Last Will Mafia II (Over)

[Kmd4390]

Unvote, Vote Plum x2

to secure a lynch.

[Kmd4390]

By the way, yes, I know we don't need majority. I just want to lessen the chances of a tie and I realize Batt isn't being lynched.

[LlamaFluff]

End of Day Votecount

Plum (12) - Fishythefish, esuriospiritus, Battosuai, kunkstar7, Charlie, Locke Lamora, Rhinox, Jahudo
Battosuai (5) - Plum, Nachomamma8, kmd4390, holycon

Not Voting (6) - Ythan

Plum - Vanilla Townie - Lynched Day Six

kmd4390 has inherited Plums vote, brining his total to 3.
Deadline for night actions is Monday October 25th, 8PM PST

[LlamaFluff]

Fishythefish - Bodyguard - Died Night Six

His vote goes to Jahudo, bringing him up to five votes.

With 23 votes in play it takes 12 to lynch
Deadline for day seven is November 8th, 10PM PST

[Kmd4390]

So Jahudo was protected on the same night that there wasn't a kill. The fact that Fish died as a bodyguard and passed his vote to Jahudo means that there is a very good chance scum went after Jahudo again last night.

I won't be voting Jahudo any time soon.

[Locke Lamora]

First of all:

Vote: Charlie

I think his about-turn on Fishy was brought about by the fact that he contributed too much to be an easy lurker-lynch like Ani was. I think he's been obstructive and unhelpful, particularly with his Fishy-tunnelling, and his continual red panda obsession is a prime example of how he's filling up a lot of his posts with useless content. His bickering with Ythan has provided much of that too.

In the light of Plum and Fishy's flips, I was looking back over Chrono's posts and this one stuck out in particular:

Just off the cuff, at least 3 of {

Fishy

|

Plum

| Locke |

Batt

| Rhinox | Holycon} are probably scum. Rhinox has been bugging me for days, but I can't explain it. Locke and Holy just don't ring true.

So, from my perspective, the first 3 are town and I don't think Rhinox is scum unless there are two teams, based on when he voted Chrono. Through POE, I'd say Batt and Holy are by far the most likely to be Chrono's buddies from that list.

[Charlie]

This game is tedious and frustrating.

I think his about-turn on Fishy was brought about by the fact that he contributed too much to be an easy lurker-lynch like Ani was.

Not quite an about turn, and that was a mistake.

]I think he's been obstructive and unhelpful, particularly with his Fishy-tunnelling, and his continual red panda obsession is a prime example of how he's filling up a lot of his posts with useless content. His bickering with Ythan has provided much of that too.

I have nothing to offer but an apology for that, but does all this really warrant my lynch?

[Kmd4390]

After looking at locke's last post, one of batt, rhinox, or holy is definitely scum. Maybe two of them. Chro wouldn't leave all of his buddies off that list and locke wouldn't point it out as chros buddy.

[Jahudo]

I think we should massclaim today. If we're facing a single mafia it might only be 4-5 including Chrono (so not lylo in terms of players), but the voting power could already be more or swing really far tomorrow.

BTW, Fishy and Ani are awesome.

[Kmd4390]

Hmm. If Ythan is scum, 4-5 scum could definitely quicklynch soon. I'd support massclaim.

[Rhinox]

I don't know yet if I support a mass claim today.

In all likeliness, scum will not control 12 votes tomrrow unless ythan is scum

or

there are currently 5 living scum members, all vote transfers from today's lynch and tonights nk go to scum, and KMD and I are both scum. Thats a lot of conditions of which I know 1 is not true. So if ythan is not scum, mass claim can wait until tomorrow.

So, if I'm going to support a mass claim, I have to think that ythan is scum. Because mass claim isn't necessarily the best strategy unless ythan is scum. And if I'm that confident thinking ythan is scum enough to justify a mass claim, maybe I feel comfortable enough to lynch him without a mass claim anyways.

Does that make any sense?

In my head, its like saying, *hypothetical example* If player A is scum, its mylo, so we should no lynch. but in order to believe its mylo, you have to believe player A is scum, so you should lynch player A instead of no lynching. Conversly, if I don't believe player A is scum, then I don't believe its mylo, so I don't support no lynch. Just replace no lynch with mass claim.

Now, if ythan is not scum, we're not planning on lynching him, and we mass claim anyways, its not necessarily a bad thing, it just means we've done it at least 1 day too early. Not the end of the world. To justify doing that, though, I'd have to believe there was some other upside to mass claiming now. Or, at least, that there was no downside.

So I've got to think about all this for a while.


At this moment in time, Nacho, holy, batt, charlie, and ythan are all under my consideration for voting today.

[Nachomamma8]

Vote: Battousai

Resuming where I left off yesterday.

I wouldn't characterize it like that. His thought process looked fairly normal, from where he had a valid opinion in the beginning that transformed by thinking about other variables.

I'm inclined to disagree.

I don't see a valid thought process from ISO #13, where he asks SSBF to unvote Richard, to ISO #17 where he votes Richard himself. I especially don't see his thought process from ISO #16, where he says that he doesn't agree with the assumption that one of [Ythan, Richard] has to be scum and that Ythan is scummy for trying to paint it that way to ISO #17, where he says that a Richard lynch is optimal for information.

I'm not sure which 2 post banter you are talking about. I see a 2 post banter with Ythan, shortly after Batt's Richard vote, but that actually states he still thinks Ythan is scummy.

I'm referring the the banter that ends with Batt's ISO #26, where he says:

The question of whether Ythan is the lynch tomorrow is no. I find his actions today to be scummy, but his reactions to our little banter gave me a pro-town feel for him.

The counterwagon for animorph actually, but I think his vote there looked more like a placeholder without much confidence in it. Whether that was intentional or not, it doesn't feel like where he wanted to be voting at the time (Ythan).

Exactly. And I didn't see a motive for town Batt not voting where he wanted to in that situation; the best motive I could come up with was that he wanted some time to see town sentiment versus Ythan before attacking him again.

But we don't know Ythan's alignment for one thing

More evidence points to Ythan being town than Batt being town.

This according to who? And I think Fishy could count as a counter-wagon.

Charlie and Plum amount to a counterwagon...? First of all, if Plum were scum, I don't think she would mind bussing her partner back. Second of all, 2/23 votes isn't really a counterwagon in my book.

I'll elaborate on his reads on kmd in a minute.

[Kmd4390]

I assume Nacho is against massclaim and feels strongly enough about it to go completely against it by voting already?

[esuriospiritus]

I'm up for a massclaim. I'm a little paranoid about my reads after Plum's flip. I plan to re-read her at some point and see if I can glean any new insights, but this isn't the only game I'm in (lol alts) and I'm starting to suffer pretty bad mafia burnout due to [redacted ongoing talk here] so it might not be for a day or two.

In any case if we're going to mass-claim we ought to start soon, so we have more time to discuss the results.

[Locke Lamora]

Charlie: yes, it does warrant your lynch. There's a distinct absence of pro-town thinking underlying your posts. It's gone on to the point that I can't possibly see how a townie would think they're helping, but I could easily see how scum would think it was muddying the waters, making the game frustrating and difficult to read and blocking people from getting a read on you.

[Locke Lamora]

Oh, and I think we should only massclaim if we're sure there are no more protective roles out there.

[Battousai]

I'm for mass claim...

Vote: Kmd

same reasoning as before


I agree with Locke on Charlie. But scummy town is popular in this game.

[Kmd4390]

Why vote if you support massclaim?

[Battousai]

mass claim won't change my mind...

[kunkstar7]

Vote: Charlie.

With the Fishy flip being town it throws all of Day Five into a bad light. He offered nothing that day with the exception of "lynch fishy thx", and somehow managed to coast by on that. He provided no reasoning for such and somehow is expecting to weasel his way out of such a strong opinion with no backing.

I was going to do a VC analysis but I think the vote changes weird it out a little.

[Rhinox]

mass claim won't change my mind...

That doesn't make any sense. If mass claim won't change your mind, why do you support a mass claim? from a townies perspective, that should make mass claiming unneccessary.

[Nachomamma8]

Kmd, you're a good assumptionizer.

Batt's read of kmd, and to a lesser extent, his old read of Ythan, is scummy because of the way he goes about it. Everytime he makes a case on a suspect, he seems utterly convinced that he's attacking the Don Corelone of scum, and that the rest of the town is completely clueless to his target's scumminess (the last paragraph of ISO #81 is a pretty good example of this). What this accomplishes is weakening his case so no one bites, and he thus has a good place to park his vote while he tunnels for the majority of the day and essentially ignores everything that goes around him. His actual points are mostly reaching; in my opinion, the only valid point he has on kmd is that he's posting all of these VC analyses just to fluff-post, but this isn't that strong of a point coming from Batt, whose case on Ythan was essentially that, and that case was dropped with no explanation at all. As for the rest of his points...

Kmd is making town actions that result in scum benefits

...which in my mind, is essentially the definition of anti-town. Townie doing things that end up benefitting scum. Of course, I'm sure that's not what he meant, so I'm just throwing out this part.

wagon analysis that doesn't take into account reasons for voting

What wagon analysis DOES? Have you seen DGB or Ellibereth use wagon analysis before? It's extremely effective still; it's just a different style from your idea.

the fact he has me/ythan/rhinox as most likely scum but choose to focus on the person with 1 vote even though we are most likely near lylo

How is this a town action that benefits scum?

The fact that there wasn't a NK really tells me that the scum is almost out of town players to kill that give off a town vibe. If at least one of the scum falls into the category of "giving off a town vibe," lets call him Kmd, they can't kill him and they can't kill of one of the last townies that give off a town vibe as it would become suspicious later that "Kmd" is still alive and has multiple votes. To all of the town, I beg of you. Do not listen to those who defend Kmd's actions. They could be his partners trying to defend their most "townie" partner.

This is all crap. Even before Fishy's claim, this was still crap.

Really think. Is Kmd scum? You have to figure this out for yourself, don't allow others to influence the decision as they may have alterior motives. And when you do think about it, and you should, you will realize that Kmd is scum.

At this point, he's acting like there's some man behind the curtain who's blocking us from seeing kmd-scum; but who, other than plum (the person who were were wagoning, by the way), had been defending kmd and calling him the towniest of town?

[Charlie]

I have somwthing to say about these:

I think his about-turn on Fishy was brought about by the fact that he contributed too much to be an easy lurker-lynch like Ani was. I think he's been obstructive and unhelpful, particularly with his Fishy-tunnelling, and his continual red panda obsession is a prime example of how he's filling up a lot of his posts with useless content. His bickering with Ythan has provided much of that too.

With the Fishy flip being town it throws all of Day Five into a bad light. He offered nothing that day with the exception of "lynch fishy thx", and somehow managed to coast by on that. He provided no reasoning for such and somehow is expecting to weasel his way out of such a strong opinion with no backing.

I was going to do a VC analysis but I think the vote changes weird it out a little.

These are actually good but circumstantial evidence against myself. It sounds convincing but it fall short because of the slow nature of the game and feels more like a half-hearted attempt to scum hunt. This can only mean one of two things:
1) Town aligned players not trying hard enough
2) Mafia aligned players taking an easy target

Yeah, I've been thinking about this and at first glance, if I were not me, I would be voting me (yes, WIFOM, I know). Let's face it. Town is doing badly so far. I'm actually thinking of reversing my votes in hopes that something good would come of this. On the other hand, I've been wrong about so many things thus far therefore I should be correct about one thing? (Nacho is the only person left among my original suspects, all of whom flipped town...)

It is frustrating. And about mass claim: I'm neutral about it, doing it is fine, not doing it is also fine. I'm voting anyway.

VOTE: Nachomamma8

Some questions in light of my change of thought:

Kmd4390, you've said that I'm town so far. You've not mentioned much doubt about it except in this post. Now, Locke and kunkstar7 have provided some reasons that I'm not town, what do you make of this? Could you do a reevaluation so that I can get better insight on your line of thinking?

Batt & esuriospiritus, a while ago you've both made some comments on a votecount analysis (the spreadsheet). Any conclusions you've drawn on that? I feel there could be some info we're missing there.

Jahudo, based on Fishy's death N6, is it reasonable to believe that you're semi-confirmed town because he very likely used his claimed invented 1-shot doc protect on you, left his votes on you, and also probably protected you Night 6?

And back to a pet peeve I've been having: We're assuming a single mafia team of 5-6 members, all tagged as Colombian Mafia. This I find strange, even if it is just flavour. I recently just realized that Colombia is a South American country. Last Will Mafia I had flavour with Swiss Mafia and Egyptian Mafia, both European countries. Now, it seems we're in South America. I dunno, even for flavour, it seems very strange to have just 1 mafia team. 2 would fit, and to explain the lack of double kills (except for the 1-shot vig claimed by Ytahn) each night, there is either mafia shenannigans, too-good-to-be-true Town blocking, or setup related mechanics (even/odd night kills) going on.

Why I think so: a mafia team of 6 players means that they already control half of half of the votes needed to win (yes, 6 out of the required 12) at the beginning of the game. Furthermore, we've been through 4 mislynches and 5 Night related deaths with votes passing onto different people. At one point, Chronopie received 2 votes. I... ain't feeling the setup with this, people.

... I speculate on the setup too much. But if I'm right, that means we're looking at connections the wrong way. We should try looking in groups of 3, maybe?

[Battousai]

Rhinox- mass claim won't change

my

mind on

KMD

. It may help find other scum and it may help others find scum.

Charlie- Why now of all the days, do you start playing, well... better? Also, Egypt is an African nation, not European. I'll go back and look at that spreadsheet soon. Right now I'm at home using an outdated POS with even worse internet connection.

[Charlie]

Charlie- Why now of all the days, do you start playing, well... better?

Er, thanks I suppose.

Also, Egypt is an African nation, not European.

Oops! Geography fail.

I'll go back and look at that spreadsheet soon. Right now I'm at home using an outdated POS with even worse internet connection.

I'll do the same when I have maximum concentration and the time (hopefully my tomorrow).