/Invitational 11: Pick your Poison 5 (Game Over)

[mith]

Fate: One of us is actually down for a PokerFace lynch. The other is saying "Oh, suuuure, I would lynch PokerFace" while barely containing his excitement about the possibility of a mislynch on me and a scum win.

(Btw, I think you've now ruled out SpyreX/mith

and

PokerFace/mith. That's progress.)

[Fate]

WUBAuHUDAUWBEUBAWHABDHAWBHAWB

RULE OUT SCHMULE OUT.

SPYREX WAITED UNTIL WE HAD MOD INFO THAT WE DIDN'T

NEED

TO LYNCH THE ROLEBLOCKER TODAY. HE COULD'VE VOTED MITH TEH SECOND AFTER I DID AND SAID "HOOORAAAAAAAH"

NICE DODGING THE REST OF MY POST THOUGH>

L
O
L

[SpyreX]

Yes I totally wont vote PF promise one million times.

I cant get over iaun tinfoil HELP ME FATE

[Fate]

SpyreX I SWEAR TO GOD

YOU TINFOILIN IAUN IS MAKING ME THINK YOU ARE TINFOILIN ME INTO SHOOTING POKERFACE TONIGHT,

AKA

3P ENDGAME: SPYREX, IAM, PLUM.

ARE YOU SETTING SHIT UP FOR THE FUTURE THAT WILL ONLY COME IN MITH/SPYSCUMUNIVERSE?

PAPA ZITO SCREAMED TOWN AT THE TOPS OF HIS LUNGS ALL OF D1. THEN IAM CAME IN A POSTED A COMPETENT CATCH-UP POST.

THESE THINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SAID BY ME. THEY NEED NOT BE SAID AGAIN.

[SpyreX]

THANK YOU

Here's where I'm coming from:

1.) I don't think they expected you to take a potentially game losing shot.
2.) I don't think they realized the RB rule.
3.) I don't buy the kill me / OHH WAIT as a mistake. It was planned.

So, today is a cluster.

3 is a lynch me over my partner move - with the hope that you shoot me JUST IN CASE.

But, the bus attempt makes it a Plum/Iam/PF endgame and HOW IN THE HELL does PF win that one?

I think I'm thinking too far out of the box

[Fate]

Like you said, they apparently had no idea I was the Vig AKA MY PLAYZ WORKED or that I'd be so reckless as to take ooba shot BOOM BOOM POW (whereas you, on the other hand, apparently caught me as vig back on D3 AND know I would do crazy shit), which has led to this day where forcing a SpyreX/PokerTeam was the only way, (with mith being the roleblocker) and mith blocking me tonight (he's got to have narrowed it down to me by now with Plum's claim and Iam's play, and the fact that VV was never vigged) For a COMBO ENDGAME-> SpyreX/Mith/Me/Iam of hoping that mithTown+Momentum of PF bus would carry out toward a SpyreX lynch for the win. BUT mith can't block+kill, so...
THEIR PLANS.

I HAVE FOILED THEM.

NOW MITH HAS TOSSED HIS HANDS UP IN A LAST DITCH (laughable really) ATTEMPT TO SLOW DOWN THE VICTORY TRAIN THAT HAS LEFT THE STATION. HIS POKERFACE VOTE LYNCH IS NO MORE THAN CROSSING HIS FINGERS AND HOPING A PF LYNCH WOULD MAKE ME CHANGE MY MIND TONIGHT AND SHOOT YOU SPYREX.

[Fate]

Mmm doubleclick.

^K Spyrex is 100% modconfirmed town.


I also see MITH AS STILL ONLINEZ but not posting which seals it for me.

As much as I want the glory, vigging mith tonight will be just as good.

And I really don't want to have to waste time trying to get Iaum over onto this righteous mith lynch.

Therefore I, AND ONLY, will be the one to hammer PokerFace should the time come and the winds be blowing.

[mith]

Fate: (2096) It's funny that I am so certain of PokerFace/SpyreX, after listing them as my top group in the first post of the day and then eventually ruling everyone else out as possible scum? Yeah, that's hilarous...

You seem to be suggesting that I thought you might be the Vig (and wanted you to claim, if so) but elsewhere that scum likely

knew

you were the Vig (in which case, if I were scum, I wouldn't care if you claimed or not, and I wouldn't have any motivation for questioning you). These things don't fit together.

"WHY ARENT YOU DOING EVERYTHING IN YOUR POWER TO STOP THIS LYNCH?" - I certainly haven't shut up, and I'm certainly trying to not get mislynched. But at the moment, it seems that you are stuck in confirmation-bias mode, and going back and forth with walls seems pointless if the other innocents don't need clarification on what I felt was clear in the first place.

"YOU STILL HAVENT TOLD ME WHY POKER/SPY ARE SCUM" - Er... yeah, I have. 2069.

---

SpyreX: (2104) You can't be seriously suggesting that if I were scum, Roleblocker or otherwise, I wouldn't know whether the Roleblocker could block and kill in the same night, can you?

[Fate]

ITT: mith feels no pressure at all from me, and is fully confident in his ability to avoid the lynch via manipulating PlumPom and Iam's faulty reads.

NOT SO FAST STAR FOX

[Plumegranate]

WHOAN OKAY WOW.

Fate, as weird as you made all of this, I love you for it, just saying (no one does this the way you do, you know). I wish I had more time/awakeness left in me to treat this, but given that I'm tired and all I'll preface this by saying I am not immediately sold on the idea of mith-scum because of the nature of DGB's interactions and behavior towards him as I remember them happening, but with your prompting I am very interested in giving this a better look through especially in comparison with the PokerFace lynch, which is where I was leaning before you went all Vig on everyone.

So Fate, I'm going to quiz you about the mith=scum thing and make sure it all lines up at the end, mmkay?

.... I mean I appreciate the effort put into seeing if there are mith/SpyreX connections but as you yourself are going back on the SoyreX being scum thing a bit

1. But here's my question - does mith REALLY dislike Vigs that much, or what? If there's an MD thread supporting this from a mith-theory point of view I'd certainly be interested. I'd also be

super-interested

in EV values for other sample distributions of the Town roles available for scum to give out. mith is obviously big on using that approach as the beginning of setup evaluation, so if there's a big difference between the EV of this setup and the EV of a few sample setups with no Vigs it might have relevance. If I wanted to kill myself right now I'd try to do it myself, but I value my health and sanity and I am already approaching bedtime.

2. If mith is scum, DGB's behavior at the end of Day 2 is simply bizarro.

Votecount

VasudeVa (2) -- Seraphim, ooba
ooba (1) -- Papa Zito
DrippingGoofball (3) -- Elmo, zoraster, mith
Seraphim (1) -- My Milked Eek
zoraster (4) -- ekiM, Plumegranate, Rhinox, SpyreX
Papa Zito (1) -- Herodotus
mith (3) -- VasudeVa, Kmd4390, DrippingGoofball

Not voting: Ellibereth, AdumbroDeus
17 alive, 9 to lynch.

Deadline: 11th of September, 6 am GMT

Maybe it's just me because it's where I realized that something was WRONG with DGB, but DGB switching off the Zoro wagon to jump like an opportunist on the mith wave
a) feels pretty damn opportunistic
b) why rock the boat on a Townie lynch with distancing/bussing which will cause you to stand out?

DGB still easily top suspect, but agree with Fate that ooba's response is scummy. Would vote him over Plumegranate (but that was already the case).

First Ooba is #2 candidate, then he'd rather lynch ME over a nulltell lurker? Mith clearly decided on having "read" ooba as careless town, and tried to stick consistently to that view except when I made damning points on ooba (and oh did I make them).

I'm almost certain mith meant he'd rather lynch ooba over me than you over ooba (that of the three wagons his preference was in order DGB>ooba>Plumegranate).

So. Following this I need to see mith's response to Fate's point about pinning VV as scum because he assumed about the Herod kill &c. and I need to look over DGB's actions towards mith. CTD's "cum-DGB gets bussed, that's pretty much a law of mafia. In my experience, it's hard to make sense of DGBs antics irregardless of her alignment unless you're scum with her. Hence why it's usually easier for her scum-buddies to see her scum-moves for what they are than it is for a townie" post might be right, but that still only tells us that mith can be scum despite his positions on DGB. I need to give a damn good check on vice-versa with DGB and ooba. ESPECIALLY ooba because he was really lazy which means his behavior towards his scumbuddies might've mimicked itself in a way easy enough to discern, so we can do a comparison of ooba's behavior towards DGB vs. ooba's behavior towards mith (and also with DGB).

Just on skimthrough from before (then I realized there'll be enough time to do that thoroughly later and I should see mith's reactions and such now):

Damn, DGB calling out mith as scummy Day 1 (while not freaking voting for half of Day 1? - but the time to kick myslef over lost scumhunting opportunities this isn't) and then remaining ambivalent and at-arms-length about it . . . doesn't look so good (though she also called out ooba as scummish based on this - would she distance from both of her buddies like that at once? It would be pretty low-risk in the short term, I suppose).

*offers hand to PlumPom*

Come up here ladies I hereby nominate you 2/3 of my Charlie's Angel's Town Squad of Awesome.

I love you too but I'm not putting on the ring until I make sure you have this right because I was not seeing this at all and I still remain - well, I'm not there yet, but I'm questioning heaps of things now, so let me let stuff sort, my dear Vig (and I'll officially forgive you for weird things like Vigging Elli whom you didn't think was scum? and not shooting ooba when we win this thing - for now it'll be unofficial but still).

^THIS IS PR DIRECTION PLAIN AND SIMPLE, AND GOT VIG ON VIG KILLING VIOLENCE TO OCCUR, BECAUSE HE KNEW THAT THE OTHER VIG INDEED SHOT TAJO (AS WAS SCUM'S PLANS WITH THEIR NOKILL) UNDER WHAT GUISE? WHO WOULD EVEN COME UP WITH THIS SORT OF PLAN AS TOWN?

Especially given the theory that scum no-killed Night 1. Huh.

The scum QT script made my day for sheer lulz.

AND GOOD LORD CONSIDERING WHAT HAPPENED YOU THINK SPYREX SCUM SAID YO LETS LYNCH A VIG THE OTHER SURE WONT SHOOT ME FOR IT JESUS.

Would depend on who the Vig would end up blaming if you did manage to lynch a claimed Vig so yeah.

That said, considering I'm on board with you about Mith we're going to have a frank talk about the series of events you bring up that flat don't make sense with me scum and you know it just rethink it good lord almighty:

1.) Why, WHY, would I have killed CTD? You say he suspected me but he only suspected me if I was right about VV. In fact, as scum I have even more reason to keep him alive BECAUSE of that.
2.) If the scum plan is two vigs for hilarity why in the name of everything would I want Elmo lynched considering a town flip is a giant red X on my skull?
3.) Considering D0, WHY would I ever let a D1 Jan go through? It was absolutely overvalued and WE BOTH KNOW that I would have milked that train forever.

So Spy agrees with mith=scum we know not why but counters some of the big ones with WIFOM-laced 'maybe him but not me'? It rings a bit 'you can suspect mith all you like but for the love of everything holy why would this implicate

meeee

? I saw you sorta recanted the SpyreX suspicions or whatever, Fate, and I'm not sure but you might've done that a little too quickly is all I'm saying.

<<Not countering

just so you know. I won't discuss how I feel about the claim until everyone else checks in and I'm all caught up on things

Translation: 'I'm here but I'm going to wait and see how everyone takes the claim and aftermath so I can adjust my reads and vote to go with the tide'?

Iam is still more shades of Town, not believing Fate at first out of belief that mith was soft CC-ing. Scum would know on Fate's claim that he was telling the truth and would be more inclined to let that color their reactions, so.

Hmmmm, mith regarding the apparent VV slip makes sense, especially given the note to self he made of the post well in advance. I am too tired to properly parse why I thought it indicated mith didn't have extra info but in any case he basically did seem to do the equivalent of 'this post rubs me the wrong way' back there. Also confirmation that Fate read something wrong which wouldn't have made sense from mith otherwise, but old news is old. I wish I were awake enough to understand Fate's response.

scummith would never ever allow a no-kill N1. (But scummith would never have given the town two Vigs in the first place. Vigs rule out suspects and give the town extra kills.)

Again, we really need to find out if this is likely or not to be true. If so, a scumteam of that makeup is relatively likely but not certain to follow mith's advice/lead on these sort of things.

I'm receiving clear internal and external signals that I need to go to sleep and this won't get much more productive, this post won't, not now.

But lemme get this straight. We lynch either scum today and neutralize the Roleblock either way - so that we won't have a scum kill without a prior or simultaneous Town-controlled kill, amirite? But if mith is Town, how is it okay again if we mislynch him? Okay, it isn't, but what motive has Town mith OR scum mith to say so? And how would mith make that sort of error at all? Wat.

Tomorrow I'll put it all together and make sure who makes sense as scum with what and lynch it.

[Fate]

because of the nature of DGB's interactions and behavior towards him as

I have to stop right here and say NO NO BAD PLUMPOM BAD! That's exactly what DGB's play is FOR. I've treated scumbuddies like this in the past and have gotten cleared/cleared them for it, its just no good. No good at all.

[Plumegranate]

Dammit Fate. I know bizarro behavior with someone else doesn't mean not-buddies, especially with DGB.

But I

do

want to have some look at DGB and ooba ISO in regards to mith. It's possible I won't find anything conclusive either way, but I might and I want to believe you but there's a part of me that wants to check your work on the mith=scum thing.

[Fate]

Your quiz doesn't ask much:

1. I don't really care how much mith likes or doesn't like vigs. I'm not going to have that clear him in anyway.

2. I already regarded the DGB situation, you clearing mith because of something ANOTHER player slot did (SCUM PLAYERSLOT) to him is weak and faulty and the #1 reasons scum win LyLos anyway.

3. I wish I could explain it better, but ONE- the PR direction in the form of ("Well if there are two vigs, the plan doesn't change much") when there was NO reason to assume two vigs given only two NKs... PLUS (no matter how well he faked being "townie" and "only having info as it comes" via breadcrumbing why that post rubbed him the wrong way or not) there was no reason for him not to point that out DAY FOUR as opposed to Day Five when it was 100% there were two vigs. In fact as I stated there is MORE town reason to point out that post that rubbed him the wrong way DAY FOUR when it looked to town as though only ONE vig. But scummith KNEW there were two and didn't want to come off as having too much too early, so he didn't say anything about it.

4. Re; Scumkill n1, it is entirely possible that scum killed Tajo as well. Especially since I'm over SpyreXscum and Tajo was a viable night kill. So mith's "ID NEVER LET MY TEAM DO THIS" maybe in fact true and irrelevant.

5. Re: Retracting SpyreXscum therefore I should look at mithscum more carefully. Mith was more first read, 100% he was scum. PF/SPyreX were the other two. I

incorrectly

marked MME down as town for his massclaim plan, only to be (rightfully) pointed out how a massclaim would have HURT town by SpyreX, and spent a whole night twisting SpyreX's posts and feeling dirty because of it. SpyreX has had his fair share of towntells, and I was just taking the rest and spinning it scummily.

MITH on the other hand has barely ANY towntells. Just because he's "textbook town" and has always well-reasoned and logical posts does NOT mean that if you go back, read them, and try to connect the dots you fail to see an actual pro-town agenda coursing through. Its more of a "k D1, make case on Hoopla." "D2 make case on ___" etc. etc. mith has gone through the game simply making WELL-REASONED and LOGICAL cases on townies and getting them lynched because of it (Hoopla, Zoraster, Adumbro, HH), which the scumagenda behind is VERY clear. His play is just so careful, is the best way to describe it. He HIMSELF mentions that he has been "Acting townie" except for his latest "lynch me s'all good"

Re: That last part. What does it matter? Why CANT mith make that sort of mistake? And I don't see mith making that sort of mistake as town-because it would mean losing the game-he'd have his facts straight about the possible Night outcomes (aka mithtown lynched, Vig roleblocked=gg) instead of for some reason thinking that if we mislynched we'd still come through with a win. THE ONLY WAY I see him thinking this is if he was trying to get some last ditch "yeah my lynch is fine" through that towntell, but it BACKFIRED when he realized that his "mislynch" WOULDNT be fine.

But its moot cause he's scum.

[Fate]

Dammit Fate. I know bizarro behavior with someone else doesn't mean not-buddies, especially with DGB.

But I

do

want to have some look at DGB and ooba ISO in regards to mith. It's possible I won't find anything conclusive either way, but I might and I want to believe you but there's a part of me that wants to check your work on the mith=scum thing.

I'm sorry didd I keep you up?

Sowwwwwwy. Go to sleep girl we can talk about this in the morning <3

[PokerFace]

Wow didn't see that coming. I had written mith off as town because i thought he was vig that shot elli. He was only person to be suspecting elli back then so it made sence to me. i am surprised fate would kill elli but as no one is countering and shouldn't since if fate was not vig, the real vig should try to lynch blocker and shoot fate at night. or get himself killed at night as he lynches the janitor scum. Vig getting himself killed would out fate as liar. in general fate not todays lynch. And if Mith were town he should have thought this

I would never have killed CTD. Check any game where i was scum. Especially this one:
http://67.222.17.61/forum/viewtopic.php?t=8144
I kept The Jester and armlyx alive to endgame. If i am scum and someone thinks i am town i keep them alive forever. I kill those that suspect me and CTD didn't do that. I would have shot Plum or mith last night as scum as mith has suspected me and both Iam and Spyre X have said i looked town as a result of MME's play not making sence coming from scum whether it be MME ignorance or his pro mass claim they both called me townie at one point or another early in their posts for MME. So i would keep them alive indeed. Plum has not suspected me and yet has also not said anything good about me and as no one suspects plum that would indeed be kill i'd consider

Mith definatly seemed to be trying to counter and then held off. Town mith got no reason to try and look like a vig especially if he were a vig as i already gave best real vig strategy. And as I thought mith was vig and i can see why he thought he could pull off such a claim. Mith backed off and Iam seemed to catch this. Iam looks town as a result and as fate is not todays lynch and plum is town for logic i gave earlier scum must be mith and spyre X.

Fate, I'll nom you for scummy after this if its what you want and town wins this. Just tell me what award in particular and you got my support

Note i actually don't think scum no killed night 1. I think they must have killed same player one of vigs killed i mean seriously scum would always shoot to get victory sooner over causing confusing among vigs which ultimatly makes their job take longer. Mithscum saw only one kill two kills instead of three next morning and saw KMD caught elmo vig and figured now was time to direct vig. I doubt he would no kill and plan far ahead he most likly just improvised

Also Fate i got no problem with you shooting me or spyreX tonight. As mith likly blocker and spyreX likly janiotr you win game by killing spyrex or you give plum and iam easy win tomorrow as spyrex obv choice with me vidged at night.

You online Fate? any reason you want me to hold my vote and or wait for plum or i am on anything. If not I'm down for lynching mith.

[Fate]

YEAH IM ONLINE AND YOURE THE MAN OF THE HOUR BABY

[PokerFace]

i take it you don't want me to wait then

Vote: Mith

if you wrong though i retract noming you for anything.

[Fate]

Oh lord that post is HILARIOUS.

besides your NORMAL train wreck of posting style to read, you go from

"fate may not be vig real vig should not counter"

"i am not scum because ctd died"

"fate ill nom you for scummy if town wins"

"fate mith is scum ill vote him you ready? he scum with spyrex for sure"

Why are you down for lynching mith so quickly?

Isn't SpyreX's vote making you hold back? If SpyreX+Mith are scum they lose if one of them are lynched today, so surely it isn't this easy.

[Fate]

i take it you don't want me to wait then

Vote: Mith

if you wrong though i retract noming you for anything.

Poker what I'd do to live a day in your shoes and see the world as you do...

[SpyreX]

No he cant hold back. The only chance either side has is in threeway if you shoot wrong and they know it.

[Fate]

Mith's in no real danger of being quickhammered so your vote is fine where it is.

Though with that gem of a post it is going to be very interesting to see what others say about it.

OH HAI SPYREX YOU TOO?

What the fuck is PokerFace doing as either alignment? HALP

[SpyreX]

DONT YOU START DRINKING THE MAD JUICE LIKE I DID EARLIER.

Its the Hail Mary. The -only- shot with mith dead is you shooting ME tonight. So, he absolutely can't get your dander up BUT has the unfortunate issue of not making sense.

[Fate]

yeah but MITH would last a fuckton a lot longer in 3p than Poker...

WAIT IS THAT WHAT POKER IS DOING?

PLAYING THE JESTER?

NUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU!!!!!!!!!!

IM STAYIN THE COURSE ON MITH MY ARROW WILL BE TRUE

[SpyreX]

After today?

No way.

PF/Iaun/Plum has a better shot than Mith/Iaun/Plum

[Fate]

What the hell? YOU DID READ the last posts made by BOTH Iaun and Plum.

WHAT JUICE ARE YOU DRINKING?

I, (and maybe you), ALONE ARE THE ONES THAT BELIEVE IN MITHSCUM.