/Invitational 11: Pick your Poison 5 (Game Over)

[Patrick]

Top of Page Votecount

mith (1) -- Fate
PokerFace (1) -- mith

Not voting: Plumegranate, SpyreX, PokerFace, iamausername
6 alive, 4 to lynch.

[Fate]

A mafia member can't kill and use their night action on the same Night.

HEHEHAHHAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

WE DONT HAVE TO LYNCH THE RB TODAY, JUST SCUM.

FOLLOW ME ONTO MITH.

SPY I GOT YOUR VOTE, PLUMPOM'S TOO>

ALL THATS LEFT IS FOR PF TO BUS OR IAM TO SEE THE LIGHT.

KEKEKAKAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

[Fate]

I was in the middle of typing up an analysis of the possibilities remaining, but I had a "wait, what?" moment. I'll go ahead and post the analysis as well, but:

Fate, 2039: "2. I fear that if we lynch Spyscum today, and I die tonight,

the vig won't have the balls to shoot mith

and then mith will manipulate the rest of you sheeples away from himself tomorrow."

Fate, 2040: "I AM THE VIGILANTE."

---

Case 1: Fate is the Vigilante, and wins a Scummie for being the biggest idiot in the history of mafiascum. Seriously, what part of "a Vigilante kill tonight is a free kill for the town, the Vigilante needs to stay hidden and unblocked" didn't get through? If he's the Vigilante, believes he has fooled the scum, and believes I am one of the scum, he should have just shot me tonight; at least that would leave some hope of town pulling this out after I come up town.

If Fate is town, it's PokerFace/SpyreX (with a slight chance of other scum just playing an awesome game, in which case congrats in advance).

Case 2: Fate is scum, trying to out the real Vigilante, or even anticipate who the real Vigilante is so that when the real Vig counters he has a chance at a mislynch and instant-win.

PokerFace/Fate is more likely here, followed by SpyreX/Fate. If it were either of the others, there's no reason whatsoever for Fate to try to out the Vigilante, because the team wouldn't fear the extra kill.

PokerFace/Fate = PokerFace is headed toward a lynching, and is the Roleblocker. Early in the day, Fate is ok with getting me to rule him out as a possibility, because then the Vig kill and tomorrow's lynch drop on SpyreX and iamausername in some order and he wins. After iamausername's massive re-read and Plumegranate and I both expressing confidence in his innocence, Fate's fate (ha) is not so clear after a PokerFace lynch. On the other hand, if Fate pushes through a mislynch, win, and if he at least outs the real Vig he gives PokerFace a fighting chance.

SpyreX/Fate = The only reason to fake claim here is if the scum haven't narrowed down the possibile Vigilante candidates through previous blocks. If they've ruled out two of us, they let the PokerFace mislynch proceed and either PokerFace is the Vig, or after the mislynch they know who the Vig is and block that player for the win. Otherwise, they have either a 1/2 or 1/3 chance of blocking the Vig after a mislynch for the win, so a fake claim means he doesn't think he'd be able to push through a mislynch tomorrow if the Vig kill gets through, and he's confident enough that either [I'm the Vig and he can get a mislynch on me] or [PokerFace will be lynched instead of SpyreX tomorrow after Fate sacrifices himself to out the Vig] to beat those odds.

---

Between the slip and the "I don't think Fate is that much of an idiot", I think Fate is lying scum. I'm not going to counter-claim, whatever my role is, because I think Fate is trying to out the real Vig, and I'd rather have two chances to figure out whether his buddy is PokerFace or SpyreX than just one. (In the event that Fate guessed wrong and someone else is the Vig, up to you whether you think it's more important to be sure the Fate lynch goes through or stay hidden to shoot his scumbuddy in the face after we lynch him.)

VOTE: Fate

This post makes no sense if mith isn't counter-claiming me. If he had READ my post carefully he'd realize my "slip" was me just having fragmented my post. (I.e. at first, I wasn't planning on claiming so I put some WIFOMesque comments at the end of it with regard to the vig, but then ended up claiming without rewriting.) And furthermore, to

vote me

for it? Why would you ever vote a claimed last vig?

If you notice SpyreX didn't point out that slip, he went "aaah so I was right about Fatevig all along" and accepted it at face value. JUST like we both accepted DGB's claim when it was first made.

Mith's posts reeks more of him faking to try to be town, "whats that? a slip? Maybe Fate isn't the real vig and this is a gambit?" and him outlining all the possibilities, (never really saying WHAT he believes, just WHAT COULD be true, which is tech.)

Of course that "analysis" that was being typed out never came, because it was never being written.

[mith]

Huh. Good catch. In that case, it doesn't really matter. I'd rather not be lynched, but we'll still win unless iam or Plum are scum, and I'm confident they aren't. Just don't screw it up when I'm dead, Fate, and eat your crow when I turn up town.

FWIW, I missed the first post (explaining the fragmentation). I've already explained why I voted for you, thinking you were lying scum. (And the analysis was what followed after the break.)

[SpyreX]

Well butter my bread.

Unvote, Vote: Mith

[mith]

Ok, something about this game makes townies lose their minds.

It absolutely matters - we do still have to lynch scum. I'm not scum. I should not post so soon after going to the gym.

Fate: I won't blame you in the slightest if you shoot me tonight, but you need to lynch PokerFace or SpyreX. They are the scum.

[Fate]

Fate: There's a lot of confirmation bias here; you've basically started with the assumption I'm scum and tried to put motivation to all my actions in the game. Where applicable, I'll point out where you're wrong, either in your premises or in the belief that scummith would act as you suggest; otherwise, I'll give my actual pro-town motivation and thought process.

WHERE APPLICABLE? So only in the cases where you CAN spin a pro-town bias will you point it out? LOLSCUMZ.

Calling SpyreX scum but making no moves beside, "hey did anyone else see how scummy SpyreX is? Is it time to bus him?" - Or... mith is trying to figure out the game, and gives SpyreX a chance to explain an apparently scummy statement. His response follows in the next post, and was enough to rule out "slip" (even now that I am pretty much certain he is scum, mistypings like that happen to town - I've got a history of leaving off "n't" and ending up with "would" instead of "wouldn't").

SpyreX didn't explain his slip by saying he left off n't, what the hell?

"Mith's voting Zor RIGHT when his wagon was dying to get a claim." - Er... his wagon was dying? No. His wagon was at L-2 (had been L-1, but Herodotus moved to make sure we weren't neglecting other suspects), it was time for a claim. Had I not voted zoraster, I have little doubt someone else would have demanded a claim soon after - that wagon dissolved temporarily only because of Kmd's insane "mith couldn't believe that" case, not because of anything town zoraster did.

I have doubts. Your vote was critical as hell, Kmd saw it too.

The ooba stuff - I had a town read on ooba for much of the game, and I'm not big on "hai guys we're going to lynch this player without giving any reasoning". I saw a wagon pop up on someone I wasn't suspicious of, and wanted an explanation, both to see if there was something to it, and to get Papa Zito posting more substance to better read

him

.

And now WHY did you have that town read? Papa Zito DID have reasoning behind it, I had reasoning behind it, and ONLY WHEN that reasoning became overwhelming in favor of oobascum did you finally concede "ok we'll lynch ooba."

"The bolded comes a few ISO posts

[and two claims, a softclaim, a scum lynch, and a nightkill]

AFTER MITH SAYS:" - Fixed that for you.

That's not how I remember it, but fine. Scum adjust their strategy as the game goes on ALSO, town usually keep their reads for a good while until the slot tries to do something to change it. Ooba did NOTHING cept null-tell"low activity" card so your read should've stayed.

"First Ooba is #2 candidate, then he'd rather lynch ME over a nulltell lurker?" - ooba wasn't #2 candidate; ooba was second out of the three viable lynches day 3 (DGB, ooba, Plumegranate). Day 4, I look back and see Fate trying to push things away from DGB, then coming out with a vauge Ellibereth-town meta; in the moment, DGB/Ellibereth/Fate looked well worth considering.

Convoluted and I'm not following your TOWN thought process here.

Vague Ellie town meta? So at that time my strategy was defend BOTH my buddies? Is this really how you scumhunt as town? Doubtful.

"Notice mith's interactions with SpyreX occilate between setting him up for a bus and defending based on what the situation calls for. Definitely not consistent." - Or: mith is town and trying to figure out the game. As my suspicions change, my posts follow.

Yeah tomato tomahto, you're scum though.

"I also never noticed the point where he switched from me being more lynch worthy than Ooba to me making decent points on Ooba." - Ellibereth came up town, for one; to start the day, HH/Fate seemed quite possible. Then ooba posted, and I saw a strong HH/ooba link. Moving to ooba was about his posting day 5, not your argument; the argument of yours I found persuasive was the "ooba is scum regardless of HH's alignment" stuff based on that posting.

When did you make posts saying HH/Fate was possible? I remember you talking about HHscum until I heralded on Ooba enough for you to say "oh ok well HH+Ooba then"

"I already explained how useless this was." - It was admittedly subtle; I had spotted the apparent VV slip two days previous (see: 1410, "Note to self: 1328.") but with only one kill after the DGB lynch it looked like Elmo killed Herodotus and it couldn't be a slip (1684: "I have a hesitation on him - well, VasudeVa - similar to the one on PokerFace, however; I'm not ready to discuss yet since it involves speculation on the night results."). When it became clear that there were two Vigs, he jumped back to the top, but I wanted to avoid running him up, getting a fake Vig claim from him (which couldn't be ruled out by the slip) and outing the real Vig on counterclaim. Thus, the apparently useless statement - I was pretty confident that HH, being a top suspect from the previous day, could not make that statement if he were the Vig - so either he would claim Vig (no loss, since he would have been run up to a claim anyway, with the added benefit of a fake claim being extremely unlikely pre-wagon) or he wouldn't and I'd call him out on the slip, having ruled out the HH-Vig possibility.

If you saw some "night info awareness" and THEN there was only ONE KILL the next night, why the HELL would you "pause" until TWO VIGS became apparent, and THEN call out the slip? A TOWN train of though would've been "well fuck VV couldn't have made a vigslip, HE MUST BE SCUM." the night Rhinox died. But did you say this at all? NOPEEEEE. For reasons I mentioned earlier about you not wanting to have info until you SHOULD have had info.

Not reading your Code because I'm not going to meta-clear you regardless and I don't care about the numbers.

"What an arbitrary list." - Not really. Deliberately vague to see what reactions I would get to it, but even my gut has some underlying logic. It's a bit WIFOMish either way, but I felt at the time that if you were scum, SpyreX made the most sense as your scumbuddy; who would ever suspect that the two of you with your capital letters and your erratic play were both scum together? Like I said, the end of day 5 was icky. Otherwise, PokerFace was my clear top suspect, and I didn't like iamausername-Fate in large part because I'd had town reads on both of you and it would mean both PokerFace and SpyreX were town, which was unacceptable to my worldview.

"I did it for reactions" on DAY 6? Holy lol. Also, IFFFFFF I was scum being the key word, which means you have me BEING scum as #3 most likely, which is horse shit. Also the link to SpyreX being "WHO WOULDA THUNK IT??? TWO RAGING CAPS BUDDIES?" is the sort of case I'd expect from a Newbie VI to make, not from you mith.

"Mith is one that catches scum, strings them up, and nails the rest of the scumteam while they take their dying breaths." - Ah, another classic Crap Logic(tm) argument to pair with VV's "mith is still alive, OMG!".

Valid tell is valid and I'll be validated post game by the vivacious volume of very vocal town members. VENDETTA BITCH.

I think I'm pretty good at catching scum in the end, but that doesn't mean my suspicions always pan out early in the game. (Treestump is a great example - after coming in as a replacement and an obvscum day 1 lynch, I managed to lead the town to four straight stumpings... but in the process found enough - 2 - players I was certain were innocent to ensure the scum were caught by process of elimination.)

LOL SELF-META.

It's not even a good argument in this game, though. Let's go through the lynches...

Day 1: I was on Hoopla pretty much all day, trying to provoke responses and get more solid read on her... and I did get a more solid (scum) read on her, because she gave up half way through and decided to play Jester and draw the Janitor out.

K.

Day 2: I was on DGB most of the day, until the zoraster lynch looked inevitable. Then I moved there because zoraster's play was terrible. (zoraster: "Simple explanation: I'm an idiot.") Then I moved back to DGB, and DGB moved to me, and at one point the vote count was zoraster 4, DGB 3, mith 3... why would DGB and I do this if we were scum together? (Hint: It doesn't make sense as bussing, because confirmed innocent Kmd was convinced at that point that we were scum together, and lynching one of us would have just made him push harder for the other!) Then I switched back to zoraster because I ran out of time to lynch DGB.

So Zoraster's play was terrible but, OOBAKINS is town? Nope. Not at fucking all.

Day 3: DGB all day. I made a strong argument for why her claim was fake, in a situation where people buying into that argument would have resulted in a DGB lynch without outing the Tracker (if I were scum with DGB and knew she was trying to out the Tracker, I wouldn't make that post).

A strong argument that only DGBbuddies would be able to make cause they know she's scum. Kthx.

Also "I wouldn't make that post" lemme go check.

OH HAI. "I don't believe this claim... DGB's "woe is me, my lynch is inevitable, here let me post some crappy analysis so you can think of me when I'm gone" routine doesn't fit with having things to claim. Kmd's hinting was about as obvious as a bat to the face, so DGB sheeping that isn't much in the way of evidence. I don't think I've ever played as a Tracker, but my instinct there would be to track someone middle-of-the-pack, rather than a top suspect, and getting a "no-action" on said top suspect wouldn't cause me to completely back off that player.

Meh. We're letting scum off the hook, and in exchange it looks like we're lynching someone who has little chance of being scum. mith no likey.

I'm going to try to get back to sleep (I need to stop waking up at 4, it's annoying). I'll be back in a little while to re-read ooba and Plumegranate and figure out what to do. I'd rather just lynch scumDGB, though. We need a scum flip, and the ways we can "prove" she's lying all involve outing another power role or two.

"

HEHAHHAHAAAAAAAAAAA.

TOWN HAD NO REASON NOT TO BELIEVE HIS CLAIM AT THIS TIME.

Similar today where you don't believe my claim. You just wanted more credit and more "look wut I said to DGB!!!" later on, because you KNEW that DGB wouldn't have just been "lynched anyways" without a counter-claim.

Day 4: Initially Ellibereth, then switch to AdumbroDeus after catching an apparent contradiction in his defense. (AdumbroDeus: "Obviously I'm just going insane...").

Yes, both townies, and apparently you only have one sentence to say about your "pro-town" motivations this day.

Day 5: Initially HackerHuck after another apparent slip, then switched to oobascum. Was not voting at the end of the day, but I would have been voting for ooba had the day not ended prematurely.

Like I said this "slip" would've been outed by you D3 when it seemed we only had ONE VIG aka only ONE townie with Night info (Elmo) who was already dead.

So... two scum, two VIs, and a Jester. Plus I nailed the remaining scumgroup in my first post today. I'd say that's a pretty good job.

Nailed them? I thought it was just a gut ranking for "teh lulz" and reactions?
WHERES YOUR CASE ON SPY+POKERFACE.

OH TAHTS RIGHT>....

scummith would never ever allow a no-kill N1. (But scummith would never have given the town two Vigs in the first place. Vigs rule out suspects and give the town extra kills.)

Cool.

Herodotus was pretty obvious town; I would've killed him as scum.

Obligatory, "yeah I would've done that as scum" part of your list.

"Rhinox was pretty obvious Tracker; I would've killed him as scum.

I don't think I would have killed Kmd as scum; I would have been more concerned with neutralizing the second Vig, using both the kill and the block." YOU ALREADY THOUGHT YOU HAD NEUTRALIZED THE VIG DUE TO THE FUCKING NO KILL N3.

"CTD was pretty obvious town; I would've killed him as scum, if I thought there was a chance he was the Vig." MOST LIKELY HE IS THE PERSON YOU RB'D N3, AND HE ALSO NAILED YOU AS SCUM.

"I want to have all the credit for a mithscum lynch, because then I will have enough political power to demand mith slap the SCUMMIES moderator and put me on the "Best New Player" like I have been nommed for SEVERAL TIMES, and fucking QUALIFY for." - Sucks to be you, then. If I am lynched, the blame for the town's loss will fall entirely on you; I, Plumegranate, and iamausername all correctly named the remaining scum, and even if you were 100% certain I'm scum, correct play was to stay hidden and shoot me tonight.

<3 Appeal to Plum and Iam because they fell for DGB's distancing act and I need one of their votes to lynch you, s'all good.

NO HARD FEELINGS POST-GAME I HOPE EH MITH?

[Fate]

PokerFace is the more likely Roleblocker, with the SpyreX-Janitor link Fate pointed out earlier, so I'm voting that way in hopes of getting an extra shot despite Fate's ill-timed claim.

(Given that Fate thinks it's SpyreX/mith, that's probably just going to confirm his suspicions, but there's not much I can do about that with my vote. I'll respond to his post later, have to run an errand now.)

VOTE: PokerFace

HEHHAHAHAAAAAAAAA.

This one's a classic. I'm "a moron, the dumbest fucking vig ever with a stupid fucking early claim" but you AGREE with me on that Spyrex-Janitor Link?

WELL HERES NEWS FOR YOU:

1. I was just raving mad like the lunatic I am, I wasn't actually

serious

about that post equaling SpyJanitor
2. Given what I think, voting PokerFace only confirms to me last minute DISTANCIN act (by way of, "well I'm going down time to "mislynch" dive as hard as I can, which should pseudo-confirm PF when I flip scum)

[Fate]

And mith, don't respond to my wall and give the poor souls of this game more to read, BECAUSE AT THE END OF THE DAY:

One and ONLY one of SpyreX/PokerFace is scum. Leaning more toward PF (sorry Spy), but wouldn't be surprised if Spy just manipulated me coldly aagain (FUCK YOU SPY)

You are scum regardless. You are dying today. YOU ARE DYING TODAY.

[mith]

SpyreX wouldn't willingly go along with a mith lynch if we were scum together - it's a certain loss, with Fate's catch about the Roleblocker. PokerFace must be scum, even if you aren't sure whether it's me or SpyreX with him. Lynch PokerFace, shoot me if you need to, lynch SpyreX. Go.

Was in the middle of a response to Fate's post, but if you don't want one that's fine. Plumegranante and iamausername, if you'd like me to clarify anything, go for it. Apart from my momentary excitement thinking we were ok even if Fate managed to push a mislynch on me, I think I've been pretty clearly town.

[Fate]

"But if I don't want one its fine"

...?

LOL

YOU DO REALIZE IF YOU WERE TOWN AND WERE LYNCHED TODAY, BOTH SCUM WOULD BE ALIVE TONIGHT, AND ID BE RBD AND THE OTHER ONE WOULD KILL ME AND IT WOULD MEAN A TOWN LOSS? I think your "yay we'll be ok if we lynch me!" was a slip about you being scum because lynching you, there'd be only one scum left and we WOULD be ok.

You're right, SpyreX WOULDN'T vote you if he was scum with you. Which clears him from being scum. I'm not seeing the giant leap onto THEREFORE POKERFACE MUST BE SCUM. Because what I was telling you is that I am sure YOU are scum and not sure who with.

This statement is also tech:

NO ONE ELSE PUTS A VOTE ON MITH UNTIL EVERYONE IS ALL CAUGHT UP.

[SpyreX]

Its been a while since I've seen a Hail Mary of this magnitude.

[Fate]

You mean mithscum being caught out of literally nowhere?

<_<?

[SpyreX]

This is the only game I've played with him so, sure.

I meant this:

SpyreX wouldn't willingly go along with a mith lynch if we were scum together - it's a certain loss, with Fate's catch about the Roleblocker. PokerFace must be scum, even if you aren't sure whether it's me or SpyreX with him. Lynch PokerFace, shoot me if you need to, lynch SpyreX. Go.

[SpyreX]

Actually how does that work? PF scum means you shoot me and then somehow mith avoids lynch tomorrow?

AND YES ITS A WIN IN SPYREX-MITH SCUM LAND BUT NO.

[Fate]

Yeah I still can't make heads or tails of his train of thought there.

SpyreX you wanna know how I know you're town?

You stayed up late with me last night and actually refuted my points cleanly, (to be brutally honest, I actually felt bad making some of the points I made because my thoughts at the time were "wow I'm really just twisting his posts here a lot..." but I went through anyway due to timespent+reactions)

I'm sorry.

We cool bro?

[Fate]

Actually I think what mith is going for is:

"I CAN'T be scum with SpyreX, because he's voting me, and therefore PokerFace MUST be scum with me (from your POV) and scum with SpyreX (from my POV)"

All will be clear when the man HIMSELF posts, because he SURE AS HELL isn't going to get to be the hammer vote today.

[SpyreX]

Even when I want to strangle you we cool.

However, I'm gettin all tinfoil. But that means Mith/Iaun as the longshot.

[SpyreX]

Mmm doubleclick.

That still doesn't make sense though in the long run.

[mith]

Why would

I

be ok with you lynching me if I were scum? It's ironic that I thought something so idiotic after the way this game has gone, but that's all it was. But yes, I realized that me being lynched = town loss while I was shoot hoops outside.

SpyreX not being scum with me doesn't clear him from being scum. He's scum with PokerFace. I guess you can't completely rule out me being scum with iamausername or Plumegranate, so I guess it's not 100% certain from an outside point of view that PokerFace is scum. But from my point of view as a townie, PokerFace/SpyreX is the only remaining possibility.

[iamausername]

I still need to iso SpyreX and mith, but I'm pretty sure I want to lynch PokerFace today.

[Fate]

Its funny that you are so certain of that Combo-team today mith, when earlier you were all like "I WANT you [to claim vig] to be town Fate, but I DUN KNOWWWWWWWW"

You thought that because you realized "well fuck, once I'm lynched its lights out for my team. GG Town." You would be ok with it because what can you do about it? I'm the one with the gun and he final say. The LACK of flailing in this instance (the game depends on it) is TELLING. You weren't even frustrated when I told you "no STFU don't respond to my wall." You said "meh ok, I'll just shutup unless Pom/Iam wants me to talk." ???? WHY ARENT YOU DOING EVERYTHING IN YOUR POWER TO STOP THIS LYNCH?

YOU

STILL

HAVENT TOLD ME WHY POKER/SPY ARE SCUM ASIDE FROM "PoE Iam+Plum are obvtown+Im town lol" AND "You told me not to post" IS NOT A VIABLE RESPONSE FROM SOMEONE WHO THINKS MY PLAY IS TERRIBLE AND I AM A MORON.

You YOURSELF admit that it was scummy as hell with your "aside from basically claiming scum, I've been pretty clearly town this whole time yo."

[Fate]

I still need to iso SpyreX and mith, but I'm pretty sure I want to lynch PokerFace today.

GOD DAMN IT NO. I NEED YOUR VOTE.

YOU'RE REINFORCING THAT MITH/IAM LONGSHOT AND I DON'T LIKE IT.

HERE'S THE SKINNY:

SPYREX+MITH ARE BOTH DOWN FOR A POKERFACE LYNCH.

NEITHER SHOULD BE DOWN FOR BUSSING GIVEN MY VIG CLAIM+SCUM LYNCH TODAY=SCUMLOSS.

ONE OF SPYREX AND MITH ARE SCUM.

ERG0

NEITHER OF THEM SHOULD GET THEIR COVETED PF LYNCH.

[Fate]

Yes let's let CTD finish.

He will likly realize suspicion of mith is wrong after he gets to seeing the DGB wagon and lynch

I don't think he has gotten to that based on his analysis so far

I like how people are starting to see the Huck ooba pairing, granted there is some even I need to catch up on though.

Got to see if ooba better lynch than huck.

My access for weekend is getting better though not 100% so staying with that note in my sig. Gonna try to be caught up on monday at latest

Now THATS something for PF to focus on.. given that CTD had been making comments on EVERYTHING.

[Fate]

YES I realize I just made a mini-case on PokerFace but I'm EMPHASIZING the mith connections because I WANT MITH DEAD TODAY.