case congrats in advance).

Case 2: Fate is scum, trying to out the real Vigilante, or even anticipate who the real Vigilante is so that when the real Vig counters he has a chance at a mislynch and instant-win.

PokerFace/Fate is more likely here, followed by SpyreX/Fate. If it were either of the others, there's no reason whatsoever for Fate to try to out the Vigilante, because the team wouldn't fear the extra kill.

PokerFace/Fate = PokerFace is headed toward a lynching, and is the Roleblocker. Early in the day, Fate is ok with getting me to rule him out as a possibility, because then the Vig kill and tomorrow's lynch drop on SpyreX and iamausername in some order and he wins. After iamausername's massive re-read and Plumegranate and I both expressing confidence in his innocence, Fate's fate (ha) is not so clear after a PokerFace lynch. On the other hand, if Fate pushes through a mislynch, win, and if he at least outs the real Vig he gives PokerFace a fighting chance.

SpyreX/Fate = The only reason to fake claim here is if the scum haven't narrowed down the possibile Vigilante candidates through previous blocks. If they've ruled out two of us, they let the PokerFace mislynch proceed and either PokerFace is the Vig, or after the mislynch they know who the Vig is and block that player for the win. Otherwise, they have either a 1/2 or 1/3 chance of blocking the Vig after a mislynch for the win, so a fake claim means he doesn't think he'd be able to push through a mislynch tomorrow if the Vig kill gets through, and he's confident enough that either [I'm the Vig and he can get a mislynch on me] or [PokerFace will be lynched instead of SpyreX tomorrow after Fate sacrifices himself to out the Vig] to beat those odds.

Between the slip and the "I don't think Fate is that much of an idiot", I think Fate is lying scum. I'm not going to counter-claim, whatever my role is, because I think Fate is trying to out the real Vig, and I'd rather have two chances to figure out whether his buddy is PokerFace or SpyreX than just one. (In the event that Fate guessed wrong and someone else is the Vig, up to you whether you think it's more important to be sure the Fate lynch goes through or stay hidden to shoot his scumbuddy in the face after we lynch him.)

VOTE: Fate

ISO · Post Post #2059 (ISO) » Tue Oct 26, 2010 2:53 am

(2010-2014 are out of order because of a timestamp issue discussed elsewhere - the server time was 5 hours off for part of yesterday.)

SpyreX: "You're saying 1942 (which sure wasn't there in the 'icky' post)" - "That whole sequence from 1938 to 1944 is icky." Er... last I checked 1942 was in the sequence from 1938 to 1944.

As for the rest, the thinking is that if you were town and thought they were both scum, you wouldn't move away from the one you thought was the Roleblocker, because a dead Roleblocker = increased likelihood of an extra shot gained through the Vig shooting twice. Even with HH/ooba both being scum, there would be one scum left, and lynching HH first means that if ooba really is the Roleblocker he has a chance to block the Vig that night (and after we lynch ooba, we only have two chances to hit the last scum, rather than the three we have if ooba is lynched, HH is Vig'd, and the scum don't kill the Vig).

iamausername · Post Post #2060 (ISO) » Tue Oct 26, 2010 3:32 am

Well, that makes things easier.

For one, there is no way a vanilla townie would propose lynching an uncountered vig claim when it is 100% confirmed that we have a vig, and lynching that vig today would result in an immediate town loss, so mith may as well just go ahead and counterclaim.

VOTE: No Lynch

The roleblocker may be out of shots already, in which case mith and Fate can just shoot each other. That's best case scenario. But even if this isn't the case, we'll just get our options narrowed a little for finding the other scum. So it's the best move either way, I think.

iamausername · Post Post #2061 (ISO) » Tue Oct 26, 2010 3:50 am

iamausername wrote:The roleblocker may be out of shots already

Wait, that's stupid. This is obviously not true.

Unvote

mith. Tell us why you made the shots you did, or tell me why you think lynching an uncountered vig when we are 100% confirmed to have a vig and lynching that vig loses the game for town is a good idea.

Fate · Post Post #2062 (ISO) » Tue Oct 26, 2010 3:55 am

DID HE CC? LOL CALLED IT.

No one do anything stupid till I get back from work. Were lynching mithbllocker today

ISO · Post Post #2063 (ISO) » Tue Oct 26, 2010 4:00 am

Argh! I was convinced you were the Vig after my reread, iam (the Ellibereth kill, the possibilty that you would shoot Rhinox because of your Rhinox/DGB theory even though it seemed obvious to me that Rhinox was softcountering), I was trying to keep things in doubt. I'm not the Vig, just a Townsperson.

Why lynching an uncountered Vig claim was a good idea: I thought you were the Vig before his claim, but initially had some doubt after the claim... then I saw what appeared to be a major slip (why would Fate be concerned with the Vig not shooting me, if he were the Vig?) and ran with it. If Fate were lying scum trying to out the Vig, getting him lynched without more claims gives us two shots at his buddy instead of just one (in particular: it seemed likely he thought

I

was the Vig, and his buddy would shoot me instead of you).

iamausername is pretty much confirmed innocent now - as scum, he could have just followed Fate for the win. Plumegranate have already claimed, and PokerFace and SpyreX basically ruled themselves out, so Fate is confirmed as well (and a moron).

It's PokerFace/SpyreX.

UNVOTE: Fate

ISO · Post Post #2064 (ISO) » Tue Oct 26, 2010 4:12 am

PokerFace is the more likely Roleblocker, with the SpyreX-Janitor link Fate pointed out earlier, so I'm voting that way in hopes of getting an extra shot despite Fate's ill-timed claim.

(Given that Fate thinks it's SpyreX/mith, that's probably just going to confirm his suspicions, but there's not much I can do about that with my vote. I'll respond to his post later, have to run an errand now.)

VOTE: PokerFace

ISO · Post Post #2065 (ISO) » Tue Oct 26, 2010 6:10 am

Fate: There's a lot of confirmation bias here; you've basically started with the assumption I'm scum and tried to put motivation to all my actions in the game. Where applicable, I'll point out where you're wrong, either in your premises or in the belief that scummith would act as you suggest; otherwise, I'll give my actual pro-town motivation and thought process.

Calling SpyreX scum but making no moves beside, "hey did anyone else see how scummy SpyreX is? Is it time to bus him?" - Or... mith is trying to figure out the game, and gives SpyreX a chance to explain an apparently scummy statement. His response follows in the next post, and was enough to rule out "slip" (even now that I am pretty much certain he is scum, mistypings like that happen to town - I've got a history of leaving off "n't" and ending up with "would" instead of "wouldn't").

"Mith's voting Zor RIGHT when his wagon was dying to get a claim." - Er... his wagon was dying? No. His wagon was at L-2 (had been L-1, but Herodotus moved to make sure we weren't neglecting other suspects), it was time for a claim. Had I not voted zoraster, I have little doubt someone else would have demanded a claim soon after - that wagon dissolved temporarily only because of Kmd's insane "mith couldn't believe that" case, not because of anything town zoraster did.

The ooba stuff - I had a town read on ooba for much of the game, and I'm not big on "hai guys we're going to lynch this player without giving any reasoning". I saw a wagon pop up on someone I wasn't suspicious of, and wanted an explanation, both to see if there was something to it, and to get Papa Zito posting more substance to better read

him

.

"The bolded comes a few ISO posts

[and two claims, a softclaim, a scum lynch, and a nightkill]

AFTER MITH SAYS:" - Fixed that for you.

"First Ooba is #2 candidate, then he'd rather lynch ME over a nulltell lurker?" - ooba wasn't #2 candidate; ooba was second out of the three viable lynches day 3 (DGB, ooba, Plumegranate). Day 4, I look back and see Fate trying to push things away from DGB, then coming out with a vauge Ellibereth-town meta; in the moment, DGB/Ellibereth/Fate looked well worth considering.

"Notice mith's interactions with SpyreX occilate between setting him up for a bus and defending based on what the situation calls for. Definitely not consistent." - Or: mith is town and trying to figure out the game. As my suspicions change, my posts follow.

"I also never noticed the point where he switched from me being more lynch worthy than Ooba to me making decent points on Ooba." - Ellibereth came up town, for one; to start the day, HH/Fate seemed quite possible. Then ooba posted, and I saw a strong HH/ooba link. Moving to ooba was about his posting day 5, not your argument; the argument of yours I found persuasive was the "ooba is scum regardless of HH's alignment" stuff based on that posting.

"I already explained how useless this was." - It was admittedly subtle; I had spotted the apparent VV slip two days previous (see: 1410, "Note to self: 1328.") but with only one kill after the DGB lynch it looked like Elmo killed Herodotus and it couldn't be a slip (1684: "I have a hesitation on him - well, VasudeVa - similar to the one on PokerFace, however; I'm not ready to discuss yet since it involves speculation on the night results."). When it became clear that there were two Vigs, he jumped back to the top, but I wanted to avoid running him up, getting a fake Vig claim from him (which couldn't be ruled out by the slip) and outing the real Vig on counterclaim. Thus, the apparently useless statement - I was pretty confident that HH, being a top suspect from the previous day, could not make that statement if he were the Vig - so either he would claim Vig (no loss, since he would have been run up to a claim anyway, with the added benefit of a fake claim being extremely unlikely pre-wagon) or he wouldn't and I'd call him out on the slip, having ruled out the HH-Vig possibility.

"He had been holding this UNTIL it became 100% CLEAR that there were two Vigs to

him

." - Fixed.

If it's not obvious from this game, it should be obvious from my participation in Mafia Discussion that I think about power role interactions

a lot

. I put together a spreadsheet to calculate the EV of a 2 Vig, 2 Tracker massclaim

out of curiosity

. The VV post caught my eye initially because he was using a very scummy "mith is still alive so he must be scum" argument, or I might not have noticed that he was assuming a Herodotus nightkill, but once I spotted that of course I took the time to think about

why

he would think that.

(This is probably unreadable, but here's a copy of the spreadsheet, in case anyone is thinking that whole EV thing was BS.)

Code: Select all

			Lynch 1		Night 1		Lynch 2		Night 2		Lynch 3		Night 3		Lynch 4		Night 4			
1	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.028571429	1:12:3	0.076923077	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000549451	1	0.000549451
2	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.028571429	1:12:3	0.923076923	1:11:3	0.083333333	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000549451	1	0.000549451
3	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.028571429	1:12:3	0.923076923	1:11:3	0.152777778	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.001007326	1	0.001007326
4	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.028571429	1:12:3	0.923076923	1:11:3	0.763888889	1:10:2	0.090909091	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000457875	1	0.000457875
5	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.028571429	1:12:3	0.923076923	1:11:3	0.763888889	1:10:2	0.909090909	1:9:2	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000457875	1	0.000457875
6	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.028571429	1:12:3	0.923076923	1:11:3	0.763888889	1:10:2	0.909090909	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000412088	1	0.000412088
7	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.028571429	1:12:3	0.923076923	1:11:3	0.763888889	1:10:2	0.909090909	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.9	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.003708791	0.593650794	0.002201727
8	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.342857143	2:11:3	0.153846154	1:11:3	0.083333333	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.001098901	1	0.001098901
9	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.342857143	2:11:3	0.153846154	1:11:3	0.152777778	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.002014652	1	0.002014652
10	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.342857143	2:11:3	0.153846154	1:11:3	0.763888889	1:10:2	0.090909091	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000915751	1	0.000915751
11	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.342857143	2:11:3	0.153846154	1:11:3	0.763888889	1:10:2	0.909090909	1:9:2	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000915751	1	0.000915751
12	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.342857143	2:11:3	0.153846154	1:11:3	0.763888889	1:10:2	0.909090909	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000824176	1	0.000824176
13	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.342857143	2:11:3	0.153846154	1:11:3	0.763888889	1:10:2	0.909090909	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.9	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.007417582	0.593650794	0.004403454
14	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.342857143	2:11:3	0.846153846	2:10:3	0.166666667	1:10:2	0.090909091	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.001098901	1	0.001098901
15	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.342857143	2:11:3	0.846153846	2:10:3	0.166666667	1:10:2	0.909090909	1:9:2	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.001098901	1	0.001098901
16	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.342857143	2:11:3	0.846153846	2:10:3	0.166666667	1:10:2	0.909090909	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000989011	1	0.000989011
17	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.342857143	2:11:3	0.846153846	2:10:3	0.166666667	1:10:2	0.909090909	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.9	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.008901099	0.593650794	0.005284144
18	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.342857143	2:11:3	0.846153846	2:10:3	0.138888889	2*:9:2	1	1:9:2	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.001007326	1	0.001007326
19	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.342857143	2:11:3	0.846153846	2:10:3	0.138888889	2*:9:2	1	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000906593	1	0.000906593
20	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.342857143	2:11:3	0.846153846	2:10:3	0.138888889	2*:9:2	1	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.9	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.008159341	0.593650794	0.004843799
21	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.342857143	2:11:3	0.846153846	2:10:3	0.694444444	2:9:2	0.181818182	1:9:2	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000915751	1	0.000915751
22	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.342857143	2:11:3	0.846153846	2:10:3	0.694444444	2:9:2	0.181818182	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000824176	1	0.000824176
23	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.342857143	2:11:3	0.846153846	2:10:3	0.694444444	2:9:2	0.181818182	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.9	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.007417582	0.593650794	0.004403454
24	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.342857143	2:11:3	0.846153846	2:10:3	0.694444444	2:9:2	0.818181818	2:8:2	0.1	2*:8:1	1	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.004120879	0.593650794	0.002446363
25	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.342857143	2:11:3	0.846153846	2:10:3	0.694444444	2:9:2	0.818181818	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.2	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.007417582	0.593650794	0.004403454
26	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.342857143	2:11:3	0.846153846	2:10:3	0.694444444	2:9:2	0.818181818	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.8	2:7:1	1	2:7	0.02967033	0.298412698	0.008854003
27	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.089795918	3*:10:3	1	2:10:3	0.166666667	1:10:2	0.090909091	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000340136	1	0.000340136
28	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.089795918	3*:10:3	1	2:10:3	0.166666667	1:10:2	0.909090909	1:9:2	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000340136	1	0.000340136
29	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.089795918	3*:10:3	1	2:10:3	0.166666667	1:10:2	0.909090909	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000306122	1	0.000306122
30	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.089795918	3*:10:3	1	2:10:3	0.166666667	1:10:2	0.909090909	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.9	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.002755102	0.593650794	0.001635569
31	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.089795918	3*:10:3	1	2:10:3	0.138888889	2*:9:2	1	1:9:2	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000311791	1	0.000311791
32	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.089795918	3*:10:3	1	2:10:3	0.138888889	2*:9:2	1	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000280612	1	0.000280612
33	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.089795918	3*:10:3	1	2:10:3	0.138888889	2*:9:2	1	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.9	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.00252551	0.593650794	0.001499271
34	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.089795918	3*:10:3	1	2:10:3	0.694444444	2:9:2	0.181818182	1:9:2	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000283447	1	0.000283447
35	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.089795918	3*:10:3	1	2:10:3	0.694444444	2:9:2	0.181818182	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000255102	1	0.000255102
36	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.089795918	3*:10:3	1	2:10:3	0.694444444	2:9:2	0.181818182	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.9	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.002295918	0.593650794	0.001362974
37	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.089795918	3*:10:3	1	2:10:3	0.694444444	2:9:2	0.818181818	2:8:2	0.1	2*:8:1	1	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.00127551	0.593650794	0.000757208
38	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.089795918	3*:10:3	1	2:10:3	0.694444444	2:9:2	0.818181818	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.2	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.002295918	0.593650794	0.001362974
39	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.089795918	3*:10:3	1	2:10:3	0.694444444	2:9:2	0.818181818	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.8	2:7:1	1	2:7	0.009183673	0.298412698	0.002740525
40	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.53877551	3:10:3	0.230769231	2:10:3	0.166666667	1:10:2	0.090909091	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000470958	1	0.000470958
41	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.53877551	3:10:3	0.230769231	2:10:3	0.166666667	1:10:2	0.909090909	1:9:2	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000470958	1	0.000470958
42	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.53877551	3:10:3	0.230769231	2:10:3	0.166666667	1:10:2	0.909090909	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000423862	1	0.000423862
43	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.53877551	3:10:3	0.230769231	2:10:3	0.166666667	1:10:2	0.909090909	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.9	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.003814757	0.593650794	0.002264633
44	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.53877551	3:10:3	0.230769231	2:10:3	0.138888889	2*:9:2	1	1:9:2	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000431711	1	0.000431711
45	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.53877551	3:10:3	0.230769231	2:10:3	0.138888889	2*:9:2	1	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	0.00038854	1	0.00038854
46	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.53877551	3:10:3	0.230769231	2:10:3	0.138888889	2*:9:2	1	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.9	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.00349686	0.593650794	0.002075914
47	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.53877551	3:10:3	0.230769231	2:10:3	0.694444444	2:9:2	0.181818182	1:9:2	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000392465	1	0.000392465
48	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.53877551	3:10:3	0.230769231	2:10:3	0.694444444	2:9:2	0.181818182	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000353218	1	0.000353218
49	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.53877551	3:10:3	0.230769231	2:10:3	0.694444444	2:9:2	0.181818182	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.9	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.003178964	0.593650794	0.001887194
50	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.53877551	3:10:3	0.230769231	2:10:3	0.694444444	2:9:2	0.818181818	2:8:2	0.1	2*:8:1	1	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.001766091	0.593650794	0.001048441
51	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.53877551	3:10:3	0.230769231	2:10:3	0.694444444	2:9:2	0.818181818	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.2	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.003178964	0.593650794	0.001887194
52	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.53877551	3:10:3	0.230769231	2:10:3	0.694444444	2:9:2	0.818181818	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.8	2:7:1	1	2:7	0.012715856	0.298412698	0.003794573
53	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.53877551	3:10:3	0.769230769	3:9:3	0.25	2:9:2	0.181818182	1:9:2	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000470958	1	0.000470958
54	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.53877551	3:10:3	0.769230769	3:9:3	0.25	2:9:2	0.181818182	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000423862	1	0.000423862
55	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.53877551	3:10:3	0.769230769	3:9:3	0.25	2:9:2	0.181818182	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.9	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.003814757	0.593650794	0.002264633
56	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.53877551	3:10:3	0.769230769	3:9:3	0.25	2:9:2	0.818181818	2:8:2	0.1	2*:8:1	1	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.002119309	0.593650794	0.00125813
57	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.53877551	3:10:3	0.769230769	3:9:3	0.25	2:9:2	0.818181818	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.2	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.003814757	0.593650794	0.002264633
58	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.53877551	3:10:3	0.769230769	3:9:3	0.25	2:9:2	0.818181818	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.8	2:7:1	1	2:7	0.015259027	0.298412698	0.004553487
59	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.53877551	3:10:3	0.769230769	3:9:3	0.125	3*:8:2	1	2:8:2	0.1	2*:8:1	1	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.001295133	0.593650794	0.000768857
60	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.53877551	3:10:3	0.769230769	3:9:3	0.125	3*:8:2	1	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.2	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.00233124	0.593650794	0.001383943
61	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.53877551	3:10:3	0.769230769	3:9:3	0.125	3*:8:2	1	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.8	2:7:1	1	2:7	0.009324961	0.298412698	0.002782687
62	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.53877551	3:10:3	0.769230769	3:9:3	0.625	3:8:2	0.272727273	2:8:2	0.1	2*:8:1	1	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.001766091	0.593650794	0.001048441
63	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.53877551	3:10:3	0.769230769	3:9:3	0.625	3:8:2	0.272727273	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.2	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.003178964	0.593650794	0.001887194
64	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.53877551	3:10:3	0.769230769	3:9:3	0.625	3:8:2	0.272727273	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.8	2:7:1	1	2:7	0.012715856	0.298412698	0.003794573
65	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.53877551	3:10:3	0.769230769	3:9:3	0.625	3:8:2	0.727272727	3:7:2	0.1	3*:7:1	1	2:7:1	1	2:7	0.004709576	0.298412698	0.001405397
66	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.53877551	3:10:3	0.769230769	3:9:3	0.625	3:8:2	0.727272727	3:7:2	0.9	3:7:1	0.3	2:7:1	1	2:7	0.012715856	0.298412698	0.003794573
67	4:12:4	0.25	3:12:4	0.53877551	3:10:3	0.769230769	3:9:3	0.625	3:8:2	0.727272727	3:7:2	0.9	3:7:1	0.7	3:6:1	1	3:6	0.02967033	0.114285714	0.003390895
68	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.057142857	2:11:3	0.153846154	1:11:3	0.083333333	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000549451	1	0.000549451
69	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.057142857	2:11:3	0.153846154	1:11:3	0.152777778	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.001007326	1	0.001007326
70	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.057142857	2:11:3	0.153846154	1:11:3	0.763888889	1:10:2	0.090909091	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000457875	1	0.000457875
71	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.057142857	2:11:3	0.153846154	1:11:3	0.763888889	1:10:2	0.909090909	1:9:2	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000457875	1	0.000457875
72	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.057142857	2:11:3	0.153846154	1:11:3	0.763888889	1:10:2	0.909090909	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000412088	1	0.000412088
73	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.057142857	2:11:3	0.153846154	1:11:3	0.763888889	1:10:2	0.909090909	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.9	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.003708791	0.593650794	0.002201727
74	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.057142857	2:11:3	0.846153846	2:10:3	0.166666667	1:10:2	0.090909091	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000549451	1	0.000549451
75	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.057142857	2:11:3	0.846153846	2:10:3	0.166666667	1:10:2	0.909090909	1:9:2	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000549451	1	0.000549451
76	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.057142857	2:11:3	0.846153846	2:10:3	0.166666667	1:10:2	0.909090909	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000494505	1	0.000494505
77	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.057142857	2:11:3	0.846153846	2:10:3	0.166666667	1:10:2	0.909090909	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.9	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.004450549	0.593650794	0.002642072
78	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.057142857	2:11:3	0.846153846	2:10:3	0.138888889	2*:9:2	1	1:9:2	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000503663	1	0.000503663
79	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.057142857	2:11:3	0.846153846	2:10:3	0.138888889	2*:9:2	1	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000453297	1	0.000453297
80	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.057142857	2:11:3	0.846153846	2:10:3	0.138888889	2*:9:2	1	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.9	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.00407967	0.593650794	0.0024219
81	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.057142857	2:11:3	0.846153846	2:10:3	0.694444444	2:9:2	0.181818182	1:9:2	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000457875	1	0.000457875
82	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.057142857	2:11:3	0.846153846	2:10:3	0.694444444	2:9:2	0.181818182	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000412088	1	0.000412088
83	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.057142857	2:11:3	0.846153846	2:10:3	0.694444444	2:9:2	0.181818182	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.9	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.003708791	0.593650794	0.002201727
84	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.057142857	2:11:3	0.846153846	2:10:3	0.694444444	2:9:2	0.818181818	2:8:2	0.1	2*:8:1	1	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.00206044	0.593650794	0.001223182
85	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.057142857	2:11:3	0.846153846	2:10:3	0.694444444	2:9:2	0.818181818	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.2	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.003708791	0.593650794	0.002201727
86	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.057142857	2:11:3	0.846153846	2:10:3	0.694444444	2:9:2	0.818181818	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.8	2:7:1	1	2:7	0.014835165	0.298412698	0.004427002
87	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.419047619	3:10:3	0.230769231	2:10:3	0.166666667	1:10:2	0.090909091	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.001098901	1	0.001098901
88	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.419047619	3:10:3	0.230769231	2:10:3	0.166666667	1:10:2	0.909090909	1:9:2	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.001098901	1	0.001098901
89	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.419047619	3:10:3	0.230769231	2:10:3	0.166666667	1:10:2	0.909090909	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000989011	1	0.000989011
90	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.419047619	3:10:3	0.230769231	2:10:3	0.166666667	1:10:2	0.909090909	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.9	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.008901099	0.593650794	0.005284144
91	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.419047619	3:10:3	0.230769231	2:10:3	0.138888889	2*:9:2	1	1:9:2	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.001007326	1	0.001007326
92	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.419047619	3:10:3	0.230769231	2:10:3	0.138888889	2*:9:2	1	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000906593	1	0.000906593
93	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.419047619	3:10:3	0.230769231	2:10:3	0.138888889	2*:9:2	1	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.9	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.008159341	0.593650794	0.004843799
94	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.419047619	3:10:3	0.230769231	2:10:3	0.694444444	2:9:2	0.181818182	1:9:2	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000915751	1	0.000915751
95	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.419047619	3:10:3	0.230769231	2:10:3	0.694444444	2:9:2	0.181818182	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000824176	1	0.000824176
96	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.419047619	3:10:3	0.230769231	2:10:3	0.694444444	2:9:2	0.181818182	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.9	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.007417582	0.593650794	0.004403454
97	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.419047619	3:10:3	0.230769231	2:10:3	0.694444444	2:9:2	0.818181818	2:8:2	0.1	2*:8:1	1	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.004120879	0.593650794	0.002446363
98	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.419047619	3:10:3	0.230769231	2:10:3	0.694444444	2:9:2	0.818181818	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.2	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.007417582	0.593650794	0.004403454
99	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.419047619	3:10:3	0.230769231	2:10:3	0.694444444	2:9:2	0.818181818	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.8	2:7:1	1	2:7	0.02967033	0.298412698	0.008854003
100	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.419047619	3:10:3	0.769230769	3:9:3	0.25	2:9:2	0.181818182	1:9:2	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.001098901	1	0.001098901
101	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.419047619	3:10:3	0.769230769	3:9:3	0.25	2:9:2	0.181818182	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000989011	1	0.000989011
102	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.419047619	3:10:3	0.769230769	3:9:3	0.25	2:9:2	0.181818182	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.9	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.008901099	0.593650794	0.005284144
103	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.419047619	3:10:3	0.769230769	3:9:3	0.25	2:9:2	0.818181818	2:8:2	0.1	2*:8:1	1	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.004945055	0.593650794	0.002935636
104	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.419047619	3:10:3	0.769230769	3:9:3	0.25	2:9:2	0.818181818	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.2	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.008901099	0.593650794	0.005284144
105	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.419047619	3:10:3	0.769230769	3:9:3	0.25	2:9:2	0.818181818	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.8	2:7:1	1	2:7	0.035604396	0.298412698	0.010624804
106	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.419047619	3:10:3	0.769230769	3:9:3	0.125	3*:8:2	1	2:8:2	0.1	2*:8:1	1	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.003021978	0.593650794	0.001794
107	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.419047619	3:10:3	0.769230769	3:9:3	0.125	3*:8:2	1	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.2	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.00543956	0.593650794	0.003229199
108	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.419047619	3:10:3	0.769230769	3:9:3	0.125	3*:8:2	1	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.8	2:7:1	1	2:7	0.021758242	0.298412698	0.006492936
109	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.419047619	3:10:3	0.769230769	3:9:3	0.625	3:8:2	0.272727273	2:8:2	0.1	2*:8:1	1	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.004120879	0.593650794	0.002446363
110	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.419047619	3:10:3	0.769230769	3:9:3	0.625	3:8:2	0.272727273	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.2	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.007417582	0.593650794	0.004403454
111	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.419047619	3:10:3	0.769230769	3:9:3	0.625	3:8:2	0.272727273	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.8	2:7:1	1	2:7	0.02967033	0.298412698	0.008854003
112	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.419047619	3:10:3	0.769230769	3:9:3	0.625	3:8:2	0.727272727	3:7:2	0.1	3*:7:1	1	2:7:1	1	2:7	0.010989011	0.298412698	0.00327926
113	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.419047619	3:10:3	0.769230769	3:9:3	0.625	3:8:2	0.727272727	3:7:2	0.9	3:7:1	0.3	2:7:1	1	2:7	0.02967033	0.298412698	0.008854003
114	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.419047619	3:10:3	0.769230769	3:9:3	0.625	3:8:2	0.727272727	3:7:2	0.9	3:7:1	0.7	3:6:1	1	3:6	0.069230769	0.114285714	0.007912088
115	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.074829932	4*:9:3	1	3:9:3	0.25	2:9:2	0.181818182	1:9:2	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000255102	1	0.000255102
116	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.074829932	4*:9:3	1	3:9:3	0.25	2:9:2	0.181818182	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000229592	1	0.000229592
117	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.074829932	4*:9:3	1	3:9:3	0.25	2:9:2	0.181818182	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.9	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.002066327	0.593650794	0.001226676
118	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.074829932	4*:9:3	1	3:9:3	0.25	2:9:2	0.818181818	2:8:2	0.1	2*:8:1	1	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.001147959	0.593650794	0.000681487
119	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.074829932	4*:9:3	1	3:9:3	0.25	2:9:2	0.818181818	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.2	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.002066327	0.593650794	0.001226676
120	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.074829932	4*:9:3	1	3:9:3	0.25	2:9:2	0.818181818	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.8	2:7:1	1	2:7	0.008265306	0.298412698	0.002466472
121	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.074829932	4*:9:3	1	3:9:3	0.125	3*:8:2	1	2:8:2	0.1	2*:8:1	1	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.000701531	0.593650794	0.000416464
122	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.074829932	4*:9:3	1	3:9:3	0.125	3*:8:2	1	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.2	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.001262755	0.593650794	0.000749636
123	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.074829932	4*:9:3	1	3:9:3	0.125	3*:8:2	1	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.8	2:7:1	1	2:7	0.00505102	0.298412698	0.001507289
124	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.074829932	4*:9:3	1	3:9:3	0.625	3:8:2	0.272727273	2:8:2	0.1	2*:8:1	1	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.000956633	0.593650794	0.000567906
125	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.074829932	4*:9:3	1	3:9:3	0.625	3:8:2	0.272727273	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.2	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.001721939	0.593650794	0.00102223
126	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.074829932	4*:9:3	1	3:9:3	0.625	3:8:2	0.272727273	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.8	2:7:1	1	2:7	0.006887755	0.298412698	0.002055394
127	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.074829932	4*:9:3	1	3:9:3	0.625	3:8:2	0.727272727	3:7:2	0.1	3*:7:1	1	2:7:1	1	2:7	0.00255102	0.298412698	0.000761257
128	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.074829932	4*:9:3	1	3:9:3	0.625	3:8:2	0.727272727	3:7:2	0.9	3:7:1	0.3	2:7:1	1	2:7	0.006887755	0.298412698	0.002055394
129	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.074829932	4*:9:3	1	3:9:3	0.625	3:8:2	0.727272727	3:7:2	0.9	3:7:1	0.7	3:6:1	1	3:6	0.016071429	0.114285714	0.001836735
130	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.448979592	4:9:3	0.307692308	3:9:3	0.25	2:9:2	0.181818182	1:9:2	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000470958	1	0.000470958
131	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.448979592	4:9:3	0.307692308	3:9:3	0.25	2:9:2	0.181818182	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.1	WIN	1	WIN	0.000423862	1	0.000423862
132	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.448979592	4:9:3	0.307692308	3:9:3	0.25	2:9:2	0.181818182	1:9:2	0.9	1:9:1	0.9	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.003814757	0.593650794	0.002264633
133	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.448979592	4:9:3	0.307692308	3:9:3	0.25	2:9:2	0.818181818	2:8:2	0.1	2*:8:1	1	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.002119309	0.593650794	0.00125813
134	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.448979592	4:9:3	0.307692308	3:9:3	0.25	2:9:2	0.818181818	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.2	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.003814757	0.593650794	0.002264633
135	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.448979592	4:9:3	0.307692308	3:9:3	0.25	2:9:2	0.818181818	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.8	2:7:1	1	2:7	0.015259027	0.298412698	0.004553487
136	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.448979592	4:9:3	0.307692308	3:9:3	0.125	3*:8:2	1	2:8:2	0.1	2*:8:1	1	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.001295133	0.593650794	0.000768857
137	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.448979592	4:9:3	0.307692308	3:9:3	0.125	3*:8:2	1	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.2	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.00233124	0.593650794	0.001383943
138	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.448979592	4:9:3	0.307692308	3:9:3	0.125	3*:8:2	1	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.8	2:7:1	1	2:7	0.009324961	0.298412698	0.002782687
139	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.448979592	4:9:3	0.307692308	3:9:3	0.625	3:8:2	0.272727273	2:8:2	0.1	2*:8:1	1	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.001766091	0.593650794	0.001048441
140	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.448979592	4:9:3	0.307692308	3:9:3	0.625	3:8:2	0.272727273	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.2	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.003178964	0.593650794	0.001887194
141	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.448979592	4:9:3	0.307692308	3:9:3	0.625	3:8:2	0.272727273	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.8	2:7:1	1	2:7	0.012715856	0.298412698	0.003794573
142	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.448979592	4:9:3	0.307692308	3:9:3	0.625	3:8:2	0.727272727	3:7:2	0.1	3*:7:1	1	2:7:1	1	2:7	0.004709576	0.298412698	0.001405397
143	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.448979592	4:9:3	0.307692308	3:9:3	0.625	3:8:2	0.727272727	3:7:2	0.9	3:7:1	0.3	2:7:1	1	2:7	0.012715856	0.298412698	0.003794573
144	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.448979592	4:9:3	0.307692308	3:9:3	0.625	3:8:2	0.727272727	3:7:2	0.9	3:7:1	0.7	3:6:1	1	3:6	0.02967033	0.114285714	0.003390895
145	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.448979592	4:9:3	0.692307692	4:8:3	0.333333333	3:8:2	0.272727273	2:8:2	0.1	2*:8:1	1	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.002119309	0.593650794	0.00125813
146	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.448979592	4:9:3	0.692307692	4:8:3	0.333333333	3:8:2	0.272727273	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.2	1:8:1	1	1:8	0.003814757	0.593650794	0.002264633
147	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.448979592	4:9:3	0.692307692	4:8:3	0.333333333	3:8:2	0.272727273	2:8:2	0.9	2:8:1	0.8	2:7:1	1	2:7	0.015259027	0.298412698	0.004553487
148	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.448979592	4:9:3	0.692307692	4:8:3	0.333333333	3:8:2	0.727272727	3:7:2	0.1	3*:7:1	1	2:7:1	1	2:7	0.005651491	0.298412698	0.001686477
149	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.448979592	4:9:3	0.692307692	4:8:3	0.333333333	3:8:2	0.727272727	3:7:2	0.9	3:7:1	0.3	2:7:1	1	2:7	0.015259027	0.298412698	0.004553487
150	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.448979592	4:9:3	0.692307692	4:8:3	0.333333333	3:8:2	0.727272727	3:7:2	0.9	3:7:1	0.7	3:6:1	1	3:6	0.035604396	0.114285714	0.004069074
151	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.448979592	4:9:3	0.692307692	4:8:3	0.111111111	4*:7:2	1	3:7:2	0.1	3*:7:1	1	2:7:1	1	2:7	0.002590267	0.298412698	0.000772969
152	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.448979592	4:9:3	0.692307692	4:8:3	0.111111111	4*:7:2	1	3:7:2	0.9	3:7:1	0.3	2:7:1	1	2:7	0.006993721	0.298412698	0.002087015
153	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.448979592	4:9:3	0.692307692	4:8:3	0.111111111	4*:7:2	1	3:7:2	0.9	3:7:1	0.7	3:6:1	1	3:6	0.016318681	0.114285714	0.001864992
154	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.448979592	4:9:3	0.692307692	4:8:3	0.555555556	4:7:2	0.363636364	3:7:2	0.1	3*:7:1	1	2:7:1	1	2:7	0.004709576	0.298412698	0.001405397
155	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.448979592	4:9:3	0.692307692	4:8:3	0.555555556	4:7:2	0.363636364	3:7:2	0.9	3:7:1	0.3	2:7:1	1	2:7	0.012715856	0.298412698	0.003794573
156	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.448979592	4:9:3	0.692307692	4:8:3	0.555555556	4:7:2	0.363636364	3:7:2	0.9	3:7:1	0.7	3:6:1	1	3:6	0.02967033	0.114285714	0.003390895
157	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.448979592	4:9:3	0.692307692	4:8:3	0.555555556	4:7:2	0.636363636	4:6:2	0.1	4*:6:1	1	3:6:1	1	3:6	0.008241758	0.114285714	0.000941915
158	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.448979592	4:9:3	0.692307692	4:8:3	0.555555556	4:7:2	0.636363636	4:6:2	0.9	4:6:1	0.4	3:6:1	1	2:7	0.02967033	0.298412698	0.008854003
159	4:12:4	0.75	4:11:4	0.448979592	4:9:3	0.692307692	4:8:3	0.555555556	4:7:2	0.636363636	4:6:2	0.9	4:6:1	0.6	4:5:1	1	4:5	0.044505495	0.025396825	0.001130298
																		1		0.337102165

"What an arbitrary list." - Not really. Deliberately vague to see what reactions I would get to it, but even my gut has some underlying logic. It's a bit WIFOMish either way, but I felt at the time that if you were scum, SpyreX made the most sense as your scumbuddy; who would ever suspect that the two of you with your capital letters and your erratic play were both scum together? Like I said, the end of day 5 was icky. Otherwise, PokerFace was my clear top suspect, and I didn't like iamausername-Fate in large part because I'd had town reads on both of you and it would mean both PokerFace and SpyreX were town, which was unacceptable to my worldview.

"Mith is one that catches scum, strings them up, and nails the rest of the scumteam while they take their dying breaths." - Ah, another classic Crap Logic(tm) argument to pair with VV's "mith is still alive, OMG!".

I think I'm pretty good at catching scum in the end, but that doesn't mean my suspicions always pan out early in the game. (Treestump is a great example - after coming in as a replacement and an obvscum day 1 lynch, I managed to lead the town to four straight stumpings... but in the process found enough - 2 - players I was certain were innocent to ensure the scum were caught by process of elimination.)

It's not even a good argument in this game, though. Let's go through the lynches...

Day 1: I was on Hoopla pretty much all day, trying to provoke responses and get more solid read on her... and I did get a more solid (scum) read on her, because she gave up half way through and decided to play Jester and draw the Janitor out.

Day 2: I was on DGB most of the day, until the zoraster lynch looked inevitable. Then I moved there because zoraster's play was terrible. (zoraster: "Simple explanation: I'm an idiot.") Then I moved back to DGB, and DGB moved to me, and at one point the vote count was zoraster 4, DGB 3, mith 3... why would DGB and I do this if we were scum together? (Hint: It doesn't make sense as bussing, because confirmed innocent Kmd was convinced at that point that we were scum together, and lynching one of us would have just made him push harder for the other!) Then I switched back to zoraster because I ran out of time to lynch DGB.

Day 3: DGB all day. I made a strong argument for why her claim was fake, in a situation where people buying into that argument would have resulted in a DGB lynch without outing the Tracker (if I were scum with DGB and knew she was trying to out the Tracker, I wouldn't make that post).

Day 4: Initially Ellibereth, then switch to AdumbroDeus after catching an apparent contradiction in his defense. (AdumbroDeus: "Obviously I'm just going insane...").

Day 5: Initially HackerHuck after another apparent slip, then switched to oobascum. Was not voting at the end of the day, but I would have been voting for ooba had the day not ended prematurely.

So... two scum, two VIs, and a Jester. Plus I nailed the remaining scumgroup in my first post today. I'd say that's a pretty good job.

Nightkills:

scummith would never ever allow a no-kill N1. (But scummith would never have given the town two Vigs in the first place. Vigs rule out suspects and give the town extra kills.)

Herodotus was pretty obvious town; I would've killed him as scum.

Rhinox was pretty obvious Tracker; I would've killed him as scum.

I don't think I would have killed Kmd as scum; I would have been more concerned with neutralizing the second Vig, using both the kill and the block.

CTD was pretty obvious town; I would've killed him as scum, if I thought there was a chance he was the Vig.

"I want to have all the credit for a mithscum lynch, because then I will have enough political power to demand mith slap the SCUMMIES moderator and put me on the "Best New Player" like I have been nommed for SEVERAL TIMES, and fucking QUALIFY for." - Sucks to be you, then. If I am lynched, the blame for the town's loss will fall entirely on you; I, Plumegranate, and iamausername all correctly named the remaining scum, and even if you were 100% certain I'm scum, correct play was to stay hidden and shoot me tonight.

Fate · Post Post #2066 (ISO) » Tue Oct 26, 2010 8:01 am

Still at work, mith apparently saw CCing as not viable, his defense post is a whole lot of ~NOT ME- and not why sprex is scum. His backpedaling fromzomgslip to -oh I thought you were vig all along- is also terribad

Fate · Post Post #2067 (ISO) » Tue Oct 26, 2010 8:06 am

Correct play was to get you dead cause scum has likely narrowed the vig down to me anyway, and prob stiill has rbshots left such that I would die and be unable to kill or get you lynched

SpyreX · Post Post #2068 (ISO) » Tue Oct 26, 2010 8:12 am

Ohhhh beautiful.

PF wrote:just so you know. I won't discuss how I feel about the claim until everyone else checks in and I'm all caught up on things

Mith wrote:I'm not going to counter-claim, whatever my role is, because I think Fate is trying to out the real Vig, and I'd rather have two chances to figure out whether his buddy is PokerFace or SpyreX than just one.

AHhhh, nothing like watching the setup.

IAUN wrote:For one, there is no way a vanilla townie would propose lynching an uncountered vig claim when it is 100% confirmed that we have a vig, and lynching that vig today would result in an immediate town loss, so mith may as well just go ahead and counterclaim.

And then the failure.

mith wrote: PokerFace is the more likely Roleblocker, with the SpyreX-Janitor link Fate pointed out earlier, so I'm voting that way in hopes of getting an extra shot despite Fate's ill-timed claim.

(Given that Fate thinks it's SpyreX/mith, that's probably just going to confirm his suspicions, but there's not much I can do about that with my vote. I'll respond to his post later, have to run an errand now.)

VOTE: PokerFace

and then the bus.

----
And, because I have to:

mith wrote: SpyreX: "You're saying 1942 (which sure wasn't there in the 'icky' post)" - "That whole sequence from 1938 to 1944 is icky." Er... last I checked 1942 was in the sequence from 1938 to 1944.

As for the rest, the thinking is that if you were town and thought they were both scum, you wouldn't move away from the one you thought was the Roleblocker, because a dead Roleblocker = increased likelihood of an extra shot gained through the Vig shooting twice. Even with HH/ooba both being scum, there would be one scum left, and lynching HH first means that if ooba really is the Roleblocker he has a chance to block the Vig that night (and after we lynch ooba, we only have two chances to hit the last scum, rather than the three we have if ooba is lynched, HH is Vig'd, and the scum don't kill the Vig).

No. You went "

1938 to 1944

is icky" Not, "1942 isn't something a town would do".

Of course, with coming out trying to appease Fate and CTD dead when asked its gotta be that (what happened to the goad?) when pressed it has to be quantified.

(We're not going to get into the fact you didn't comment on it and went after Fate when it sure looked like Fate was prepping up a storm on me)

So, would I swing at the one I didn't think was RB? Hell yes. Not, for any small measure, because I sure as hell could be wrong about which is the RB. And, IF I was right hopefully that'd spur getting shot in the face leaving Fate to clean up the mess. If they're both scum its game over.

ISO · Post Post #2069 (ISO) » Tue Oct 26, 2010 8:48 am

Fate: Correct play isn't to get me dead,

because I'm not scum

. As for claiming, I doubt they had it narrowed down all the way to you, but I guess I can see you thinking it likely; "Fate is a moron" withdrawn on that count (but still your fault if we lose).

Why would scummith find CCing not viable? More WIFOM/"NOT ME", but I would have no hesitation about going head-to-head with you.

Why SpyreX is scum: The main thing from my point of view is process of elimination. I'm not, Plumegranate isn't, you aren't, iamausername isn't... that leaves SpyreX and PokerFace.

But from a outside point of view:

Hoopla: "I'm slightly suspicious of SpyreX's vote too. He uses a weak justifcation like 'I'm avoiding questions', well after this had been an established fact. This was not a new thing I was doing - I'd been called on this before much earlier in the game. It looks to me as if SpyreX is searching for something to use to jump on my wagon at that particular time. Especially worrying when you consider he acknowledges he has other higher suspects, which seems to serve an out, as if he is slightly less responsible for a townie death, because it wasn't his first choice. Honestly, I think it was a little early for compromises, but I know Spy is like me, in the sense he likes to get things done nice and quick. Still, slightly suspicious."

mith: "(Strongest agreements, in case I am killed: Elmo, VasudeVa, and zoraster are probably town; DGB, Herodotus, and SpyreX are suspect.)" - That's 3/3 on town, 2/3 on scum. (And 2/4 in my initial suspicions, with DGB and MME; I should stick with my day 1 reads, I guess.)

Rhinox: "If we're going to lynch based on the "VV is town" assumption, spyrex is a much better lynch. He hasn't really been too assertive in pushing the lynch which tells me he wants it to happen but he doesn't want to lead the charge. He also would have been all over my wagon in a heartbeat had anyone decided to go that route, based on comments from yesterday and my opposition to the VV lynch. Spy actually hasn't been scumhunting much at all. He's made some suggestions especially during D1, but he's been unwilling to follow them up with votes. His vote was on VV yesterday until he switched to the other easy lynch in hoopla, and has done nothing but camp on his VV vote today. He strikes me as not wanting to stick his neck out and lead this game, and town-spy loves to lead IME."

The initial reaction to Kmd's day 2 info (joining DGB in the "why aren't we blindly following the Tracker?" campaign, later backing off when no one else joined).

The end-of-day-5 hammer, but more generally the fact that he went VV/HH every single day (without doing much to convince people they were scum, other than "OMG WHY ISN'T HE DEAD?" type posts), yet jumping to another wagon each time, often for unclear or scummy reasons (the Hoopla lynch, discussed above; the move to Elmo day 2, zoraster later but with the deadline and zoraster's play I can't find fault with that; day 3 bussing with little reasoning; the switch to AdumbroDeus makes

no

sense from townSpyreX, given that HH was ahead at that point - pure "hey, look, a free mislynch, nomnomnom", he has no town reason to move from the lynch he has been pushing for four days just on Fate's say-so; and then the switch to ooba for distancing plus switch back for the hammer which wins the game if the Vig keeps shooting innocents).

I think that just about sums it up.

Why PokerFace is scum: Read the end of day 3. Then read day 5. There's not much content from that playerslot, but what's there is obvscum.

ISO · Post Post #2070 (ISO) » Tue Oct 26, 2010 8:53 am

SpyreX: When I say "1938 to 1944", in a context of "SpyreX looks worst", I'm obviously talking there about posts made by SpyreX in 1938-1944 (1942 and the hammer that follows in 1944).

Huh? I was "trying to appease Fate"... but "went after Fate when it sure looked like Fate was prepping up a storm on me"? That doesn't compute.

"So, would I swing at the one I didn't think was RB? Hell yes. Not, for any small measure, because I sure as hell could be wrong about which is the RB." <- "If I were town, I would think PokerFace is the better lynch, but with Fate going after mith, hell yeah I'll take a mislynch for the win! Now how can I justify that..."

Fate · Post Post #2071 (ISO) » Tue Oct 26, 2010 9:07 am

Well well well look who started showing up more

SpyreX · Post Post #2072 (ISO) » Tue Oct 26, 2010 9:09 am

SpyreX: When I say "1938 to 1944", in a context of "SpyreX looks worst", I'm obviously talking there about posts made by SpyreX in 1938-1944 (1942 and the hammer that follows in 1944).

Sure, if thats all you said:

That whole sequence
from 1938 to 1944 is icky. SpyreX looks worst,
but I don't like that Fate goaded him into switching
. On the other hand, what does scumFate gain from going so hard after scumooba? Maybe he thought HH would go down anyway (which is what happened, but it didn't seem likely until the very end; if HH had voted ooba instead of throwing himself on his sword in an endgame maybe we lynch ooba and go some way toward clearing HH).

Pretty sure I didn't post over myself and that initial "this is icky" relates to both of us.

Huh? I was "trying to appease Fate"... but "went after Fate when it sure looked like Fate was prepping up a storm on me"? That doesn't compute.

You're right. It sure doesn't:

Fate: 1955, "I begged and BEGGGGGGGED for a goddman Ooba hammer yesterday, it never came. He was at L-2, HH was at L-1. SO WHAT THE FUCK WHY NOT?" - This is nonsense. The ooba hammer "never" came because we were waiting on a CTD catchup; a mere 38 minutes passed between the completion of that catchup and your "JUST FOR KICKS?" post. At the time, ooba was at L-2, but I had made clear that I was waiting on CTD and would put my vote back on that night - effectively, they were tied, with HH as the deciding vote. Further, while HH was at L-1, you apparently weren't aware of that when you made the post ("Holy shit HH IS at L-2.").

You aren't currently my top suspect; but the sudden switch from "oobascum oobascum oobascum HAMMAR OMG" to "hey, let's just lynch HH, teehee" smells. No amount of yelling is going to prevent me from looking carefully at your posts.

Well, that's makes some sense, at least. (Other than the "I knew VV/HH was town the whole damn time" part - that doesn't fit with your posts later in the day.)

I want to believe you're town (if you are), because it would make things so much easier. If we can hit the Roleblocker, or if they're out of blocks, or if they miss their block, we'd have three shots for three suspects. I'm just not there yet.

"So, would I swing at the one I didn't think was RB? Hell yes. Not, for any small measure, because I sure as hell could be wrong about which is the RB." <- "If I were town, I would think PokerFace is the better lynch, but with Fate going after mith, hell yeah I'll take a mislynch for the win! Now how can I justify that..."

Except for that whole I'll lynch PF part if it comes to it without hesitation sure.

ISO · Post Post #2073 (ISO) » Tue Oct 26, 2010 10:15 am

...yes, after I commented on your part in it, I commented on Fate's part. I then went into why scumFate doesn't necessarily make sense, and posted a scumlist with you in my top pairing while keeping an eye on Fate in case I was being fooled by his charm. I am well aware of what I posted. You're right, I didn't explicitly mention 1942 until later. Drats, you've caught me in a big fat... er... nothing, really.

Apparently quoting posts with no comment is how we explain what we're talking about, now? Trying to rule out Fate so that I can be confident in a town win != trying to appease Fate. And why would scummith go after Fate if he were gearing up to attack you? Me trying to figure Fate out makes sense, since I'm town. I guess if we were scum together it would make sense, but we both know that isn't the case. Otherwise? No.

[Never mind on the last part; I read that as "So would I swing at the one (mith) I didn't think was a RB (PokerFace)?" (which might as well be SpyreX claiming scum with PokerFace), since I do think PokerFace is the Roleblocker (but with JanitorX). If he's claiming to think I'm the Roleblocker, he's still lying scum, but that statement isn't strong evidence of anything.]

Fate · Post Post #2074 (ISO) » Tue Oct 26, 2010 10:30 am

HONEY IM HOMEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE.

Lemme go write some flavor and shit but DONT GO ANYWHERE